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NCAA Tournament


Gopher
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With some of the smaller conference tournaments under way this week, I figured it was time to get this thread rolling once again. If nothing else, it generates some good conversation for those of us that are college basketball junkies. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts, make an argument for/against a particular team, etc.

 

For those of you who are not that familiar with how the selection process works, here is a brief summary in a nutshell... There are 31 NCAA Division I conferences that receive automatic bids. Other than the Ivy League, which has no conference tournament, all automatic bids are determined by the conference tournament winners. In the Ivy League, it's determined by final conference standings. Cornell leads the league by two games, with two to play, and swept both Harvard and Princeton... Therefore, Cornell is the first team that is officially in this year's NCAA tournament. Over the years, the number of conferences receiving automatic bids has changed... conferences have combined in some cases, and new conferences have started up as well. Since the field expanded to 64 teams, though, the one constant has been 34 at-large bids. Because the committee has chosen to stick with that number (34), and given that there are currently 31 conferences receiving automatic bids (used to be 30), there is currently a "play-in" game between the 64th and 65th ranked teams, to determine the field of 64. An "at-large" bid simply means that the team is selected by the committee, rather than playing their way in by winning their conference.

 

Still a lot of basketball left to be played over the next 10 days, but here is how I see the field (so far):

 

GREEN = OFFICIALLY IN

BLUE = IN (my opinion)

RED = ON THE BUBBLE

PURPLE = X-factor teams (Conference favorites that would otherwise be on the bubble, or at least in the discussion)

ORANGE = Teams that steal a bid by winning their tournament, that would otherwise not have made it

 

Conferences that will receive one bid, no matter who wins their conference tournament. In other words, these conferences have ZERO chance of receiving an at-large bid (15 automatic bids):

 

America East

Atlantic Sun

Big Sky

Big South

Big West

Ivy

MEAC

Northeast

Ohio Valley

Patriot

Southern

Southland

Summit

Sun Belt

SWAC

 

Conferences that COULD make an argument that they deserve an at-large bid. In other words, if someone other than the #1 seed or conference favorite wins the conference tournament, these teams could at least make the argument that they deserve consideration for an at-large bid, based on their RPI ranking (the criteria I used for this was having an RPI in the top 50-75 (roughly), but not necessarily a "lock" to make the tournament). RPI (as of 3/4/10) is in parentheses for these teams:

 

Colonial Athletic - Old Dominion (38)

MAAC - Siena (40)

Mid-American - Kent State (48)

Western Athletic - Utah State (32)

 

Conferences that have at least one team that is a "lock" to make the tournament, in my opinion. In other words, teams in blue could, in theory, lose the rest of their games and still make the tournament:

 

Big Ten - Ohio State (28), Purdue (12), Michigan State (24), Wisconsin (18), Illinois (70), Minnesota (77)

ACC - Duke (3), Maryland (20), Clemson (25), Florida State (36), Virginia Tech (53), Wake Forest (34), Georgia Tech (36)

Atlantic 10 - Temple (15), Xavier (19), Richmond (30), Rhode Island (29), Dayton (42), Charlotte (60)

Big East - Syracuse 92), Villanova (7), West Virginia (6), Pittsburgh (9), Georgetown (14), Marquette (46), Louisville (35), Notre Dame (63), Connecticut (49), South Florida (67), Seton Hall (62), Cincinnati (65)

Big 12 - Kansas (1), Kansas State (5), Baylor (10), Missouri (31), Texas A&M (11), Texas (26), Oklahoma State (27)

Conference USA - UTEP (43), Memphis (51), UAB (41)

Horizon - Butler (17)

Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa (20), Wichita State (50)

Mountain West - New Mexico (8), BYU (23), UNLV (44), San Diego State (33)

Pac-10 - California (22), Arizona State (54), Washington (55)

Southeastern - Kentucky (4), Vanderbilt (13), Tennessee (16), Florida (52), Mississippi State (59), Mississippi (56)

West Coast - Gonzaga (39), St. Mary's (45)

 

So, here is a brief breakdown of everything above:

 

- 15 automatics in conferences that will only get one bid, no matter what happens.

- 31 teams that, in my opinion, are locks (teams in blue).

- 4 "x-factor" teams that could potentially take away a spot from another at-large team, if they fail to win their conference.

- 28 teams in red (on the bubble). Some may be further out on the bubble than others, but I believe that all of these 28 teams have not been officially eliminated from the discussion... In other words, short of winning their conference tournament, these 28 teams have a scenario in which they could make the tournament, or at least make a strong arguement.

 

Of course, in any of the 12 conferences that have "locks", a team from out of nowhere could win their conference tournament as well, and essentially "steal" a bid from another at-large contender. In fact, that's almost a sure thing... the question is where does it happen? Without knowing that information, what we basically have is 19 remaining bids (65 minus 15 automatics and 31 teams in blue) for all of the teams in red to fight for. That number (19) will decrease if/when a team that is not mentioned above wins their conference tournament (not including the 15 conferences that I listed as one-bid conferences).

 

What I will do over the next day or two will be further evaluate the teams in red. I will post my information one conference at a time... Feel free to add any input you might have. Based off of my evaluations/comparisons, I will come up with my Field of 65, assuming that the field was selected now. This projected field will change as the conference tournaments progress, and I will update my information accordingly.

Edited by Gopher
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For the purpose of editing my list of who's officially in/out, I'm posting this again without my commentary:

 

GREEN = OFFICIALLY IN

BLUE = IN (my opinion)

RED = ON THE BUBBLE

ORANGE = Teams that steal a bid by winning their tournament, that would otherwise not have made it

 

America East

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State (20-14)

Big Sky

Big South - Winthrop (19-13)

Big West

Colonial Athletic - Old Dominion (26-8)

Horizon - Butler (28-4)

Ivy - Cornell (27-4)

MAAC - Siena (27-6)

MEAC

Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa (28-4)

Northeast

Ohio Valley - Murray State (30-4)

Patriot

Southern - Wofford (26-8)

Southland

Summit - Oakland (26-8)

Sun Belt - North Texas (24-8)

SWAC

West Coast - St. Mary's (26-6)

 

Mid-American - Kent State (48)

Western Athletic - Utah State (32)

Big Ten - Ohio State (28), Purdue (12), Michigan State (24), Wisconsin (18), Illinois (70), Minnesota (77)

ACC - Duke (3), Maryland (20), Clemson (25), Florida State (36), Virginia Tech (53), Wake Forest (34), Georgia Tech (36)

Atlantic 10 - Temple (15), Xavier (19), Richmond (30), Rhode Island (29), Dayton (42), Charlotte (60)

Big East - Syracuse 92), Villanova (7), West Virginia (6), Pittsburgh (9), Georgetown (14), Marquette (46), Louisville (35), Notre Dame (63), Connecticut (49), South Florida (67), Seton Hall (62), Cincinnati (65)

Big 12 - Kansas (1), Kansas State (5), Baylor (10), Missouri (31), Texas A&M (11), Texas (26), Oklahoma State (27)

Conference USA - UTEP (43), Memphis (51), UAB (41)

Missouri Valley - Wichita State (50)

Mountain West - New Mexico (8), BYU (23), UNLV (44), San Diego State (33)

Pac-10 - California (22), Arizona State (54), Washington (55)

Southeastern - Kentucky (4), Vanderbilt (13), Tennessee (16), Florida (52), Mississippi State (59), Mississippi (56)

West Coast - Gonzaga (39)

Edited by Gopher
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Since CD commented on a Big 12 team, I'll start there:

Update 3/6: Kansas won @Missouri, KSU lost to ISU at home, Baylor beat Texas, Texas A&M won at Oklahoma, and OSU beat Nebraska. Records updated to include these games.

 

BIG 12

 

Kansas Jayhawks

29-2 (15-1)

RPI: 1

SOS: 13

 

Wins vs top 50: KSU (twice), Baylor, @Texas A&M, @Temple, California, @Texas, Missouri (twice), Cornell, Memphis(N)

 

Bad losses: None... Only two losses on the season were @Tennessee (16) and @Oklahoma State (27).

 

Status: Arguably the best team in the country, the Jayhawks are one of three teams who are locks for a #1 seed. No matter what happens in the Big 12 tournament, they're one of the top four overall teams.

 

Kansas State Wildcats

24-6 (11-5)

RPI: 5

SOS: 5

 

Wins vs top 50: @Baylor, Texas A&M, Xavier, Texas, Missouri, Dayton(N), @UNLV

 

Bad losses: Worst loss is Mississippi (57) on a neutral court their home loss Saturday to Iowa State (139).

 

Status: One of the 3-4 teams in the discussion for the fourth and final #1 seed. Probably need to win the Big 12 Championship, or at least reach the final, for that to happen, depending on what happens in the other top conferences (Big East, ACC, and Big 10). Worst case is they're a #2 seed... Even if they were to lose early in the Big 12 tournament, I'm not sure there would be enough scenarios for other teams to pass them and drop them to a #3. I really like this team's guard play... No reason to think they don't win at least 2-3 games in late March.

 

Edit: By losing at home to Iowa State, KSU has all but eliminated their chances of a #1 seed. Could still happen if they win the Big 12, but unlikely.

 

Baylor Bears

24-6 (11-5)

RPI: 10

SOS: 26

 

Wins vs top 50: Texas A&M, Xavier (N), Texas (twice), Oklahoma State, Missouri

 

Bad losses: Alabama (103) on a neutral court, and @Colorado (112). The other four losses on their schedule are "quality" losses, including their only home loss of the season (KSU).

 

Status: Top-25 team that should be somewhere in the 5-7 (seed) range, depending on how they finish in the conference tournament. Teams that dominated at home always scare me somewhat, though, and Baylor falls into that category. The 'Bama and Colorado losses prove that they're vulnerable away from Waco. Still, it's good to see this program finally turn the corner after all of their past turmoil.

 

Missouri Tigers

22-9 (10-6)

RPI: 31

SOS: 52

 

Wins vs top 50: Old Dominion(N), Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas

 

Bad losses: @Oral Roberts (116), @Oklahoma (101)

 

Status: No truly solid road wins, but no really bad home losses, either. Once again, not a lot to prove they can beat tough competition away from home, other than the Old Dominion win at a neutral site. Will probably fall somewhere in the 6-9 range, in terms of seeding.

 

Texas A&M Aggies

22-8 (11-5)

RPI: 11

SOS: 3

 

Wins vs top 50: Clemson(N), @Missouri, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma State

 

Bad losses: Worst loss is @Washington (53)

 

Status: Of the three 10-5 teams in this conference, I like this team more than Baylor or Missouri. The Aggies' schedule is second to none... Their eight losses include close contests against the likes of West Virginia, New Mexico, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor... All away from home. Only home loss was to Kansas. I think this is a legitimate 5-seed that can play their way up to a 4... no worse than a 6 if they struggle down the stretch.

 

Texas Longhorns

23-8 (9-7)

RPI: 26

SOS: 44

 

Wins vs top 50: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State (twice)

 

Bad losses: @Oklahoma (101) is really only glaring loss, in terms of RPI, but I wouldn't call it bad. Other games they should have won would be the Baylor home game, as well as the game against another of this year's big under-performers, UConn.

