BCS NC Game - Pecking Order

[Rockerbraves]

Still alot of football left to play, but here is my realistic BCS pecking order going into this Thanksgiving weekend. I fully understand come next week this will obviously change considering Auburn travels to Alabama while Arkansas host LSU.

 

1 Auburn

2 Oregon

3 LSU

4 Boise State

5 TCU

6. Alabama

7 Wisconsin

8 Stanford

9 Ohio State

10 Oklahoma St

11 Michigan State

12 Arkansas - would be higher except it would take Auburn losing to Bama which makes it impossible for them to jump Bama

 

Wow the SEC West is a beast! Obviously I'm not the only one who believes this because here we are in week 13 and the SEC West has 4 teams in the official BCS top 12 rankings

 

Not saying 2 SEC teams need/should be in the BCS NC should Oregon stumble, but I do believe if Auburn drops a game a one loss SEC team should trump an undefeated TCU or Boise team as should a 2 loss Bama team trump any one loss non SEC team.

 

You all must admit, any BCS NC not including a SEC team could not be taken seriously considering the SEC has produced 6 BCS Champions, 5 of the last 7 including the last 4. And the SEC has never lost a BCS NC game!

 

And if you look closer 4 different SEC teams ( Florida 2, LSU 2, Bama 1, Tennessee 1) contributed to that feat. What's truly amazing is the SEC top BCS candidate this season is a 5th different team with the Auburn Tigers. And lastly no other BCS conference can come close to the SEC overall 14-5 BCS Bowl record.

 

The only road to a legit National Championship must come thru the SEC.

[SEC=UGA]

Still alot of football left to play, but here is my realistic BCS pecking order going into this Thanksgiving weekend. I fully understand come next week this will obviously change considering Auburn travels to Alabama while Arkansas host LSU.

 

1 Auburn

2 Oregon

3 LSU

4 Boise State

5 TCU

6. Alabama

7 Wisconsin

8 Stanford

9 Ohio State

10 Oklahoma St

11 Michigan State

12 Arkansas - would be higher except it would take Auburn losing to Bama which makes it impossible for them to jump Bama

 

Wow the SEC West is a beast! Obviously I'm not the only one who believes this because here we are in week 13 and the SEC West has 4 teams in the official BCS top 12 rankings

 

Not saying 2 SEC teams need/should be in the BCS NC should Oregon stumble, but I do believe if Auburn drops a game a one loss SEC team should trump an undefeated TCU or Boise team as should a 2 loss Bama team trump any one loss non SEC team.

 

You all must admit, any BCS NC not including a SEC team could not be taken seriously considering the SEC has produced 6 BCS Champions, 5 of the last 7 including the last 4. And the SEC has never lost a BCS NC game!

 

And if you look closer 4 different SEC teams ( Florida 2, LSU 2, Bama 1, Tennessee 1) contributed to that feat. What's truly amazing is the SEC top BCS candidate this season is a 5th different team with the Auburn Tigers. And lastly no other BCS conference can come close to the SEC overall 14-5 BCS Bowl record.

 

The only road to a legit National Championship must come thru the SEC.

 

In any other season I would wholeheartedly concur, not this year, though. If Auburn loses either the Bama or SEC Champ game and Oregon, TCU, Boise are undefeated, two of those three should play for the NC and AUburn or Stanford should get the odd man out. Under the above circumstances, I'd really like to see TCU get Oregon and Stanford and Auburn play, but think that Boise should get a shot at one of the big dogs.

 

The SEC is not that strong this year and I do believe it will be a long bowl season for the conference.

[theprofessor]

In any other season I would wholeheartedly concur, not this year, though. If Auburn loses either the Bama or SEC Champ game and Oregon, TCU, Boise are undefeated, two of those three should play for the NC and AUburn or Stanford should get the odd man out. Under the above circumstances, I'd really like to see TCU get Oregon and Stanford and Auburn play, but think that Boise should get a shot at one of the big dogs.

 

The SEC is not that strong this year and I do believe it will be a long bowl season for the conference.

 

What he said.

[theprofessor]

Still alot of football left to play, but here is my realistic BCS pecking order going into this Thanksgiving weekend. I fully understand come next week this will obviously change considering Auburn travels to Alabama while Arkansas host LSU.

