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NCAA Championship game tonight


Gopher
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Figured I would start a thread for thoughts, predictions, commentary, etc. Personally, I'm really looking forward to tonight's game, for several reasons. First, there's the fact that UNC blew MSU out by 35 back on December 3rd... Two things stand out to me regarding that game. The first is that Michigan State turned the ball over 21 times to UNC's 9. UNC had an amazing 15 steals in that game, which was a major factor in turning the game into a blow-out. Secondly, MSU shot terribly in that game, from all distances... 34.8% from the field, 23.5% from 3-pt range, and 61.9% from the line. Conversely, UNC shot relatively well (47.9%, 31.6%, and 82.8% respectively). Those two sets of stats basically tell us two things, both of which are fairly obvious to me... MSU must protect the basketball and shoot better if they want to make a game of it tonight. What those stats DON'T tell us, in my opinion, is that UNC is a far superior team and MSU has no shot at keeping it close. In all other statistical categories, MSU was right in the mix... 39-40 in rebounding, 12-9 in offensive rebounding, 15-20 in assists (which is actually pretty impressive, considering they lost by 35), 7-7 in blocks, etc. In other words, the areas that they struggled in are arguably within their control... shooting and protecting the rock.

 

Another key to keep in mind is that there were a couple of players who didn't play in December's game. Goran Suton sat out for MSU, while Tyler Zeller didn't play for the Tarheels. Suton has obviously been a major factor in MSU's success in the tournament so far, while Zeller, although not a huge contributor statistically, is one of UNC's top big men off the bench. Another big guy for MSU, Draymond Green, only played six minutes in that game, which tells me that, without Suton as well, MSU played much smaller in that game four months ago.

 

Both teams are very deep... MSU has ten players who average two or more points per game, and typically play at least eleven players. UNC has nine guys who average at least a basket per contest, but it is interesting to note that only six players scored in their last game against Villanova. Of the two teams, UNC seems to be the slightly less likely to go deep into their bench tonight... They seem to have the depth if they need it, but have had games where they only went 7-8 players deep, where MSU has consistently gone to the 10th and 11th men on a regular basis. Does this mean that MSU has a depth advantage and should try to run with UNC and wear them down? I don't think so... More than anything, I think it's because UNC hasn't needed to go that deep, not because they can't.

 

Both teams are fairly similar and match up well in a few senses... Two excellent point guards who both must stay out of foul trouble for their teams to be successful, a lot of depth in the front-court on both squads, and some very good complimentary guards and wing players on both teams... Ellington and Green really stand out for UNC, while MSU has a bunch of guys who could stand out on any given night... Morgan, Summers, Walton, Roe, and Allen. I think that's what impresses me most about Michigan State... not their depth, necessarily, as much as their balance. It's one thing to go 10-11 deep, but it's another when you have literally 7-8 guys who could go for 15+ points on any given night. For UNC, on the other hand, it's truly impressive when you've got enough talent on your team that last years Player of the Year has arguably become a "role player" this year. They've got a couple of very talented big men in Davis and Thompson, a multi-dimensional star on both ends of the court in Danny Green, a great shooter/scorer in Ellington, as well as two super-stars in Hansbrough and Lawson.

 

Lawson and Lucas is the key match-in in this game, in my opinion. The first time they met, Lawson dominated the game on both ends... 21 points, 8 assists, and probably the most telling stat of all, 7 steals. Meanwhile, he held Lucas to just 2-10 shooting for the game. If Lucas is outplayed again by that margin tonight, MSU will lose by double-digits. If he can protect the ball, however, I think they can keep it close enough to make it an enjoyable game to watch, if nothing else. Tom Izzo undoubtedly will rotate his big men and MSU will be able to neutralize UNC's front-court on the boards. The back-court is where this game will be won.

