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WR/WR to start the draft


dirtdickens
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Last Tuesday, we had a draft for a 10 team startup dynasty league. All experienced Fantasy Football players that I've played against for years. Fun times drafting players, knowing that I'll be keeping them forever. I had the 6th pick, and went for the WR/WR strategy:

 

6 Calvin Johnson, Det

15 Greg Jennings, GB

26 Matt Ryan, Atl

35 Darren McFadden, Oak

46 Kevin Smith, Det

55 Vincent Jackson, SD

66 Donald Brown, Ind

75 Greg Olsen, Chi

86 Eagles D/ST, Phi

95 Michael Crabtree, SF

106 Mark Sanchez, NYJ

115 Reggie Bush, NO

126 Jeremy Maclin, Phi

135 James Davis, Cle

146 Dustin Keller, NYJ

155 D'Qwell Jackson, Cle

166 Leon Washington, NYJ

175 Earl Bennett, Chi

186 Cowboys D/ST, Dal

195 Chris Henry, Cin

206 Yeremiah Bell, Mia

215 Bernard Scott, Cin

226 Jason Elam, Atl

235 Adewale Ogunleye, Chi

 

I preranked the WRs having Megatron as #1 & Jennings as #4. The Manager with the 9th pick also went WR/WR & took Fitz & Andre Johnson, who I had pre-ranked as #2 & #3. I got the better of those combos this week, we'll see what happens in the future.

 

My thinking for a dynasty league is that most of today's workhorse running backs will be in timeshares within a couple of years. The RBBC system is proven to work for NFL teams, so we're gonna be seeing more & more of it. Plus, if you look at the cheatsheets over the years, running backs in the top 10 are always changing, but the top 10 WR crew seems to be more stable.

I don't care

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My opponent having Romo saved me, so did the MB3 injury. I started Felix in place of PT so I am still waiting on having a real RB in my line up. Took out the week 1 high scorer in a low scoring game 88-85. Really getting concerned at this point by the overall low scoring that is going on in FF. No one is really sticking out at this point. Maybe ADP and Brees but...........not much else.

 

Moss was pretty confusing this weekend. For the second week Brady looked to have hurt Moss more than help him. Two wide open looks against Buffalo and his uncertainty in throwing it up and letting Moss fight it out with Revis this past weekend.

 

Not to jinx myself but I may have Tashrd Choice/Felix, PT Cruiser and possibly Donald Brown in the lineup this weekend.

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  • 2 weeks later...

WR/WR was the way to go so far. With the majority of the top backs flunking Moss and Fitz produced a little more than what other were able to do with their first picks. The huge play for me was having Choice/Felix and PT in the game as I was league high scorer. 170 points in what is a 100 avg league.

 

-first 2 WRs are outscoring everyones first two picks in my league

-getting by with PT as my only real starting back

-dominating with Coffee/Choice and other backups getting spot duty.

 

I dont

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On the opposite side, I went RB/RB/QB/RB/WR/WR in one league (granted we started the draft the day after the pro bowl) and I was able to get SICK value for WRS later that wont be superstars, but they will be solid every week contributors.

 

From the 10 spot in a 12 team league

Slaton

Barber

Peyton manning

Pierre Thomas

Desean jackson

Hines Ward

 

I was also able to get Hester late and Manningham after week one.

 

3-0 so far in this league . . .

 

My moral is that even with RB flops being a at a higher ratio, several players went the WR/WR route and I got solid RBs while going for value WRs later that are unlikely to put up a goose egg for me in any given week.

Edited by bpwallace49
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Well this week the 49ers and Patrick Willis did it for me. Without them I would not have made it because my lack of RB through the draft would have crushed me. The interesting thing is that

-PThomas is one of the best scoring RB in my league-got him in the 4th

-I decided that if I went the WR/WR route I was going to be forced to draft backups and hope for the worst. In my case is has worked out as MB3 and Gore went down. Without them I would be starting DBrown and LWhite. I saw where a lot of guys that drafted this way ended up with a lot of the same RBs-White PT and Felix.

 

High scorer again for the 2nd week in a row. Fitz on bye.

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If rodgers gets 17+ points... I'll be 2-2... if he doesn't.. i'll be 1-3...

 

WR WR WR draft team in sig... looks dominant after some trades that I made so I'm completely befuddled at the potential loss.

 

quick edit: Week 3 loss was attributed to playing Mario Manningham instead of Desean Jackson

Edited by michaelman
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  • 7 months later...

Anyone thinking about going WR/WR again?

 

I gotta admit that a lot of people are catching on to the WR/WR method in the first two rounds. The thing that is scaring me is that Fitz wont be what he was and I am not sure Moss has it in him to continue at the pace we are used to. One of the big reasons I decided to try this strategy was because someone here(cant remember the name, sorry) posted on how Wayne, Moss and Fitz were the only three WRs to produce on avg with the top10 RBs over the last 3 or so years. With two of those three looking like at the very least their consistency is going to take a hit, that is more than enough to scare me.

