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Brentastic

The Economy and Stock Market

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uh, you can't keep pushing your prediction horizon out to five years with each new post, so you are down to four years

You realize, of course, that you're effectively arguing with one of those guys on the street wearing a sandwich board that reads "the end is near."

Edited by yo mama

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You realize, of course, that you're effectively arguing with one of those guys on the street wearing a sandwich board that reads "the end is near."

 

:wacko:

 

You get to see the same guy a few years later wearing the same sign on the same street corner... not willing to admit that his opinion is skewed or wrong... I think it was last year when he stated that gold and silver are going to tank SOON!!, gold was around 1100, now at 1335... silver was around 16 and today stands at 27.94!

 

When opinions can cost people money, i.e. Piles with a response in Feb. last year saying that he started to believe Brent's opinions and moved into 75% cash missed a nice little ~ 15% pop in the market... it's hard to see Brent strap on his sign and climb onto his soapbox over and over again...

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You realize, of course, that you're effectively arguing with one of those guys on the street wearing a sandwich board that reads "the end is near."

*******************************

Edited by Brentastic

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:wacko:

 

You get to see the same guy a few years later wearing the same sign on the same street corner... not willing to admit that his opinion is skewed or wrong... I think it was last year when he stated that gold and silver are going to tank SOON!!, gold was around 1100, now at 1335... silver was around 16 and today stands at 27.94!

 

When opinions can cost people money, i.e. Piles with a response in Feb. last year saying that he started to believe Brent's opinions and moved into 75% cash missed a nice little ~ 15% pop in the market... it's hard to see Brent strap on his sign and climb onto his soapbox over and over again...

You fail to see the big picture. Sometimes I wonder how many people actually comprehend written words.

 

Also, I've NEVER had a strong opinion on gold or silver. I did/do see a bubble forming and I may have made a quick comment that a top could be near but I have never been adamant on the direction of gold or silver. Not in this uncertain environment.

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I predict that the stock market in inherently unpredictable for any length of time accurately.

 

There. I said it.

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Also I recently read that the stock market has ALWAYS risen in value in the 3rd year of a presidential cycle, and that goes back to the 1940's.

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Also I recently read that the stock market has ALWAYS risen in value in the 3rd year of a presidential cycle, and that goes back to the 1940's.

I recently read that too which now means that bias is mainstream and that the exact opposite will happen this year. Bank it.

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I recently read that too which now means that bias is mainstream and that the exact opposite will happen this year. Bank it.

 

Is that an official prediction? :wacko:

 

It has to do with political meddling in the economy Brent. That happens in the 3rd year as they gear up for another election cycle.

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Is that an official prediction? :wacko:

 

It has to do with political meddling in the economy Brent. That happens in the 3rd year as they gear up for another election cycle.

My only 'official' prediction is that we are still in a bear market that will bottom sometime around 2016. There will be large unsustainable rallies and sharp declines during this time but at the end of the day the dow will be below 5k and if the bottom stays above 3k we should consider ourselves lucky.

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My only 'official' prediction is that we are still in a bear market that will bottom sometime around 2016. There will be large unsustainable rallies and sharp declines during this time but at the end of the day the dow will be below 5k and if the bottom stays above 3k we should consider ourselves lucky.

2016 is five years out. Didn't wiegie wave his :wacko: finger about this earlier?

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this world is toast. so is the market. get into cash. buy some guns too.

 

 

You owe me money paranoid froot loop.

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So, with that in mind, today confirmed we have begun wave b (down) of Z (up) of wave 2 (up). The market should continue down for at least a week or maybe longer to complete this wave b of Z (of 2). The near term downsid range for this wave b is 1094-1143 in the S&P and 10,200-10,604 in the DJIA. As more of the structure of the decline unfolds, these wide ranges should narrow considerably. After the week or so down move that began yesterday, we will have one final leg up to complete wave Z (of 2). Then the dreaded wave 3 down will begin.

 

Bottom line: the market is nearing a major top which I originally thought started on Jan 19 and labeled as wave Y on that chart. As it turns out, that wave Y marked the end of a double zigzag correction. However, there has never been more than a tripple zigzag correction, so this leg up must be the final leg before the dreaded wave 3 down. Remember, all impulse waves consist of 5 waves (again, we are currently in a wave 2 correction) with wave 3 usually being the most severe/impulsive/dramatic of the 3 motive waves.

 

:wacko:

Edited by bushwacked

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Curious, if you see a sizeable correction but not a depression like myself - where do you see the market bottoming? I mean, the dow was just at 9600 (S&P 1010) at the end of June. So you must see a lower level or else we would just be sideways trading.

 

Serious question.

