Pope Flick Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Your quote only proves that I was a year ahead of the curve. The quote you produced shows that at that time (last July) I was anticipating a major crash and I even stated that the more the government intervened, it would only prolong the disaster. So even though I saw it coming, it's took about a 10 months to finally start showing it's ugly head. And you're right, I did refuse a bet with you because my bet is with the market. As an investor, it's prudent to eliminate risk and I'm already short the market - doubling up on this bet against you is foolish because I have to consider that my forecast could be wrong. As an investor, you should never put all your eggs in one basket. If you predict a crash, and a year later it's +23% how are you ahead of the curve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 If you predict a crash, and a year later it's +23% how are you ahead of the curve? It's just a blip on the wave dude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 If you predict a crash, and a year later it's +23% how are you ahead of the curve? Dude, he just said the "crash" could bottom out at 10,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 I paid $10 a share for 1000 shares of a stock a year ago that was sold today for $20 a share. My investment was $10,000 and I received $20,000 when I sold the stock today for a profit of $10,000. Who lost $10,000 to make this a zero sum? Obviously not you. Zero sum means all the gains of all the participants minus all the losses of all the participants = zero. I'm not sure who the specific loser was, but there was a loser, or more specifically a group of losers just like there is a group of winners. A basic answer would be the guy you bought from or sold to loses. You don't know the purchase price of the guy you bought from, so he could have been the loser if he bought at a price greater than $10. The loser could be the investor you sold to at $20 - if the price declines from there and he sells for a loss. The loser could be comprised of several $1 per share losers that offered liquidity by buying and selling (day traders). The answer is not so obvious because the market is vast and complex, but trust me, the stock market is a zero sum game - fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Dude, he just said the "crash" could bottom out at 10,000. you should put down the pipe, because... 1) I was the one who used the example, not brent 2) it was an example.....what about the $5,000 figure I gave?.....oh wait that doesn't help you make a funny.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 BTW, I'm still waiting on weigie to prove I'm an idiot. you are doing my job for me Obviously not you. Zero sum means all the gains of all the participants minus all the losses of all the participants = zero. I'm not sure who the specific loser was, but there was a loser, or more specifically a group of losers just like there is a group of winners. A basic answer would be the guy you bought from or sold to loses. You don't know the purchase price of the guy you bought from, so he could have been the loser if he bought at a price greater than $10. The loser could be the investor you sold to at $20 - if the price declines from there and he sells for a loss. The loser could be comprised of several $1 per share losers that offered liquidity by buying and selling (day traders). The answer is not so obvious because the market is vast and complex, but trust me, the stock market is a zero sum game - fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 If you predict a crash, and a year later it's +23% how are you ahead of the curve? I didn't predict a crash that moment, if you actually read the quote, I only inferred a crash was imminent. I believe my first prediction (as far as a market top) was this past January. I predicted the top was in on January and I was off by 3 months (if in fact the top is in as of April 26). But as I've stated all along, it doesn't matter how perfect my timing was, the only thing that matters is that you are on the right side of the market or out of the market when the crash takes place. If the market does live up to my predictions, do you think I'm worried about how perfect my timing is/was? Your post is evidence that you know nothing about the market and your only intention is to argue for the sake of arguing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Obviously not you. Zero sum means all the gains of all the participants minus all the losses of all the participants = zero. I'm not sure who the specific loser was, but there was a loser, or more specifically a group of losers just like there is a group of winners. A basic answer would be the guy you bought from or sold to loses. You don't know the purchase price of the guy you bought from, so he could have been the loser if he bought at a price greater than $10. The loser could be the investor you sold to at $20 - if the price declines from there and he sells for a loss. The loser could be comprised of several $1 per share losers that offered liquidity by buying and selling (day traders). The answer is not so obvious because the market is vast and complex, but trust me, the stock market is a zero sum game - fact. the best thing about this hypothesis is that when we do indeed get this tremendous market crash, the overall economy won't have actually lost any money--the money will just have been redistributed from one group of people to a different group of people. Overall wealth in the economy will remain constant. Hence, even a market crash will have no effect on the overall economy. This is GREAT news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 you are doing my job for me Umm, weigie, are you sure you have a degree in anything finance related (economics, finance, accounting, business)? Do you really not understand the concept of a zero sum game? If not, I'm shocked that you actually teach economics as a profession. SEriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 