Sweet 16

[Gopher]

So, now that my (and most other people's) brackets are busted wide-open, I figured we could start "from scratch" and talk about the upcoming eight games. I'm including the point spreads for the games (total points in parentheses), in case anyone wants to look at them from that angle (I've actually done quite well on college BB, over the past six weeks or so):

 

THURSDAY Games

 

Syracuse -7 vs. Butler (138.5)

 

West Virginia -5 vs. Washington (142)

 

Kansas State -4.5 vs. Xavier (154)

 

Kentucky -9 vs. Cornell (147)

 

 

FRIDAY Games

 

Ohio State -4.5 vs. Tennessee (134)

 

Baylor -4 vs. St. Mary's (145)

 

Michigan State -1 vs. Northern Iowa (121)

 

Duke -8 vs. Purdue (129.5)

 

 

I'll update this post over the next day or two, with my thoughts on the games. I can tell you that I made one play as soon as I saw the lines for these games. For those of you who followed the NFL weekly wagering threads, you know that I'm a teaser guy for football... Same thing here. I placed a seven-point teaser on the following:

 

Duke -1 As impressive as Purdue was on Sunday, with their stifling defense and gritty play, I think they may be outmatched in this one. For one, Duke is no defensive slouch themselves... Purdue won't get many uncontested shots agains the Blue Devils. The problem for the Boilermakers is that they will be at a disadvantage in nearly every other area. They don't have the scorers that Duke has, they don't have the big bodies that Duke has, and Duke's point guards can shoot (Purdue's main ball-handler is not a shooting threat). I think Matt Painter will find a way to keep it close, but look for Duke to win by 7-10 points.

 

Syracuse 0 Syracuse played what was possibly their best all-around game of the year on Sunday. Butler is a more consistently disciplined team than Gonzaga (who was inconsistent all year), so I don't think this one will get out of hand early, like Sunday's did. But, ultimately, even without Onuaku, Syracuse has too much size/length for the Bulldogs. This one could be close, but I don't see any way Butler ends up winning this game. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see Syracuse win by double-digits.

 

Washington +11.5 The Huskies continue to get no respect. I think this is a toss-up game, but the bookmakers have them as 4.5 point underdogs. Washington has an advantage at point guard, but West Virginia has one of the tournament's best scorers at shooting guard. Washington has a fantastic scoring forward in Pondexter, while West Virginia has great rebounders who play much bigger than their actual size. Two questions I have for Washington, that I think will determine the outcome of this game... First, Washington is a streaky type of team. They started the year slowly, but are now on a tear. Will they be able to keep up the intensity, with four days off, or will there be a bit of a let-down? Secondly, will Washington's athletic wing players be able to somewhat neutralize West Virginia's great rebounding? Either way, I like Washington to keep this one close, as long as they don't have a real "off" shooting night. I'll take the points for now, and figure out who I like to win outright, later.

[theprofessor]

Syracuse -7 vs. Butler (138.5) . Butler +7 (Syracuse is playing as good as anyone right now but laying 7 might be too much

 

West Virginia -5 vs. Washington (142) Washington +5 (UW wins outright)

 

Kansas State -4.5 vs. Xavier (154) Kansas St - 4.5 (The Wildcats pressure will be too much. I picked KSU to get to the Title game)

 

Kentucky -9 vs. Cornell (147) Cornell +9 (Cornell will give Kentucky all they can handle and this could be the biggest upset of the tourney)

 

 

FRIDAY Games

 

Ohio State -4.5 vs. Tennessee (134) Tennessee +4.5 (tough to call but I see this one being very, very close, grab the points)

 

Baylor -4 vs. St. Mary's (145) Baylor -4 (I love Baylors athletcism,)

 

Michigan State -1 vs. Northern Iowa (121) Northern Iowa +1 (tough to go against an Izzo coached team in a big game but NI looks tough)

 

Duke -8 vs. Purdue (129.5) Purdue +8 (Duke wins but too many points to give Purdue with that "D")

Edited March 22, 2010 by theprofessor

[Timmypg]

THURSDAY Games

 

Syracuse vs. Butler - Syracuse. The Big East is struggling but Cuse looked really good.

 

West Virginia vs. Washington - Tough call but I think WV pulls it out.

 

Kansas State vs. Xavier - KSU rolls here.

 

Kentucky vs. Cornell - Cornell has looked awesome but I just think Kentucky is way too good.

 

 

FRIDAY Games

 

Ohio State vs. Tennessee - Even Turner must step up for OSU to win, I think he will.