 

On Saturday, I went a perfect 4/4 betting on the games... I parlayed both winners' money lines, did a 5-pt teaser that gave me MSU +9.5 and UNC -2, and also did two prop bets. The first was that neither MSU or UConn would lead by more than 13.5, and the second was on MSU's total points (65.5). I have to be careful tonight... I have a tendency to get a little over-confident after a nice night like Saturday, and place a few too many bets the following game. Here are a couple of prop bets that I like for tonight:

 

- Total 3-pt FG's made by both teams (11.5) - I like the over on this... In the first match-up, UNC made six while MSU made only four. But, like I said, MSU shot terribly in that game overall. In their past two tournament games, which I think is a much better gauge of how they're likely to do tonight, UNC has averaged 8 three-pointers (11 and 5), while MSU has averaged seven (6 and 8). I think 11.5 is a little bit too low of a number, and the odds are that there will be 12 or more. Even though this is a -155 bet, I think it's going to go over easily.

 

- Another bet that looks enticing is the number of total players to score in the game (15.5). Once again, I like the over, even though it is once again not as good as it looks on the surface, once you factor in the -160. MSU has had at least ten players score in their previous two games, while UNC has had 9, 8, and 6 players score in the last three games. One item of note... in the past two games, Bobby Fraser has gone scoreless. I think it's somewhat unlikely that he does so for a third game in a row, and like the odds of at least 16 players scoring in this game.

 

One other prop that I'm leaning towards, but not entirely sure about, is that neither team leads by more than 16.5 points at any point in the game. I think MSU, at full strength and obviously improved since December, should be able to keep it close, but UNC is scary explosive, and I'm not sure if I'll do this one or not.

 

As far as the outcome of the game itself, I am tempted to stay away from making a play on the outcome, the totals, and the line. If I absolutely HAD to pick something, I'd probably tease the Spartans and the over... A five-point teaser would give me MSU +12.5 and the total points going over 148.5. As much as I think that trying to run with UNC is not the best way for MSU to give themselves a shot in this game, I think it is almost inevitable that both teams get easily into the 70's in this game, with a very good chance that at least one of them gets 80+ points. I do like MSU's chances to keep it within single-digits... just not enough to make a significant wager on it.

 

Finally, I did place a small wager on the Final Four Most Outstanding Player being someone other than Lawson, Hansbrough, Lucas, or Suton (the odds of this bet were +300). Although I think there is a good chance that it will be one of the first three mentioned above (I think Suton played himself out of it in Saturday's game), I just like the odds, basically paying 3-to-1 if someone else wins it. The way I look at it, there is a decent chance that someone like Ellington, Green, Morgan, or even Summers comes up big tonight and wins the award. If I had to pick, though, I would say it will go to Lawson... I just can't help but like the +300 odds on someone else surfacing.

 

Final prediction: Back and forth game, with UNC leading the majority of the way, but somewhere in the 5-10 point range for the most part. I think MSU will try to establish a slower pace and control the flow of the game in an opposite way of how they controlled UConn. Against the Huskies, it was all about speeding things up and trying to score before Thabeet could set himself in the lane. I think tonight might be more about working the clock and making the Tarheels work on defense, controlling the boards on both ends of the court, and limiting turnovers. In the end, although I think MSU's game plan will be successful, I think UNC has the better point guard. With the ball in his hands, I like UNC's chances to pull out the victory and send Tyler Hansbrough out on a winning note.

 

UNC 80 MSU 77

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Just realized how long my original post became... :wacko:

 

Here's a summary of my plays on the game (I decided to put a small wager on MSU/Over):

 

Michigan St vs North Carolina - Total Number of Different Players to Score in the Game

Over 15.5 (-160)

 

Michigan St vs North Carolina - Total 3 Point Field Goals Made by BOTH Teams

Over 11.5 (-155)

 

Michigan St vs North Carolina - Over/Under Largest Lead of the Game

Under 16.5 (-150)

 

5 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

MichiganSt +12.5

Over 148.5

 

2009 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Final Four MOP - Odds to Win

Field - Any Other Player (Not Lawson, Hansbrough, Lucas, Suton)

+300

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UNC 83

MSU 67

 

MSU will hang in for the first 25-28 minutes, UNC will wear em down and wear em out to win by double digits.

 

Just too many options and with Lawson playing so well, too many offensive weapons and UNC will make em pay somewhere

 

I like MSU - and I would love nothing more than a close game to the wire, but I just don't see it happening

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UNC 83

MSU 67

 

MSU will hang in for the first 25-28 minutes, UNC will wear em down and wear em out to win by double digits.

