The Economy and Stock Market

[wiegie]

Investor complacency is obsene right now. I mean really, the Fed and all the big banks must just laugh at all the sheep.

 

On a sidenote - are you guys really still quibbling about left and right... Please realize the magnitude of global corruption. The left and right are on the same team, they work for the global elite, the central bankers who really run the world. Maybe if we focused on the real problem, we could make a difference. All it would take is mass non-compliance and we could rid the elite scum from our control. That's really all it would take.

OK, now I am really confused.** How can the stock market be controlled by the world's central bankers while at the same time the Elliott Wave Theory Hypothesis says that the markets are controlled by investor mood swings?

 

 

 

**Please note that I am not really confused at all... Brent is.

[SEC=UGA]

OK, now I am really confused.** How can the stock market be controlled by the world's central bankers while at the same time the Elliott Wave Theory Hypothesis says that the markets are controlled by investor mood swings?

 

 

 

**Please note that I am not really confused at all... Brent is.

 

I'm fraking confused....

[westvirginia]

We clearly disagree fundamentally on the correct course for the country but you, Perch and others take it to extremes. Earlier you tried to tie Obama into a forty-year-old quote which was just ridiculous. I think we're a lot less married to Obama than you are to your anti-Obama obsessions.

 

I wasn't trying to tie the quotes to obamessiah, merely to illustrate the political hyperbole goes both ways. Someone pointed out the doofus scare tactics on one side of the aisle, I merely pointed out the glass house thingy.

 

The presidents just keep getting worse and worse. Bush was a statist who claimed he wasn't, slick willie didn't really deny it but was as anti-civil rights as shrub, and now obama is a statist who, to top it all off, looks like he's WAY out of his depth. Yes, I do hope his agenda fails, but not the country, not yet anyway. Give me a couple more terms of Nancy and another obamessiah term and I probably will be ready to topple the whole mess and start over.

[evil_gop_liars]

We clearly disagree fundamentally on the correct course for the country but you, Perch and others take it to extremes. Earlier you tried to tie Obama into a forty-year-old quote which was just ridiculous. I think we're a lot less married to Obama than you are to your anti-Obama obsessions.

 

When you believe in fictional books written by bitter lesbians like Harry Potter and Atlas Shrugged your reality can become a bit askew.

[WaterMan]

From that article in the Greece thread:

He's got his, and to hell with everyone else.

 

He liked comparing Greece and America alot. Here he must be talking about our top 5%.

 

Think of Greece as California

 

He had me rolling here.

[driveby]

Deficit is no big deal

 

wiegie?

[cre8tiff]

So go ahead my imaginary friends, twist my words and distort what I've said. You guys are so married to your guy that you have to demonize anyone who disagrees. But that's OK, enjoy your mental illness.

 

It's true. I've a man-crush on wiegie.

[bushwacked]

I think we're a lot less married to Obama than you are to your anti-Obama obsessions.

 

Obviously, but for WV it is Obliviously.

[wiegie]

Deficit is no big deal

 

wiegie?

I think the deficit is quite a bit less of a big deal than popular opinion thinks it is. (However, I definitely would not go as far as Galbraith and suggest that deficits don't matter at all.)

 

I think the following quote (from economist Brad Delong) is useful (particularly the points about the US borrowing in its own currency and the markets showing very little indication that they are scared of a US default):

 

Any story about the U.S. deficit today that does comparisons between the U.S. and Europe aiming to inform its readers really needs to make six points:

 

1) Starting around 2020 the U.S. has to finally solve the problem that Ronald Reagan created in the 1980 presidential campaign with his claim that the federal government could tax like Alabama and spend like Connecticut and somehow everything would work out. It won't. The U.S. has another decade to decide whether it wants to tax like Alabama and spend like Alabama, or tax like Connecticut and spend like Connecticut.

 

2) Financial markets continue to be astonishingly confident that the U.S. will in fact solve this problem: U.S. Treasury bonds continue to sell at astonishingly high valuations.

 

3) As long as unemployment is unduly elevated--above 7.5%, say--our major economic ill connected with big deficits is not excessive deficits forecast for the 2020s and beyond but excessive unemployment and idle capacity now.

 

4) An even larger U.S. budget deficit now would be a useful tool to help cure our major current economic ill by booting demand: right now the problem is not that our deficit is too large for the economy but that it is too small.

 

5) Some fear that large deficits today are undermining financial market confidence in the long-term fiscal stability of the United States. So far there are absolutely no--absolutely no--signs in financial markets that our current large deficits: U.S. Treasury bonds continue to sell at astonishingly high valuations.

 

6) Should financial markets begin at some point in the future to lose confidence in the long-term fiscal stability of the United States, that does not mean that the United States turns into Greece. Greece does not control the currency in which its government borrows. The U.S. does. That makes a huge difference.

