Rankings

[darin3]

Obviously we can't cut/paste the rankings here, as they're part of our "pay" section.... but I'd appreciate any input you IDPers have on the rankings. Feel free to post your comments/questions here so we can discuss the "why's" or PM me.

 

It was a pretty tough go with the rankings this off-season. Lots of big-time players moving (article on them forthcoming), lots of scheme and/or coaching changes, and a significant number of rookies potentially making impacts.

 

TIA.

[Tford]

First impressions:

 

DL

1) Aren't Will Smith and Charles Grant part of that Starcaps deal too? If so, I'd be hesitant to place Smith and Grant where they are.

 

2) I got Antonio Smith, Cliff Avril and Kris Jenkins up higher.

 

3) I agree with you in the thinking that Aaron Schobel bounces back strong.

 

LB

1) I think DJ Williams is a top 10 LB if he can stay healthy (big if). Andra Davis is pedestrian at best at the Ted spot.

 

2) My gut says that we see a bit of a tumble in Ernie Sims' stats. Larry Foote will be more of an impact player than people realize. I can't back that up with any concrete stats because Foote hasn't played in a 4-3 in his NFL career and Sims' has played in a Cover-2 scheme in each of his 3 years. Gut feeling here.

 

3) Call me a homer but Curtis Lofton will be a top 20 LB this year. The amount of tackles Lofton racked up per snap he saw on defense was astronomical. He will be on the field for all 3 downs this year and while he will see a decent upgrade beside him on the weak side moving from Brooking to Peterson, he will also see a significant downgrade at the strongside going from Boley to Nicholas/Wire.

 

4) Agree with the assessment on the majority of other top 20 LBs like EJ Henderson, Stew Bradley and Poz.

 

DB

1) I like Kevin Payne to increase his tackles numbers with Mike Brown out and Corey Graham in. I like seeing a converted corner at FS when I depend on my SS for tackle numbers.

 

2) Why the prediction for a downswing in Antoine Bethea's stats? A healthy Bob Sanders? Seems to me like Bethea is firming his position as a great attacking FS in that Colt defense.

 

3) I agree with the Chris Hope assessment but I'm even more optimistic. How many more plays will opposing offenses be able to get lineman to the LBs now that Haynesworth isn't there? Jones and Brown got big shoes to fill.

 

4) Interesting that you are picking the odd man out in ATL to be Thomas DeCoud. He is the safety that is currently garnering the most praise in OTAs and is also the frontrunner for the SS job. It's possible that both Moore and DeCoud grab starting job but I wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy rotation either. Both safety spots for the Falcons are generally productive so any clear winner would be a solid choice.

[darin3]

First impressions:

 

DL

1) Aren't Will Smith and Charles Grant part of that Starcaps deal too? If so, I'd be hesitant to place Smith and Grant where they are. You're correct, they are still under investigation. Everything I've been hearing, though, keeps mentioning the Viking DLs, and not the Saints. Obviously, we'll make some adjustments if they are out for the first four games.

2) I got Antonio Smith, Cliff Avril and Kris Jenkins up higher. Smith and Avril are two guys that are in great situations. I'm just not sure they're all that good. Jenkins scored around 100ish points last season, so you're right, he could see himself finishing higher in the rankings. But his stats were unusually high last season. Will he repeat, or return to his "norm" (30ish tackles, 10ish assists, 2.5 sacks).

3) I agree with you in the thinking that Aaron Schobel bounces back strong. Definitely will.

 

LB

1) I think DJ Williams is a top 10 LB if he can stay healthy (big if). Andra Davis is pedestrian at best at the Ted spot. Right, Davis isn't going to be a fantasy producer, but he's a savvy enough veteran to keep the spot the entire season and gobble up enough tackles and "other stats" to hold Williams back. Williams is certainly talented and has the ability to jump up into the next tier of LBs, though.

2) My gut says that we see a bit of a tumble in Ernie Sims' stats. Larry Foote will be more of an impact player than people realize. I can't back that up with any concrete stats because Foote hasn't played in a 4-3 in his NFL career and Sims' has played in a Cover-2 scheme in each of his 3 years. Gut feeling here. Can't argue with your gut, but I'm not that into Foote. Sims is a beast and I could actually see him 5-10 spots higher.

3) Call me a homer but Curtis Lofton will be a top 20 LB this year. The amount of tackles Lofton racked up per snap he saw on defense was astronomical. He will be on the field for all 3 downs this year and while he will see a decent upgrade beside him on the weak side moving from Brooking to Peterson, he will also see a significant downgrade at the strongside going from Boley to Nicholas/Wire. He certainly has the talent, but I am really thinking Peterson has a bounce-back season and could really vulture Lofton's production. Just a gut feeling there.

