Initiate Change

[Brentastic]

If you will notice, I haven't posted in this thread at all yet. Nor will I do so. Call it a victory if you want, I will call it not wasting my time raining on your parade.

Please, enlighten me on how spending drives the economy and is not, as I claim, the result of a healthy economy. Where does the consumers best interest factor into the Keynesian model? It doesn't because only the Fed wants continual spending/borrowing because they are the sole benefactor of such behavior.

[Brentastic]

I have just discovered the most important documentary ever made. If you care at all about your current life, your future, your children's future or the future of mankind, you need to watch this movie. It touches on everything I have discovered and then some. Critic of me and my ramblings or not I beg each and every one of you to watch this documentary. I have linked the entire movie which is 2 hours long. Just watching the first 10-20 minutes should be enough to keep you watching or get you thinking. Regardless of what you think of me, please watch this movie:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJiCU6Jw0Co

[WashingtonD]

Oh no...the masons

[bushwacked]

I loved it. It was much better than Cats, I'm going to watch it again and again.

[Brentastic]

This is the keynesian philosophy and, IMO, it's flawed. The reality is that consumer spending is the result of a healthy economy, not the driver. The way the economy flows naturally is that interest rates decrease as people save more (and vice versa). So without manipulation, the economy moves as it should because in a low interest rate environment, businesses are more attracted to long-term projects (i.e. the cost of borrowing is cheap).

 

On the flip side, when consumers are spending and not saving - and because the financial sector is collapsing, the Fed decreases interest rates - it causes false signals to businesses who use the low rates to fund long-term projects - at the same time, consumers are borrowing money cheaply and spending on short-term wants/needs. In the short-term the results may not be evident and in fact, the economy may seem to boom or grow as a result. But the longer-term imbalance could be catastrophic.

 

The biggest flaw in Keynesian philosophy is the idea that consumers need to keep spending to drive the economy. But if consumers comply with this flawed logic, nobody ever saves. AND savings increases future spending naturally.

Here is a good article that sort of supports my quote from above. The article doesn't focus on the Fed but it references the problem with artificially lowering interest rates and how that damages the economy further etc...

http://mises.org/daily/5037/Merger-Monday-...ction-of-Wealth

 

Rates are not low because people are delaying consumption and keeping high cash balances. It is the central bank that is keeping rates low, thinking businesses will begin borrowing and then start hiring. So rates are low, and everyone with cash from corporate CEOs to retirees wants to earn something besides 1/2 percent.

 

The CEOs could hire more people and produce more goods and services, but, no matter what the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research says, it's still a recession. Demand isn't that good. People are expensive to hire and especially to fire (if you can fire them at all).

 

Finally, there is increased government interference. Professor Peter Klein has found that firms make acquisitions when faced with increased uncertainty, citing regulatory interference and tax changes as major causes of uncertainty. When faced with increased regulatory interference, firms respond by experimenting, making riskier acquisitions — and consequently more mistakes.

[Brentastic]

And here's another pumping up my boy, Paul: http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/ron-p...-crush-the-fed/

[borge007]

And here's another pumping up my boy, Paul: http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/ron-p...-crush-the-fed/

If he's your boy-that explains a lot!

[Brentastic]

If he's your boy-that explains a lot!

Well, he just recently became my boy since his primary goal is to abbolish the Fed. I've never been into politics much until now.

 

What's not to like other than the perception that he's 'extreme'. Perception is not reality unless you're an automaton.

[Duchess Jack]

I have just discovered the most important documentary ever made. If you care at all about your current life, your future, your children's future or the future of mankind, you need to watch this movie.

 

I undoubtably do and undoubtably won't and it does not effect how I feel about my life, my future, my daughters future or the future of mankind at all.

 

That's kind of the way things go when somebody lacking in credentials thinks he can call folk who disagree with him sheep.

 

Perception is not reality unless you're an automaton. .

unless its your perception vs other people's perception?

Edited February 15, 2011 by Duchess Jack

[Brentastic]

Anybody remember that little accounting 'change' that the Fed made at the beginning of the year? Well I do and I remember thinking that something smelled rotten in Denmark. Well, here's a good article explaining the effect of this change which is essentially that it is now mathematically impossible for the Fed to become insolvent. If they suffer losses they can now cover those loses by claiming negative liabilities. And who are they liable to? The US Treasury. So if the Fed starts losing money because of QE1 and QE2, they just adjust their balance sheets to reflect negative liabilities to the Treasury. It's now impossible for the Fed to become broke. How convenient.

 

Article - http://mises.org/daily/5057/Accenttchuate-...ting-at-the-Fed

[bpwallace49]

Wisconsin Union Busting: Convoluted Economics?