 

Status: Texas is hard to figure out. Started the season with 17 straight wins, including Pitt, Michigan State, and Texas A&M, and moved to #1 in the country. They're 6-7 since then, and although none of their losses are bad losses, they certainly have proven that they are not a top-10 team, much less the #1 team in the nation. Guard play is a huge concern for the Longhorns, which is never a good thing come tournament time. I have a much easier time seeing this team losing in the first round than I do winning 2-3 games, but you never know. Depth is not an issue... In fact, it might be part of the problem... Nobody in the backcourt has really come to the forefront on this team. They should fall somewhere in the 6-7 range, as far as a seed, and I would be surprised to see them win more than one game.

 

Oklahoma State Cowboys

21-9 (9-7)

RPI: 27

SOS: 19

 

Wins vs top 50: @Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Kansas

Bad losses: Worst three, none of which are terrible, were @Tulsa (72), @Oklahoma (101), @Texas Tech (64)

 

Status: Beating the top team in the country, by itself, doesn't get you into the tournament. Beating #1 KU, #5 KSU (on the road), as well as quality wins against A&M and Baylor, should. The bottom line is that this team's quality wins far outweigh their worst losses. The Cowboys are pretty much a lock... I think they're in no matter what they do in their conference tournament, probably in the 8-10 seed range. Teams with a major scorer (Anderson) like OSU can be vulnerable if that player goes cold. On the other hand, if he heats up, they could win a couple of games, at least (think Davidson with Curry two years ago).

 

Big 12 Wrap-up: The unique thing about the Big 12 is that there really isn't much left to figure out, at least in terms of who's in and who's out. They have seven teams that are in for sure, in my opinion, and nobody else even close to the tournament radar. Barring one of those other teams (Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Colorado, Iowa State, or Nebraska) somehow winning the conference tournament, we already know exactly which teams from this conference will make the tournament. The only other conference I can say that about, for sure, is the Ivy League (since Cornell has now clinched). I guess the only real question for this conference is whether or not KSU can grab that #1 seed. The other thing worth noting about the Big 12 is that there are an awful lot of top teams with "bad" losses against Oklahoma. Let's not kid ourselves... the Sooners are not as bad as their triple-digit RPI suggests. I don't care who you are... a road loss to OU is not a "bad" loss. If anything, it just shows that RPI only means so much.

Edited by Gopher
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Another fairly easy conference to analyze, but for a different reason, is the Pac-10:

 

Updated 3/6: In their final conference games, all three contenders won (Cal @Stanford, ASU vs. UCLA, and Washington @Oregon State). Records have been updated accordingly.

 

Pac-10

 

California Golden Bears

21-9 (13-5)

RPI: 22

SOS: 9

 

Wins vs top 50: None

 

Bad losses: A one-point home loss to UCLA (146) was probably their worst of the year. Their next four "worst" losses were all on the road, and all in-conference... @Oregon State (176), @USC (105), @Arizona (86), and @Washington (53).

 

Status: Cal is a perfect example of why I have a problem with the idea of putting too much stock in RPI rankings. If you look only at who Cal has beat and who they've lost to (and the RPI rankings of those teams), there is no way the Bears belong in the tournament. Their "best" wins are outside of the top 50, while their "worst" losses dip well into triple digits. If you look at Cal's own RPI ranking, however, there is no way they get left out. Cal has lost nine games this season. Other than the five conference losses listed above, they lost to the following teams (all on the road or neutral site): Kansas (1), Syracuse (2), New Mexico (8), and Ohio State (29). So, basically, California lost one home game and four road games in conference, and four non-home games to non-conference opponents... two of the four losses were to the best two teams in the country, while the other two were against top-ten opponents as well (both of which were single-digit losses).

 

There is no way Cal should be left out of this year's tournament. About the only thing Cal can be faulted for is this... All of their non-conference opponents are either ranked 29 or higher (lost all four), or 104 and below (won all eight). Had they scheduled some middle-of-the-pack non-conference opponents, we wouldn't even be discussing whether or not the Bears belong. So, rather than focusing too much on rankings, let's look at the facts... The Pac-10 has been one of the elite 6-7 basketball conferences for decades. The conference, as a whole, is down this year, no doubt. But, California is clearly the best team in what is still one of the top 9-10 conferences in the country, and there is no way they should be left out, no matter who wins the Pac-10 tournament. All of those other 8-9 conferences (including C-USA, Atlantic 10, and Mountain West) have at least one lock this year, and are projected to have a minimum of 2-3 bids. Cal is in... if nothing else, because they are the best team in a conference that is better, top to bottom, than some of those other conferences (even this year).

 

Arizona State Sun Devils

22-9 (12-6)

RPI: 54

SOS: 70

 

Wins vs top 50: San Diego State (31)

 

Bad losses: Just like Cal, ASU's "worst" losses are in the Pac-10... @UCLA (146), @USC (105), Arizona (86).

 

Status: Just like Cal is clearly the best team in their conference, ASU is pretty clearly #2. I don't like their chances as an at-large bid, but if anybody other than Cal has a shot, it's the Sun Devils. Just like I mentioned above with Cal, ASU doesn't have any bad losses outside of their own conference. The problem that the Pac-10 has, though, is that nobody really beat anybody out of conference, so their RPI rankings as a group are inherently bad. It's hard to make themselves look good when they're all only beating "bad" teams (themselves), at least bad teams on paper. Still, I think if ASU can make it to the Pac-10 title game, and then lose to Cal in the final, they could at least make the argument that they belong. I think it would be close, and I'd have to see what else plays out to determine if they would be in or out at that point.

 

Washington Huskies

21-9 (11-7)

RPI: 53

SOS: 60

 

Wins vs top 50: Texas A&M (11), California (22)

 

Bad losses: Same story... Washington's worst four losses are within conference play, including an ugly home loss against Oregon (158), @UCLE (146), and two losses to USC (105). The Huskies lost twice out of conference... @Texas Tech (64), and against Georgetown (14) on a neutral court.

 

Status: So, if ASU can make an argument that they deserve a bid, then why can't Washington? Bottom line... the bubble conversation is usually far too crowded as it is, but who knows? Stranger things have happened. I know one thing for sure... the only way for either of these teams to be in for sure, is for them to win the Pac-10 title.

 

Pac-10 Wrap-up: It's like the old "chicken vs. egg" scenario... Is the Pac-10 as bad as we think they are, or is the notion that they're down a bit overblown due to the whole RPI thing? I think it's some of both... the conference didn't do itself any favors in terms of who they played out of conference, or who they beat for that matter. On the other hand, they all kind of beat up on each other during the regular season, which didn't help any of their individual rankings at all. Like I said above, Cal should be in, while the other two teams mentioned are certainly long-shots, but at least worth mentioning.

Edited by Gopher
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Updated 3/6: ODU beat Towson, Siena beat Manhattan, Utah State beat NMSU, Butler beat Milwaukee, NIU beat Bradley, and Wichita State beat Illinois State. Records have been updated accordingly.

 

Updated 3/8: Old Dominion and Siena won their conference tournaments, and St. Mary's beat Gonzaga in the WCC final.

 

Colonial Athletic

 

Old Dominion Monarchs

26-8 (15-3)

RPI: 37

SOS: 88

 

Wins vs top 50: @Georgetown (14)

 

Bad losses: Worst loss was @George Mason (155). The other seven losses were all away from home, against teams in the top 75 (RPI).

 

Status: Old Dominion is 15-0 at home this season. Although the road win at Georgetown was their only real "quality" win, they also beat four teams ranked between 50-75 in RPI... Williams & Mary (58) twice, and Charlotte (59), VCU (66), and Marshall (68) at home. The problem I see with this team, as a potential at-large bid, is that they failed to beat the other potential tournament teams on their schedule. They had several chances to pick up key road/neutral wins this season, and only capitalized in the Georgetown game. The rest were all losses... Missouri, Dayton, Richmond, Northern Iowa, and Mississippi State. I like their chances to win the Colonial tournament, but if they don't, I think they're probably still an at-large team.

 

 

MAAC

 

Siena Saints

26-6 (17-1)

RPI: 40

SOS: 131

 

Wins vs top 50: None.

 

Bad losses: @Niagara (135)... their only conference loss.

 

Status: Positives are that the Saints not only went 14-0 at home, but also dominated their conference with a 17-1 record. Unfortunately, though, they came up winless in four chances to beat teams on the road, in the top 50 RPI... @Temple (15), @Butler (17), @Northern Iowa (23), and @Georgia Tech (35). So, the question becomes... Does dominating a conference like the MAAC impress the committee enough to get Siena an at-large bid? I don't think so... quality road/neutral wins are a must for at-large teams, and Siena doesn't have any. Unlike last year, they need to win the MAAC tourney this year to make the dance.

 

 

Mid-American

 

Kent State Golden Flashes

23-8 (12-3)

RPI: 42

SOS: 88

 

Wins vs top 50: UAB (41)

 

Bad losses: Bowling Green (182) and WI-Green Bay (105) at home, and @Miami-Ohio (148)

 

Status: Barely in the RPI top 50 a week ago, Kent State continues to climb, winning 13 of their last 14 games. Unfortunately, though, they didn't do anything out of conference, particularly away from home, to help their cause as an at-large team. Against their top three such opponents, they lost by 12 @Pittsburgh, 16 @Xavier, and 22 @South Florida. I'm afraid the lack of quality wins translates to Kent State needing to win their tournament to make the dance.

 

 

Western Athletic

 

Utah State Aggies

25-6 (14-2)

RPI: 31

SOS: 104

 

Wins vs top 50: BYU (21), Wichita State (47)

 

Bad losses: Worst two losses were a one-point loss at instate rival Utah (149) in November, and another road loss in December @Long Beach State (122). Only home loss of the year was to St. Mary's (46).

 

Status: After starting 0-2 in conference play, the "other" Aggies have rolled off 14 wins in a row. Based on the win over BYU, I give Utah State a slight edge over teams like Siena and Kent State.

 

 

Horizon

 

Butler Bulldogs

27-4 (18-0)

RPI: 17

SOS: 83

 

Wins vs top 50: Xavier (19), Ohio State (29), and Siena (40)

 

Bad losses: Worst was Minnesota (76) on a neutral court.

 

Status: This team is ranked in the top 15 in the country, currently, so there's no question they'll be in the tournament. Based on the past few seasons, we know Butler can win a game or two when they play the underdog role... the question becomes whether they can win tournament games when they're EXPECTED to do so. No real "bad" losses for the Bulldogs this season, but they didn't win any big games on the road, either. If this team gets seeded in the 4-5 range, they could be vulnerable against another solid mid-major opponent in the 11 or 12 slot. Butler enters the post-season as one of the hottest teams in the nation, though, having won 18 straight games (since a December loss at UAB).

 

Missouri Valley

 

Northern Iowa Panthers

27-4 (15-3)

RPI: 23

SOS: 112

 

Wins vs top 50: Old Dominion (37), Siena (40), Wichita State (47)

 

Bad losses: @Evansville (248), @Bradley (102), and DePaul (207) on a neutral court.

