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AL Cy Young Winner


wildcat2334
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Felix Hernandez just had his 30th quality start of the year- pretty good company 30 Quality Start List

 

Baseball is such a numbers sport, I think he will end up taking it, although I don't have a problem with CC or Price winning

 

Pretty exclusive company and a phenomenal season from start to end and one of the best in the past 30 years

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I can't call this. Obviously I'm biased towards Felix, and most of the numbers back that up. Which ERA is more dominant, Felix at one of the premier pitcher's parks in alll of baseball, or CC's ERA at the launching pad that is the new Yankee stadium? Also, Felix didn't have to pitch a meaningful game with pressure all season long. CC and Price both had some major performances with a lot riding on that game. Felix wins 23 this year if he plays for the Yankees. CC wins roughly 13 if he plays for the Mariners. Strikeouts should not ever come into play when discussing successes of pitchers, so I can't give Felix any edge there. The biggest argument against Felix is that he should have found a way to win more games, but the guy has a .095 ERA over his last ten starts and is only 6-3. He is in the AL, so he can't put on a helmet and help his team hit. I really dunno. I think this is going to be a ridiculously close race. Felix's biggest hope is that a lot of the Sabathia and Price supporters kind of cancel each other out.

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I saw the list as well (of pitchers who have thrown 30 quality starts in the same season, in the past 30 years)... It's a pretty damn impressive list. I'm not going to say whether or not that makes Felix the favorite for the CY, but he is certainly right at the top of the list. Very impressive, no matter what team you're on. :wacko:

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The more I think about it, the more I would be leaning towards Sabathia if I had a vote. He went 21-7 with an ERA in the low threes, while pitching his home games in a launching pad and being in the same division as Boston, Tampa and Toronto. How much lower would his ERA be if he got to play against Oakland and Anaheim instead?

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Very true, but I would bet that even then he got quite a bit more run support than Felix.

maybe so but with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games I don't think it would have mattered much.

 

fwiw I did a quick search and found 2 figures so not sure which is right but one showed that Carlton got 3.5 runs/start and another said he got 3.8 runs/start...and fwiw also the Phils only won 59 games that year.

 

edit: also if you aren't getting run support than you are definitely going to increase your chances for a loss when you give up 5 or more runs in a start...

Carlton only gave up 5+ runs 7% of the time in 72 and as good as Felix has been he has given up 5+ runs in 15% of his starts.

Edited by keggerz
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maybe so but with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games I don't think it would have mattered much.

 

fwiw I did a quick search and found 2 figures so not sure which is right but one showed that Carlton got 3.5 runs/start and another said he got 3.8 runs/start...and fwiw also the Phils only won 59 games that year.

 

edit: also if you aren't getting run support than you are definitely going to increase your chances for a loss when you give up 5 or more runs in a start...

Carlton only gave up 5+ runs 7% of the time in 72 and as good as Felix has been he has given up 5+ runs in 15% of his starts.

Runs or earned runs? In 34 starts, Felix has given up more than 4 earned runs three times... He's given up five runs once, and seven runs twice. That's less than ten percent. If you're talking runs in general, then yes, he's given up more than five two more times (five times total). One of those two times was on 8/15 at Cleveland... he gave up six runs (none of which were earned). The other was at Anaheim on 9/11, where he gave up seven runs (four earned).

 

Either way, only three instances of more than four earned runs, in 34 starts, is incredible in any ballpark. I would agree that Carlton's season was probably SLIGHTLY better, but these types of seasons (pretty much absolute dominance, on a terrible team, to the point of getting serious CY consideration) only come around every decade or so.

 

A couple of other stats that are pretty amazing, regarding the season that Hernandez is having... He has failed to complete the sixth inning only twice all season, and those were back-to-back starts back on May 1 and May 7. Also he has failed to get at least one batter out in the 7th inning (or later) only four times all season, the last of which was on June 8th. In his 21 starts SINCE June 8th, he's failed to complete the 7th inning only three times... in all three of those outings, he retired at least one batter in the 7th (but failed to complete the inning). Talk about an absolute workhorse. :wacko:

 

Edit: The only reason I ask whether you were referring to earned runs or not is that the "quality" starts criteria is based off of earned runs (I think), not just runs. Like I said, either way, Carlton was probably slightly better.

Edited by Gopher
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maybe so but with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games I don't think it would have mattered much.

 

fwiw I did a quick search and found 2 figures so not sure which is right but one showed that Carlton got 3.5 runs/start and another said he got 3.8 runs/start...and fwiw also the Phils only won 59 games that year.

 

edit: also if you aren't getting run support than you are definitely going to increase your chances for a loss when you give up 5 or more runs in a start...

Carlton only gave up 5+ runs 7% of the time in 72 and as good as Felix has been he has given up 5+ runs in 15% of his starts.

I don't think your math is quite right there. No way did Felix give up 5 runs in every 6th start. His ERA would have to be higher if he had. Carlton gave up 5 earned runs twice in 1972. Felix gave up 5 earned runs three times this season. 3 out of 34 starts is a ways under 10 percent.

 

As of September 24, Felix had received 3.07 runs per game of support, which is substantially less than Carlton, and is also the lowest in the AL.

 

Some interesting facts on Felix's season

 

I do understand the context, but also feel it is important to note that Steve Carlton isn't in the running for the 2010 version of the AL Cy Young Award. Was Carlton's season tremendous? Absolutely. Even a little better than Felix's, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Felix's season isn't Cy Young worthy.

Edited by Seahawks21
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will be interesting to see who takes it. All the number/saber metric-loving baseball dork writers will probably give it to Felix. Pitching is such an independent position, I think I saw with the worst run support in MLB - along with the 12 losses and 9 no decisions pretty telling stat really.

 

He has had one of the best overall pitching perfromances in 30 years - all six of the 30 quailty start guys won the CY.......

 

I saw a poll a few months back - Felix was overwhelmingly the first choice among GM's to head up a pitching staff.

 

Cy or no Cy- he is the best pitcher in baseball

Edited by wildcat2334
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I have read over at Yahoo that Fernandez has a run support of 3.09 runs per game. I doubt Price or CC could do better than 13 wins with that little run support or Seattle's defense behind him. CC's WHIP - 1.19, Price's WHIP - 1.20, and Fernandez's WHIP - 1.06. Definition - WHIP - Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched.

 

I feel that Fernandez should be the winner. See last years results. Lincencum and Greinke both had under 15 wins (14 I think).

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The more I think about it, the more I would be leaning towards Sabathia if I had a vote. He went 21-7 with an ERA in the low threes, while pitching his home games in a launching pad and being in the same division as Boston, Tampa and Toronto. How much lower would his ERA be if he got to play against Oakland and Anaheim instead?

 

 

I think CC beat my Orioles about 17 times this year

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  • 1 month later...

This award should go to the most dominant pitcher. It isn't an MVP award. It went to the right player, and the voting reflects that. I like to look at it this way: If you want to win a world series next year, which pitcher would you want above all of the others, of course with the caveat one could expect repeat performances? That's an easy one.

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