 

1 Auburn

2 Oregon

3 LSU

4 Boise State

5 TCU

6. Alabama

7 Wisconsin

8 Stanford

9 Ohio State

10 Oklahoma St

11 Michigan State

12 Arkansas - would be higher except it would take Auburn losing to Bama which makes it impossible for them to jump Bama

 

Wow the SEC West is a beast! Obviously I'm not the only one who believes this because here we are in week 13 and the SEC West has 4 teams in the official BCS top 12 rankings

 

Not saying 2 SEC teams need/should be in the BCS NC should Oregon stumble, but I do believe if Auburn drops a game a one loss SEC team should trump an undefeated TCU or Boise team as should a 2 loss Bama team trump any one loss non SEC team.

 

You all must admit, any BCS NC not including a SEC team could not be taken seriously considering the SEC has produced 6 BCS Champions, 5 of the last 7 including the last 4. And the SEC has never lost a BCS NC game!

 

And if you look closer 4 different SEC teams ( Florida 2, LSU 2, Bama 1, Tennessee 1) contributed to that feat. What's truly amazing is the SEC top BCS candidate this season is a 5th different team with the Auburn Tigers. And lastly no other BCS conference can come close to the SEC overall 14-5 BCS Bowl record.

 

The only road to a legit National Championship must come thru the SEC.

 

Come on Rocker You're off yours with this post. What the SEC has done in prior BCS Championships should have ZERO to do with what happens THIS year. The reality is, while I would agree that the SEC is the best conference in college football the margin is less than previous years and the SEC is down from previous years. If TCU, Oregon and Boise State finish undefeated and Auburn loses one, which they will to Alabama, then the SEC should be left on the outside looking in.

[untateve]

I assert that a 1-loss Auburn would be favored over BSU. I assert that a 2-loss Alabama would be favored over BSU.

 

I know that this is not how the system works. All the more reason for a playoff to be put into place.

[Rockerbraves]

Come on Rocker You're off yours with this post. What the SEC has done in prior BCS Championships should have ZERO to do with what happens THIS year. The reality is, while I would agree that the SEC is the best conference in college football the margin is less than previous years and the SEC is down from previous years. If TCU, Oregon and Boise State finish undefeated and Auburn loses one, which they will to Alabama, then the SEC should be left on the outside looking in.

Why do you think the SEC is down this year? As I noted the SEC has 4 teams in the top 12 this week inluding the #2 & #5 ranked teams. Compare that to the last two season in the 13th week the SEC only had 2 teams in the top 12.

[wildcat2334]

awesome weekend of college football - can't wait for the Iron Bowl, UA/Oregon, Boise/Nevada, LSU/Ark and Okie/Okie State

 

just some great matchups.

 

oh yeah, not sure how you have a 2L Bama ahead of WIsky/Stanford

 

early predictions:

 

Bama

Oregon

Boise

Ark

Okie State

[SEC=UGA]

awesome weekend of college football - can't wait for the Iron Bowl, UA/Oregon, Boise/Nevada, LSU/Ark and Okie/Okie State

 

just some great matchups.

 

oh yeah, not sure how you have a 2L Bama ahead of WIsky/Stanford

 

early predictions:

 

Bama

Oregon

Boise

Ark

Okie State

 

Bama

Oregon

Boise (Nevada blows)

LSU

Okie

 

Should be a good weekend, though.

[Rockerbraves]

oh yeah, not sure how you have a 2L Bama ahead of WIsky/Stanford

It's not a ranking order but a pecking order. Should Bama beat and especially dominate Auburn it would be hard for me to not consider a 2 loss Bama team over both Wisconsin and Stanford.

 

Bama had a target on the back all season being defending NC and every SEC team somehow managed to have an open date the week prior to playing the Tide. And if you look at Alabama's schedule they played most their tough SEC games on the road vs Arkansas, South Carolina and LSU.