 

Baylor vs. St. Mary's - I sort of feel the same way as Kentucky vs. Cornell but Baylor isn't as good so St. Mary's could win. I'll pick Baylor though.

 

Michigan State vs. Northern Iowa - I don't think Michigan State is good. Refs helped them beat NM ST & a buzzer beater beat Maryland. Without Lucus Northern Iowa wins.

 

Duke vs. Purdue - I'm a Duke fan so you know who I'm picking. That being said I like this matchup for Duke. They can play tough D like Purdue but their O is much better.

[Cyclones]

Wow, is UK the most widely disrespected #1 seed since St. Joseph's a few years back? They boast 5 lottery picks, are playing great team defense, and will play in home game type atmospheres the rest of the tourney and are "going to get all they can handle" from Cornell?

 

UK wins this game going away, and either UW or WVA don't stand that big a chance either. I'm not worried about a single game for the rest of this tourney until we play Syracuse in the title game (assuming 'Cuse gets there.)

[T_bone65]

Wow, is UK the most widely disrespected #1 seed since St. Joseph's a few years back? They boast 5 lottery picks, are playing great team defense, and will play in home game type atmospheres the rest of the tourney and are "going to get all they can handle" from Cornell?

 

UK wins this game going away, and either UW or WVA don't stand that big a chance either. I'm not worried about a single game for the rest of this tourney until we play Syracuse in the title game (assuming 'Cuse gets there.)

 

 

As a UK fan I agree with most of what you say, but I don't think we will win going away. I see maybe 10-12 point victory with it being tight for a good bit of the game.

 

If you don't bet the over on this game you are passing over an easy win IMHO. They have both scored 90+ just about in each of their games and they have it set at 147 I also see Kansas being upset as the biggest upset of this tourny no matter whatelse happens from here on out

[budlitebrad]

Wow, is UK the most widely disrespected #1 seed since St. Joseph's a few years back? They boast 5 lottery picks, are playing great team defense, and will play in home game type atmospheres the rest of the tourney and are "going to get all they can handle" from Cornell?

 

UK wins this game going away, and either UW or WVA don't stand that big a chance either. I'm not worried about a single game for the rest of this tourney until we play Syracuse in the title game (assuming 'Cuse gets there.)

 

+1

 

Cornell has beaten Temple and Wisconsin so far. Kentucky is a completely different animal.

[wildcat2334]

Wow, is UK the most widely disrespected #1 seed since St. Joseph's a few years back? They boast 5 lottery picks, are playing great team defense, and will play in home game type atmospheres the rest of the tourney and are "going to get all they can handle" from Cornell?

 

UK wins this game going away, and either UW or WVA don't stand that big a chance either. I'm not worried about a single game for the rest of this tourney until we play Syracuse in the title game (assuming 'Cuse gets there.)

 

 

what in the hell are u talking about? disrespected? by who on what planet?

 

ridiculous statement partner

[T_bone65]

what in the hell are u talking about? disrespected? by who on what planet?

 

ridiculous statement partner

 

 

Digger Phelps picked Cornell to beat Kentucky the day the brackets game out and they all made their predicitions. something about the smart kids will wins this game of the young kids

 

But I do hear what you are saying though, Duke was supposed to have the easy brackett and be the worse of the 4 #1's

[Cyclones]

what in the hell are u talking about? disrespected? by who on what planet?

 

ridiculous statement partner

 

The average margin of victory for 12 vs 1 seeds in the sweet sixteen since the tournament expanded is 14.75 pts and the 12 seeds have gone 0-16 in these games, yet everywhere you turn all you hear is how Cornell is going to pull this upset. They will get run out of the gym but nobody seems to want to admit it.

[wildcat2334]

The average margin of victory for 12 vs 1 seeds in the sweet sixteen since the tournament expanded is 14.75 pts and the 12 seeds have gone 0-16 in these games, yet everywhere you turn all you hear is how Cornell is going to pull this upset. They will get run out of the gym but nobody seems to want to admit it.

 

 

really?

 

is that why UK is -9 over Cornell, the highest number of ANY of the sweet 16 games? because they aren't getting any respeck?

 

I think Uk is getting plenty of respeck, gimme a freaking break

[Gopher]

I think everybody is talking about Cornell being the next big upset because they're the only real "sexy" pick in this round. Look at the other options:

 

Northern Iowa - Not really much of an upset pick, considering MSU is without Lucas and only a 1-point favorite. Not sexy.

 

St. Mary's - Like UNI, St. Mary's wouldn't be THAT much of a surprise to win against Baylor.