 

How about some thoughts from you guys on this?

 

Obviously, Andre Johnson could step in to the 3 I listed, but he is not consistent and that is what made those three so awesome.

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Anyone thinking about going WR/WR again?

 

I gotta admit that a lot of people are catching on to the WR/WR method in the first two rounds. The thing that is scaring me is that Fitz wont be what he was and I am not sure Moss has it in him to continue at the pace we are used to. One of the big reasons I decided to try this strategy was because someone here(cant remember the name, sorry) posted on how Wayne, Moss and Fitz were the only three WRs to produce on avg with the top10 RBs over the last 3 or so years. With two of those three looking like at the very least their consistency is going to take a hit, that is more than enough to scare me.

 

How about some thoughts from you guys on this?

 

Obviously, Andre Johnson could step in to the 3 I listed, but he is not consistent and that is what made those three so awesome.

If I have a late 1st round pick this year, I'd have no problem doing it again.

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I'd do it...from picks 5-thru-12 and if the right guy is on the board coming back.

 

Picks 1-thru-4 (johnson, AP, MJD, Rice in some order) I'd be hard pressed not to take one of these guys before AJ.

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I dunno. I suppose I'd do it if I could get two of Moss/Fitz/AJ/Wayne and didn't have a shot at a RB I was really high on, but that is about it. If I already have an elite WR, am I going to take Miles, Calvin, Boldin, etc? No way. You can win championships without an elite #2 WR. I don't think you have nearly as good of a chance to win a championship with bad RB's.

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Anyone thinking about going WR/WR again?

 

I spend almost every waking hour thinking about it.

 

The better question to ask is this

 

Is anyone thinking about going WR/WR/WR/WR again ?

 

I basically invented the WR/WR/WR/WR theory myself.

 

That is what I did in 2003 and it should have won me $15,000 but I played the wrong QB and K in week 14 ended up costing me the title and the cash.

 

I had the 8th pick that year and went Harrison, Moss, Ward and Toomer with my 1st 4 picks.

 

After the draft I was called "dead money" and was asked "what I was smoking"

 

I was in the lead with 8 minutes left in the GB/Oak final Monday night game but it wasn't meant to be as A-Green scored with about 5 minutes left ending my chance of fame and glory.

 

Ended up 3rd out of 72 teams, missed 1st place by 6 pts and 2nd place by 1/4th of a point.

 

All because I played Kitna over Garcia and Kasay over Wilkins. Had I stuck with the guy I played all year until that point I would have been the 1st ever Fantasy Jungle champion.

 

I was the only team out of the 72 that did WR/WR/WR/WR that year.

 

In fact only 1 other team out of the other 71 did WR/WR. 70 teams went wtih at least 1 RB with their 1st 2 picks.

 

The only other guy who went WR/WR also went Harrison/Moss and he made the top 10 as well.

Edited by Henry Muto
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I'd do it...from picks 5-thru-12 and if the right guy is on the board coming back.

 

Picks 1-thru-4 (johnson, AP, MJD, Rice in some order) I'd be hard pressed not to take one of these guys before AJ.

 

Thats pretty much where I was at last year. I think I picked at 8 or 9 and the last RB I was comfortable with was #5. The thing I am curious about is with Fitz looking like he wont be as consistent(which is the most important thing) and only leaving Moss and Wayne of the original three, you guys still comfortable diving into this method?

 

After last year I would think Wayne will probably go first out of the group and then AJ, Moss and Fitz.

 

Ray Rice going that high this year?

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Obviously, Andre Johnson could step in to the 3 I listed, but he is not consistent and that is what made those three so awesome.

How do you figure?

 

2009 Houston Texans 16 101 1,569 15.5 98.1 72T 9 22 9 69 1

2008 Houston Texans 16 115 1,575 13.7 98.4 65 8 20 4 79 1

2007 Houston Texans 9 60 851 14.2 94.6 77T 8 8 2 39 1

 

'07 extrapolates out to 107/1513/14 over 16 games. He's also only 28, has a QB that loves him and a system that rides him. AJ is pure stud.'

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The thing I am curious about is with Fitz looking like he wont be as consistent

I'm not convinced. Yes, Warner retired and yes, whoever the QB is might have challenges but (A) He's still Larry Freaking Fitzgerald, one of the three most physically talented WR out there and he'll get (or make) his; (:wacko: There's no Boldin to leech stats off now.

 

The delta from Warner's 4200/28 to Leinhart's 3000/18 could very well be all just Boldin's lost production. I'm licking my chops at the though of Fitz dropping out of the stud WR draft range and the chance to get a bargain.

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I'm not convinced. Yes, Warner retired and yes, whoever the QB is might have challenges but (A) He's still Larry Freaking Fitzgerald, one of the three most physically talented WR out there and he'll get (or make) his; (:wacko: There's no Boldin to leech stats off now.

