Avernus Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Dannng, since when did we have to be factually accurate to make a funny? This is not the "change" I voted for. () how do you like the new green text on The Huddle, Panama Red? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 To me it is fact. What's your point? You're proving to be just another condescending ingratiater who likes to pile on . Not at all surprising, afterall you are displaying majority type behavior. Right. You are contradicting yourself within the space of a few posts. I ask questions regarding clarification of this and you start with the name calling. Well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 this thread is quickly becoming a zero sum thread. Hopefully it will stay open until we determine whether the Elliot Wave Theory or the stock market is a ponzi scheme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Right. You are contradicting yourself within the space of a few posts. I ask questions regarding clarification of this and you start with the name calling. Well done! Jack ass!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Nothing has been proven. It might be an opinion of one or many but as far as being proven - it's not and still debated. I'll admit that the idea of the stock market being a zero-sum game is not absolute - nothing has been proven. However, I believe firmly that it is a zero sum game. Because the market has perennially increased and appears to be a gigantic ponzi scheme, gives the perception that it is not zero-sum. However, because of constant liquidity, it has to be zero-sum, IMO. If not, then it must be a ponzi scheme - and if that's the case, when it's discovered to be a ponzi scheme, it will also result in a zero sum game. here is a graph of the historical DJIA adjusted for inflation. over time there have been a lot more winners investing in the stock market than losers. that is a fact. wealth can be and is created. that is also a fact. these two facts are related. yes, there is probably some (non-zero) equilibrium that perhaps we are on the wrong side of, and your whole wave thing....who knows, maybe that offers some insight (highly doubtful IMO, but again, who knows). but nobody knows where that equilibrium is. if that were in any way apparent, the market would reflect it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Big move up on oil, down less than 1% now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 (edited) Hopefully it will stay open until we determine whether the Elliot Wave Theory or the stock market is a ponzi scheme. we may need to halt this thread due to it being in a freefall. no bids. thread 3000 Edited May 20, 2010 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 we may need to halt this thread due to it being in a freefall. no bids. thread 3000 I blame the decline on a single poster with fat(tie) fingers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 I blame the decline on a single poster with fat(tie) fingers. he meant to post 10x and accidentally hit the 10k button. halt!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta Cracker Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 I've not been active in this discussion, but have been reading intently because I'm a newbie when it comes to financials. You folks have scared the crap out of me. Then again, most Huddlers do....... My original intention was to respond to this post with some sound advice but I got sidetracked in a zero sum game. First of all I will say that having money in cash / CDs outside of retirement plans as a primary savings / investing mechanism is ok and I know quite a few people who have accumulated a great deal of wealth in that manner and not lost any sleep at night over the value of their investments fluctuating. Sometimes you get more interest than others but you know where you stand. If you are very risk averse this is probably the route to go. At some point there may be a threshold that you exceed in conservative holdings where looking at alternatives makes sense. My rule of thumb is excess of 2 years income needs. At that point starting a investment portfolio probably makes sense. Finding an investment professional at this point can make sense but you can start doing some investing on your own. If you want help just starting out hire a fee based planner as most advisors with bigger brokerage firms won't give you much attention. Talk to at least 3 people and choose the one who understands you and what you are trying to accomplish best and not someone who gives you the best sales pitch. For investing strategies, especially if you are looking at a long time horizon, the best bet is to pick a diverse mix of asset classes and re-balance your portfolio on an annual basis. This will force you to sell high and buy low over time. This will work over a long period of time even if things appear jacked up right now. The challenge right now is that based on many historical basis, it's not a good time to invest in stocks or bonds and cash isn't very good at keeping up with inflation (once it reappears). Over the long term this will work itself out so you can ignore it or work with some more tactical strategies or include asset classes not traditionally included in a stock/bond/cash mix. Some examples of strategies to look into for todays environment would be: - managed futures (trading strategies) - market neutral funds - long/short strategies - real estate - timber - commodities strategies - global flexible bond funds etc... The one thing that continually amazes me is the herd mentality for investing. If you do what everyone else is doing then it's the wrong time. Mutual fund flows out of equity mutual funds peaked in Feb/March last year at the exact time you should have been buying. Fund flows have been 11/1 into bond mutual funds over stock mutual funds this year despite rates being at all time lows with no hope of going lower (and when they go up those people lose). The most important thing is to have a long term approach that you believe in and stick to. If you get in the pool have faith the water is rising and ignore the WAVES!