 

Butler - I don't think anybody thinks Butler will beat Syracuse, realistically. They beat a UTEP team that looked pretty bad in the first round, then barely got by 13-seed Murray State. Meanwhile, Syracuse has not been challenged, so far, any more than Kentucky has. If there is a blow-out in this round, I expect it to be here.

 

All of the other "underdogs" that are left are from major conferences... Washington, Purdue, etc. So, by default, Cornell is the team that people are talking about... the Cinderella story, so to speak. I, personally, think it will be interesting to see how this game plays out... The first 5-10 minutes could very well determine the outcome. If Cornell's 7-footer can play Cousins tough early on, he could "get in his head"... If there is one thing Cousins has shown me this year (besides being EXTREMELY talented and agile for a big guy), it's that he CAN let things get to him, mentally. He's not above letting his frustrations affect his game, and in my opinion, that's the only way he's going to be slowed down in this tournament. He doesn't really have "bad" games, as much as he has games where he lets the mental part of the game get to him, and makes mistakes as a result.

 

If, on the other hand, Cousins gets off to a fast start and Kentucky takes an early double-digit lead, I think it will be game over. Wall is going to do his thing, either way. Wittman is going to make 4-5 three's for Cornell, either way. Either way, I like Kentucky to beat Cornell. But, the matchup between the two big guys will be HUGE in determining how things play out. If Cousins dominates, it's a blow-out. If not, it might be closer than your average 1-12 game.

 

As far as respect for Kentucky, I think it's about right... They are in the conversation, along with 2-3 other teams, for the national championship. Should they be the #1 consensus favorite to win it all? I don't think so. Certainly, they've got the most NBA talent of any of the teams that are left, but they're also by far the youngest. If there is anything the NCAA tournament has shown us over the years, it's that talent CAN beat experience (think Syracuse and Carmelo Anthony beating Kansas), but experience can also beat talent (too many examples of this for me to even start to list them). So, I don't think it should be a foregone conclusion that Kentucky wins it all, any more than it should have been a foregone conclusion that Kansas or Syracuse would win it all, when the tournament started.

 

The other thing that you have to remember is that the SEC is one year removed from being the "Pac 10 of 2009." Last year, THEY were the one-bid conference. Certainly, Kentucky got ten times better than they were last year, but did the rest of the SEC get that much better? I don't have the answer to this question, but I think that is definitely playing a part in a lot of people's hesitancy to "annoint" the Wildcats... they played some good teams this year, but they also played some bad ones. Their non-conference schedule looked a lot better 3-4 months ago, than it does now. Their best non-conference wins were against tournament teams Louisville (by 9), Sam Houston (by 10), and Morehead State (by 16), as well as wins over NIT teams UConn (by 3) and UNC (by 2)... wins that looked much better at the time than they do now. Kentucky also lost to South Carolina, and was pushed by Miami of Ohio, who they beat (at UK) by two. They've proven that they can dominate, but they've also proven that they can be pushed by inferior teams, and in the case of South Carolina, beaten by them. Granted, they won't have to play a road game like South Carolina the rest of the way, but neutral games are still much different than playing at home. So, I think, fair or not, the jury is still out on whether or not Kentucky can/will beat multiple premiere non-conference opponents, consecutively, on a neutral court.

 

As far as this tournament goes, Kentucky has destroyed their first two opponents, beating ETSU (RPI 122) by 29 points, and then Wake Forest (#39) by 30 points... That's an average of 29.5 points against teams averaging 80.5 in RPI. Meanwhile, Cornell beat #8 Temple by 13, and #21 Wisconsin by 18. That's an average margin of 15.5 against teams averaging 14.5 in RPI. Not saying that means anything at all. But, I do think that, as impressive as Kentucky has been through the first two games, Cornell has been equally (or more) impressive, considering who they have beaten and by how much.

 

Lasty (and this may be me just "nit-picking"), Kentucky does not have five lottery picks on their team, at least not in THIS year's draft. They have two locks (Wall/Cousins), a third (Patterson) who is almost a lock to be in the top ten, and Bledsoe, who I have seen projected as high as top 12-14, and as low as the end of the first round. Bledsoe may or may not be the fourth player drafted in the top 14 picks, but who is the fifth?

 

I don't mean for this post to appear as a bash-fest against Kentucky... I think they have just as good of a chance to win it all as anybody else. Just trying to point out some of the reasons why some people may doubt them, that's all. That said, I think they've been given plenty of respect all season, and most certainly will continue to be the team most talked about, in terms of ability to win it all, especially now that Kansas is out of the picture.