 

Status: The Panthers have some solid wins against a couple of other bubble teams in ODU and Siena, but they're home wins. Non-conference schedule was nothing spectacular, but they're still 27-4 in one of the better mid-major conferences. Northern Iowa should be in, but I'm not convinced that they're much of a threat in the tournament. One win, maybe.

 

 

Wichita State Shockers

25-8 (12-6)

RPI: 47

SOS: 118

 

Wins vs top 50: Northern Iowa (23)

 

Bad losses: Road games at Evansville (248), Drake (178), Creighton (114), and Bradley (102).

 

Status: The Shockers have some work to do. Other than protecting their home court against conference leader Northern Iowa, Wichita State has no quality wins, and some pretty weak losses in conference (although they are all road losses). I don't see Wichita State getting an at-large big UNLESS they lose in the conference final to the Panthers. Even then, they're a BIG maybe... they need to catch a few breaks along the way from other conferences. In other words, if too many things go wrong (allowing others to swallow up at-large bids), the Shockers will be left at home, most likely.

 

 

West Coast

 

Gonzaga Bulldogs

26-6 (12-2)

RPI: 39

SOS: 119

 

Wins vs top 50: St. Mary's (twice) and Wisconsin (18) on a neutral court.

 

Bad losses: Road games @San Francisco (196) and @Loyola-Marymount (181). Worst loss may be the 35-point loss @Duke.

 

Status: The Bulldogs had a disappointing loss at Michigan State early in the year, a game in which they led by 13 points early... then bounced back with pre-season tournament wins over Colorado, Wisconsin, and Cincinnati. They followed winning that tournament with a two-point loss against Wake Forest, but then went on to beat non-conference foes Illinois, and later on, Memphis. In other words, despite the disappointing losses to MSU and Wake, Gonzaga has done plenty out of conference to prove that they can play with, and beat, teams ranked in the top 50-75 in the country. They have good depth and balance... consistency will be their key in the tournament. I think they'll be a 4-5 seed, and a solid threat to reach at least the Sweet 16.

 

St. Mary's Gaels

26-5 (10-3)

RPI: 46

SOS: 139

 

Wins vs top 50: @Utah State (31), San Diego State (33)

 

Bad losses: USC (104) on a neutral court

 

Status: The Gaels are right behind their conference rival in terms of RPI. However, the "Zags" were clearly the better team of the two, in both head-to-head match-ups. The good news, for St. Mary's, is that they really had no bad losses all year. Other than the two losses to Gonzaga and one against USC, they lose to Vanderbilt and @Portland (82), which is not an easy conference opponent. St. Mary's should be in, having beaten fellow bubble teams Utah State and SDSU. I think they'll fall right around the 8-9 spot... maybe moving up to a #7 seed if they can manage to win their conference (and knock off Gonzaga along the way), or as low as 10-11 if they lose early in their tournament.

Edited by Gopher
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Big Ten

 

Updated 3/7: MSU and Minnesota won, and Wisconsin beat Illinois (records updated)

 

Ohio State Buckeyes

24-7 (14-4)

RPI: 29

SOS: 67

 

Wins vs top 50: @Purdue (13), @Michigan State (24), Wisconsin (18), Florida State (38), and California (22) on neutral court

 

Bad losses: @Michigan (130) and North Carolina (83) at neutral site

 

Status: The Buckeyes are the Big Ten's hottest team, winning 10 of 11 games since their mid-conference loss at West Virginia. Star Evan Turner missed several games this season with an injury, yet they still managed to put themselves in position to tie for the regular-season conference title. With seven losses overall, they're probably a 2-seed, but OSU has an outside shot at the fourth #1 seed if they manage to win the Big 10 tournament, and Duke and Kansas State falter. Depth is a concern, but the Buckeye starting five is among the best in the country.

 

Purdue Boilermakers

26-4 (14-4)

RPI: 13

SOS: 46

 

Wins vs top 50: West Virginia (6), Tennessee (16) on a neutral court, Wisconsin (24), Wake Forest (34), and road games @Michigan State (24) and Ohio State (29)

 

Bad losses: @Northwestern (108)

 

Status: The devastating loss of star forward and team leader Robbie Hummel is probably the only thing keeping a #1 seed from the Boilermakers. Purdue was a team of streaks this year, starting out by winning their first 14 games of the season. They lost three straight conference games after that, then recovered to win their next ten. In the first half of that tenth win at Minnesota, the Boilers lost Hummel to a season-ending knee injury. Still, they managed to finish strong, winning three of their last four (including the MN game). Purdue didn't lose a non-conference game all season, beating the likes of West Virginia, Wake Forest, and Tennessee and Alabama on the road. They also became the first team in Big Ten history to win road games at Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan State in the same season... quite a feat, considering those are arguably four of the toughest road venues in the conference.

 

The Boilermakers are definitely a different team without Hummel. Not only are they now lacking size in the middle... they miss his outside shooting, and his leadership and toughness even more. Still, Matt Painter has this team playing top-notch defense, and they won't be an easy out for anybody in the tournament. I'm not so sure the committee would give Purdue a #1 seed, even if they happen to win the Big Ten tournament, due to Hummel's absence. But, they should be no worse than a #2, and a tough one at that.

 

Michigan State Spartans

24-7 (14-4)

RPI: 24

SOS: 41

 

Wins vs top 50: @Purdue (13), Wisconsin (18), and Gonzaga (39) on neutral court

 

Bad losses: Worst loss was @North Carolina (83)

 

Status: Despite being ranked in the top five early, MSU struggled against the rest of the elite teams in the nation. Although they were all road/neutral games, the Spartans suffered early season losses to Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, while barely salvaging a home win against Gonzaga in a game where MSU trailed by double-digits in the first half. Meanwhile, against the other elite teams in the Big 10 (OSU, Purdue, Wisconsin), the Spartans only managed to go 2-3. Some of their struggles can certainly be attributed to a mid-season ankle injury to point guard Kalin Lucas, who missed several games. With Lucas back and healthy going into the post-season, however, there is no reason to think that the Spartans won't be poised for another run into late March. After all, the core of this team is basically the same as the one that made it to last year's national championship game. Nevertheless, the Spartans' early struggles have to be a concern... Is this team able to gel like last year's did, and become a legitimate Final Four threat? I think MSU is flying a bit under the radar right now, and believe they are one of two Big Ten teams with the capability of winning four games or more in the tournament, along with Ohio State. Look for MSU to be a 2 or 3-seed, depending on how they do next week.

 

Wisconsin Badgers

23-7 (13-5)

RPI: 24

SOS: 41

 

Wins vs top 50: Duke (2), Purdue (13), Maryland (20), Michigan State (24), Ohio State (29), and Marquette (48)

 

Bad losses: @WI-Green Bay (105)

 

Status: Just like the rest of the elite teams in the Big Ten, Wisconsin suffered an injury to one of its key players this year as well... Jon Leuer missed several games with a wrist injury. Wisconsin still managed to beat six teams in the RPI top 50, and has secured the 4th seed in the Big 10 tournament. The Badgers should be a 5 or 6-seed in the tournament, and have a decent shot of making the Sweet 16 or better. Their game with Illinois tomorrow means a lot more to Illinois than it does Wisconsin, although I'm sure the Badgers would gladly get revenge for an earlier home loss at the hands of Illinois.

 

Illinois Fighting Illini

18-13 (10-8)

RPI: 71

SOS: 46

 

Wins vs top 50: Vanderbilt (11), @Wisconsin (18), Michigan State (24), @Clemson (25)

 

Bad losses: Utah (145) and Bradley (102) at neutral sites, and @Northwestern (108)

 

Status: The Illini have a big game tomorrow with Wisconsin (@Illinois). If they win, they are pretty much a lock for the tournament. If they lose, they are in danger of missing out, and would probably need to win at least one Big 10 tournament game (which would be a rubber match with Wisconsin). If they get in, they'll most likely be seeded in the 8-11 range.

 

Minnesota Golden Gophers

18-12 (9-9)

RPI: 76

SOS: 44

 

Wins vs top 50: Butler (17), Wisconsin (18), Ohio State (29)

 

Bad losses: @Indiana (220), Michigan (130) twice, @Miami (112), @Northwestern (108)

 

Status: Clearly, as things stand right now, the Gophers are not in the tournament picture. Assuming they get to 9-9 in conference with a win tomorrow against Indiana, though, I do think it's possible that they work their way into the conversation. They would have to, more than likely, at least REACH the Big Ten final, to have a chance. Minnesota's biggest problem this year was closing out close games and/or games that they had well in hand... They lost home games to Purdue and Michigan State by one point each (both of which they led by double-digits in the second half), lost in overtime to both Miami and Indiana, as well as another one-point loss early in the season against Texas A&M. More than likely, because of their failure to close out those games, Minnesota is headed for the NIT.

 

Big 10 Wrap-up: The conference has four solid teams, any of which can make a an Elite Eight run or beyond. The question is whether or not Purdue can overcome the loss of one of their star players, and still manage to win at least a couple of games. As I mentioned earlier, MSU is the team that nobody is talking about, but made it to last year's NC with basically the same players. Don't sleep on Tom Izzo's ability to get his team playing into April.

Edited by Gopher
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Atlantic 10

 

Temple Owls

26-5 (14-2)

RPI: 15

SOS: 60

 

Wins vs top 50: Villanova (7), Xavier (19), Rhode Island (30) twice, Siena (40), Dayton (43)

 

Bad losses: Worst loss was St. John's (78) on neutral court.

 

Status: Temple is a solid team in a very tough conference. Only glaring loss on the schedule was losing to Kansas by 30+ points. The Owls are probably a 4-seed.

 

Xavier Muskateers

23-7 (14-2)

RPI: 19

SOS: 36

 

Wins vs top 50: Richmond (28), Rhode Island (30), Kent State (42), Dayton (43)

 

Bad losses: "Worst" loss was on a neutral court against Marquette (48).

 

Status: There is simply a lot to like about Xavier... No bad losses, and plenty of good wins. Not only did they beat the four teams mentioned above, in the top 50, they also beat Cincinnati (63), won at Florida (52), and swept conference opponent Charlotte (59). All of their losses this season were away from home, and arguably against teams that will be in the tournament... Marquette, Dayton, Wake Forest, Butler, Temple, Baylor, and Kansas State. Xavier will also be right in the 4-5 seed range.

 

Richmond Spiders

24-7 (13-3)

RPI: 28

SOS: 71

 

Wins vs top 50: Temple (15), @Rhode Island (30), Missouri (31)-(N), Old Dominion (37), Dayton (43)

 

Bad losses: Worst two were road losses @South Carolina (96) and St. Louis (93)

 

Status: The Spiders are having their best season in a while, and are definitely in. Another quality team from the A-10, Richmond is the third team from this conference that could easily make a Sweet 16 run. Most likely, the Spiders will be seeded in the 6-8 range.