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Obviously not you. Zero sum means all the gains of all the participants minus all the losses of all the participants = zero. I'm not sure who the specific loser was, but there was a loser, or more specifically a group of losers just like there is a group of winners. A basic answer would be the guy you bought from or sold to loses. You don't know the purchase price of the guy you bought from, so he could have been the loser if he bought at a price greater than $10. The loser could be the investor you sold to at $20 - if the price declines from there and he sells for a loss. The loser could be comprised of several $1 per share losers that offered liquidity by buying and selling (day traders). The answer is not so obvious because the market is vast and complex, but trust me, the stock market is a zero sum game - fact. But this is simply wrong. Your hypothesis assumes that someone, somewhere lost $10,000 to match the $10,000 gain. It therefore assumes that, over time, stocks never rise or fall except as bumps and dips in an eternal road of equal value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyBalata Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Yes, but Busch Light isn't real beer. Probably the smartest post in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fatman Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 (edited) I blame the decline on a single poster with fat(tie) fingers. I haven't even typed anything, jerk! ETA: Well, except that. And this. Edited May 20, 2010 by Fatman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Big move up on oil, down less than 1% now. oil now up a buck for the day. stocks down ~4%. yowsa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Umm, weigie, are you sure you have a degree in anything finance related (economics, finance, accounting, business)? Do you really not understand the concept of a zero sum game? If not, I'm shocked that you actually teach economics as a profession. SEriously. Is that Chinese food ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Is that Chinese food ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 (edited) But this is simply wrong. Your hypothesis assumes that someone, somewhere lost $10,000 to match the $10,000 gain. It therefore assumes that, over time, stocks never rise or fall except as bumps and dips in an eternal road of equal value. You're right, in the short term, my claim cannot be validated in the stock market - only in the long run, if/when the stock market collapses to zero can it be validated. Right now, it's only a hypothesis that cannot be proven. However, if you count future gains not realized because you sold too early it could be considered valid argument. I'm sick of talking about this though, so I will concede that I may be wrong with my assumption of zero sum game. Really though, whether I'm right or wrong about a zero sum game is irrelevant to my stock market forecast. I'm willing to admit that with this hypothesis, further thought is required by me - I certainly don't have all the answers but I will continue my search. Good insight (you to Atlanta Cracker). BTW - 3.5+% losses accross the board in all the major indices (Russell 2k lost 5%). E2A: In a futures market I think zero sum game certainly applies without debate. Edited May 20, 2010 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 considering this is all a collective belief that our system works and we have a collective belief that these things have intrinstic values we are willing to trade goods, services, or a funny lookin piece of paper called "money" for. . . . . I am glad I look the blue pill. I love some of the info in this tread (both humorous and serious). I am by no means a serious investor, and some of these points are great to hear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 You're right, in the short term, my claim cannot be validated in the stock market - only in the long run, if/when the stock market collapses to zero can it be validated.And let me reiterate that the only way that a stock-market collapse to zero could validate your claim is if the overall change in wealth from such a collapse turns out to be zero (i.e. the overall wealth in the economy remains unchanged even in the face of such a market collapse). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 some of these points are great to hear. humor angle aside, you are almost certainly dumber for having read this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 humor angle aside, you are almost certainly dumber for having read this thread. You are such a great teacher, overestimating my intelligence and all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 humor angle aside, you are almost certainly dumber for having read this thread. So you are saying that posts like Atlanta Cracker's on this page are incorrect and "make you dumber"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeteebee Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 humor angle aside, you are almost certainly dumber for having read this thread. That line, when used appropriately, always gets a chuckle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 Is that Chinese food ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted May 20, 2010 Share Posted May 20, 2010 humor angle aside, you are almost certainly dumber for having read this thread. impossible, because bp's intelligence is a zero sum game. fact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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