 

Just too many options and with Lawson playing so well, too many offensive weapons and UNC will make em pay somewhere

 

I like MSU - and I would love nothing more than a close game to the wire, but I just don't see it happening

Yeah... My "prediction" might have a little bit of wishful thinking involved, I admit. I'd love to see a down-to-the-wire game, decided on the last shot, but would not be at all surprised if UNC pulls away in the 2nd half. On the other hand, if you asked me before the tournament which would be more impressive... a team beating Louisville and UConn handily, or a team beating Oklahoma and Villanova handily, I'd go with the first scenario. So, I guess what I'm saying is that everyone has counted MSU out the last two games, and they're probably gonna do it again tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if they surprise the masses for the third straight game. Not necessarily win, but keep it close.

 

I have been riding MSU in the betting dept so I'll stay the course. If UNC wins, though, I finish third in a pretty big pool (138 entries) so I'll take home some loot there. And if both happen, well........

 

:D

I'm in the same boat... betting on the Spartans, but I win my pool if UNC wins it all. If they lose tonight, I lose the pool by one point to a guy who picked Pitt to win it all. :wacko:

Edited by Gopher
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I'm taping the game, going to finish watching some opening day baseball, then fast-forward through hoops (skipping all of the commercials) later. So, probably no mid-game commentary from me... Here's to a close game, either way. :wacko:

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WOW!! Gopher is no joke with his posts about this stuff!! :wacko:

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Well that was a great game while it lasted.

 

No kidding! What a beaten this is! I say that UNC plays all their reserve players in the 2nd half to see if Michigan State can make it a game. Even if MSU can make a comeback which would be unbelievable at this point, UNC would have to go North Pole cold to lose this game.

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Tough to knock off 3 #1 seeds in a row.

 

Not to take anything away from UNC, because they played lights out and earned it, but this was a pretty dull tournament from a spectator's perspective. A handful of good games, but not a lot of memorable moments (except maybe Scottie Reynolds last second shot to knock out Pitt).

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Tough to knock off 3 #1 seeds in a row.

 

Not to take anything away from UNC, because they played lights out and earned it, but this was a pretty dull tournament from a spectator's perspective. A handful of good games, but not a lot of memorable moments (except maybe Scottie Reynolds last second shot to knock out Pitt).

 

congrats to unc. at least my arizona wildcats remain the only team to beat three #1 seeds and win it all. :wacko:

 

this was one of the least memorable tourneys in some time. not a single buzzer-beater (reynolds' shot was close, but pitt still had time on the clock). the siena and wisconsin OT games were good, but i live for those "did you see that?!" moments, and this tourney had, like, one. the title game was a complete yawner.

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Just realized how long my original post became... :D

 

Here's a summary of my plays on the game (I decided to put a small wager on MSU/Over):

 

Michigan St vs North Carolina - Total Number of Different Players to Score in the Game

Over 15.5 (-160)

 

Michigan St vs North Carolina - Total 3 Point Field Goals Made by BOTH Teams

Over 11.5 (-155)

 

Michigan St vs North Carolina - Over/Under Largest Lead of the Game

Under 16.5 (-150)

 

5 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

MichiganSt +12.5

Over 148.5

 

2009 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament Final Four MOP - Odds to Win

Field - Any Other Player (Not Lawson, Hansbrough, Lucas, Suton)

+300

Three for five, but the the last one actually put me ahead for the night... Funny, because I thought Lawson was a lock for MOP with 21/6 and eight steals. :D As it turns out, the two I lost were the ones I was pretty unsure of (the teaser with MSU staying within 12.5 and the one on the game staying within 16.5 points throughout).

 

Going into the game, I said that the PG play would dictate the outcome... I had no idea how true that would be. Lucas and the Spartans did a HORRIBLE job of protecting the ball, while Lawson played very well (although at least five of his eight steals were basically handed to him on a platter, so that was a little bit over-emphasized, in my opinion). Michigan State needed to play an almost perfect game in order to win, but it was the Tarheels that demonstrated perfection, at least for the first twenty minutes. MSU came out flat and careless, and never even gave themselves a chance. Too bad, because they actually showed in the second half that they could play with UNC. No excuses, though... UNC proved that they're the best team in the country, and it's really not even close.