 

Rhode Island Rams

21-8 (9-7)

RPI: 30

SOS: 64

 

Wins vs top 50: Oklahoma State (27) at a neutral site, @Dayton (43)

 

Bad losses: @Massachusetts (194), @St. Bonaventure (160), @St. Louis (93)

 

Status: The Rams did themselves no favors Saturday, losing at UMass. A win would have pretty much solidified their spot in the tournament. Instead, they've pushed themselves right to the edge of the tournament bubble. They're most likely still in, but another quick loss in the A-10 tournament could potentially push them out altogether. Once a top-25 team, Rhode Island is now looking at a 10 or 11 seed at best.

 

Dayton Flyers

19-11 (8-8)

RPI: 43

SOS: 34

 

Wins vs top 50: Xavier (19), Georgia Tech (35)-(N), Old Dominion (37)

 

Bad losses: @St. Joseph's (185), @Duquesne (99), and swept by St. Louis (93)

 

Status: Dayton put themselves in the same position as Rhode Island today, but worse, by losing at home to St. Louis. This was a game they needed to win... it would have gotten them to not only 20 wins, but above .500 in the conference. Instead of being a 9 or 10 seed, the Flyers are now possibly on the outside, looking in. They can still work their way back into a more secure spot, in terms of an at-large bid, but it's going to take a couple of wins in the A-10 tourney, most likely.

 

Charlotte 49ers

19-11 (9-7)

RPI: 59

SOS: 86

 

Wins vs top 50: Temple (15), @Richmond (28), @Louisville (36)

 

Bad losses: @George Washington (142) and Duquesne (99)

 

Status: The problem for the 49ers is that they've lost six of their last seven games, including a tough OT loss to Richmond on Saturday, at home. That was a game that could have secured a spot for Charlotte... Without that win, they may also be outside of the bubble. You have to like their road wins against Richmond and Louisville, as well as beating Temple, but they just haven't done enough outside of those three wins to ensure themselves a spot.

 

Atlantic 10 Wrap-up: If Temple is #1, and Xavier is #1A, then Richmond is #1B in this conference. In other words, all three are solid teams that have enough experience against tournament teams to make a splash during the first weekend of the big dance. Any of the three can a couple of games, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise. After that, though, the conference is a true cluster. Rhode Island, Dayton, and Charlotte all appear to be trying to play their way out of the tournament... It may come down to which of them can win a game or two in the A-10 tournament, to decide who makes it and who does not. Meanwhile, St. Louis has beaten Rhode Island and Dayton twice in the past month, but their RPI (93) is probably not good enough to get them in the discussion. This conference has three sure bids, and will probably get no more than four, considering how the middle of the pack has faltered this week.

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Another fairly easy conference to analyze, but for a different reason, is the Pac-10:

 

Pac-10

 

California Golden Bears

20-9 (12-5)

RPI: 22

SOS: 9

 

Wins vs top 50: None

 

Bad losses: A one-point home loss to UCLA (146) was probably their worst of the year. Their next four "worst" losses were all on the road, and all in-conference... @Oregon State (176), @USC (105), @Arizona (86), and @Washington (53).

 

Status: Cal is a perfect example of why I have a problem with the idea of putting too much stock in RPI rankings. If you look only at who Cal has beat and who they've lost to (and the RPI rankings of those teams), there is no way the Bears belong in the tournament. Their "best" wins are outside of the top 50, while their "worst" losses dip well into triple digits. If you look at Cal's own RPI ranking, however, there is no way they get left out. Cal has lost nine games this season. Other than the five conference losses listed above, they lost to the following teams (all on the road or neutral site): Kansas (1), Syracuse (2), New Mexico (8), and Ohio State (29). So, basically, California lost one home game and four road games in conference, and four non-home games to non-conference opponents... two of the four losses were to the best two teams in the country, while the other two were against top-ten opponents as well (both of which were single-digit losses).

 

There is no way Cal should be left out of this year's tournament. About the only thing Cal can be faulted for is this... All of their non-conference opponents are either ranked 29 or higher (lost all four), or 104 and below (won all eight). Had they scheduled some middle-of-the-pack non-conference opponents, we wouldn't even be discussing whether or not the Bears belong. So, rather than focusing too much on rankings, let's look at the facts... The Pac-10 has been one of the elite 6-7 basketball conferences for decades. The conference, as a whole, is down this year, no doubt. But, California is clearly the best team in what is still one of the top 9-10 conferences in the country, and there is no way they should be left out, no matter who wins the Pac-10 tournament. All of those other 8-9 conferences (including C-USA, Atlantic 10, and Mountain West) have at least one lock this year, and are projected to have a minimum of 2-3 bids. Cal is in... if nothing else, because they are the best team in a conference that is better, top to bottom, than some of those other conferences (even this year).

 

Arizona State Sun Devils

21-9 (11-6)

RPI: 54

SOS: 70

 

Wins vs top 50: San Diego State (31)

 

Bad losses: Just like Cal, ASU's "worst" losses are in the Pac-10... @UCLA (146), @USC (105), Arizona (86).

 

Status: Just like Cal is clearly the best team in their conference, ASU is pretty clearly #2. I don't like their chances as an at-large bid, but if anybody other than Cal has a shot, it's the Sun Devils. Just like I mentioned above with Cal, ASU doesn't have any bad losses outside of their own conference. The problem that the Pac-10 has, though, is that nobody really beat anybody out of conference, so their RPI rankings as a group are inherently bad. It's hard to make themselves look good when they're all only beating "bad" teams (themselves), at least bad teams on paper. Still, I think if ASU can make it to the Pac-10 title game, and then lose to Cal in the final, they could at least make the argument that they belong. I think it would be close, and I'd have to see what else plays out to determine if they would be in or out at that point.

 

Washington Huskies

20-9 (10-7)

RPI: 53

SOS: 60

 

Wins vs top 50: Texas A&M (11), California (22)

 

Bad losses: Same story... Washington's worst four losses are within conference play, including an ugly home loss against Oregon (158), @UCLE (146), and two losses to USC (105). The Huskies lost twice out of conference... @Texas Tech (64), and against Georgetown (14) on a neutral court.

 

Status: So, if ASU can make an argument that they deserve a bid, then why can't Washington? Bottom line... the bubble conversation is usually far too crowded as it is, but who knows? Stranger things have happened. I know one thing for sure... the only way for either of these teams to be in for sure, is for them to win the Pac-10 title.

 

Pac-10 Wrap-up: It's like the old "chicken vs. egg" scenario... Is the Pac-10 as bad as we think they are, or is the notion that they're down a bit overblown due to the whole RPI thing? I think it's some of both... the conference didn't do itself any favors in terms of who they played out of conference, or who they beat for that matter. On the other hand, they all kind of beat up on each other during the regular season, which didn't help any of their individual rankings at all. Like I said above, Cal should be in, while the other two teams mentioned are certainly long-shots, but at least worth mentioning.

 

Great job as usual Gopher. The Huskies will get in. Yes, the Pac-10 is down this year mainly because of the early departures to the NBA. The Huskies should, and will get in, due to their improvement down the stretch. The Huskies lacked the mental toughness to win on the road most of the year but recently they have turned that around. They seem to have that swagger back but I don't see them winning more than one game and that would be an upset. I think they're in as a #12 seed so maybe they'll be the team that beats the #5 this year.

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Atlantic 10

 

 

 

Richmond Spiders

24-7 (13-3)

RPI: 28

SOS: 71

 

Wins vs top 50: Temple (15), @Rhode Island (30), Missouri (31)-(N), Old Dominion (37), Dayton (43)

 

Bad losses: Worst two were road losses @South Carolina (96) and St. Louis (93)

 

Status: The Spiders are having their best season in a while, and are definitely in. Another quality team from the A-10, Richmond is the third team from this conference that could easily make a Sweet 16 run. Most likely, the Spiders will be seeded in the 6-8 range.

 

Don't sleep on this club. They will surprise and I see them getting to the Sweet 16.

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Don't sleep on this club. They will surprise and I see them getting to the Sweet 16.

 

 

I agree, and it is hard to list South Carolina as a bad loss (other then the fact their overall record is only .500), especailly on the road. SC beat Kentucky and Vandy, Downey is a beast

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BTW, love your analysis Gopher.

 

Some good reading in here.

Thanks.

 

Don't sleep on this club. They will surprise and I see them getting to the Sweet 16.

I agree... All three top A-10 teams are experienced/tested, and therefore dangerous.

 

I agree, and it is hard to list South Carolina as a bad loss (other then the fact their overall record is only .500), especailly on the road. SC beat Kentucky and Vandy, Downey is a beast

When I do the individual team analysis, I use RPI rankings of opponents as a general starting point... Wins against the top 50, I consider "good" wins. Doesn't means there aren't some pretty solid teams outside of the top 50, as well as a couple of teams IN the top 50 that are probably not among the actual best 50 teams in the country (if that makes sense). Same goes for "bad" losses... I used teams with an RPI of 100+ as my threshold for this, but I agree, not all of those losses are truly bad or unexpected. It does give me (and anybody who reads) a good idea of what each team's worst losses are... If I had used a higher threshold (150 or 200), there would have been several teams with no losses listed. So, I guess maybe I should change them from "bad losses" to "worst losses." :wacko:

 

By the way, there are probably people browsing what I've written in this thread who are wondering why I bother... After all, you can find a lot of this same information on any sports site you go to these days... ESPN, CBSSportsline, Yahoo, etc. Well, I am doing this for a couple of reasons... Number one, it gives me a chance to examine all of the potential tournament teams, and familiarize myself with some of the teams that I haven't had a chance to see as much as some of the others. Rather than just reading a team profile on a team like Utah State, for example, this forces me to dig a little bit deeper, and really look at their performance during the entire season. I like to think that the time spent doing this helps me when I fill out my brackets (which I do several), but who knows? :D

 

Secondly, I try to do most of this without looking at a whole lot of outside information. In other words, my breakdowns of the various teams and conferences is based simply on these things... who they beat, who they lost to, and where the games were played (which I think is key, obviously). I use RPI ranking as simply a starting point... I'm not going to analyze all 300+ Division I teams, so I've got to start somewhere. I try not to look at other rankings/polls while doing this analysis, and as a general practice, I don't watch a lot of network (ESPN/CBS) analysis either. I think it's more fun/challenging to just look at the raw facts/data, and come up with my own conclusions based off of that information.

 

Lastly, I watch A LOT of basketball games to go along with the information I look at online. My wife is very tired of our DVR being filled with basketball games, to the point where, many nights, she has to use the other (non-HD) TV in the house, because our main DVR is taping two games at the same time. Occasionally, it's even gotten to the point where I'll be taping a third game on our second DVR. Yesterday, for example, I recorded and watched parts of nine different games throughout the day... I usually tape them so that I watch an entire game in under an hour. Typically, during the week, I watch at least one game a night... sometimes 2-3. On the weekends, it's common for me to watch ten or more games between Saturday/Sunday.

 

I'm also taking the next two Thursday/Fridays off from work, pretty much solely for the purpose of catching more basketball. From now until a week from now, I plan on watching at least part of pretty much every conference tournament game out there. By the time it's all said and done, I estimate that I will have watched 300+ college basketball games this year, before the NCAA tournament even begins. I guess I'm just a true college hoops junkie, in every sense of the word. :D

 

I'll finish the rest of the conferences, as well as put together my preliminary field of 65, by the end of today.