 

4) Agree with the assessment on the majority of other top 20 LBs like EJ Henderson, Stew Bradley and Poz. Word.

 

DB

1) I like Kevin Payne to increase his tackles numbers with Mike Brown out and Corey Graham in. I like seeing a converted corner at FS when I depend on my SS for tackle numbers. I'm a huge fan of Payne and the Bear D as a whole this season. You could certainly see Payne's numbers higher than I have projected. Just tempering my expectations based on him not having much experience.. and a host of other DBs that could see time.

 

2) Why the prediction for a downswing in Antoine Bethea's stats? A healthy Bob Sanders? Seems to me like Bethea is firming his position as a great attacking FS in that Colt defense. He is a good attacking FS, but I'm thinking he bolstered his 2008 numbers when he was playing Sanders' spot. Obviously, if Sanders goes down, Bethea's numbers will jump. But 80 total tackles from the FS spot isn't too crazy, IMO.

 

3) I agree with the Chris Hope assessment but I'm even more optimistic. How many more plays will opposing offenses be able to get lineman to the LBs now that Haynesworth isn't there? Jones and Brown got big shoes to fill. Yeah, I tried to bump up my Titan DB expectations a little bit this year. Griffin and Finnegan will be big-time performers as well as Hope.

 

4) Interesting that you are picking the odd man out in ATL to be Thomas DeCoud. He is the safety that is currently garnering the most praise in OTAs and is also the frontrunner for the SS job. It's possible that both Moore and DeCoud grab starting job but I wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy rotation either. Both safety spots for the Falcons are generally productive so any clear winner would be a solid choice. At press time, every depth chart I read - as well as a few OTA notes - said that it was wide open and Moore was impressive. I am a believer in DeCoud and as I'm checking now, it looks like DeCoud is the starting SS. I would project about the same stats for DeCoud in Moore's stead. Definitely going to be a subject of our next rankings update.

 

Thanks for the comments.

[Zooty]

B. Pollard's write-up looks like its Landry's

 

Landry's maybe his own.

 

Pretty interesting stuff

[darin3]

B. Pollard's write-up looks like its Landry's

 

Landry's maybe his own.

 

Pretty interesting stuff

You're right, the writeup for Pollard didn't make its way on, I'll have 'em adjust accordingly. Thanks for the heads-up.

[nuke'em ttg]

First impressions:

 

DL

1) Aren't Will Smith and Charles Grant part of that Starcaps deal too? If so, I'd be hesitant to place Smith and Grant where they are.

 

2) I got Antonio Smith, Cliff Avril and Kris Jenkins up higher.

 

3) I agree with you in the thinking that Aaron Schobel bounces back strong.

 

LB

1) I think DJ Williams is a top 10 LB if he can stay healthy (big if). Andra Davis is pedestrian at best at the Ted spot.

 

2) My gut says that we see a bit of a tumble in Ernie Sims' stats. Larry Foote will be more of an impact player than people realize. I can't back that up with any concrete stats because Foote hasn't played in a 4-3 in his NFL career and Sims' has played in a Cover-2 scheme in each of his 3 years. Gut feeling here.

 

3) Call me a homer but Curtis Lofton will be a top 20 LB this year. The amount of tackles Lofton racked up per snap he saw on defense was astronomical. He will be on the field for all 3 downs this year and while he will see a decent upgrade beside him on the weak side moving from Brooking to Peterson, he will also see a significant downgrade at the strongside going from Boley to Nicholas/Wire.

 

4) Agree with the assessment on the majority of other top 20 LBs like EJ Henderson, Stew Bradley and Poz.

 

DB

1) I like Kevin Payne to increase his tackles numbers with Mike Brown out and Corey Graham in. I like seeing a converted corner at FS when I depend on my SS for tackle numbers.

 

2) Why the prediction for a downswing in Antoine Bethea's stats? A healthy Bob Sanders? Seems to me like Bethea is firming his position as a great attacking FS in that Colt defense.

 

3) I agree with the Chris Hope assessment but I'm even more optimistic. How many more plays will opposing offenses be able to get lineman to the LBs now that Haynesworth isn't there? Jones and Brown got big shoes to fill.

 

4) Interesting that you are picking the odd man out in ATL to be Thomas DeCoud. He is the safety that is currently garnering the most praise in OTAs and is also the frontrunner for the SS job. It's possible that both Moore and DeCoud grab starting job but I wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy rotation either. Both safety spots for the Falcons are generally productive so any clear winner would be a solid choice.

i'm done tradin with someone that knows this much

[tbimm]

i'm done tradin with someone that knows this much

I told you a while back that the learning curve if fairly steep in IDP.

[nuke'em ttg]

I told you a while back that the learning curve if fairly steep in IDP.

Ya but..... Everest Steep?