 

Congrats to all of the Tarheel fans on this board... Winning a 5th NC and moving into a tie for third overall is huge, for sure. :D Plus, I win the pool that I was in. :D One thing is for sure... As good as Minnesota's recruiting class is for next year (and the fact that the Gophers didn't really lose anybody from this year), it's pretty scary that the Spartans basically return everybody from tonight's team, minus Walton and Ibok. :wacko:

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Funny thing. I sat down yesterday to write a post saying that this was the first game since basically the 1st round of the tourney that I was absolutely convinced UNC would win. Typed the whole thing out and thought, "If you post this thing, you're going to jinx them", and deleted the post. Glad I did. However, for all the talk about how this was not going to be a repeat of December's blowout, I was finding a hell of a time finding any tangible reason why it wouldn't be. Maybe not 35 pts, but something that was essentially over at half time.

 

(ETA: I should mention that I hate it when people come in after the fact and say they knew what was going to happen, so the lameness of the above paragraph is not lost on me)

 

We had a local radio guy who was on press row that insisted the crowd wouldn't be nearly the factor they were building them up to be simply because of the layout of the stadium. It was so big that the noise just went straight up. That, even during MSU's runs on Saturday, when the crowd was likely at it's loudest, you could have a normal conversation on press row without raising your voice at all.

 

Mostly though, this team was simply playing too well and that was putting far too much pressure on their opponents. You can get a good indication when you hear numerous times through the tourney and announcer excitedly yell, "AND THE LEAD IS DOWN TO NINE!". Great, you went on a 10-2 to cut it to nine, I hope you've got another... oh wait, it's 15 again. Nevermind. I think the fact that UNC found it's D was huge, but maybe just as important and barely mentioned was the fact that their offense just put teams under such enormous pressure to keep up that they started gripping. A team would get down by a half dozen and start thinking that every single shot was a must make shot and started forcing things.

 

And if they did put together a little run, UNC would just pull back away. After a point, they're just going to quit.

 

The thing that bothers me though, is all this talk about redemption. Like these guys had anything to prove to anyone. There's two reasons for this: One is the simple fact is that the manner the NCAA uses to crown it's basketball champ is fundamentally flawed in order to make the event more entertaining. After playing around 30 games, they should have a good enough idea of who should be playing for all the marbles that it shouldn't require a 64 team tourney to figure it out. I do think that UNC was the best team in the country, so it worked out that way this year. However, that isn't always the case. That's why, among those in the know, coaching careers are measured by final four trips, just so long as you can break through at least once or twice and win it all. None the less, just getting there is a feat.

 

Secondly, I think they were actually beaten by a better Kansas team than them last year. Plain and simple. Maybe not 24 pts better and I can easily see why that loss stuck in the minds of people because it was a freaking beat down. None the less, the way you'd hear people talk, you'd think last night's win came a year (or more) too late. In reality, the 2006 was overseeded as a 3, the 2007 overachieved all season until their youth caught up to them (let us not forget that the Wayne Ellington who choked on all those shots down the stretch v Georgetown was a Freshman), and the 2008 was simply among the best, but not the best team in the country.

 

This year they were the best team in the country, but again, the way it's set up, that doesn't assure anything. What this does, however, is place Tyler in a pantheon level among college b-ball players. A local sports guy made an apt comparison. Without the title, he's in league with JJ Reddick, with it, he's in league with Christian Laetner. As much as it pains me to use two Duke players for this, it's pretty spot on. I have no illusions that he's going to amount to much on the next level and Billay made a great point when he said that's why this team is so good now. Finally, the guy who's among the least talented on the floor is not our best player. Finally the guys who actually have futures in the NBA sacked up and made him what he should have been all along, a role player.

 

Oh, and Duke? Don't look now but Roy's got 2 titles in 5 years, owns you over the last few, and the pipeline of talent is not slowing down. It's gonna be like 2006, when you returned two All-Americans and UNC lost their entire starting 5, and you still didn't make up any ground.

Edited by detlef
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Awesome display. They looked like pros playing against a college team, bigger, faster and more athletic at almost every position.

 

Michigan State did a great job getting there but were simply overmatched.