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Regarding some of the Big East "bubble teams" I hope that Seton Hall & South Florida get a fair shake in the at large bid consideration ... Seton Hall had several "good wins" and no "bad losses", South Florida had maybe 1 "bad loss" but also had several "good wins". Of the two, SHU played a far stronger schedule overall, although both (not uncommon) played a fairly weak out of conference schedule.

 

I can see Notre Dame & UCONN however, having an advantage in the at large bid department just based on recognition factor ... when IMO, neither has really shown me much that indicates they are more deserving than SHU or SF, although to be fair, UCONN has played a very tough schedule.

 

Hopefully one or both of Seton Hall / South Florida will manage a couple of wins in the Big East tournament to solidify their at large bid chances, but I'd really like to see both make it to the big dance this year.

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Great job as usual Gopher. The Huskies will get in. Yes, the Pac-10 is down this year mainly because of the early departures to the NBA. The Huskies should, and will get in, due to their improvement down the stretch. The Huskies lacked the mental toughness to win on the road most of the year but recently they have turned that around. They seem to have that swagger back but I don't see them winning more than one game and that would be an upset. I think they're in as a #12 seed so maybe they'll be the team that beats the #5 this year.

I don't think the Huskies are in as they stand right now, but I don't think they're officially out, either. I think they have work left... They (and probably ASU as well) need to win a game or two in the Pac-10 tournament, to prove that they are, without a doubt, one of the top teams in what is really a pretty balanced conference. The Pac-10 is balanced (nobody really established themselves as head and shoulders above the rest), which makes them look worse than they really are. Like I said, they all beat up on each other, all season long. Their biggest problem is that they did very poorly against non-conference opponents in the top 25-50. Cal, for example, proved that it can play with the elite teams in the country... they just didn't beat any of them. But, they scheduled some VERY tough teams... Syracuse, Kansas, etc.

 

I think Washington can make a real argument if they get to the Pac-10 semi-finals. Same with ASU. If they fail to do even that, they really can't argue that they're any better than the likes of Arizona, USC, etc. The problem I have with the experts/prognosticators is that many of them have been saying all along that the Pac-10 is a one-bid team, no matter who wins their tournament. I have a huge problem with that statement if Cal fails to win their tournament. The Bears might not be a top-25 team, but they're definitely in the top 30-35 range, and their RPI supports that. If Cal DOES win their tournament, I think ASU and Washington need to show us that they belong in the dance as well... the only way for them to do that is to win the tournament games that they should win.

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Atlantic Coast Conference

 

Update 3/7: Wake Forest beat Clemson (records updated)

 

Duke Blue Devils

26-5 (13-3)

RPI: 2

SOS: 7

 

Wins vs top 50: Maryland (17), Clemson (24) twice, Florida State (32), Wake Forest (34), Gonzaga (35), Georgia Tech (44), Virginia Tech (49)

 

Bad losses: @North Carolina State (109)

 

Status: Duke had a decent non-conference schedule, in terms of difficulty, although they didn't play any of the premiere teams in the country. They started out winning 13 of their first 14 games, including blow-out wins over Charlotte (by 42) and Gonzaga (by 35), as well as victories over Arizona State and Connecticut. Their only early loss was in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge, in which they lost @Wisconsin by four. There were two games on Duke's non-conference schedule that I found particularly interesting... the first was the huge win over Gonzaga. I had been very impressed with Gonzaga early... not only with their difficult schedule, but their talent and depth impressed me as well. Gonzaga had beaten Wisconsin soundly, and led Michigan State (@MSU) for the majority of their contest. Well, Duke basically made Gonzaga look like a Division III school... it wasn't even close. So, Wisconsin beats Duke, then gets handled by Gonzaga... and Duke turns around and blows out Gonzaga. Sometimes, A plus B just doesn't equal C, even when everything makes it appear as though it should.

 

The second game that caught my attention was a mid-conference double-digit loss @Georgetown. The Hoyas are a solid team, but there are undoubtedly at least 2-3 teams in the Big East that are simply better. Meanwhile, Duke is clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC. I watched that game, and Georgetown was on a different level than the Blue Devils. So, what can we make of all of this? I'm not sure. I think there are a couple of conclusions to be made, though. First, Duke has improved its consistency as the season has gone on. They were shaky earlier in the year... Gonzaga was probably their best performance, while losses @Wisconsin, @NC State, and @Georgetown were probably their worst. Second, Duke plays much better at home, plain and simple. In fact, they might have the best home-court advantage in the country... their fans. Perfect example... Maryland. Duke beat the Terps by 20+ at Cameron Indoor Stadium, then lost last week @Maryland. Definitely a big difference for Duke, playing at home versus on the road. I'm interested to see if the Devils can put together 3-4 wins on a neutral court, and get back to the Final Four.

 

The last thing I will say about Duke is that I think a lot of people have the misconception that they lack an inside game. Duke's best players are on the perimeter, no doubt. But, they are actually fairly deep inside... deeper than they are on the perimeter. Duke has four big men who play a significant role, and significant minutes. What confuses the casual observer is that none of those "bigs" score a lot of points. Their backcourt generates roughly 80% of their scoring, but is actually the less deep part of the team. What I really like about the three backcourt stars, though, is their versatility. Singler can shoot like a guard, but has the size and post skills to play either forward position as well. Scheyer can play either guard spot, while Smith (who was a brutal shooter when he first arrived at Duke) has improved his offensive game tenfold. I like Duke to make a run this year... I'm just not sure they've got the inside/outside balance to win it all.

 

Maryland Terrapins

23-7 (13-3)

RPI: 17

SOS: 22

 

Wins vs top 50: Duke (2), Clemson (24), Florida State (32) twice, Georgia Tech (44), @Virginia Tech (49)

 

Bad losses: Cincinnati (68) on neutral court, and William & Mary (61) at home.

 

Status: The Terrapins have established themselves as the clear-cut #2 team in the ACC, which is probably the 3rd or 4th best conference in the country. The only thing that I would have liked to have seen from this "resume" was a big win or two, out of conference. It's one thing to beat the good teams you're familiar with... it's another to beat a less familiar team in a tournament-type of setting. Other than the two losses above, Maryland lost three conference road games (Duke, Clemson, Wake), and two non-conference games (Villanova, Wisconson)... both on neutral courts by nine points each. I may be nit-picking a bit, but Maryland would have done well for themselves to win one of those two games. They'll still be a solid threat in the tournament... probably a 4-5 seed, that can work their way up to a 3, or down to a 6, depending on how they fare in the ACC tourney.

 

Clemson Tigers

21-9 (9-7)

RPI: 24

SOS: 24

 

Wins vs top 50: Butler (16), Maryland (17), Florida State (32) twice, and Georgia Tech (44)

 

Bad losses: @Boston College (98), and Illinois (72) at home

 

Status: The Tigers currently hold the distinction of being the only team in the top 50 with the same RPI and SOS number, not that that means anything. Clemson is 3-2 against the rest of the "tier-2" ACC teams (FSU, GTech, VTech, and Wake). Their game tonight @Wake will tell a lot about both teams. Are the Tigers just a middle-of-the-pack team, deserving of a 8-9 seed, or can they establish themselves as arguably the 3rd best team in the conference? This team hasn't been spectacular in conference play, after a solid 12-2 start, but they've done enough to secure a spot in the tournament. Probably a 7 or 8-seed, although a road win tonight would do a lot to justify the former of the two.

 

Florida State Seminoles

22-8 (10-6)

RPI: 32

SOS: 43

 

Wins vs top 50: Wake Forest (34), Georgia Tech (44) twice, Virginia Tech (49)

 

Bad losses: North Carolina (109) at home

 

Status: Florida State is interesting in that the did very poorly against the teams that are better than them on paper, but very well against the teams that are on the same level as them, and below. They were 0-5 against Duke, Maryland, and Clemson, and 4-0 against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest. In non-conference play, they beat Marquette, Alabama, and Auburn, but lost to Ohio State and Florida. Their best road wins were Georgia Tech and North Carolina... Not bad wins, necessarily, but not bracket-busters either. I think FSU is a legitimate 8-9 seed that could play a #1 seed tough, but probably wouldn't beat them. If, however, they are able to work their way up to a 7-seed, they could potentially give a 2-seed trouble in the second round.

 

Virginia Tech Hokies

23-7 (10-6)

RPI: 49

SOS: 128

 

Wins vs top 50: Clemson (24), Wake Forest (34), @Georgia Tech (44)

 

Bad losses: @Miami (199), @Boston College (98), @North Carolina (84)

 

Status: The one glaring weakness in the Hokies' resume, obviously, is their strength of schedule. Virginia Tech's best non-conference opponents were Temple (15 - lost by eleven), Seton Hall (54 - won by nine), and Georgia (103 - won by 12). After that, the next best non-conference opponents were Campbell (184), Penn State (191), and Iowa (196)... all road opponents that the Hokies beat. The good thing about this team is that they took care of business in the games that they SHOULD win... they only lost one game all year at home (Maryland), and swept inferior teams like N.C. State and Virginia. Still, the lack of a non-conference schedule (or at least quality wins out of conference) has probably put this team on the bubble. Another advantage for the Hokies this year was that they only had to play the elite teams in the conference once... Of Duke, Maryland, Clemson, FSU, Wake, and GTech, Virginia Tech had to play none of them twice this season. Still, they managed a 3-3 record against those teams, including 3-1 against the others that are competing with them for bids (leaving Maryland and Duke out). I think they'll find their way in, as long as they get out of the first round of the ACC tournament, but they're probably no better than a 10-11 seed.

 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

19-9 (9-7)

RPI: 34

SOS: 31

 

Wins vs top 50: Maryland (18), Xavier (20), Clemson (24), Richmond (24), @Gonzaga (35), Georgia Tech (44)

 

Bad losses: @Miami (119), @N.C. State (109), North Carolina (84) and William & Mary (61) at home

 

Status: Despite losing an early contest to Purdue in the inter-conference challenge, Wake bounced back to pick up a road win @Gonzaga, as well as a couple of close wins over the Atlantic 10's best, in Xavier and Richmond. They started out well in conference, too, getting to 18-5 and 8-3 in the ACC, after a win over Georgia Tech. Since that game, though, Wake is in a tailspin, losing four of their last five games. Tonight's home game against Clemson is more about damage control than anything else... The Demon Deacons can not afford to fall to .500 in the ACC, after such a tremendous start. From the committee's perspective, 19-9 and an above-.500 conference record looks significantly better than 18-10 and 9-9 in conference. Even though the last 10 games no longer hold any more importance than the rest of the schedule, according to the NCAA committee, losing five of their last six would not be good for the Deacons. Another issue is that Wake is 1-3 against the other middle teams in their conference... Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Florida State (their first meeting with Clemson is tonight). Nevertheless, Wake proved earlier this season that they belong in the tournament, considering the teams they beat. I think they're in no matter what, but could land anywhere between 8 and 11, depending on tonight's game and the ACC tournament.