[Gopher]

The other thing I will add about Cornell is that a lot of people were asking before the tournament started, which game was the anomaly... the blow-out loss to Syracuse, or the two-point loss to Kansas? I (along with many others) made the mistake of thinking the Kansas game was the one that should be discounted... After all, Cornell didn't really beat any truly "quality" opponents all year. After watching them destroy Temple and Wisconsin (both of which they made to look like THEY were the teams that didn't belong on the same court as Cornell, not the other way around), I think I chose the wrong game to discount. The blow-out loss to Syracuse appears to be the "anomaly" in Cornell's season, not the game in which they nearly beat Kansas.

 

I'm not saying Cornell won't get blown out in their next game... they very well may. I'm just saying that I think they've proven (at least to me) that they belong with the rest of the elite teams in the country... not necessarily a team that can win it all, most likely, but I think they're a legitimate top 10-15 team in the country.

[Cyclones]

Great post, Gopher. I'm not implying that Kentucky should slice through the rest of the tourney like a hot knife through warm butter or anything, but they certainly seem to be peaking at the perfect time. The same could be said of Cornell, but if both teams bring their A game to Syracuse, UK wins by 20+. It will take a lackluster effort by UK and a monster effort by Cornell to if UK is to lose.

 

As for the Cousins maturity issue, he was harrassed by the biggest dick in college sports, Chas McFarland, all game vs Wake and still ate them alive, even getting up smiling after McFarland whacked him across the head in the 2nd half. I think he has done a fantastic job reeling in the emotions. He is a fierce competitor and wants to win games - akin to Joakim Noah at Florida, who I hated BTW, and I'm sure I would hate Cousins if he played for UT or Florida.

 

Point taken on the 5 lottery picks. Wall, Cousins, Patterson and Bledsoe are projected in the lottery this year. Orton would be taken in the first round if he leaves this year - if he comes back next year and gets Cousins' minutes, he goes in the top 10 next draft, that's the 5th I was referring to.

[Gopher]

Great post, Gopher. I'm not implying that Kentucky should slice through the rest of the tourney like a hot knife through warm butter or anything, but they certainly seem to be peaking at the perfect time. The same could be said of Cornell, but if both teams bring their A game to Syracuse, UK wins by 20+. It will take a lackluster effort by UK and a monster effort by Cornell to if UK is to lose.

 

As for the Cousins maturity issue, he was harrassed by the biggest dick in college sports, Chas McFarland, all game vs Wake and still ate them alive, even getting up smiling after McFarland whacked him across the head in the 2nd half. I think he has done a fantastic job reeling in the emotions. He is a fierce competitor and wants to win games - akin to Joakim Noah at Florida, who I hated BTW, and I'm sure I would hate Cousins if he played for UT or Florida.

 

Point taken on the 5 lottery picks. Wall, Cousins, Patterson and Bledsoe are projected in the lottery this year. Orton would be taken in the first round if he leaves this year - if he comes back next year and gets Cousins' minutes, he goes in the top 10 next draft, that's the 5th I was referring to.

I agree with all of the above, but disagree with a couple of things SLIGHTLY. If they both play their best, Kentucky wins, but I don't think it would be by 20, necessarily. I think they would win... probably comfortably... maybe 10-15 points. The three-pointer is the great equalizer in college hoops... Cornell has better shooters than Kentucky, and more of them. Now, obviously, Kentucky's defense will have a lot to do with how well Cornell shoots. If they get in their face and make sure every shot is contested, it will be very unlikely that Cornell shoots lights-out. On the other hand, if Kentucky goes into this game thinking they are on cruise-control, and just need to show up to win, Cornell could beat them on just an AVERAGE shooting night, much less a game where they're on fire.

 

See, after watching Cornell the last two games, I don't think they played as well as they're capable of. I think they played very well against Temple. I watched that game, having picked and bet on Temple. The Owls got down by double-digits early, and I kept telling myself that Temple would make a run. At one point in the second half, Temple scored something like 5-7 points in a row. Cornell kept their composure, and went on a mini-run of their own, after that. I just had this feeling, given how things were going (and how Cornell didn't look the least bit flustered when they gave up that small run), that the 5-7 points WAS Temple's last "big" run, even though there were several minutes left in the game. That ended up being the case, and Temple never really made another serious threat in that game.

 

Against Wisconsin, Cornell didn't NEED to play great. They were by far the better team, and eventually just wore down the Badgers. I think Cornell played well in that game, but it's not like it took their best effort to win that game. Usually, the close games are where teams play their best... Like Kentucky, Cornell hasn't had to do that yet.