I also think it is well-worth reminding people that comparing the borrowing to of US government to household or business borrowing just doesn't make sense (because, unlike both households and businesses, the US government borrows in a currency it controls and because, unlike individuals, the US government does not have to die).

 

I would, however, be concerned about major deficits when the economy is doing well (because then crowding out is more of a problem). I think the government should try to work towards countercyclical deficits.

[Brentastic]

OK, now I am really confused.** How can the stock market be controlled by the world's central bankers while at the same time the Elliott Wave Theory Hypothesis says that the markets are controlled by investor mood swings?

 

 

 

**Please note that I am not really confused at all... Brent is.

That was a 'sidenote' which means I got off topic and was referring to the political argument going on between various huddlers. Although, if the global elite were controlling the markets, the EWT would then reflect the mood of the global elite rather than the mood of everyday investors. Either way, the EWT tracks the collective mood of investors, regardless of who those investors are. Labeling 'who' the majority of those investors are is irrelevant - the only relevance is that 'they' have established a pattern over time.

[SEC=UGA]

That was a 'sidenote' which means I got off topic and was referring to the political argument going on between various huddlers. Although, if the global elite were controlling the markets, the EWT would then reflect the mood of the global elite rather than the mood of everyday investors. Either way, the EWT tracks the collective mood of investors, regardless of who those investors are. Labeling 'who' the majority of those investors are is irrelevant - the only relevance is that 'they' have established a pattern over time.

 

Does it account for a change in the investor pool that has occurred over the past 15 to 25 years?

[bushwacked]

Does it account for a change in the investor pool that has occurred over the past 15 to 25 years?

 

 

From what I can tell, it accounts for anything and everything, and no matter what happens, it can be justified by simply changing your claim on what part of the wave cycle you're on. For instance, The third wave is coming, but instead of last week being the beginning of the apex, it was a minor ripple oscillation and the third wave is still coming. It's full-proof really, like religion.

[SEC=UGA]

From what I can tell, it accounts for anything and everything, and no matter what happens, it can be justified by simply changing your claim on what part of the wave cycle you're on. For instance, The third wave is coming, but instead of last week being the beginning of the apex, it was a minor ripple oscillation and the third wave is still coming. It's full-proof really, like religion.

 

My religion thread got gunned, so I won't comment on that...

[cre8tiff]

My religion thread got gunned, so I won't comment on that...

 

Let's ask Ursa for His opinion.

[Ursa Majoris]

Let's ask Ursa for His opinion.

I'll be along later. I need to give some guy two stone tablets with some writing on.

[SEC=UGA]

I'll be along later. I need to give some guy two stone tablets with some writing on.

 

 

[Big Country]

I'll be along later. I need to give some guy two stone tablets with some writing on.

 

Nice.

 

One of my favorite movie scenes is from Mel Brooks "History of the World", when Moses comes down from the mountain with three tablets. He starts off his speech with I give you these 15... (tablet falls and breaks), these 10, 10 commandments.

 

Makes me chuckle every time.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

I feel dirty for feeling better that the market is heading south, but I pulled to the sidelines last Thursday afternoon during the big fall at DOW 10,500 or so and have been kicking myself this week for doing so. Now the question is do I get back in or just sit back for a while still...(the market will now finish up 200 pts today).

[MikesVikes]

I feel dirty for feeling better that the market is heading south, but I pulled to the sidelines last Thursday afternoon during the big fall at DOW 10,500 or so and have been kicking myself this week for doing so. Now the question is do I get back in or just sit back for a while still...(the market will now finish up 200 pts today).

 

You don't have to make a "all or nothing" decision. If you think the market has declined over a few days and is ready to rebound then put a few bucks back into play.

[Brentastic]

I feel dirty for feeling better that the market is heading south, but I pulled to the sidelines last Thursday afternoon during the big fall at DOW 10,500 or so and have been kicking myself this week for doing so. Now the question is do I get back in or just sit back for a while still...(the market will now finish up 200 pts today).

I won't even bother telling you my opinion

 

Keep in mind, the DOW tried to get back to 11K from the last 2 weeks decline and failed at 10,920 - this price was the high yesterday and the highest price reached in the DOW since last week's tank. The low today in the DOW is 10,541. So what happened, is the market tested 11K and abruptly turned at 10,920 and is now down 380 points from that price in less than 24 hours. I think it's clear - the current trend is DOWN.

 

That doesn't mean we won't rally on Monday, something like the last 35/39 Mondays have been green (closed up) - but it's not wise to fight the trend, IMO.

[tbimm]

Eventually in our life time the Dow is gonna crash hard and you will all see that I was right. I apologize for having absolutely no idea when that day will come. In the mean time please just sell all your stocks so we get closer to my predictions.

Fixed.

[bushwacked]

I think it's clear - the current trend is DOWN.

 

Clearly

[Avernus]

Clearly

 

link says "no data"

[TimC]

link says "no data"

 

Brent is finally proven correct.

[bushwacked]

Brent is finally proven correct.

 

Maybe this one will work