 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

19-11 (7-9)

RPI: 44

SOS: 19

 

Wins vs top 50: Duke (2), Clemson (24), Wake Forest (34), Siena (38)

 

Bad losses: @Virginia (119), @Miami (109), @Georgia (102)

 

Status: In past years, one could make the argument that the ACC was a good enough conference, overall, to warrant a 7-9 team getting an NCAA bid. This year, they're simply not good enough to make that argument. The Jackets may not need to win the entire ACC tournament to get in, but they have to at least get close. If they are able to work their way to the final, I think they might have a shot. Otherwise, they're probably out... if for no other reason, because of their conference record. Are they any worse than Virginia Tech, who had a far weaker non-conference schedule? Probably not. They might even be better. But, one thing that sticks out is that they were 2-5 against the other ACC teams that they're competing with (Wake, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and FSU).

 

ACC Wrap-up: Probably a six-bid conference at best... If Georgia Tech or anybody else wins their way to a bid, it would most likely knock somebody like Virginia Tech out. Duke is a legitimate 3-4 win team in the tournament... I'm just not sure they're championship material. I'm interested to see how Maryland handles facing a quality non-conference opponent at a neutral site. The other 4-5 teams are all certainly capable of winning a game or two. Out of them all, I like Clemson and Wake the most, simply because they're the most tested against non-conference foes that will be in the tournament.

Edited by Gopher
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Big East

 

Syracuse Orangemen

28-3 (15-3)

RPI: 3

SOS: 11

 

Wins vs top 50: @West Virginia (5), Villanova (9), Georgetown (15) twice, California (19), Memphis (46), and Cornell (48)

 

Bad losses: None... Swept by Louisville (30) and lost to Pittsburgh (10) at home

 

Status: Syracuse has pretty much locked up a #1 seed... They've proven all year that they're one of the teams to beat. The Orange have seven solid players that could start for most teams in the country, and those seven are usually the only players who receive many minutes. Their lack of depth, though, has less to do with the other players on the bench, than it does the quality of their first two bench players. This team plays a unique style of zone defense, and Jim Boeheim has a nucleus that is tournament-tested. The biggest weakness for Syracuse, if there is such a thing, might be their poor free-throw percentage, as a team. Stars Andy Rautins and Wes Johnson both shoot nearly 80%, but frontcourt players Arinze Onuaku (46%) and Rick Jackson (50%) are terrible at the line. Still, this team is talented and experienced enough to win it all... Their loss @Louisville on Saturday was their first road loss of the year.

 

Villanova Wildcats

24-6 (13-5)

RPI: 9

SOS: 23

 

Wins vs top 50: @West Virginia (5), Georgetown (15), Maryland (17) on a neutral court, and @Louisville (30)

 

Bad losses: Worst was UConn (55) at home.

 

Status: Potential Big East player of the year Scottie Reynolds, and fellow backcourt mate Corey Fisher, give the Wildcats one of the best guard combinations in the country. Villanova plays small, often playing three (or sometimes even four) guards at a time. What makes them small, though, is not necessarily a lack of big players. Jay Wright plays small because he recognizes that four of his five best players are guards. So, 'Nova often sacrifices size for an advantage in quickness, as well as the ability to have several players in the game who can shoot the three and handle the ball. It's hard to argue with that theory... 'Nova has taken down some quality opponents due to their guard play. On the other hand, even when they were ranked in the top five in the country, I had my doubts as to whether or not this team had enough balance to be a legitimate #1 seed. The brutal Big East schedule took its toll on the Wildcats... they lost four of their last six contests. Still, they're a solid 2 or 3-seed that can beat anybody on any given night, due to their great guards. I could see this team being an early out in the tournament, if they have an off night shooting the ball. On the other hand, great guards can single-handedly win games, so you never know how far this team can go. Don't be surprised if another Final Four appearance is in their near future.

 

West Virginia Mountaineers

24-6 (13-5)

RPI: 5

SOS: 2

 

Wins vs top 50: @Villanova (9), Pittsburgh (10), Texas A&M (12) - N, Georgetown (15), Ohio State (28), Louisville (30)

 

Bad losses: Worst were @UConn (55) and @Notre Dame (57)

 

Status: West Virginia is probably a higher seed than Villanova, so if either team falls to a #3, it will most likely be Nova. They beat each other on the road, both beat Georgetown, but WVU has more solid wins, outside of those, than Villanova does. Their rebounding is their strength, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Like 'Nova, the Mountaineers also have a potential conference player of the year in shooting guard Da'Sean Butler. If Villanova's weakness is their inside game, West Virginia's is probably their lack of a truly dominant point guard... They distribute the ball by committee, which can be a good thing, but not knowing who is going to handle the ball in crunch time can also be of detriment. I think this team can certainly make an Elite Eight type of run, if they get on a roll, but I'm not sure they have the skills at the guard position to be a national championship contender.

 

Pittsburgh Panthers

24-7 (13-5)

RPI: 10

SOS: 9

 

Wins vs top 50: @Syracuse (3), West Virginia (5), Villanova (9), Louisville (30), Kent State (42), Wichita State (43)

 

Bad losses: Indiana (214) on a neutral court is by far their worst loss. Other than that, they lost conference road games @Seton Hall (54), @Notre Dame (57), and @South Floriday (65).

 

Status: Pitt is most definitely the pleasant surprise team of the Big East. They were on nobody's radar going into the season... not even sniffing the top-25. Haven't seen a ton of this team, so this is definitely one of the squads that I'm looking forward to watching in conference tournament play. Probably another 2 or 3-seed from the nation's best conference, Pitt has proven that they can be a 3-4 win team in the NCAA tournament.

 

Georgetown Hoyas

20-9 (10-8)

RPI: 15

SOS: 1

 

Wins vs top 50: Duke (2), Villanova (9), @Pittsburgh (10), Temple (14), Butler (16), @Louisville (30), Washington (49)

 

Bad losses: @Rutgers (149) and South Florida (65) at home

 

Status: Something can certainly be said for having the toughest schedule in the country, at least on paper. Part of the reason their schedule was so tough was that two of the three Big East teams that the Hoyas had to play twice were Syracuse and Villanova. They also played a solid non-conference schedule, and beat most of the teams on the list... their only non-conference loss was bubble team Old Dominion. The Hoyas have good balance, including a solid three-guard attack and one of the best big-man passers in the country in Greg Monroe. Georgetown could very easily manage to win 2-3 games in the tournament. I don't know if they're talented enough, overall, to reach the Final Four, but they're certainly "tournament-tested" due to their schedule. They also rely a lot on the outside shot, , similar to Villanova, which could end up being their downfall. Another thing that this team shares in common with 'Nova is that they struggled down the stretch... The Hoyas went 5-5 in their last ten games. I see Georgetown landing somewhere in the 4 to 6-seed range in the tournament.

 

Marquette Golden Eagles

20-10 (11-7)

RPI: 58

SOS: 53

 

Wins vs top 50: Georgetown (15), Xavier (20) at a neutral site, Louisville (30)

 

Bad losses: @DePaul (208), N.C. State (109) at home

 

Status: Marquette doesn't have as many quality wins as the elite teams in their conference, and their bad losses are significantly worse. They also suffered a disappointing home loss to Notre Dame on Saturday. Despite those circumstances, an 11-7 record in the country's most challenging conference is likely to get them into the NCAA tournament. They've also finished strong (winning 8 of their last 10 games), even though that supposedly doesn't matter to the committee. The Golden Eagles benefited slightly by getting to play Providence and DePaul twice, but they also played Villanova twice as well (and lost by two points both times)... proving they can play with, but not quite beat, the elite teams on their schedule. Marquette is another team that certainly could use a conference win or two, but I still think they're probably an 8-9 seed the way things currently stand.

 

Louisville Cardinals

20-11 (11-7)

RPI: 30

SOS: 4

 

Wins vs top 50: Swept Syracuse (3) and UConn (55)

 

Bad losses: Western Carolina (112) at home, @St. John's (78), Charlotte (66) at home

 

Status: A model of inconsistency, the Cardinals have beaten the best of the best (twice), but also suffered some somewhat ugly losses. When you look a little closer, though, their losses aren't as bad as the RPI numbers indicate... Western Carolina and Charlotte are both teams that are still fighting to get into the tournament, while St. John's is a talented (but underachieving) team as well, despite their poor record in the Big East. If nothing else, Louisville deserves a bid for beating Syracuse twice, not to mention their 20 wins, 11-7 Big East record, and 4th toughest schedule in the country. That said, they're pretty inconsistent, so it's tough to say where they should be seeded. Their wins over 'Cuse indicate that they deserve something around a 7-seed, but their overall resume points closer to a 9 or 10. Nevertheless, this is a team that can win a game or two, for sure.

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

21-10 (10-8)

RPI: 57

SOS: 52

 

Wins vs top 50: West Virginia (5), Pittsburgh (10), @Georgetown (15)

 

Bad losses: Loyola-Marymount (178) at home, @Rutgers (149), Northwestern (115), and St. John's (78) at home

 

Status: Notre Dame has suffered some brutal losses, but also has some great wins in conference. The bottom line is that they may have played their way in by winning @Marquette on Saturday. Between the five teams that are truly on the bubble in the Big East (ND, UConn, Seton Hall, SFU, and Cincinnati), the Irish had a record of 5-3. What is interesting is that the three teams that Notre Dame played twice all fell into that category... They split with UConn and Cincinnati, and swept South Florida. I'm leaning towards Notre Dame being in right now, but they certainly have very little wiggle room... an early Big East tournament loss could push them back out. They are certainly one of the last teams to get in, if they do at all.

 

Connecticut Huskies

17-14 (7-11)

RPI: 55

SOS: 3

 

Wins vs top 50: West Virginia (5), @Villanova (9), Texas (27)

 

Bad losses: @Michigan (134), @Providence (126)

 

Status: Unfortunately for UConn fans, strength of schedule only gets a team so far. The Huskies probably played their way out of the tournament by losing their last three games (Louisville, @Notre Dame, @South Floriday). Connecticut looked great in wins against 'Nova and Texas (who was #1 in the country at the time), but was a below-average team overall, at least in the Big East. The other problem the Huskies have is that they went 2-4 against those "other four" teams in the Big East (Seton Hall, SFU, ND, and Cincinnati). What really killed UConn this year was getting swept by Cincinnati and Louisville... if they had been able to split those four games, they'd be 9-9 and in the tournament. On the flip-side, UConn proved all year long that it could compete with the nation's elite. Not only did they beat Texas, they also had single-digit losses to Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky, and Georgetown... all four games were on the road or at a neutral site. So, the question of this year's tournament selection process is this... Does strength of schedule and "close" losses matter more than the inability to get to at least a .500 record in an elite conference? In other words, is proving you can compete with elite teams enough, or do you have to actually beat them? I don't think so (I know this argument well, considering my Gophers lost one-point games to both MSU and Purdue, two of THEIR conference's elite teams). Close losses are not only disappointing, they don't/shouldn't help get you into the tournament. I have UConn out unless they manage to win three or more conference tournament games, which may make up for their below .500 record.