 

I saw the McFarland play... He was obviously frustrated, but I also thought it looked worse than what was intended. In other words, his arm came down hard, across Cousins' upper body, almost as if Chas was trying to harm Cousins, without even going for the ball. But, Cousins had made a pump fake right before the foul occurred... Had he attempted to score, instead of the fake, it would have just been a very hard foul to prevent a lay-up. Instead, it looked as though McFarland blatantly tried to hammer Cousins, with no intent to stop the score from happening. Part of that, in Chas' defense, is because of the fake. Still, a hard foul, no doubt, and I don't know McFarland well enough to say if he's a dirty player or not.

[Cyclones]

Injuries continue to hammer good teams - Onuaku, Lucas, Hummel, now WVU's starting PG, Truck Bryant, has broken his foot in practice and is done for the year. Averages about 25 minutes, 10 ppg. They don't have another guy on that roster who resembles a PG and they only run about 7 deep as it is. Pretty big blow to them. If the get past UW, Wall and Bledsoe wiill give them fits in the Elite Eight. Yes, I am discounting Cornell.

[Gopher]

Tough break, no pun intended. Kentucky's chances of reaching the final just got that much better. It will be interesting to see how Mazzoula (sp?) handles the primary ball-handling responsibilities, since he's not really a true PG (and I'm not sure what else they have at that position, buried on their bench). Butler might have to contribute more than normal, as well, in terms of bringing the ball up the court... especially when UW decides to press.

 

Still, I think the WV-UW game is going to be decided in the front-court... UW has flashy scorers who are going to try to push the tempo, while the Mountaineers will slow things down, and attempt to dominate UW on the boards. They say it's easier to slow the tempo down, than speed it up, but without a point guard, I'm not so sure. Interestingly enough, the spread in this game hasn't changed much, even though I think this is a fairly significant loss for West Virginia. It was WV -4.5 on Sunday, and it's only moved to -4 so far.

 

Edit: Actually, it opened at -4.5 on Sunday, moved to -5 yesterday, and then went to -4 today. That makes more sense... the loss of Bryant affecting the spread by a point, which sounds about right.

Edited March 24, 2010 by Gopher

[theprofessor]

what in the hell are u talking about? disrespected? by who on what planet?

 

ridiculous statement partner

 

I agree 100%

[wildcat2334]

Injuries continue to hammer good teams - Onuaku, Lucas, Hummel, now WVU's starting PG, Truck Bryant, has broken his foot in practice and is done for the year. Averages about 25 minutes, 10 ppg. They don't have another guy on that roster who resembles a PG and they only run about 7 deep as it is. Pretty big blow to them. If the get past UW, Wall and Bledsoe wiill give them fits in the Elite Eight. Yes, I am discounting Cornell.

 

 

this is hugh - UW already had a nice advantage at PG with Thomas/Overton - this is gonna be tough to overcome. Overton is flat out nasty as an on the ball defender and Mazzula is not a true PG and is s-l-o-w. Overton will be in his jersey all night long.

 

The more I look at this game, combined with this new injury - I really like UW, I think htey have a big advantage offensively and I think WVU a big edge on D - but I think in the end UW gets the W

[theprofessor]

this is hugh - UW already had a nice advantage at PG with Thomas/Overton - this is gonna be tough to overcome. Overton is flat out nasty as an on the ball defender and Mazzula is not a true PG and is s-l-o-w. Overton will be in his jersey all night long.

 

The more I look at this game, combined with this new injury - I really like UW, I think htey have a big advantage offensively and I think WVU a big edge on D - but I think in the end UW gets the W

 

I'm with you on most of this but I think the difference might be how UW does on the boards. West Virginia is big and strong up front and if they control the boards, as most expect them to, it could be a long night for the Dawgs. We have a huge advantage in depth though and if this game gets physical and the referee's get whistle happy our depth might prove to be too much for the Mountaineers. I just love that this game is a 11 seed versus a 2 and is being touted as one of the most competitive matchups left on the card.