one thing I believe strongly is that there are very few, if any, "zero sum games" in a dynamic economy. but especially not in the stock market. come on, man. that is so easily disproven it's not even worth the effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evil_gop_liars Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 A basic answer would be the guy you bought from or sold to loses......The answer is not so obvious because the market is vast and complex, but trust me, the stock market is a zero sum game - fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 So, reduce this to layman's terms for me. Can I still buy beer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Umm, weigie, are you sure you have a degree in anything finance related (economics, finance, accounting, business)? Do you really not understand the concept of a zero sum game? If not, I'm shocked that you actually teach economics as a profession. SEriously. I understand the concept--I just don't think you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 So, reduce this to layman's terms for me. Can I still buy beer? Depends. If we are in a period of deflation... Never mind, I need a beer, you wanna go? I've got $300 for beer and a little bucket of eels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 one thing I believe strongly is that there are very few, if any, "zero sum games" in a dynamic economy. but especially not in the stock market. come on, man. that is so easily disproven it's not even worth the effort. Nothing has been proven. It might be an opinion of one or many but as far as being proven - it's not and still debated. I'll admit that the idea of the stock market being a zero-sum game is not absolute - nothing has been proven. However, I believe firmly that it is a zero sum game. Because the market has perennially increased and appears to be a gigantic ponzi scheme, gives the perception that it is not zero-sum. However, because of constant liquidity, it has to be zero-sum, IMO. If not, then it must be a ponzi scheme - and if that's the case, when it's discovered to be a ponzi scheme, it will also result in a zero sum game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 So, reduce this to layman's terms for me. Can I still buy beer? Yes, but Busch Light isn't real beer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evil_gop_liars Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 So, reduce this to layman's terms for me. Can I still buy beer? No one said you can't buy beer because of the wave, the wave simply indicates what is happening, that is all. Does this help? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Obviously not you. Zero sum means all the gains of all the participants minus all the losses of all the participants = zero. I'm not sure who the specific loser was, but there was a loser, or more specifically a group of losers just like there is a group of winners. A basic answer would be the guy you bought from or sold to loses. You don't know the purchase price of the guy you bought from, so he could have been the loser if he bought at a price greater than $10. The loser could be the investor you sold to at $20 - if the price declines from there and he sells for a loss. The loser could be comprised of several $1 per share losers that offered liquidity by buying and selling (day traders). The answer is not so obvious because the market is vast and complex, but trust me, the stock market is a zero sum game - fact. In an essay called "The Arithmetic of Active Management," professor William Sharpe explains the phenomenon this way: The gross return of all traders in a market must equal the market return. If the market goes up 10%, in other words, the gross return of all traders must also be 10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Nothing has been proven. It might be an opinion of one or many but as far as being proven - it's not and still debated. I'll admit that the idea of the stock market being a zero-sum game is not absolute - nothing has been proven. Then why did you call it a "fact" not 3 or 4 posts ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 If not, then it must be a ponzi scheme - and if that's the case, when it's discovered to be a ponzi scheme, it will also result in a zero sum game. Actually, you are onto something there. If the stock market is discovered to be a ponzi scheme then the Dow will go back to 0 and the total historical return will be 0% making it a zero sum game. This is the only scenario for which your argument for a zero sum game is valid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 Then why did you call it a "fact" not 3 or 4 posts ago? To me it is fact. What's your point? You're proving to be just another condescending ingratiater who likes to pile on . Not at all surprising, afterall you are displaying majority type behavior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 you should put down the pipe, because... 1) I was the one who used the example, not brent 2) it was an example.....what about the $5,000 figure I gave?.....oh wait that doesn't help you make a funny.. Dannng, since when did we have to be factually accurate to make a funny? This is not the "change" I voted for. () Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 this thread is quickly becoming a zero sum thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 the best thing about this hypothesis is that when we do indeed get this tremendous market crash, the overall economy won't have actually lost any money--the money will just have been redistributed from one group of people to a different group of people. Overall wealth in the economy will remain constant. Hence, even a market crash will have no effect on the overall economy. This is GREAT news. Brent, please address this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 this thread is quickly becoming a zero sum thread. the thread of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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