 

South Florida Bulls

19-11 (9-9)

RPI: 65

SOS: 54

 

Wins vs top 50: Pittsburgh (10), @Georgetown (15), Kent State (42)

 

Bad losses: Central Michigan (190) at home, South Carolina (82) on a neutral court, St. John's (78) at home

 

Status: The Bulls are 3-3 against the "other four", splitting with Cincinnati and getting swept by the Irish. Other than the Georgetown win, South Florida's next best win away from home was winning @Providence (126). I think they have a little work left to do... win a game or two in the conference tournament, further proving that they can win games away from the Sun Dome, and I think they may deserve a bid. If they fail to do that, though, I think they may end up on the outside, looking in.

 

Seton Hall Pirates

18-11 (9-9)

RPI: 54

SOS: 30

 

Wins vs top 50: Pittsburgh (10), Louisville (30), @Cornell (48)

 

Bad losses: Worst is @South Floriday (65)

 

Status: I actually like the Pirates' resume better than the other teams in the bubble conversation from the Big East. They had to play Pittsburgh and West Virginia twice this year, and also suffered close non-conference losses to Temple and Virginia Tech. What I like the most about Seton Hall is that they really have zero bad losses... their "worst" is a road loss to another bubble team. Against the other four teams, they went 2-2... beating Notre Dame and Cincinnati, while losing to UConn and South Florida. Like South Florida, I think the Pirates may need to win another game or two to secure a spot, but I actually like the Pirates' chances better than the others.

 

Cincinnati Bearcats

16-14 (7-11)

RPI: 68

SOS: 9

 

Wins vs top 50: Maryland (17) and Vanderbilt (20) at neutral sites

 

Bad losses: Worst are road losses @St. John's (78) and @South Florida (65)

 

Status: The problem with the Bearcats is that they really beat nobody of significance in the Big East. On the other hand, they played a very tough schedule, and really have no bad losses. The way I see it, they're in a similar situation to UConn, but on a much lesser scale. In other words, both teams went 7-11 in the Big East. However, Cincinnati's strength of schedule is very good, but not as good as UConn's. The same can be said for their quality wins... not as good as the Huskies, overall. What is good about the Bearcats resume is that they went 4-3 against the other four bubble teams, including a sweep of UConn, coincidentally. Still, just as with the others, this team has work left to do... maybe the most out of the bunch. I don't think it's impossible for the Bearcats to get an at-large bid, but it will probably take winning three conference tournament games to do so.

 

Big East Wrap-Up: I think there are seven teams that are officially in the tournament, with five others having a chance to get in as well (in this order): Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Connecticut, South Florida, and Cincinnati. The Big East Tournament bracket is set... The Cincinnati Bearcats, in my opinion, would need to beat Rutgers, Louisville, and West Virginia to get an at-large bid. South Florida needs to beat DePaul and Georgetown, reaching the semi-finals. Connecticut needs to beat St. John's and then knock off Marquette to assure themselves a spot. The key matchup, potentially, is between Seton Hall and Notre Dame... The Pirates play Providence in the first round, and then would meet the Irish (the only team of the five with a first-round bye) in round 2. The winner of that potential second-round matchup should be in the tournament, and could likely also affect who else from this group gets in. Either way, I think the Big East gets eight bids for sure... maybe even nine, depending on how next week plays out.

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Conference USA

 

UTEP Miners

24-5 (15-1)

RPI: 40

SOS: 117

 

Wins vs top 50: UAB (41) twice, @Memphis (46)

 

Bad losses: @Houston (160)

 

Status: Haven't seen much of the Miners this year, so I don't know a lot about them. Looking at their schedule, though, it's clear that UTEP has been the best team in C-USA this year. They've won fourteen straight games, covering a span of nearly two months since their last loss (@Houston), which also happened to be their only conference loss. The Miners still has a solid shot at an at-large bid, if they happen to get knocked out of their tournament. That said, they're probably no better than an 11 or 12 seed, so doing well in their tournament would certainly help UTEP fans sleep well next weekend.

 

Memphis Tigers

23-8 (12-3)

RPI: 46

SOS: 80

 

Wins vs top 50: UAB (41) twice

 

Bad losses: @SMU (201), @Massachusetts (188), @Houston (160)

 

Status: Memphis has some respectable losses on their resume... most notable was the 2-point loss to Kansas on a neutral court. I'm just not sure if they've done enough to guarantee themselves a spot. A couple of wins in the Conference USA tournament might help make them more convincing. Right now, I see them out, but with a chance to win their way in.

 

UAB Blazers

23-7 (11-4)

RPI: 41

SOS: 94

 

Wins vs top 50: Butler (16)

 

Bad losses: @Virginia (133)

 

Status: Not much, in terms of good wins, or bad losses for that matter, on UAB's schedule. What hurts the Blazers is that they were swept by both UTEP and Memphis, so they're the clear-cut #3 team in a conference that will be fortunate to get more than one bid. Just like Memphis, I don't see UAB making the tournament without winning a couple more games. Regardless of what happens, it may come down to which one beats the other in the tournament semi-finals, if they make it that far.

 

Conference USA Wrap-up: I think this is probably a one-bid league UNLESS Texas-El Paso fails to win their tournament, in which case they would probably justify an at-large bid. If the cards fall right for either Memphis or UAB, there's a SLIGHT chance one of them may nab an at-large bid, but I think that's highly unlikely, given the lack of impressive wins on either resume. UTEP should be seeded somewhere in the 10-11 range, I'm guessing, which means the other two are out, unless they play their way in.

Edited by Gopher
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Mountain West

 

New Mexico Aggies

28-3 (14-2)

RPI: 7

SOS: 65

 

Wins vs top 50: Texas A&M (12), California (19), BYU (23) twice, San Diego State (33), @UNLV (47)

 

Bad losses: @Oral Roberts (117), UNLV (47) at home

 

Status: New Mexico is a top 10-15 team in the country... Not only did they dominate a conference that is likely to get 3-4 bids, they also ended the season on a 14-game winning streak. I like New Mexico to be a 3 or 4-seed. Either way, the Aggies are a dangerous team that could get to the Sweet 16 and beyond.

 

BYU Cougars

28-4 (13-3)

RPI: 40

SOS: 117

 

Wins vs top 50: SDSU (33) twice, @UTEP (40), UNLV (47), Arizona State (52)

 

Bad losses: None. BYU lost four games all year... twice to New Mexico, as well as road losses to Utah State and UNLV.

 

Status: BYU will be a tough out for any team that draws them in the tournament. The Cougars are only a slight step behind New Mexico, in terms of their success this season, so I see them being somewhere in the 5-6 range, in terms of seeding. Another Sweet Sixteen candidate, certainly.

 

UNLV Rebels

23-7 (11-5)

RPI: 47

SOS: 103

 

Wins vs top 50: @New Mexico (7), BYU (23), Louisville (30), SDSU (33)

 

Bad losses: Utah (155) twice, and USC (110) on neutral court

 

Status: The Rebels have their share of solid wins, and a couple of bad losses, at least on paper. But, Utah is never any easy win on the road, and USC shouldn't be considered a gimme either. UNLV is probably in no matter what, but they could definitely improve their seed by winning a couple in the Mountain West tournament. I see the Rebels as an 8 or 9 seed, and would be very cautious of meeting up with them in the second round if I was a 1-seed.

 

San Diego State Aztecs

22-8 (11-5)

RPI: 33

SOS: 73

 

Wins vs top 50: New Mexico (7), UNLV (47)

 

Bad losses: @Wyoming (222), @Pacific (120)

 

Status: The Aztecs' problem is that they have less good wins than UNLV, and their "bad" losses are worse as well. Still, within the conference, they were basically neck-and-neck all season with the Rebels. Certainly the team with the least impressive resume of the four Mountain West candidates, SDSU could definitely help themselves out by winning a couple more games. I have them as one of the last teams in, as they stand today... probably an 11 or 12-seed.

 

Mountain West Wrap-up: This conference should get at least three, maybe four, tournament bids. I would be surprised if at least one of them doesn't reach the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. New Mexico and BYU are the likely candidates to reach the Sweet 16, but UNLV and SDSU and completely capable of multiple wins as well.

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Southeastern

 

Kentucky Wildcats

29-2 (14-2)

RPI: 4

SOS: 42

 

Wins vs top 50: Tennessee (13), Vanderbilt (20) twice, Louisville (30)

 

Bad losses: Lost two games all season... @South Carolina (82) and @Tennessee (13)

 

Status: Kentucky will undoubtedly enter this year's tournament as the #1 seed with the easiest schedule of the four, and probably the least number of "quality" wins. The Cats have what is possibly the most talented starting five in the country, but also one of the youngest. Their leader, John Wall, is almost certainly going to be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA draft. Meanwhile, fellow freshman DeMarcus Cousins may be one of the most talented big men in the country. The key with this team will be how well they maintain their composure, which is always a concern with such a young team. Also, the starters will need to stay out of foul trouble, as Kentucky's depth is not great. Regardless, this is a team that is talented enough to make the Final Four, no doubt. If they gain confidence by getting past the first couple of rounds, it could be lights out for the rest of the nation.

 

Vanderbilt Commodores

23-7 (12-4)

RPI: 20

SOS: 25

 

Wins vs top 50: Tennessee (13) twice, Missouri (36), @St. Mary's (45), Florida (53) twice, and @Mississippi (53)

 

Bad losses: Western Kentucky (131) neutral court, @Georgia (103), South Carolina (82)

 

Status: Vanderbilt is a top-25 team that has a bunch of quality wins, as well as a couple of less than desirable losses. What I really like about the Commodores is that they played a very tough schedule... besides the games mentioned above, they also beat Mississippi State, Arizona, and Southern Miss, while losing games to Illinois and Cincinnati away from home. I think Vandy is probably a 5-seed, with a decent shot at getting to the Sweet 16.

 

Tennessee Volunteers

23-7 (11-5)

RPI: 13

SOS: 20

 

Wins vs top 50: Kansas (1), Kentucky (4), @Memphis (46), Florida (53), Mississippi (56)

 

Bad losses: @USC (110), @Georgia (103)

 

Status: Just like Vanderbilt, the Vols are experienced and tournament-tested. They're also the only team in the country that can say that they beat two #1 seeds this season. In the past, Tennessee teams have been somewhat unpredictable come tournament time, but Bruce Pearl has this team playing solid. The Vols play an up-tempo game with a ton of energy... they'll be a potentially dangerous team for any tournament opponent. I think they're also a five-seed that can move up to a four, or down to a six, depending on how they fare in the SEC tourney.

 

Florida Gators

20-11 (9-7)

RPI: 53

SOS: 41

 

Wins vs top 50: Tennessee (13), Michigan State (26) on neutral court, Florida State (32), @Mississippi (56)

 

Bad losses: South Alabama (209) at home, @Georgia (103)

 

Status: Florida is most certainly a bubble team that could use another win or two to make a better case to the committee. But, the Gators have more quality wins than bad losses, including a couple against non-conference opponents who will be in the tournament. I think they're probably in, but just barely... winning another game or two in the SEC tournament could move them up from a 12-seed, to maybe a 10 or 11.