 

 

1912 Textile Strike, Lawrence, MA. by Public Domain

 

 

In my years of exposure to the writings of economists it has become clear to me that there rarely is a convergence of opinion as to the nature of a fiscal crisis or of a viable solution. There is generally some degree of accuracy to all conclusions, with future hindsight being the only indicator of veracity. I'm sure that our current economic and budgetary conundrum is no different.

 

It is from this perspective that I am both perplexed and disturbed by the current events in Madison, Wisconsin where it would seem the political powers are intent on "union busting" as becoming the solution to the state's budgetary woes. Several other states are considering similar bills in their statehouses. I have not heard one economist, whether liberal or conservative, state that excessive power of organized labor was in any way to blame for our economic meltdown. Nor have I heard any one of them make claims that overpaid state and public sector workers were responsible for our demise. On the contrary, despite their many differences, most respected economists agree that the single most overriding cause of the Great Recession was the excessive power of capital, specifically finance capital and it's use of trading in ficticious mortgage instruments and derivatives that created a housing bubble. There is an unusual level of agreement, even among academia, that this was the case.

 

While the financiers have gotten off scott free, and with taxpayer funds racked up record profits and bonuses, real wages here in the U.S. as well as across the free world have been in steady decline since the 1970's. Interestingly, the power of organized labor has been in decline over this same period. Concession after concession on wages, benefits and retirement plans have been made to both management of private sector companies and public sector entities. In some cases unions have given up decades worth of gains. Governors and mayors, particularly in right to work states, make gleeful announcements of companies bringing a few hundred new jobs to their area that pay ten dollars per hour and only mediocre benefits. Most of the time these companies were enticed by tax incentives and sometimes given low cost or even free leases on publicly owned property. Many of the "fortunate" hirees end up drawing food stamps or some other form of assistance just to survive.

 

As is the case with any disaster, blame for the global economic crisis needs a scapegoat. From the very outset of the catastrophe financial moguls, their lobbyists, pundits, and bought politicians have been orchestrating a calculated program of misinformation and demagogy. Their targets have alternately been poor people who received sub-prime mortgages, illegal immigrants, Medicaire and Medicaid recipients, persons on disability, environmentalists, non-Christians, the school lunch program, the Department of Education, Planned Parenthood, American Civil Liberties Union, socialists, and spoiled people who refuse to work for minimum wage. As with most victims of scapegoating, many of these targets have no means of defense.

 

Organized public labor unions in Wisconsin can now be added to the rediculous reasons for state governments going broke. Never mind that of the 137 million dollar shortfall in Wisconsin's budget, 117 million dollars is due to a tax cut for the wealthy pushed through recently by Gov. Scott Walker. Ignore the fact that in the short time he has been in office he eliminated the Department of Commerce and replaced it with a public/private corporation funded with 80 million dollars of taxpayer money with little or no oversight. The public unions have agreed to ALL of the wage and benefit concessions demanded of them. But that is not enough. The governor is intent on busting the union as well, setting a horrid precedent for other states and municipalities to follow suit.

 

As sad and disconcerting this all is, the real tragedy is that the singular cause of our peril will not be addressed. The problem will be left to languish, awaiting it's inevitable return. The finance juggernaut, free from meaningful regulation and with the backing of America's largest lobby, will continue to rack up enormous profit while getting those who are of the least means to shoulder the burden. No one can say what the next crisis will be. It could be a commodities bubble,a sovereign debt crisis, or a failure of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But it will come. Perhaps they are searching already for the next scapegoat.

 

 

Brent I got this one off a facebook link, I figured it was right up your alley.

[Brentastic]

The fact that you're thinking about some of my persistent bits of truth, on your free time, really makes me smile.

 

Thanks for posting.

[Brentastic]

Wiegie,

 

Have you ever read this book? I just found it and I'm going to order it. Just wondering if you have heard of it. It was written in 1899, which means it's closer to the truth.

[Brentastic]

This guy posts some gems every once in awhile. This is one of them.

 

Bernanke, you stupid basturd - Karl Denninger

[wiegie]

Wiegie,

 

Have you ever read this book? I just found it and I'm going to order it. Just wondering if you have heard of it. It was written in 1899, which means it's closer to the truth.

I haven't read this book. I do know that historically there has been a significant opposition to banking in the United States--particularly to large banks. (This is one of the reasons that interstate branching of banks was basically illegal until the passage of the Riegle-Neal Act in 1994.)

 

Here is an excerpt of a research paper I have written about the topic of the opposition and potential problems of large branch-banking networks:

 

EDIT: I have deleted the excerpt of my paper. First off, Brent didn't seem to read it. And secondly, I don't want my research appearing as though it is in any way associated with this nutjob thread.

