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HowboutthemCowboys

Semi Official Week 1 Wagering thread

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Have'nt seen Steeltown Dre in quite a while and no sign of koyrunner this season yet either so I thought I'd throw it out there, it's one of my favorite threads every season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9/9 8:30 ET At New Orleans -5.5 Minnesota 48.5

9/12 1:00 ET At NY Giants -7 Carolina 41

9/12 1:00 ET Miami -3 At Buffalo 38.5

9/12 1:00 ET Atlanta -2.5 At Pittsburgh 37.5

9/12 1:00 ET At Chicago -6.5 Detroit 43

9/12 1:00 ET At New England -4.5 Cincinnati 45

9/12 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -3 Cleveland 37

9/12 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -2.5 Denver 39.5

9/12 1:00 ET Indianapolis -2 At Houston 47

9/12 1:00 ET At Tennessee -6 Oakland 40.5

9/12 4:15 ET Green Bay -3 At Philadelphia 47.5

9/12 4:15 ET San Francisco -3 At Seattle 37

9/12 4:15 ET Arizona -4 At St. Louis 39

9/12 8:20 ET Dallas -3.5 At Washington 40

 

 

 

Monday Night Football Line

 

9/13 7:00 ET At NY Jets -2.5 Baltimore 35.5

9/13 10:15 ET San Diego -4.5 At Kansas City 45

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Thanks for getting this up, I'll run point again this year if you want, or maybe we could just say whoever gets to it first. I'll be around all year though, BOL to ya!

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The Wolf    0

I still owe Scooby's Hubby from last year...did NOT forget about it. I gotta go clothes shopping first...

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Ramhock    23

I don't bet but if I did, GB looks good. They had 30 INTs last year. Kolb should throw 2+. The Philly crowd will be crazy but this one could get ugly.

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SheikYerbuti    18
Have'nt seen Steeltown Dre in quite a while

 

He charges for the contents of his cranium now.

 

And I generally don't touch the first 2 weeks of the season. Too many unknowns.

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GB, DAL, & SD games smell like traps...

 

Yep...don't think I've heard one person say "I like Philly, Washington and/or Kansas City".

 

Usually when the betting public is all over one side, its wise to go the other way.

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feel like selling my house and putting it on Niners -2.5 .... Niners should shlack them.

Out of all the plays that look like traps, this is probably the one I like the most. I know SF lost this game last year, but they pretty much handed it away. I doubt they do that again, should be an easy win

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Adding the 49ers -3

 

So I now have

 

49ers -3

Miami -3

SD -4.5

Tenn -6

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* San Fransisco 49ers -3 (+104 @ Pinnacle)

 

Of all the three point road favorites this week, this has to be my favorite. First of all, Seattle is currently in disarray. Their starting Left Tackle is hurt, they just released their #1 WR, and their defensive line is among the worst in the NFL. They're clearly in rebuilding mode, and the best phase of their game, their rushing attack, is matched up with what will be one of the best rush defenses in the NFL in 2010.

 

Last season, the 49ers lost this game. While that's a slightly discouraging sign, there is no doubt in my mind that the 49ers were the clearly superior team in the game. Their loss can be chalked up to bad decisions and bad breaks, and it's clear the 49ers could have easily put about 17 more points on the board had they just taken advantage of opportunities. This year the 49ers will benefit from the return of one of their best offensive linemen, and Frank Gore should shred a pitiful Seattle defense. Look for the 49ers to win this one in a big way.

 

* Packers/Eagles OVER 47.5 (-106)

 

Green Bay's offense has flown high this preseason, with Rodgers and the passing game looking nearly unstoppable. The Packers' biggest weakness last season, their offensive line, has been somewhat addressed this offseason, which should ensure that Rodgers sees more time to throw the ball than last year and doesn't get sacked nearly as much. The Eagles rush defense is clearly superior to their pass defense, meaning that the Packers should focus their attack more through the air, which will certainly be beneficial to the over.

 

While Philadelphia now has QB Kevin Kolb at the helm, despite a shaky preseason I remain convinced that he's not much of a downgrade if any at all from McNabb. He certainly has some great weapons at his disposal with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and much like the Packers the offense is facing a defense that is great against the run. The Eagles will likely have to turn to the passing game to pick on a suspect Packers' secondary, especially if they want any hope of keeping up with Green Bay on the scoreboard. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I fully expect a high scoring affair that may come down to who has the ball last.