 

Mississippi State Bulldogs

21-10 (9-7)

RPI: 69

SOS: 104

 

Wins vs top 50: Old Dominion (37) on neutral court, and swept Mississippi (56)

 

Bad losses: Rider (144) at home, @Arkansas (143), @Auburn (140), @Western Kentucky (131), and @Alabama (99)

 

Status: The Bulldogs lost a crucial home game to Tennessee on Saturday, which was possibly their final chance to secure a quality win against a top-25 team. MSU has more bad losses than good wins... they've got their work cut out for them, in order to make the tournament. I think this team needs to win two games minimum, in the SEC tourney, to have any sort of shot at an at-large bid.

 

Mississippi Rebels

21-9 (9-7)

RPI: 56

SOS: 70

 

Wins vs top 50: Kansas State (6) on neutral court, UTEP (40) on neutral court

 

Bad losses: @Arkansas (143), swept by Mississippi State

 

Status: The good news for the Rebels is that they have two solid wins away from home. The bad news is that they lost twice to in-state rival MSU, the other team in the SEC that they are fighting for possibly the conference's final NCAA bid. Just like MSU, I think Mississippi needs a win or two to give themselves a good shot at that bid.

 

SEC Wrap-up: This conference is certainly leaps and bounds better than last year, when they only sent one team to the tournament. Not only do they have a true championship contender in Kentucky, but Vanderbilt has joined Tennessee as a quality top-20 team as well. After those three, Florida probably stands the best chance of becoming the fourth SEC team to make the tournament. I would be surprised if anybody other than the top three teams makes it past the tournament's first weekend.

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With a lot of basketball left to play, here is how I see the tournament field as it stands today. Teams in bold are officially in:

 

1-seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

 

Three of the four are virtual locks for the top spots. If Duke wins the ACC, they'll be the fourth. If not, I think there's room for someone else to take the final #1... Ohio State is the most likely candidate, despite seven losses, since many think they could be given a "break" for losing Evan Turner for several weeks. They have to win the Big Ten tournament first. Of course, if that is all true, what happens if Purdue wins? They have four losses all season... If the committee cuts a team a break for a mid-season injury, shouldn't they do the same for a late-season injury (assuming that team keeps winning without the injured player)? After all, rumor has it the committee no longer looks at the last ten games of the season any more than the rest of it. In other words, whether a team finishes strong going into the tournament should have no bearing on their seeding. Other teams who could potentially steal Duke's spot would include Kansas State, West Virginia, and Villanova... any of which would have to win their conference tournament to do so.

 

Most likely to fall to a 2-seed: Duke (The other three are pretty much set)

 

2-seeds: Ohio State, West Virginia, Purdue, Kansas State

 

Like I said, if the committee does what they say they're going to do, Purdue should be given the opportunity to play their way to a #1 seed, just like the others. I doubt they win the Big 10, so the point is probably moot, but just for conversation's sake, there should not be a double-standard. Until Purdue stops winning games, they should be treated as what their record indicates, which is a potential #1 seed.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Ohio State (I think they're more likely to win their conference tourney than WV or KSU)

Most likely to fall a spot: Purdue (An early slip in the Big Ten tourney could drop them due to the Hummel factor)

 

3-seeds: Villanova, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Michigan State

 

I consider Villanova to be the "fifth 2-seed" in that they are probably the only team, other than the four mentioned above, that could play their way to a #1 seed. Like the others, they would have to win the Big East tournament. New Mexico has the record to support a 2-seed, and the Mountain West Conference is certainly very good, but I have a hard time plugging them in to anything higher than a three, at this point. If they blaze through their tournament like they did the regular season, I may change my mind. Michigan State could very well play their way up to a two, or down to a four. Of course, they lost their best player to injury for a significant portion of the season as well, something that all four of the Big Ten's top teams share in common. It will be interesting to see how the injuries of Lucas, Turner, Hummel, and Leuer affect the committee's selections.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Nova (Easier for a team that's already been on top to rebound back to the top)

Most likely to fall a spot: Michigan State (Has potentially the toughest 2nd round game of the top four Big Ten teams)

 

4-seeds: Temple, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, BYU

 

Some may think a four is too high for BYU. I think, if New Mexico is a three, BYU is not far behind. The difference between the two this season was minimal.despite the fact that New Mexico won both meetings head-to-head (the margin in both games was a combined six points). Vanderbilt swept Tennessee and therefore gets the nod over the Vols. Wisconsin finished only a game behind the "big three" in the Big Ten... another win over Illinois on Thursday will solidify them as a four.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Temple (Unlikely, but if MSU slips, they would be the most likely candidate to move up)

Most likely to fall a spot: BYU (I have them as the last of the fours... could be easily passed if Maryland, Baylor, or Tennessee play well)

 

5-seeds: Butler, Maryland, Baylor, Tennessee

 

As much as I like Butler and their 20-game winning streak, they're going to have to prove to me in the tournament that they're worthy of anything higher than a five. After all, their conference is tough, but still not talented enough, overall, to warrant more than one bid. Plus, they play their conference tournament at home... Not their fault, but I can't put them any higher than here. I thought long and hard about Maryland... Is there really a big enough gap between them and Duke to support one being a 1-seed, while the other is a five? Probably not, and I think Maryland could play their way up to as high as a three in the ACC tourney. What it came down to, for me, was that Wisconsin (the team I thought about swapping with Maryland) beat the Terps, as well as Duke.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Maryland (They've proven they can beat Duke already, and their records are nearly identical)

Most likely to fall a spot: Tennessee (Probably the most vulnerable, since they now have to play away from home the rest of the way)

 

6-seeds: Georgetown, Xavier, Texas A&M, Gonzaga

 

I had Gonzaga as a five before their loss to St. Mary's in the WCC final. That was a devastating loss, in terms of its potential impact on their seed... On the other hand, it might have been early enough in the week that it won't be the most prevalent thing on the committee's mind, come Sunday afternoon. In other words, there are sure to be other upsets this week... the ones that happen Thursday and Friday will likely have just as much impact as Gonzaga's Monday night collapse. Still, they could fall as far as a 7-seed, in my opinion, depending on who else plays well enough to pass them.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Xavier (Georgetown would have to beat 'Cuse to win 2 games, and A&M would face KU)

Most likely to fall a spot: Gonzaga (They're done, so they can't drop by losing, but could by somebody below them winning)

 

7-seeds: Clemson, Texas, Richmond, Florida State

 

ACC is a cluster, but somebody deserves to be higher than the 8-9 spot... Clemson and FSU have proven to be better than the other two. As shocking as it is that Texas was once #1 overall, I don't believe they deserve any higher than a seven, unless the do some damage in the Big 12 tournament. Richmond has played well enough to deserve this spot.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Clemson (Already beat FSU twice)

Most likely to fall a spot: Richmond (Could easily drop to an 8 if they fail to reach conference semi's)

 

8-seeds: Missouri, Marquette, Wake Forest, California

 

As with the rest of the field, everybody here can play their way higher or lower. Cal may be the one exception... Even if they win the Pac-10, the conference is so weak, at least on paper, that it will only go so far in impressing the committee. They MIGHT be able to get to a seven, but I think it's unlikely.

 

Most likely to play their way up: Missouri (If they can beat A&M in 2nd round, they should move to a seven)

Most likely to fall a spot: Cal (8-seed is assuming they win the Pac-10... A slip puts them in the 9-11 range, depending on how early)

 

9-seeds: UTEP, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, St. Mary's

 

The Gaels made a big statement on Monday... they certainly belong, and not just because they won their conference tournament.

 

Most likely to play their way up: UTEP (Probably the most likely candidate of the four to win their tournament, and switch spots with a team like Cal)

Most likely to fall a spot: St. Mary's (Finishing early has its disadvantages... If enough teams below them play well, they will almost certainly drop back to the 10-range)

 

10-seeds: UNLV, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Louisville

 

Most likely to play their way up: VTech (Beat Wake, and they move up... How they fare against Duke would determine how far)

Most likely to fall a spot: ASU (Like Cal, any slip-up, and they'll drop)

 

11-seeds: Old Dominion, Cornell, Florida, Northern Iowa

 

Most likely to play their way up: Florida (By default)

Most likely to fall a spot: Cornell (Three of the 12's could pass them by default, if they play well)

 

12-seeds: Utah State, San Diego State, Illinois, Siena

 

Most likely to play their way up: Illinois (Rubber match with Wisconsin on Friday would secure their bid)

Most likely to fall a spot: SDSU (2nd round potential matchup with New Mexico lessens their chances of running the table)

 

13-seeds: Washington, Memphis, OPEN, OPEN

 

Most likely to play their way up: Washington (Can impress by reaching Pac-10 final)

Most likely to fall a spot: Yet to be determined

 

14-seeds: Murray State, Oakland, OPEN, OPEN

 

15-seeds: Wofford, North Texas, Montana, OPEN

 

16-seeds (+1): Winthrop, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris, OPEN, OPEN

 

Conference winners filling the "OPEN" slots, in no particular order:

 

America East

Big West

MEAC

Mid-American

Patriot

Southland

SWAC

Edited by Gopher
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Teams that can still play their way in, without necessarily winning their tournament... In no particular order (although the teams towards the top have a better chance than those at the bottom):

 

Seton Hall

Rhode Island

Memphis - Moved them into the field in place of Seton Hall, whose loss to Notre Dame was ugly enough to knock them out.

Mississippi

South Florida - Lost to Georgetown by 20 on 3/10.

Dayton

Georgia Tech

Mississippi State

Minnesota

Charlotte - Lost to UMass on 3/9.

UAB

Cincinnati

Kent State

St. Louis

Edited by Gopher
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I don't think the Huskies are in as they stand right now, but I don't think they're officially out, either. I think they have work left... They (and probably ASU as well) need to win a game or two in the Pac-10 tournament, to prove that they are, without a doubt, one of the top teams in what is really a pretty balanced conference. The Pac-10 is balanced (nobody really established themselves as head and shoulders above the rest), which makes them look worse than they really are. Like I said, they all beat up on each other, all season long. Their biggest problem is that they did very poorly against non-conference opponents in the top 25-50. Cal, for example, proved that it can play with the elite teams in the country... they just didn't beat any of them. But, they scheduled some VERY tough teams... Syracuse, Kansas, etc.

 

I think Washington can make a real argument if they get to the Pac-10 semi-finals. Same with ASU. If they fail to do even that, they really can't argue that they're any better than the likes of Arizona, USC, etc. The problem I have with the experts/prognosticators is that many of them have been saying all along that the Pac-10 is a one-bid team, no matter who wins their tournament. I have a huge problem with that statement if Cal fails to win their tournament. The Bears might not be a top-25 team, but they're definitely in the top 30-35 range, and their RPI supports that. If Cal DOES win their tournament, I think ASU and Washington need to show us that they belong in the dance as well... the only way for them to do that is to win the tournament games that they should win.

 

Can't argue with anything here at all. Spot on, as usual. If Washington and Arizona St. both win tonight they face each other on Friday night for the right to play for the PAC-10 championship. I think this game will decide if UW gets in. If they beat ASU I think they're in with ASU and Cal. If ASU wins the huskies could be out. Go Dawgs!

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