[Gopher]

I had this game as a toss-up, prior to the injury, leaning SLIGHTLY towards West Virginia (probably mainly due to the fact that I have underestimated them a couple of times this season, and they've proven me wrong... trying not to make that mistake again). Now, I tend to agree with you guys... this injury really makes things tough for Bob Huggins' team. Like I said, though, I don't know what PG's West Virginia has on its bench, besides Mazzulla, who's not really a PG. I'm now leaning towards Washington, but I wouldn't count WV completely out... they've still got what will be the best scorer on the floor, in Butler (no offense to Pondexter). It will be interesting to see how Butler responds... there is no doubt he'll be more involved in handling the ball pressure, than he normally would be. That may or may not have an adverse affect on his ability to do what he does best, which is score. Either way, as long as WV is able to limit the turnovers (which will be difficult, considering the potential Overton/Thomas-Mazzula matchup) and maintain a rebounding advantage, they have a chance at winning the game.

 

Like I said, I'm now leaning in the opposite direction of what I was originally, but this one is still too close for me to call, at least comfortably.

[Cyclones]

I had this game as a toss-up, prior to the injury, leaning SLIGHTLY towards West Virginia (probably mainly due to the fact that I have underestimated them a couple of times this season, and they've proven me wrong... trying not to make that mistake again). Now, I tend to agree with you guys... this injury really makes things tough for Bob Huggins' team. Like I said, though, I don't know what PG's West Virginia has on its bench, besides Mazzulla, who's not really a PG. I'm now leaning towards Washington, but I wouldn't count WV completely out... they've still got what will be the best scorer on the floor, in Butler (no offense to Pondexter). It will be interesting to see how Butler responds... there is no doubt he'll be more involved in handling the ball pressure, than he normally would be. That may or may not have an adverse affect on his ability to do what he does best, which is score. Either way, as long as WV is able to limit the turnovers (which will be difficult, considering the potential Overton/Thomas-Mazzula matchup) and maintain a rebounding advantage, they have a chance at winning the game.

 

Like I said, I'm now leaning in the opposite direction of what I was originally, but this one is still too close for me to call, at least comfortably.

 

This injury pretty much seals UK's trip to the Final Four IMHO. Neither Cornell nor Washington can hang with them, and its highly unlikely that a WVU team short its point guard will do much better. Wall and Bledsoe will eat them alive.

[theprofessor]

This injury pretty much seals UK's trip to the Final Four IMHO. Neither Cornell nor Washington can hang with them, and its highly unlikely that a WVU team short its point guard will do much better. Wall and Bledsoe will eat them alive.

 

I wouldn't be so sure of Kentucky waltzing through any of the remaining teams. Kentucky can be beat and Washington matches up with them athletically better than anyone else. They have an answer for Wall and Bledsoe with Overton and Q-Pon but I think the difference would be Cousins against Bryan-Amaning as I don't think B-A could match Cousins physicality. Look at me talking about playing Kentucky when we have a #2 seed in front of us in powerful West Virginia. I think were going to see a fired up WV team as they are going to want to win this one for Tuck.UW's going to want to run but if they don't hold their own on the boards against WV physical front line we won't get many opportunities to get out in transition.

 

IMO, Tonight and Friday night are the most exciting sporting events all year. Go Dawgs!

[Gopher]

Tonight's Games:

 

Syracuse -6 vs. Butler (138) - The line has gone from -7 to -6, so people are liking Butler more than 'Cuse in this one, but not by a huge margin. Likewise, the total has gone down slightly (from 138.5), which corresponds with the point spread change. If Butler wants to keep this one close, they will try to slow the game down and limit the possessions for Syracuse, I would imagine. Public perception, at least in some cases, is that Syracuse is not unbeatable, and has its weaknesses. Their front line does not shoot free throws well, for example. Another apparent weakness is their lack of depth... they only play about seven guys. My response to that has always been that they play seven guys because those seven are far better than the rest of their bench, but that doesn't mean they don't have other guys who can play. DaShonte Riley has contributed nicely, in their two tournament games so far, playing 12 and 15 minutes in Arinze Onuaku's absence. That's just enough minutes to give Jim Boeheim's starting frontline players the short periods of rest that they need to finish 40 minutes. Also, going back to the free throw's, Onuaku was the team's worst FT shooter, so him being out somewhat eliminates that as a potential "weakness." Rick Jackson also shoots poorly from the line (50% on the season), but he's only attempted 84 on the season... about 2.7 per game.

 

The other question that Syracuse faced, after the Onuaku injury, was whether or not they would struggle in the rebounding department, in his absence. I said, at the time, that forwards Wes Johnson and Kris Joseph would have to contribute more than normal on the boards, for Syracuse to be a Final Four threat without Onuaku. In the win against Gonzaga, the team didn't miss a beat, playing possibly their best game of the year against a Gonzaga team that has plenty of size inside. Most importantly, Johnson and Joseph made a huge impact on the boards, grabbing 14 and 7 rebounds, respectively.