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Oh, and Dook? Don't look now but Roy's got 2 titles in 5 years, owns you over the last few, and the pipeline of talent is not slowing down. It's gonna be like 2006, when you returned two All-Americans and UNC lost their entire starting 5, and you still didn't make up any ground.

 

:wacko::D:D

Edited by KSUChiefsTarheelFan
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Though I should have added, this time you're not returning two all americans and we're not losing our top 7 players.

"Seniors Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green have exhausted their eligibility, and juniors Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are expected to declare for the NBA draft. Still, even though its roster appears gutted, there’s a chance North Carolina could be back in the championship hunt a year from now.

 

Especially if the Tar Heels get John Wall.

 

Wall – the No. 1 recruit in the country according to Rivals.com – was thought to be leaning toward Memphis before coach John Calipari left two weeks ago to take the Kentucky job. Calipari is doing his best to lure Wall, a point guard, to Lexington, and there’s a strong chance that could happen.

 

Still, don’t be surprised if the Tar Heels fight their way into the mix.

 

Despite being a North Carolina native, Wall has never indicated that the Tar Heels were a serious contender in his recruitment. UNC’s staff tried to get involved with Wall earlier in the process and didn’t feel there was mutual interest.

 

That changed over the weekend, though, when North Carolina coach Roy Williams made another attempt at Wall, who is expected to announce his decision within the next few weeks. Williams took time from his hectic Final Four schedule to phone Wall from Detroit. Suddenly, North Carolina seems like a legitimate possibility for a player who is also considering Kansas and Baylor."

:wacko:

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"Seniors Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green have exhausted their eligibility, and juniors Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are expected to declare for the NBA draft. Still, even though its roster appears gutted, there’s a chance North Carolina could be back in the championship hunt a year from now.

 

Especially if the Tar Heels get John Wall.

 

Wall – the No. 1 recruit in the country according to Rivals.com – was thought to be leaning toward Memphis before coach John Calipari left two weeks ago to take the Kentucky job. Calipari is doing his best to lure Wall, a point guard, to Lexington, and there’s a strong chance that could happen.

 

Still, don’t be surprised if the Tar Heels fight their way into the mix.

 

Despite being a North Carolina native, Wall has never indicated that the Tar Heels were a serious contender in his recruitment. UNC’s staff tried to get involved with Wall earlier in the process and didn’t feel there was mutual interest.

 

That changed over the weekend, though, when North Carolina coach Roy Williams made another attempt at Wall, who is expected to announce his decision within the next few weeks. Williams took time from his hectic Final Four schedule to phone Wall from Detroit. Suddenly, North Carolina seems like a legitimate possibility for a player who is also considering Kansas and Baylor."

:wacko:

I've thought this could happen. We'll see. However, once Calipari jumped and I heard Roy lobbed him a call...

 

ETA, his "handler" is a total vinegary fresh loser and seems to have a grudge against UNC. He was rather outspoken in this regard in an interview last week but it was hard to see it as any more than him just being pissed that UNC didn't bite on other guys he tried to push on them.

Edited by detlef
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I've thought this could happen. We'll see. However, once Calipari jumped and I heard Roy lobbed him a call...

 

ETA, his "handler" is a total vinegary fresh loser and seems to have a grudge against UNC. He was rather outspoken in this regard in an interview last week but it was hard to see it as any more than him just being pissed that UNC didn't bite on other guys he tried to push on them.

I didn't really think that Roy was making a legitimate run at Wall. He's really not UNC's type of kid. IMO, I thought he was simply running interference on Duke a bit. To me, the real kicker for next year will be what Wayne Ellington decides to do. He wasn;t really being projected that highly in the draft earlier in the year (and I don;t think he would go being projected in the second round), but then he went and won MOP of the final 4, and I can only imagine that his draft stock has risen considerably. Based on what happened to the 2005 Tar Heels, nothing improves your draft stock like winning a national championship.

 

I suspect that Wayne will turn pro (and having already done it once, the rules do not allow him to "test the waters" again), but if he were to stay, I think the Heels could muster enough help at the PG position to be a top 10 team. With him gone, UNC will be weak out on the perimeter, and despite out solid frontcourt (Thompson, Davis, Zeller and 3 top 10 big men recruits) the heels will need at least a year before being becoming a legitimate title contender again.

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