Edited March 14, 2011 by wiegie

[Brentastic]

I've been flamed before on here regarding my beliefs in astrology or my other esoteric thoughts. Here's one example that shows if you keep an open mind and look everywhere for clues about life, you might be surprised what you discover: Note the original post dates in the upper right.

[Avernus]

I've been flamed before on here regarding my beliefs in astrology or my other esoteric thoughts. Here's one example that shows if you keep an open mind and look everywhere for clues about life, you might be surprised what you discover: Note the original post dates in the upper right.

 

that is very, very incredible and I haven't heard anything about that until now...

 

I wonder what might happen in the 15th when "7 planets are aligned"

[Brentastic]

that is very, very incredible and I haven't heard anything about that until now...

 

I wonder what might happen in the 15th when "7 planets are aligned"

There's a stock market forecaster named Arch Crawford who uses a combination of technical analysis and astrology to predict major stock market moves. Last summer he noted that a 'Cardinal Climax' was beginning around early August and lasting through this March. He indicated that during times when several planets form hard angles to each other (45-, 90-, 135-, or 180-degree angles) are times when humans endure the most stress and one way the stress manifests is via the markets. It should be noted that even he admits that this science is still in the 'covered wagon days' and that many times his interpretation of planets results in nothing of significance. However, the Cardinal Climax according to some is the most difficult alignment in 10,000 years. When asked what the possible consequences of this Cardinal Climax his response was:

Worst cases include a nuclear accident. Nuclear war. Massive societal collapse. Maybe a pole flip, which can wipe out nearly everything.

 

Cardinal Climax is especially intimidating because of the proximity to the widely touted Mayan Calendar End Date. Plus, the Christians are looking for the Return of Jesus and/or the Rapture, the Muslims await the return of the umteenth Imam, the White Buffalo has been born, and Jews are fighting over the right to rebuild Solomon's Temple on the 'temple mount' in Jerusalem. These are all signs of “end times” by many different cultures.

 

The one thing most convincing to me is that there are more people alive on the planet today than all who have ever lived in recorded history. So it may be that every soul is on board for this event!

 

At the very least, it's interesting stuff.

[Ursa Majoris]

Cardinal Climax

Is this guy related in any way to Cardinal Sin?

[Avernus]

There's a stock market forecaster named Arch Crawford who uses a combination of technical analysis and astrology to predict major stock market moves. Last summer he noted that a 'Cardinal Climax' was beginning around early August and lasting through this March. He indicated that during times when several planets form hard angles to each other (45-, 90-, 135-, or 180-degree angles) are times when humans endure the most stress and one way the stress manifests is via the markets. It should be noted that even he admits that this science is still in the 'covered wagon days' and that many times his interpretation of planets results in nothing of significance. However, the Cardinal Climax according to some is the most difficult alignment in 10,000 years. When asked what the possible consequences of this Cardinal Climax his response was:

 

 

At the very least, it's interesting stuff.

 

I've done a little reading and found that this 7 planet alignment will probably result in nothing....and this 2012 stuff is just the end of a calendar and there is actually a 13th calendar after it which nobody even talks about...

[Brentastic]

I've done a little reading and found that this 7 planet alignment will probably result in nothing....and this 2012 stuff is just the end of a calendar and there is actually a 13th calendar after it which nobody even talks about...

Well, 2 of his 'worst case scenarios' have already begun:

Worst cases include a nuclear accident. Nuclear war. Massive societal collapse. Maybe a pole flip

 

With the nuclear threats in Japan and the multi-country revolutions going on, I'd say there might be something to it.

[bpwallace49]

that is very, very incredible and I haven't heard anything about that until now...

when "7 planets are aligned

I wonder what might happen in the 15th "

 

I think it has to do with the price of silver . . . .

[Avernus]

I think it has to do with the price of silver . . . .

 

gosh I hope so

[Avernus]

Well, 2 of his 'worst case scenarios' have already begun:

 

 

With the nuclear threats in Japan and the multi-country revolutions going on, I'd say there might be something to it.

 

well a pole shift can take up to 10,000 years but people who come up with the theories try to make it sound as if it's something that is going to happen overnight....it just isn't going to happen like that....

 

but a nuclear war is very possible...but obviously I hope we don't have to resort to that...

[wiegie]

I haven't read this book. I do know that historically there has been a significant opposition to banking in the United States--particularly to large banks. (This is one of the reasons that interstate branching of banks was basically illegal until the passage of the Riegle-Neal Act in 1994.)

 

Here is an excerpt of a research paper I have written about the topic of the opposition and potential problems of large branch-banking networks:

 

EDIT: I have deleted the excerpt of my paper. First off, Brent didn't seem to read it. And secondly, I don't want my research appearing as though it is in any way associated with this nutjob thread.

FYI