 

* Browns/Bucs OVER 37 (-106)

 

I botched games similar to this last year, but believe me I've learned from it. Last season I took two stabs at Browns unders, against the Lions and against the Chiefs. I figured in both situations that the crummy offenses would make the defenses look good, yet in both cases the games turned into shootouts and I lost the bets. This game looks very similar to me, except I actually am a believer in the Tampa Bay offense. While Freeman is returning from a thumb injury, he's been practicing all week and all signs point to him being good to go come Sunday. I've loved what I've seen out of the Tampa Bay passing game this preseason, and against what I believe to be an unimproved Browns defense the Bucs should have no trouble coming by points. The Browns' offense has also looked surprisingly good this preseason, with Jack Delhomme throwing the ball much more accurately than he did last season as a Panther. The Bucs will be missing their top CB Aqib Talib due to a suspension, so the Browns should have no problem moving the ball down the field on this defense. While I lean towards the Bucs winning this one, I feel more confident in the over coming through so I'll stick with that as my play.

 

* Ravens/Jets UNDER 35.5 (+100)

 

I was set to roll with the Ravens in this one, but the return of Revis to the Jets has given me a fresh perspective on this one. Baltimore's offense has been raved about this preseason, but with Revis covering Boldin now there's a good chance that he doesn't make much noise in this game. The Ravens' next best option at WR is Mason, and with Cromartie covering him I've got to think that the Ravens won't get a whole lot done through the passing game. Likely, Baltimore will turn to Ray Rice to win the game for them. The Jets were one of the better teams against the run last year, and playing at home on Sunday night I'd have to believe that while they won't completely contain Rice, they can certainly limit the damage he does.

 

The Jets offense has been unspectacular all preseason, and will be playing this one without WR Santonio Holmes. For the Jets, it all starts with the run, a problem because they are facing the league's #1 rush defense from last year. Assuming the Jets can't get their running game going, which I don't imagine they will be able to, they're going to have to turn to Mark Sanchez to make plays for them. While Baltimore's secondary is currently a bit shaky, you can bet that they'll turn up the pressure on the young QB and I'd imagine he'd be good for a turnover or two. I can't see either of these teams topping 17 points, in reality I think we may see a 16-10 type of game. It'll certainly be a great defensive battle to watch, and while I'm not sure which team comes out ahead, I'm confident that it stays a low scoring game.

 

Good luck this week everyone!

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New Orleans-5.5 L

Buffalo+3

Atlanta-2.5

Detroit+6.5

New England-4.5

Tampa Bay-3

Denver+2.5

Houston+2

Tennessee-6

Green Bay-3

San Francisco-3

St Louis+4

Washington+3.5

Baltimore+2.5

San Diego-4.5

 

*edit*

 

forgot Carolina+7

Edited by Dexter Morgan

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rattsass    103

I like Cincy at +4.5 and love the Chiefs at the same number. Lots of home doggies, could be trouble.

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Bronco Billy    209

Starting to fall in love with JAX -2.5

 

DEN's O-line is not getting any mention from any coaches, and word is out that Clady is still struggling a bit. Between Clady's injury, starting rookies at C and the other OT, and starting a journeyman at guard, this line looks like a potential disaster. That's bad news for both the rushing and passing O of DEN. Kampman could be in for a very, very big day.

 

Word was out earlier in the week that this was going to be the hottest day on record for a JAX game. The heat isn't the big deal - DEN has been in the 90s up until this past week. The humidity combined with the heat is a hugh factor, though. If the humidity is 20% here in DEN, you can feel the dampness in the air from what is normal. Now the team goes into what is going to be a sauna for them. I would expect to see the weather affect DEN significantly, and especially in the 2nd half. There's no way they can deal with such a high heat index, and I can say with absolute certainty it affects you when you travel from DEN to much more humid places, just like the altitude affects teams coming here. It's going to be 10 to 15 degrees warmer on the field.

 

The heat will affect everyone, but especially the linemen. On the D line Jamar Williams has been having a difficult time staying on the field. Now add in the oppresive heat/humidity and I think he'll miss a bunch of plays and be dragging even when he is in. That's going to put a hugh burden on a LB corps that is exceptionally weak with the exception of DJ Williams. If MJD is healthy, and by all accounts he is, he may have a massive day.

 

JAX is 5-1 in the 6 games where the temperatures have been the hottest at gametime, and 3-0 when the temperature is 88 degrees.

 

May be great fun to watch one local exspurt who makes his home at another notorious site and is now into local newspapers and radio, who has been running his mouth all week about how there is no way JAX can win this game backtracking afterwards.