[Tford]

i'm done tradin with someone that knows this much

 

 

Haven't been able to close a deal with anyone other than Peepin, Robash and you lately......

[tbimm]

 

Haven't been able to close a deal with anyone other than Peepin, Robash and you lately......

Maybe you are knocking on the wrong doors?

[Tford]

Maybe you are knocking on the wrong doors?

 

I promise you it's not for lack of trying.

[tazinib1]

 

Haven't been able to close a deal with anyone other than Peepin, Robash and you lately......

 

 

Poor guy.

[T_bone65]

I promise you it's not for lack of trying.

 

 

[Tford]

 

Don't blame me, I got three stale offers to other teams gathering dust. I got the standard offseason repsonse. "I'll think about it and get back to you."

 

 

Besides, I can't afford your players

[T_bone65]

Don't blame me, I got three stale offers to other teams gathering dust. I got the standard offseason repsonse. "I'll think about it and get back to you."

 

 

Besides, I can't afford your players

 

Harris is not going to go at OJ's price though. I really dislike trading with most of the guys in AOTAOP

 

I bet I can guess which teams you are trying to trade with

 

Option is always there on Harris though

[nuke'em ttg]

Don't blame me, I got three stale offers to other teams gathering dust. I got the standard offseason repsonse. "I'll think about it and get back to you."

 

 

Besides, I can't afford your players

 

I like tradin within my division......it's like losin to myself in the end

[peepinmofo]

Don't blame me, I got three stale offers to other teams gathering dust. I got the standard offseason repsonse. "I'll think about it and get back to you."

 

 

Besides, I can't afford your players

[TRU SOLDJA 22]

couple of questions for the Guru's. i pay and have access to the ranking and very much enjoy them

 

- What LB position scores the most? i know Mikes are in the middle, Wills are on weak side chasing the play, Sam is getting blocked alot?

does this setup trends?

 

- what safety position scores more? Free saftey is the deepest, so that makes me think SS should get more points. A Rolle at FS is/was a beast for AZ last yr. But Landry plays FS and scores little

 

 

Any responses are much appreciated....

[Tford]

couple of questions for the Guru's. i pay and have access to the ranking and very much enjoy them

 

- What LB position scores the most? i know Mikes are in the middle, Wills are on weak side chasing the play, Sam is getting blocked alot?

does this setup trends?

 

- what safety position scores more? Free saftey is the deepest, so that makes me think SS should get more points. A Rolle at FS is/was a beast for AZ last yr. But Landry plays FS and scores little

 

 

Any responses are much appreciated....

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=155344

[TRU SOLDJA 22]

WOW!!!! Thanks Tford

 

 

Thanks Keggerz!

[Tford]

And to answer your question, there isn't one whitewash answer as to which position scores more. You need to look at both the scheme as well as the players within said scheme. Opportunity is only one part of the equation, the player needs to be able to produce results from that opportunity.

 

Of the top 10 LBs in DW2, 3 were ILBs in 3-4 schemes (Willis, Jackson and Farrior), 5 were MLBs in 4-3 schemes (Beason, Ruud, Vilma, Morrison and Fletcher), 1 was a WOLB in a 4-3 hybrid (Dansby) and 1 was an OLB in a 3-4 scheme (Harrison). The majority of top LBs will play inside, but not always. Regularly, Will LBs and 3-4 OLBs can produce well given the scoring system.

 

Similarly, you would expect SS to dominate DB scoring as they regularly attack the LOS, affording more tackle opportunity. However, looking at the top 10 DBs in DW2, 3 were free safeties (Weddle, Atogwe and Coleman), 5 were cornerbacks (Winfield, Tillman, Gamble, Jammer and Griffin) and 2 were strong safeties (Wilson and Bell). I don't subscribe to general rules of thumb for DBs as the thinking that strong safety should score the most because of better opportunity rarely yields good results.

[Randall]

I am surprised Bodden isn't listed in the top 50 DB's.

[darin3]

I am surprised Bodden isn't listed in the top 50 DB's.

Quite simply, because at the time the rankings were published, the Patriot OTAs had not started and it wasn't clear if Bodden would actually be the starter. The rankings will be updated within a few days and I can assure you he'll be ranked.

[Bronco Billy]

I am surprised Bodden isn't listed in the top 50 DB's.

 

 

Quite simply, because at the time the rankings were published, the Patriot OTAs had not started and it wasn't clear if Bodden would actually be the starter. The rankings will be updated within a few days and I can assure you he'll be ranked.

 

 

Do you guys mind? You're derailing the AOTAOP whining thread.

 

TIA for taking your idle banter to an appropriate thread...

[Tford]

 

Do you guys mind? You're derailing the AOTAOP whining thread.

 

TIA for taking your idle banter to an appropriate thread...