 

The delta from Warner's 4200/28 to Leinhart's 3000/18 could very well be all just Boldin's lost production. I'm licking my chops at the though of Fitz dropping out of the stud WR draft range and the chance to get a bargain.

 

The original theory that started this whole thread was that brentastic had a stat on 3 WRs (moss/Wayne and Fitz)scoring like top 10 RBs over the last 3 years. No other WRs did that, none even came close to the consistency of those 3. You could still have an awesome team taking one of those three and another decent WR, but the consistency was the special part.

 

I can almost guarantee Ftiz isnt going to put up the numbers he has the last four years and AJ is an injury/lack of TD threat.

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I realize the base concept. I guess I just don't agree that these guys "lack consistency" or carry the risk others do. Heck I put Wayne and Calvin Johnson into this same category, and am very close to adding a couple more too.

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As far as WR/WR, the one thing I consistently see people completely ignoring in their answers and analysis of the theory and its application is the league structure they are applying it to.

 

In a non-PPR league with lineup requirements of 2 RBs and 2 WRs, with no flex, then going WR/WR is likely a very poor choice.

 

In a PPR league with requirements of 1 RB and 4 WRs, then going WR/WR is a much more valid option.

 

In what is becoming more then norm of PPR, with 2 RB, 3 WR and a flex position, then it is a much closer decision and becomes much more a decision based on:

 

1. How you project the players to actually perform

2. Exactly what pick you have

3. Your level of confidence in selecting not only the WRs that will perform at the top of the class but also the tier 2 and 3 RBs that will outperform their draft position

4. What the draft tendencies of your leaguemates are, in particular the inclination to go WR by the teams drafting between your 1st and 2nd pick and the proclivity to load up at RB by the teams picking between your 2nd and 3rd pick.

 

Without fully examining those factors at a minimum, blindly saying that going WR/WR (or any other preset strategy) is foolish at best assuming you are drafting against moderately intelligent opponents that actually think about draft strategy.

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I have gone WR/WR to start and done very well with it. I am not so set in it that I will do that for sure. It all depends on the league rules (PPR vs. non-PPR, lineup, etc.) and how the draft is unfolding. If I can get two stud WR's in a PPR league, I'm likely to go with it.

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in my years of fantasy football, I have learned that it is a bad idea to go into the draft with a predetermined gameplan unless you know your draft position in advance....and even then, you can only plan around the 1st 2 rounds (if that)....

 

going WR-WR early is risky, but with so many RB's to choose from now due to RBBC flooding the market of RB's, you can't even go wrong with a QB 1st depending on the scoring and who is taken off the board at the time...

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in my years of fantasy football, I have learned that it is a bad idea to go into the draft with a predetermined gameplan unless you know your draft position in advance....and even then, you can only plan around the 1st 2 rounds (if that)....

 

going WR-WR early is risky, but with so many RB's to choose from now due to RBBC flooding the market of RB's, you can't even go wrong with a QB 1st depending on the scoring and who is taken off the board at the time...

 

These are good points. I think one positive regarding a WR-WR start is that it is easier to find a plug and play waiver wire darling at RB later in the year than WR. If a starting RB gets hurt, the backup can often put up solid numbers if the offensive situation is right and the backup is on the waiver wire more often than not (depending on the size of your league and the need for a handcuff). But the same doesn't apply to WRs - if a WR gets hurt, the backup is usually a guy who's already playing a different WR position (and frequently already rostered), so last year you wouldn't be picking up Boldin or even Breaston if Fitzgerald got hurt, you'd be picking up Jerheme Urban (which means you're probably looking elsewhere anyway).

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you should definitely go WR/WR/WR in a non-PPR as no one else will do that. I started with FOUR WRs last year in a Non-PPR and walked away with the championship.

 

Of course, the key there is identifying decent RBs (eg. Benson) that will be there late. I took Schaub in the fifth, so that helped.

 

WR/WR/WR/QB, then guys like Jahvid Best, Caddy, MBush, Hightower.

 

if you didn't take Schaub and Benson, this could have ended badly....

 

starting your draft with 4 WR's...or even just 3 in a row is extremely risky....you had quite a bit of luck here, but it worked out...

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if you didn't take Schaub and Benson, this could have ended badly....

 

starting your draft with 4 WR's...or even just 3 in a row is extremely risky....you had quite a bit of luck here, but it worked out...

 

Agreed. And very similar to my point quoted below. (Not that a degree of luck isn;t involved with any draft strategy)

 

3. Your level of confidence in selecting not only the WRs that will perform at the top of the class but also the tier 2 and 3 RBs that will outperform their draft position

 

 

IMO, it is generally easier to find WRs that perform later on or through the waiver wire, and especially in PPR leagues, there is a larger pool of WRs that contribute enough to put into a lineup.

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