The Economy and Stock Market

[Brentastic]

And let me reiterate that the only way that a stock-market collapse to zero could validate your claim is if the overall change in wealth from such a collapse turns out to be zero (i.e. the overall wealth in the economy remains unchanged even in the face of such a market collapse).

Right - I believe that. I'm not sure by your response if you do - but I agree that a total collapse in the stock market would only shift aggregate wealth, not diminish it.

[MikesVikes]

You're right, in the short term, my claim cannot be validated in the stock market - only in the long run, if/when the stock market collapses to zero can it be validated. Right now, it's only a hypothesis that cannot be proven.

 

 

[geeteebee]

Umm, weigie, are you sure you have a degree in anything finance related (economics, finance, accounting, business)? Do you really not understand the concept of a zero sum game? If not, I'm shocked that you actually teach economics as a profession. SEriously.

 

This has got to be a fishing expedition, so if it is, you hooked me.

 

I've refrained from posting in this thread because clearly I'm not as smart as most of the posters but I have to say if you really believe the stock market is a zero sum game, you should stop belittling people in this thread and take a finance class. I don't mean to belittle you by saying that, I just really don't like to see misinformed people lose their shirts in the investment world.

 

Brent, I hope you make a billion dollars following whatever theory works for you, but sometimes it is better to learn rather than teach. I know you have strong beliefs in what you think you know, but by posting some of this stuff, you sound really foolish. I don't write that flippantly, nor so because I don't agree with your ideas because there are lots of people who I don't agree with but know they very well could be right.

 

Just my . I'll now go back under my rock.

 

Oh, and in case you want to tell me to take a finance class. I have. Many.

[Brentastic]

This has got to be a fishing expedition, so if it is, you hooked me.

 

I've refrained from posting in this thread because clearly I'm not as smart as most of the posters but I have to say if you really believe the stock market is a zero sum game, you should stop belittling people in this thread and take a finance class. I don't mean to belittle you by saying that, I just really don't like to see misinformed people lose their shirts in the investment world.

 

Brent, I hope you make a billion dollars following whatever theory works for you, but sometimes it is better to learn rather than teach. I know you have strong beliefs in what you think you know, but by posting some of this stuff, you sound really foolish. I don't write that flippantly, nor so because I don't agree with your ideas because there are lots of people who I don't agree with but know they very well could be right.

 

Just my . I'll now go back under my rock.

 

Oh, and in case you want to tell me to take a finance class. I have. Many.

I have a degree in finance and not once, in any of my finance classes, was the topic of zero sum game and stock market discussed. Regardless, it is a debated topic with no absolute answer.

 

Anyways, since that post, I have admitted that it might not be so easy to make that claim. In fact my claim can only be validated by a complete stock market collapse and that hasn't occurred yet. So based on what we have now as far as hisorical evidence, my claim is only a hypothesis.

 

But none of that applies to the original topic of this thread - which is my stock market forecast, derrived mainly from the use of the EWT. So if your point is to point out one of my thousands of posts in an attempt to make me look bad or presume I'm offering bad advice - you failed. It's funny that so many of you are so certain that I'm the person who is mis-guided, yet I'm the only person who can/has admitted when I'm wrong. My recommendation would never cause anyone to lose their shirt because I'm recommending a safe and relatively risk-free alternative to being long stocks.

 

It's getting a little old being backed up against a wall when I'm only offering my opinion. I understand that my opinion is much different than what many of you believe but diffute it with counter-points. Trying to say I'm foolish, or this or that (all negative) doesn't really do anything. And just because you or anyone else views my cash-heavy recommendation as wrong or incorrect doesn't make your opinion any more right or wrong than mine. So, please - if you disagree with me, that's fine, but to say I'm giving bad advice is a matter of opinion - and just disagreeing with me doesn't make you any more right. I'm sure once the market does reach the price points I've forecasted - many of you will find a way to dis-credit me then too. It is what it is.

[wiegie]

It's funny that so many of you are so certain that I'm the person who is mis-guided, yet I'm the only person who can/has admitted when I'm wrong.

uh, what? When have you EVER admitted that you are wrong on things related to the stock market?

[BobWiley]

I rarely post here but have been checking this thread daily as I believe along the lines of Brent. Most of my retirement is now in cash and I am content with a 0% increase over the next couple years.