 

Here's a few more interesting games

 

Michigan @ Ohio State - Should state beat the spread Michigan might be Coach shopping again

 

Notre Dame @ USC

 

Florida @ Florida State

 

Miss State @ Ole Miss

 

South Carolina @ Clemson

 

Michigan St @ Penn State

 

Almost forgot one with BCS implications

 

TCU @ New Mexico - Horn Frogs better be ready to play

Edited November 23, 2010 by Rockerbraves

[detlef]

I'm not going to argue that the SEC isn't the strongest conference year in and year out. That said, it is the National Championship. And as long as we're doing beauty pageants to decide who plays in it, I don't think it has to include a SEC team.

 

LSU being in the 3 hole makes far too little sense. Especially since you're talking "pecking order". The only way LSU should go is if 1) Auburn loses to Bama badly or loses to both Bama and SC and, BSU or TCU stumble down the stretch. Even if you exclude BSU and TCU from the picture, you simply can't take a LSU team that didn't even make the SEC Championship over an Auburn team that beat them head to head and won the SEC. So that's a lot of things that have to happen for LSU to go.

 

I can see a 1-loss Auburn team who bounces back with a dominant performance over SC in the SEC title game jumping over TCU or BSU, but not an LSU team who's sitting on the couch watching. Remember, the SEC title game has been the ace in the hole a number of times for the SEC. It's what allowed FL and LSU to jump past teams who were ahead of them in the rankings in the past. That's a card that LSU doesn't get to play this year.

 

Again, I've made it abundantly clear that I believe that an undefeated TCU or BSU team should be taken ahead of any 1-loss team. I'm just saying that I could see a team with the luxury of another game against a ranked opponent making the leap.

 

What leads you to believe that voters would all of a sudden change their minds on BSU and TCU? I don't think there's enough that can happen to change the computers, so the voters who've been voting these two teams ahead of LSU and co. would all of a sudden have to change their minds.

[Rockerbraves]

I'm not going to argue that the SEC isn't the strongest conference year in and year out. That said, it is the National Championship. And as long as we're doing beauty pageants to decide who plays in it, I don't think it has to include a SEC team.

 

LSU being in the 3 hole makes far too little sense. Especially since you're talking "pecking order". The only way LSU should go is if 1) Auburn loses to Bama badly or loses to both Bama and SC and, BSU or TCU stumble down the stretch. Even if you exclude BSU and TCU from the picture, you simply can't take a LSU team that didn't even make the SEC Championship over an Auburn team that beat them head to head and won the SEC. So that's a lot of things that have to happen for LSU to go.

 

I can see a 1-loss Auburn team who bounces back with a dominant performance over SC in the SEC title game jumping over TCU or BSU, but not an LSU team who's sitting on the couch watching. Remember, the SEC title game has been the ace in the hole a number of times for the SEC. It's what allowed FL and LSU to jump past teams who were ahead of them in the rankings in the past. That's a card that LSU doesn't get to play this year.

 

Again, I've made it abundantly clear that I believe that an undefeated TCU or BSU team should be taken ahead of any 1-loss team. I'm just saying that I could see a team with the luxury of another game against a ranked opponent making the leap.

 

What leads you to believe that voters would all of a sudden change their minds on BSU and TCU? I don't think there's enough that can happen to change the computers, so the voters who've been voting these two teams ahead of LSU and co. would all of a sudden have to change their minds.

What most non SEC fans don't realize is if LSU beats Arkansas and Auburn were to lose to Bama that would make LSU officially SEC West co-champs. I know it's not anywhere close to winning the conference but it's something. Auburn will deservingly go before LSU unless of course they lose both games or get embarrased in one of them,. And I'm fine with that. This isn't about making a case for LSU but for the SEC.

 

What do you think happens should Auburn loses twice & Oregon loses one of their last two games?

[Bonedaddies]

What do you think happens should Auburn loses twice & Oregon loses one of their last two games?

 

It depends if Auburn loses both in regulation of if they are both overtime losses...if they lose in regulation they are done, if both are in OT, well then that is another story.....

 

Sorry Rock, couldn't pass that one up!

[Bonedaddies]

awesome weekend of college football - can't wait for the Iron Bowl, UA/Oregon, Boise/Nevada, LSU/Ark and Okie/Okie State

 

just some great matchups.