 

 

Dow gets to low 9's and or down into the 8's and I'll be doing all I can to convince my wife into letting me put in a few good sized transfers from cash to the market. Not all at once mind you, but sizeable chunks to me over the course of a few months.

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You fail to see the big picture. Sometimes I wonder how many people actually comprehend written words.

 

Also, I've NEVER had a strong opinion on gold or silver. I did/do see a bubble forming and I may have made a quick comment that a top could be near but I have never been adamant on the direction of gold or silver. Not in this uncertain environment.

 

Link to what you NEVER said...

 

 

Don't trust me - just look at all the crap that has ocurred the last 2 years. If you take a step back and see what happened and the measures our government took to correct it (massive bailouts) - it's baffling that a firm like GS still showed record profits in 2009 (HUGH RED FLAG, IMO). Does anybody really think it makes sense that the market rallied in the last year after all the poopy that has surfaced? You don't have to know a lick about economics or finance to see the obvious - if you can allow your mind to view what is and not absorb any other ideas or media/government influence.

 

Gold and silver are getting ready to tank too - so don't jump on that train now that it's too late. Good luck investors, I hope you consider my warnings.

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in brent's own mind, the only "official predictions" he's made are the ones that haven't yet been proven completely wrong.

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Link to what you NEVER said...

 

 

Don't trust me - just look at all the crap that has ocurred the last 2 years. If you take a step back and see what happened and the measures our government took to correct it (massive bailouts) - it's baffling that a firm like GS still showed record profits in 2009 (HUGH RED FLAG, IMO). Does anybody really think it makes sense that the market rallied in the last year after all the poopy that has surfaced? You don't have to know a lick about economics or finance to see the obvious - if you can allow your mind to view what is and not absorb any other ideas or media/government influence.

 

Gold and silver are getting ready to tank too - so don't jump on that train now that it's too late. Good luck investors, I hope you consider my warnings.

My post is correct in that I've never had a strong opinion on gold/silver which is why I never focus on it in my posts. I admitted originally that I may have speculated on it but again, I was never adamant about the direction of those commodities.

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Are we starting the double dip, Brent? What does your models show?

 

Gas prices rocketing sky-high, home prices continue to drop,grocery prices rising through the roof, jobs market not rising, stock market starting to tumble, inflation on the increase and now unrest in the Middle East and Midwest of America.

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Are we starting the double dip, Brent? What does your models show?

 

Gas prices rocketing sky-high, home prices continue to drop,grocery prices rising through the roof, jobs market not rising, stock market starting to tumble, inflation on the increase and now unrest in the Middle East and Midwest of America.

 

Hmmm. Reminds me of '73. :wacko:

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Are we starting the double dip, Brent? What does your models show?

 

Gas prices rocketing sky-high, home prices continue to drop,grocery prices rising through the roof, jobs market not rising, stock market starting to tumble, inflation on the increase and now unrest in the Middle East and Midwest of America.

It could be happening now. I shorted the ES again late last week in attempt to pick the top. It's my 3rd attempt in the last month, with every attempt being at a short term top (i.e. I never lost money shorting). Everything seems to be lining up for the resumption of the bear market but this rally has been resilient, rising on bad economic data etc... I won't be confident that a major leg down has begun until we see at least a bearish engulfing candlestick on the weekly chart. The probability of the double dip (at the least) would increase with the same pattern on a monthly chart. But as of right now, it's waaaaayyyyy too early to predict anything other than a minor pullback. From an EW perspective, the timing is ripe for the next leg down, however.

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Hmmm. Reminds me of '73. :wacko:

 

 

Pirates killing American hostages and the President says "OH WELL "

 

Iranian warships on the prowl "OH WELL "

 

Hillery running around dodging sniper fire as she says Israel has nothing to worry about. Just dont set up these illegal settlements.

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Pirates killing American hostages and the President says "OH WELL "

 

Iranian warships on the prowl "OH WELL "

 

Hillery running around dodging sniper fire as she says Israel has nothing to worry about. Just dont set up these illegal settlements.

Yet some people think everything is fine and doom and gloomers (realists) like me are just quacks. I hope people are prepared for the coming depression.

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Yet some people think everything is fine and doom and gloomers (realists) like me are just quacks. I hope people are prepared for the coming depression.

 

Brent? Umm . . . I dont think agreeing with the guy that walks around with a sandwich board saying "the end is near! repent your sins!" helps your cause.

 

Just sayin'

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Brent? Umm . . . I dont think agreeing with the guy that walks around with a sandwich board saying "the end is near! repent your sins!" helps your cause.

 

Just sayin'

And who is 'that guy'? Moneymakers? Me?

 

Confused.

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