 

With that said….. Brent, I think the response you get from people has more to do with how you come across, as opposed to your message itself. Intentional or not, you come across as arrogant and almost belittling. While I agree with you, the fact is, it’s your opinion. And trying to lecture an opinion to grown men (and women) will never go over well. Even when you admit you are wrong, you spin it in a so it comes across as arrogant (that’s pretty hard to do). I sincerely appreciate your posts and will continue to listen to what you have to say. You just might want to try a different approach.

 

Carry on ladies……

[geeteebee]

I rarely post here but have been checking this thread daily as I believe along the lines of Brent. Most of my retirement is now in cash and I am content with a 0% increase over the next couple years.

 

With that said….. Brent, I think the response you get from people has more to do with how you come across, as opposed to your message itself. Intentional or not, you come across as arrogant and almost belittling. While I agree with you, the fact is, it’s your opinion. And trying to lecture an opinion to grown men (and women) will never go over well. Even when you admit you are wrong, you spin it in a so it comes across as arrogant (that’s pretty hard to do). I sincerely appreciate your posts and will continue to listen to what you have to say. You just might want to try a different approach.

 

Carry on ladies……

 

That's all I was trying to say. But you did so much more eloquently.

[bushwacked]

I'm sure once the market does reach the price points I've forecasted - many of you will find a way to dis-credit me then too.

 

Well, that would only be fair if you credited yourself for your forecasts that don't come to fruition.

[Brentastic]

Well, that would only be fair if you credited yourself for your forecasts that don't come to fruition.

Dude, I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong - don't worry about that.

[Brentastic]

I rarely post here but have been checking this thread daily as I believe along the lines of Brent. Most of my retirement is now in cash and I am content with a 0% increase over the next couple years.

 

With that said….. Brent, I think the response you get from people has more to do with how you come across, as opposed to your message itself. Intentional or not, you come across as arrogant and almost belittling. While I agree with you, the fact is, it’s your opinion. And trying to lecture an opinion to grown men (and women) will never go over well. Even when you admit you are wrong, you spin it in a so it comes across as arrogant (that’s pretty hard to do). I sincerely appreciate your posts and will continue to listen to what you have to say. You just might want to try a different approach.

 

Carry on ladies……

I'm confident that if I could speak my ideas rather than write them, it would be clear that I'm not trying to belittle anyone - and the only thing that would shine through is pure passion. With that said, I only react when attacked and it's pretty hard to keep cool when everyone is backing you into a corner - I can take it but it's hard to keep my cool. I get defensive when people question my intelligence then a bunch of condescending ingratiaters pile on to feel better about themselves. So if I lash out, it's only because I'm being piled on. I have gotten much better at keeping my cool though and will continue to work on it.

 

Moving on, I feel privileged, BobWiley, that your 21st post in 7 years was in response to me It's nice to know that more than 2 people on these boards have the balls to contradict the herd. As you have noticed, most keep silent or pile on to gain favoritism from the 'majority' of the huddle. Most on here are the type of people who stand around and do nothing while someone is getting raped or robbed. There I go getting defensive again (not toward you, just the followers) - I can't help it, I'm fired up today. I got a big f*ckin chip on my shoulder and it shows on occasion.

[SEC=UGA]

I'm confident that if I could speak my ideas rather than write them, it would be clear that I'm not trying to belittle anyone - and the only thing that would shine through is pure passion. With that said, I only react when attacked and it's pretty hard to keep cool when everyone is backing you into a corner - I can take it but it's hard to keep my cool. I get defensive when people question my intelligence then a bunch of condescending ingratiaters pile on to feel better about themselves. So if I lash out, it's only because I'm being piled on. I have gotten much better at keeping my cool though and will continue to work on it.

 

Moving on, I feel privileged, BobWiley, that your 21st post in 7 years was in response to me It's nice to know that more than 2 people on these boards have the balls to contradict the herd. As you have noticed, most keep silent or pile on to gain favoritism from the 'majority' of the huddle. Most on here are the type of people who stand around and do nothing while someone is getting raped or robbed. There I go getting defensive again (not toward you, just the followers) - I can't help it, I'm fired up today. I got a big f*ckin chip on my shoulder and it shows on occasion.