 

My gut feeling on this game is that it is the most likely, of the eight games in this round, to turn into somewhat of a blowout. As impressive as Butler has been during their winning streak (they haven't lost since before Christmas), the Bulldogs haven't played anybody near the caliber of a Syracuse team. Their best wins during their 20-game winning streak, leading up to the tournament, were wins over Wright State (RPI 81), who they beat three times, and two wins over Wisconsin-Green Bay (RPI 108). In other words, that 20-game winning streak was comprised of Butler running the table in the Horizon League, essentially. Granted, I'm not discounting a 20-game winning streak of any kind, and I also admit that Butler impressed me in their wins over UTEP and Murray State in the tournament, but Syracuse is just a different animal for Butler... more talented than any team they have faced, Sure, they beat Ohio State in December... Evan Turner didn't play in that game. They also beat Xavier in December... that was a home game filled with contraversy, involving the game clock elapsing when Xavier's players and coaching staff felt it should have stopped with more than a second left. Syracuse, on a neutral court, will be a different story.

 

I like Syracuse to win this game, and if I had to choose either way, I would go with them to cover the 6-7 points as well. Of course, I'm a teaser guy, so reducing the spread to a point or two is a no-brainer, in a game I am fairly certain Syracuse will win, and win relatively comfortably.

 

Syracuse 78

Butler 65

 

 

West Virginia -4 vs. Washington (140) Two teams with drastically contrasting styles, I find it interesting that the point spread has gone down, while the total as gone down as well. The total going down (from 142) simply says that people are somewhat confident that West Virginia will be able to control the pace of play, at least enough to somewhat limit Washington's transition game. The point spread change is, of course, mostly related to West Virginia losing their starting point guard, Darryl "Truck" Bryant. These are two of the hottest teams in the country, both having won their conference tournaments, and then having two of the most convincing second-round victories in the NCAA tournament, other than a couple of the 1-seeds who won by 30.

 

I liked Washington to cover when the point spread first came out (at -5), and I still like them to cover. In fact, I am leaning towards Washington winning this game outright. West Virginia will need to prove to me that they can handle Washington's pressure, without Bryant. I'm not saying they can't... they very well may be just fine, and I'm certain that Bryant's teammates will be highly motivated to win this game for him. That said, I've seen enough of their backup PG, Mazzula, to know that, although he's a tough, gritty player, he's not exceptionally quick, and he's really not a true PG at all. West Virginia will need to give him help, whether it's from deeper down their bench or from other starters (Butler), in bringing the ball up the court. I think Thomas and Overton could very well give him 40 minutes of trouble, and even with West Virginia's advantage inside, I like Washington to pull this game off. Could go either way, though... I think this will be a close game.

 

Washington 71

West Virginia 70

 

 

Kansas State -5 vs. Xavier (151) I don't have a whole lot to say about this one, but I think Kansas State has an advantage, both outside and inside, over Xavier. I like what Jacob Pullen did against BYU's best player, Jimmer Fredette, on defense. Pullen, despite being banged up with injuries, not only stayed in Fredette's "grill" all night, he also managed to have a career night shooting as well. Pullen was a perfect 11-11 from the free throw line, and hit seven three-point shots, on his way to 34 points. Meanwhile, Fredette, who is known for putting up 30+ point games for BYU on a regular basis, was held to 21 points on 5-13 shooting. The off-night for Fredette was mainly a result of Pullen's non-stop hounding defense. This has the looks of a game that is close for the first 20 minutes or so, but I think KSU will pull away somewhat, in the final minutes. However, Xavier impressed me in their win over Pittsburgh, so I wouldn't be shocked if they keep this game close as well. Still, I like KSU to win, and probably cover the five points.

 

Kansas State 77

Xavier 70

 

 

Kentucky -8 vs. Cornell (146) This is the game that I'm most looking forward to, and I think most neutral fans feel the same way. David vs. Goliath, Hoosiers... the comparisons are endless. I pretty much already stated my thoughts on this game... I think the key matchup will be inside, between talented DeMarcus Cousins of Kentucky, and Cornell's seven-foot center, Jeff Foote. Cousins is clearly the more skilled player, but Foote is no slouch... If he can manage to frustrate Cousins and Kentucky inside, it could prove to be an important factor in this game.