 

oh yeah, not sure how you have a 2L Bama ahead of WIsky/Stanford

 

early predictions:

 

Bama

Oregon

Boise

Ark

Okie State

 

I'll take"

 

Bama

Oregon

Nevada

Ark

Okie St

Texas (aggies blow)

[detlef]

What most non SEC fans don't realize is if LSU beats Arkansas and Auburn were to lose to Bama that would make LSU officially SEC West co-champs. I know it's not anywhere close to winning the conference but it's something. Auburn will deservingly go before LSU unless of course they lose both games or get embarrased in one of them,. And I'm fine with that. This isn't about making a case for LSU but for the SEC.

 

What do you think happens should Auburn loses twice & Oregon loses one of their last two games?

Well, for starters, if both OU and Auburn eliminate themselves from the conversation and either TCU or BSU are undefeated, they're not going to get passed up. It would be a PR nightmare. Yes Rocker, the nation could sleep at night even if a SEC team isn't playing in the title game. Now, it might by LSU vs one of those two teams, but I don't believe that they'd be next in line as you say. However, with how Wisconsin is playing, and considering the quagmire in the SEC west, I could see that messing things up for voters. Say Auburn takes care of Bama and then loses badly to SC. Some might find it tough to put Auburn in the title game and just as tough to put a team that lost to them head to head, didn't win even it's conference division, and sat at home that week, in ahead of them. That they might go looking else where to give the vote needed.

 

And like hell you're not making an argument for LSU.

[Rockerbraves]

It depends if Auburn loses both in regulation of if they are both overtime losses...if they lose in regulation they are done, if both are in OT, well then that is another story.....

 

Sorry Rock, couldn't pass that one up!

I don't know OT is almost like regulation football so it might be perceived as a lost like in the NFL. Now if it took double OT to beat Auburn I see your point. Triple or more OT they just as soon flip a coin.

[Rockerbraves]

Well, for starters, if both OU and Auburn eliminate themselves from the conversation and either TCU or BSU are undefeated, they're not going to get passed up. It would be a PR nightmare. Yes Rocker, the nation could sleep at night even if a SEC team isn't playing in the title game. Now, it might by LSU vs one of those two teams, but I don't believe that they'd be next in line as you say. However, with how Wisconsin is playing, and considering the quagmire in the SEC west, I could see that messing things up for voters. Say Auburn takes care of Bama and then loses badly to SC. Some might find it tough to put Auburn in the title game and just as tough to put a team that lost to them head to head, didn't win even it's conference division, and sat at home that week, in ahead of them. That they might go looking else where to give the vote needed.

 

And like hell you're not making an argument for LSU.

I agree the nation could sleep at night if a SEC team were not in the BCS NC game especially if Boise were to play TCU because most would fall asleep watching that snoozer or skip it all together. The point is only one of those two teams is likely to get an invite. Right or wrong I feel confident that the human voters will not allow this to happen and of course the unbias computers won't be in favor as well.

 

So you think I'm making a case for LSU? Not really but LSU is a member of the SEC so perhaps I should.

 

You mentioned Wisconsin. Isn't Wisconsin already ahead of LSU in the human vote? And yet isn't LSU still ahead of the Badgers in the BCS rankings? We know SHOULD both LSU and Wisconsin win the unbias computer will not change their rankings. In fact LSU will likely push further ahead in those computer rankings.

 

That means that voters would actually have to punish LSU for beating a highly ranked team on the road. Not impossible, but not likely either especially if Wisconsin does not win the Big Ten title out right. If you want to argue about LSU not winning the SEC same could be said about Wisconsin should Michigan State beat Penn State since they beat the Badgers. You get my point?

 

The chances of LSU getting into the BCS NC is a LONG SHOT that depends on a number of things should TCU and Boise remain undefeated. .

 

First off Oregon needs to drop a game, Auburn needs to lose twice or get humiliated in one of their last two games as well as any team other than a one lost Oklahoma State team needs to win the Big 12 title game. While that is LONG SHOT it probably has better odds of happening than what happen in 2007 when Missouri lost to Oklahoma and a 28 point underdog Pitt team beat West Virginia.

[detlef]

I agree the nation could sleep at night if a SEC team were not in the BCS NC game especially if Boise were to play TCU because most would fall asleep watching that snoozer or skip it all together. The point is only one of those two teams is likely to get an invite. Right or wrong I feel confident that the human voters will not allow this to happen and of course the unbias computers won't be in favor as well.