 

Brent,

I think we all have egoes here, some more so than others. There is some piling on going on, but, you should know from being here for quite a while now that when you begin to question a persons individuality, insinuating that they are lemmings or herd animals, you are going to see that piling on ratchet up. The more you continue to dengrate the thoughts of others, rather than supporting your position with facts, the more they are going to pile on. Many on here are good at making arguments, they bring citations to the table (as have you in some cases), but for you to carte blanche (Sac, need a spelling ruling on that one you frog) dismiss them and their position by being condescending to them is only going to get you piled on more.

 

I do thing Bob and gee put it very well, something deranged in me wants this to continue, you know, the back and forth is kinda like a train wreck, and it is probably time to chill with some of the agression. And I would say, some (like me) are piling on just to get a rise out of you. Take it calm, put forth you POV and let the others post what they want.

 

This stuff isn't personal, or shouldn't be, it is simply differing opinions. Hopefully you can gain just as much from the other perspectives as we can gain from yours. Whether someone agrees at the end of the day or not, just remember you tried your best to set forth your argument and if they accept it great, if not, screw em, their loss, let it roll of your back.

[muck]

First, let me say that Brentastic was convinced he'd beat me in FF last year. He didn't. Epic fail.

 

Second, let me say that GTB is a genius. He took second in our league. To me.

 

Third, let me say that the interrelationships between psychology, politics, accounting standards, global capital flows and central bank monetary decisions are complicated. For most people, their economic beliefs are a little like their other religous beliefs --- a little bit of this and a little bit of that; whatever seems to explain the current situation the best. So, don't be surprised when some break out their slide rules or talk about M2 money supply. Also, don't be surprised when people consider the impact of gravitational forces on people's hormone levels and therefore their general sense of well-being (and therefore optimism or pessimism) which impact innate greed / fear impulses.

 

In sum: GTB is smart. I'm smarter. Brentastic is smart, but not as smart as either of us. Why? We went to TCU. He didn't. Also, this stuff is complicated and every prognosticator will be right eventually (Weigie, Brentastic, GTB and myself included). Anyone remember Elaine Garzarrelli?

 

TIP: Anyone who thinks they know something to be true (or not), please go read "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb (2nd edition) and report back.

Edited May 21, 2010 by muck

[Brentastic]

First, let me say that Brentastic was convinced he'd beat me in FF last year. He didn't. Epic fail.

 

Second, let me say that GTB is a genius. He took second in our league. To me.

 

Third, let me say that the interrelationships between psychology, politics, accounting standards, global capital flows and central bank monetary decisions are complicated. For most people, their economic beliefs are a little like their other religous beliefs --- a little bit of this and a little bit of that; whatever seems to explain the current situation the best. So, don't be surprised when some break out their slide rules or talk about M2 money supply. Also, don't be surprised when people consider the impact of gravitational forces on people's hormone levels and therefore their general sense of well-being (and therefore optimism or pessimism) which impact innate greed / fear impulses.

 

In sum: GTB is smart. I'm smarter. Brentastic is smart, but not as smart as either of us. Why? We went to TCU. He didn't. Also, this stuff is complicated and every prognosticator will be right eventually (Weigie, Brentastic, GTB and myself included). Anyone remember Elaine Garzarrelli?

 

TIP: Anyone who thinks they know something to be true (or not), please go read "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb (2nd edition) and report back.

Good post for the most part. A good part of investing and life is knowing what you know, the more you know, the more you realize you don't know. I get that. But there is a difference between falsely knowing and being confident in the probability of a given occurance. I didn't bet with weigie because as much as I have probability on my side, I understand that being wrong has a probability too and that must be accounted for.

 

P.S. You did previously play in and invent our scoring system. Really though, now that I have a year under my belt and fully understand the rules, I plan on winning this year. That is if my market passion doesn't consume me. Quitting FF altogether this year has been considered by me. Right now it's the last thing on my mind but we'll see how I feel when TC starts.

[Perchoutofwater]

So do we go below 10,000 today? How much of a role if any do you think the senate passing the over-reaction finance bill is having? How much of it is Europe?

[Brentastic]

So do we go below 10,000 today? How much of a role if any do you think the senate passing the over-reaction finance bill is having? How much of it is Europe?

We already did at the open - we gapped down to 9919 and bounced up from there. A HUGH battle going on today with tons of volume but it is the expiration day for May options. Since the gap down and subsequent bounce, we've been see-sawing between up 40 and down 40. Will be interesting to see how the day unfolds.

 

E2A: GS and JPM both up nearly 4% - there's a rumor that GS settled with the SEC. I personally don't think the Euro is influencing the market as much as some do.