 

I'm having a very difficult time seeing how DEN can salvage a win against a pretty mediocre team here. Some very critical factors are really lining up against them in this game beyond playing on the road in opening weekend.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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Do Work Son    5
* San Fransisco 49ers -3 (+104 @ Pinnacle)

 

Of all the three point road favorites this week, this has to be my favorite. First of all, Seattle is currently in disarray. Their starting Left Tackle is hurt, they just released their #1 WR, and their defensive line is among the worst in the NFL. They're clearly in rebuilding mode, and the best phase of their game, their rushing attack, is matched up with what will be one of the best rush defenses in the NFL in 2010.

 

Last season, the 49ers lost this game. While that's a slightly discouraging sign, there is no doubt in my mind that the 49ers were the clearly superior team in the game. Their loss can be chalked up to bad decisions and bad breaks, and it's clear the 49ers could have easily put about 17 more points on the board had they just taken advantage of opportunities. This year the 49ers will benefit from the return of one of their best offensive linemen, and Frank Gore should shred a pitiful Seattle defense. Look for the 49ers to win this one in a big way.

 

* Packers/Eagles OVER 47.5 (-106)

 

Green Bay's offense has flown high this preseason, with Rodgers and the passing game looking nearly unstoppable. The Packers' biggest weakness last season, their offensive line, has been somewhat addressed this offseason, which should ensure that Rodgers sees more time to throw the ball than last year and doesn't get sacked nearly as much. The Eagles rush defense is clearly superior to their pass defense, meaning that the Packers should focus their attack more through the air, which will certainly be beneficial to the over.

 

While Philadelphia now has QB Kevin Kolb at the helm, despite a shaky preseason I remain convinced that he's not much of a downgrade if any at all from McNabb. He certainly has some great weapons at his disposal with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and much like the Packers the offense is facing a defense that is great against the run. The Eagles will likely have to turn to the passing game to pick on a suspect Packers' secondary, especially if they want any hope of keeping up with Green Bay on the scoreboard. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I fully expect a high scoring affair that may come down to who has the ball last.

 

* Browns/Bucs OVER 37 (-106)

 

I botched games similar to this last year, but believe me I've learned from it. Last season I took two stabs at Browns unders, against the Lions and against the Chiefs. I figured in both situations that the crummy offenses would make the defenses look good, yet in both cases the games turned into shootouts and I lost the bets. This game looks very similar to me, except I actually am a believer in the Tampa Bay offense. While Freeman is returning from a thumb injury, he's been practicing all week and all signs point to him being good to go come Sunday. I've loved what I've seen out of the Tampa Bay passing game this preseason, and against what I believe to be an unimproved Browns defense the Bucs should have no trouble coming by points. The Browns' offense has also looked surprisingly good this preseason, with Jack Delhomme throwing the ball much more accurately than he did last season as a Panther. The Bucs will be missing their top CB Aqib Talib due to a suspension, so the Browns should have no problem moving the ball down the field on this defense. While I lean towards the Bucs winning this one, I feel more confident in the over coming through so I'll stick with that as my play.

 

* Ravens/Jets UNDER 35.5 (+100)

 

I was set to roll with the Ravens in this one, but the return of Revis to the Jets has given me a fresh perspective on this one. Baltimore's offense has been raved about this preseason, but with Revis covering Boldin now there's a good chance that he doesn't make much noise in this game. The Ravens' next best option at WR is Mason, and with Cromartie covering him I've got to think that the Ravens won't get a whole lot done through the passing game. Likely, Baltimore will turn to Ray Rice to win the game for them. The Jets were one of the better teams against the run last year, and playing at home on Sunday night I'd have to believe that while they won't completely contain Rice, they can certainly limit the damage he does.

 

The Jets offense has been unspectacular all preseason, and will be playing this one without WR Santonio Holmes. For the Jets, it all starts with the run, a problem because they are facing the league's #1 rush defense from last year. Assuming the Jets can't get their running game going, which I don't imagine they will be able to, they're going to have to turn to Mark Sanchez to make plays for them. While Baltimore's secondary is currently a bit shaky, you can bet that they'll turn up the pressure on the young QB and I'd imagine he'd be good for a turnover or two. I can't see either of these teams topping 17 points, in reality I think we may see a 16-10 type of game. It'll certainly be a great defensive battle to watch, and while I'm not sure which team comes out ahead, I'm confident that it stays a low scoring game.

 

Good luck this week everyone!

 

I likey the over in that game as well...good luck.

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