 

So you think I'm making a case for LSU? Not really but LSU is a member of the SEC so perhaps I should.

 

You mentioned Wisconsin. Isn't Wisconsin already ahead of LSU in the human vote? And yet isn't LSU still ahead of the Badgers in the BCS rankings? We know SHOULD both LSU and Wisconsin win the unbias computer will not change their rankings. In fact LSU will likely push further ahead in those computer rankings.

 

That means that voters would actually have to punish LSU for beating a highly ranked team on the road. Not impossible, but not likely either especially if Wisconsin does not win the Big Ten title out right. If you want to argue about LSU not winning the SEC same could be said about Wisconsin should Michigan State beat Penn State since they beat the Badgers. You get my point?

 

The chances of LSU getting into the BCS NC is a LONG SHOT that depends on a number of things should TCU and Boise remain undefeated. .

 

First off Oregon needs to drop a game, Auburn needs to lose twice or get humiliated in one of their last two games as well as any team other than a one lost Oklahoma State team needs to win the Big 12 title game. While that is LONG SHOT it probably has better odds of happening than what happen in 2007 when Missouri lost to Oklahoma and a 28 point underdog Pitt team beat West Virginia.

You again fail to mention the fact that LSU had the SEC Championship game to make a case. You do make a good point about Wisconsin already being ahead of LSU in the polls, so there's not much that can happen.

 

FWIW, I really hope it is not TCU vs BSU in the title game (though it would be a shame to exclude one if they were the last two undefeated teams standing). I really, really, really want to see them each matched up against an elite BCS-level team. Not because I'm convinced they'd beat them but because I just want to see if they could and end all the speculating.

 

Regardless, even if neither Stanford or Wisc can pass LSU, they're still not #3 in the pecking order. If BSU and TCU both win out, BSU will pass TCU on the merits of the victory over Nevada. That puts them in the driver's seat provided Oregon or Auburn get knocked off. You could make a case for LSU being next in line behind them because there might be something in the BCS that doesn't allow two AQ schools to play in the NC game(not sure about that. I do know that only one non-AQ school is assured a spot in the BCS even if two meet the criteria). However, OSU gets two more games against ranked teams to make their case and could be the wildcard. But that would seem to be the best case scenario for LSU.

[wildcat2334]

I assert that a 1-loss Auburn would be favored over BSU. I assert that a 2-loss Alabama would be favored over BSU.

 

I know that this is not how the system works. All the more reason for a playoff to be put into place.

 

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that......I think Boise would possibley be favored over Bama

 

but I am with ya somewhat. Vegas would do a better job setting a top 12 seeding than the BCS for a playoff

[Rockerbraves]

You again fail to mention the fact that LSU had the SEC Championship game to make a case. You do make a good point about Wisconsin already being ahead of LSU in the polls, so there's not much that can happen.

 

FWIW, I really hope it is not TCU vs BSU in the title game (though it would be a shame to exclude one if they were the last two undefeated teams standing). I really, really, really want to see them each matched up against an elite BCS-level team. Not because I'm convinced they'd beat them but because I just want to see if they could and end all the speculating.

 

Regardless, even if neither Stanford or Wisc can pass LSU, they're still not #3 in the pecking order. If BSU and TCU both win out, BSU will pass TCU on the merits of the victory over Nevada. That puts them in the driver's seat provided Oregon or Auburn get knocked off. You could make a case for LSU being next in line behind them because there might be something in the BCS that doesn't allow two AQ schools to play in the NC game(not sure about that. I do know that only one non-AQ school is assured a spot in the BCS even if two meet the criteria). However, OSU gets two more games against ranked teams to make their case and could be the wildcard. But that would seem to be the best case scenario for LSU.

Heck if LSU were playing in the conference championship Boise and TCU wouldn't be a concern. That is what is making LSU a long shot because I do think one of those two teams get in should Auburn and Oregon stumble just not sure which one? So I don't think you can say with certainty that Boise or TCU are in much better position than LSU because I feel confident only one will get in. Which one is what makes them a long shot. If you take then as a pair meaning just one has to make it then maybe not such a long shot. If that makes sense?