Edited May 21, 2010 by Brentastic

[MikesVikes]

Most on here are the type of people who stand around and do nothing while someone is getting raped or robbed. There I go getting defensive again (not toward you, just the followers) - I can't help it, I'm fired up today. I got a big f*ckin chip on my shoulder and it shows on occasion.

 

In my book this crosses the line of trying to educate some Huddlers in the world of the economy. You are entitled to believe what you think will happen in the future in the stock market. If the dow crashes to 1000 or 3000 we have all been warned by you. If that indeed happens, thanks for that one. However, everyone else is equally entitled to their opinions of what they want to do with their money. If someone wants to invest all their money in coffee beans more power to them. Calling someone out for not believing what you do is just plain wrong and silly. Equating people to standng around and watching someone get raped or robbed? How do get there based on your economic beliefs?

[Brentastic]

In my book this crosses the line of trying to educate some Huddlers in the world of the economy. You are entitled to believe what you think will happen in the future in the stock market. If the dow crashes to 1000 or 3000 we have all been warned by you. If that indeed happens, thanks for that one. However, everyone else is equally entitled to their opinions of what they want to do with their money. If someone wants to invest all their money in coffee beans more power to them. Calling someone out for not believing what you do is just plain wrong and silly. Equating people to standng around and watching someone get raped or robbed? How do get there based on your economic beliefs?

That was in reference to all the negative piling on that has occurred. Opinions are fine and I welcome them - when those opinions turn into name calling and anger at me, that's when the line gets crossed...and that's what I was referring to.

 

It's a new day Mike, and I'm trying to move on. Is your post a fishing trip or just selective reading?

[Azazello1313]

As you have noticed, most keep silent or pile on to gain favoritism from the 'majority' of the huddle. Most on here are the type of people who stand around and do nothing while someone is getting raped or robbed.

 

seriously one of the most gutless, pathetic, childish comments I've ever seen on this site.

[Brentastic]

seriously one of the most gutless, pathetic, childish comments I've ever seen on this site.

Oh is it?

[Savage Beatings]

Rapes and robberies bore me... i would just walk away instead of watching.

[Perchoutofwater]

I don't agree with Brent, regarding how bad the market is going to get, or how he described the the ridicule he is getting. Still I see his point, and there is a tendency of some here just to pile on. Now I have no problem with someone making arguments or counterpoints, but all to often it is just name calling and one line gocha's that aren't meant to do anything other than to try to humiliate someone or to discredit someone rather then the point they are making.

[SEC=UGA]

I don't agree with Brent, regarding how bad the market is going to get, or how he described the the ridicule he is getting. Still I see his point, and there is a tendency of some here just to pile on. Now I have no problem with someone making arguments or counterpoints, but all to often it is just name calling and one line gocha's that aren't meant to do anything other than to try to humiliate someone or to discredit someone rather then the point they are making.

 

Peckerwood

[MikesVikes]

Rapes and robberies bore me... i would just walk away instead of watching.

 

That's what I'm talking about. This is where I would do it differently.

 

 

 

I would snap a pic with my phone first, then walk away.

[Duchess Jack]

• It's nice to know that more than 2 people on these boards have the balls to contradict the herd.

• As you have noticed, most keep silent or pile on to gain favoritism from the 'majority' of the huddle.

• Most on here are the type of people who stand around and do nothing while someone is getting raped or robbed.

 

 

Perhaps the problem isn't everyone else, Brent?

[Azazello1313]

I don't agree with Brent, regarding how bad the market is going to get, or how he described the the ridicule he is getting. Still I see his point, and there is a tendency of some here just to pile on. Now I have no problem with someone making arguments or counterpoints, but all to often it is just name calling and one line gocha's that aren't meant to do anything other than to try to humiliate someone or to discredit someone rather then the point they are making.

 

as far as name-calling and one liners....ok, you've got wiegie saying brent's hypothesis is idiotic, and you've got bushwanked being himself....other than that most of the dismissiveness and name-calling is coming directly from brent himself.

 

and you know, if you're in an argument and everyone disagrees with you, it's usually either because you either have a poor argument, or you are articulating it poorly. in brent's case, it's probably some of both. but the real point is, if you can't handle people disagreeing with you without lashing out like a frightened, cornered animal, you should probably stick to "safer" environments than the big scary internet.