 

I would assume Kentucky coach John Calipari's main focus has been to keep his young players focused on the task at hand. We've all seen Calipari teams in the past, who were highly ranked, fail to meet expectations... UMass, and his early years at Memphis, come to mind. On the other hand, Calipari has proven within the last two seasons that he is capable of taking a team with a freshman point guard to the Final Four and beyond. I think he'll have his team focused tonight, which is why I don't think Cornell will win this game. I do think Cornell is talented enough, and more importantly, experienced enough, to keep it interesting. I'm teasing Cornell to give myself around a 15-point cushion. If I had to wager against the nine-point spread, I would still probably lean towards Cornell, but like Kentucky to win the game.

 

Interesting side note, going back to the Hoosiers comparison... Coach Norman Dale (Gene Hackman's character) came to Indiana to coach the Hickory basketball team, after leaving his previous team in Ithica, New York... Ithica is the home of the Cornell Big Red.

 

Kentucky 78

Cornell 73

 

Edit: I forgot to edit the lines for the Kentucky/Cornell game, which went from -9 and 147 to -8 and 146. So, it appears that there are plenty of people out there liking Cornell to cover. I wonder how many of them have money line wagers on Cornell, to win straight up as well?

Edited March 25, 2010 by Gopher

[godtomsatan]

I had this game as a toss-up, prior to the injury, leaning SLIGHTLY towards West Virginia (probably mainly due to the fact that I have underestimated them a couple of times this season, and they've proven me wrong... trying not to make that mistake again). Now, I tend to agree with you guys... this injury really makes things tough for Bob Huggins' team. Like I said, though, I don't know what PG's West Virginia has on its bench, besides Mazzulla, who's not really a PG. I'm now leaning towards Washington, but I wouldn't count WV completely out... they've still got what will be the best scorer on the floor, in Butler (no offense to Pondexter). It will be interesting to see how Butler responds... there is no doubt he'll be more involved in handling the ball pressure, than he normally would be. That may or may not have an adverse affect on his ability to do what he does best, which is score. Either way, as long as WV is able to limit the turnovers (which will be difficult, considering the potential Overton/Thomas-Mazzula matchup) and maintain a rebounding advantage, they have a chance at winning the game.

 

Like I said, I'm now leaning in the opposite direction of what I was originally, but this one is still too close for me to call, at least comfortably.

 

As awesome as Washington has played the last two weekends and as much as they are clearly peaking in their play as a team (and individuals like the great Quincy Pondexter), the fact is that Marquette and New Mexico were extremely good matchups for this group. West Virginia's size underneath and the number of big bodies they can throw out there to cut off Pondexter from the boards and neutralize Matthew Bryan-Amaning make me skeptical that the Huskies have enough firepower from outside with Isaiah Thomas and Elston Turner to overcome what looks to me like a tremendous advantage for the Mountaineers.

 

That said, this team was mostly gutless and underachieving until mid-February, and even then I wasn't convinced they had any heart until the Pac-10 championship game vs. Cal, and definitely not convinced they had any guts until the last 13 minutes of that Marquette game. They are on a roll, and I sense this team has as good a chance as any of the four Sweet 16 teams we've had in the last 12 years to move on to get destroyed by Kentucky on Saturday.

 

Honestly, I've watched 25 of their 30 games this year and generally have no idea what type of team (outside of Pondexter and Thomas) is going to show up. I put a bunch of money on the Dawgs +4.5, and a homer pittance on the moneyline, and If it pays off, I'll be a happy Husky. All-in-all, I'm done predicting what this team is going to do and just going to root for the biggest win for our program in the last 57 years.

[Gopher]

The Huskies seem to be streaky, and were definitely hot going into last weekend. It will be interesting to see if they can keep that up tonight, or if they will have a letdown at all. After all, I think West Virginia might be the more motivated team, given the Bryant injury. I know, at this point, it's hard to say that one team will be more motivated than the other, but sometimes injuries make teams do surprising things. For example, I didn't expect Purdue to beat the Aggies last weekend, especially after they got down by 10+ early... The Boilermakers won that game because they had something to prove. West Virginia is in a somewhat similar position, needing to prove that they are still a Final Four contending team.

 

Hopefully for the Huskies, they realize that the first step to their fast-break is to block out on the defensive end... I've watched West Virginia quite a bit this year, and would have to say that they're the most relentless team in the country, in terms of crashing the offensive boards.

 

Can't wait... As much as I enjoy the first weekend, this is the point at which every game has the potential to be a classic. I honestly don't even know who I'll be rooting for in most of them... Usually, that means I'll be pulling for the underdogs, once the games get underway. Of course, there are a couple of games where I'm not even sure who I consider to be the underdog, given the injuries, etc.