Edited November 24, 2010 by Rockerbraves

[untateve]

I wouldn't be so sure about that......I think Boise would possibley be favored over Bama

 

but I am with ya somewhat. Vegas would do a better job setting a top 12 seeding than the BCS for a playoff

 

On a neutral field, I think Alabama is favored. In the blue stadium, BSU might be favored. I'd take the points and Alabama.

[Rockerbraves]

I wouldn't be so sure about that......I think Boise would possibley be favored over Bama

Come on Wildcat you can't be serious? I know it's hard to predict how you might feel IF something were to happen, but should Bama knocked off Auburn are you telling me you really don't feel Bama would be favored over Little Boise State?

[wildcat2334]

On a neutral field, I think Alabama is favored. In the blue stadium, BSU might be favored. I'd take the points and Alabama.

 

u may be right, and if Bama was favored I would take Boise and the points - they are the better football team.

[detlef]

Heck if LSU were playing in the conference championship Boise and TCU wouldn't be a concern. That is what is making LSU a long shot because I do think one of those two teams get in should Auburn and Oregon stumble just not sure which one? So I don't think you can say with certainty that Boise or TCU are in much better position than LSU because I feel confident only one will get in. Which one is what makes them a long shot. If you take then as a pair meaning just one has to make it then maybe not such a long shot. If that makes sense?

But it is pretty much a known. The only way BSU or TCU gets in is if they run the table. That much is obvious. Well, unless BSU does so with a very poor effort, they are going to pass TCU. They're already ahead of them in the polls and simply need that top 25 win to pass them in the overall BCS rankings. At least that's what basically everyone who follows this is saying. So, in other words, BSU is quite firmly in the 3 hole. That puts LSU in the 4 hole at best.

 

Thing is, they actually trail TCU by a pretty decent margin in the total BCS pts, so I don't know if they catch them on the strength of the Arkansas win. Of course, if BSU loses, and LSU wins, they do move up a slot in the polls, so that coupled with the Arkansas win might do it. Then again, TCU moves up as well.

 

So, one would think that, mathematically, you'd need the following to happen. Besides you taking care of business this Saturday, obviously. First off, two of the following need to happen OU needs to lose once, Auburn needs to lose twice or once badly, and BSU need to lose. Then something needs to happen for LSU to pass Wisconsin in the polls so they can move close enough to TCU in the polls to pass them on the strength of their higher computer ranking (which will obviously go up even more with a win vs Arkansas). That means Wisc either needs to lose or at least look really bad while LSU puts on a show.

 

Then, I'd think you'd have to hope that it's not actually BSU and OU who stumble because then the voters know that they're running the risk of an all-SEC NC game which I don't think most want. I thought it was a horrible idea that OSU and Michigan should rematch for the title when that whole thing went down and I think it would be a horrible idea now. Even if the SEC is the strongest conference, it just seems like a stupid idea considering that we have no games pitting conference elites going into the bowl season. Besides, LSU and Auburn already played. But Auburn hasn't played TCU, Wisconsin, Stanford, Okie St, or whomever.

Edited November 24, 2010 by detlef

[theprofessor]

Boise (Nevada blows)

Should be a good weekend, though.

 

Nevada will be a very good test for Boise State, especially on the road. Nevada has a very talented QB and has given Boise State fits in the past.

[Rockerbraves]

So, one would think that, mathematically, you'd need the following to happen. Besides you taking care of business this Saturday, obviously. First off, two of the following need to happen OU needs to lose once, Auburn needs to lose twice or once badly, and BSU need to lose. Then something needs to happen for LSU to pass Wisconsin in the polls so they can move close enough to TCU in the polls to pass them on the strength of their higher computer ranking (which will obviously go up even more with a win vs Arkansas). That means Wisc either needs to lose or at least look really bad while LSU puts on a show.

Bottom line LSU will not likely make it and I'm OK with that. Hopefully LSU is not thinking about anything else but Arkansas. Because they certainly can overlook the Hogs who are a 3 1/2 point favovite.

 

My point is that if for whatever reason Auburn were to stumble against a high caliber SEC team that it would be ashame to have a BCS NC without a team from a conference who continues to prove year end and year out to be the best in college football. My hope is just maybe there will be enough voters out there who agree.