March Madness

[Gopher]

This is, without a doubt, one of my favorite (if not my overall favorite) times of the year, from a sports fan's perspective. The NCAA tournament is still one of my favorite events to watch, as well, even though the field has been watered down somewhat over the years, by less and less players staying in school. Admittedly, I have not had nearly as much time this year, to watch hoops, as I have in the past. Still, I have watched bits and pieces of as many games as possible, throughout the season... On average, I probably catch a half-dozen games per week in their entirety, as well as parts of another dozen or so games. Basically, the DVR and fast-forward buttons are my friends... without them, I wouldn't be able to watch half of the basketball that I do.

 

Here is a breakdown, by conference, of the teams that are in the tournament, as well as those who are likely in the tournament. The teams that I classify as "IN" are in regardless of what happens in their conference tournament. The teams in the "Maybe" category don't necessarily have any work to do, to make the tournament, but rather, their record (conference and/or overall) justifies taking a closer look before declaring them in or out. I'll try to update this list on a nightly basis, throughout the rest of this week. In addition, my plan is to take a much closer look at as many of the "maybe" teams as possible. One big key to remember is that the field has been expanded to 68 teams... So, the number of at-large bids has gone from 34 to 37. Here we go....

 

31 Automatic Bids (Conference Tourney Winners):

 

ACC - Duke (30-4)

America East - Boston University (21-13)

Atlantic Sun - Belmont (30-4)

Atlantic 10 - Richmond (27-7)

Big East - UConn (26-9)

Big Sky - Northern Colorado (21-10)

Big South - UNC-Asheville (19-13)

Big Ten - Ohio State (32-2)

Big 12 - Kansas (32-2)

Big West - UC-Santa Barbara (18-13)

Colonial - Old Dominion (27-6)

Conference USA - Memphis 25-9

Horizon - Butler (23-9)

Ivy League (No Tournament)- Princeton (25-6)

MAAC - St. Peter's (20-13)

MAC - Akron (23-12)

MEAC - Hampton (24-8)

Missouri Valley - Indiana State (20-13)

Mountain West - SDSU (32-2)

Northeast - Long Island (27-5)

Ohio Valley - Morehead State (24-9)

Pac-10 - Washington (23-10)

Patriot - Bucknell 25-8

SEC - Kentucky (25-8)

Southern - Wofford (21-12)

Southland - UT-San Antonio (19-13)

Summit - Oakland (25-9)

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock (19-16)

SWAC - Alabama State (17-17)

WAC - Utah State (30-3)

West Coast - Gonzaga (24-9)

 

PROJECTED SEEDS (RPI):

1 - Ohio State (2), Kansas (1), Duke (4), Pittsburgh (6)

2 - Notre Dame (9), SDSU (3), North Carolina (6), Texas (13)

3 - Connecticut (14), Kentucky (8), Florida (10), Purdue (8)

4 - Syracuse (17), BYU (4), Louisville (21), Wisconsin (14)

5 - Texas A&M (30), UNLV (25), Arizona (15), Vanderbilt (27)

6 - West Virginia (19), Cincinnati (32), Kansas State (18), Temple (29)

7 - Georgetown (12), Washington (39), Xavier (20), St. John's (24)

8 - Old Dominion (24), Missouri (33), UCLA (31), Florida State (45)

9 - Richmond (44), Memphis (39), Utah State (15), Tennessee (37)

10- George Mason (26), Butler (35), Marquette (58), Gonzaga (62)

11- Villanova (36), Clemson (61), Michigan State (51), Michigan (56)

12- Illinois (38), Penn State (55), Virginia Tech (64), USC (70), Colorado (67), St. Mary's (47)

13- Princeton (47), Belmont (52), Oakland (58), Bucknell (81)

14- Morehead State (79), Long Island (77), Indiana State (84), Akron (117)

15- St. Peter's (101), Northern Colorado (112), Wofford (119), Boston U. (135)

16- UNC-Asheville (149), Hampton (165), UCSB (170), Arkansas-LR (201), UT-SA (202), Alabama State (267)

 

OUT: Boston College (44), Georgia (40), Alabama (78), UAB (28), VCU (49), Colorado State (42), California (65), Washington State (76)

Edited March 13, 2011 by Gopher

[Timmypg]

Nice breakdown Gopher.

Edited March 8, 2011 by Timmypg

[Gopher]

A couple of things to add... I do this for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, it generates some discussion, as to which teams should be in or out, which teams are likely to make a run in the tournament, as well as which high seeds might be ripe for an upset. Second, I find it interesting to break down some of the "bubble" teams myself, and compare what I find to what the "experts" find. Sometimes, the results are basically one in the same... Other times, I might disagree slightly. Basically, I really enjoy watching the college basketball season unfold, and digging into the details makes it all that much more fun for me. So, I figure I might as well share my findings with everyone here, since I know there are a bunch of fellow hoops fans on these boards regularly.

 

The other thing that I wanted to mention was what I look for in a bubble team. There are a few key criteria, in my opinion... First, did they play anybody of merit? In other words, an inflated record due to a weak schedule doesn't impress me. Second, who did they beat on a neutral court, or better yet, on the road? Nothing worse than a team that can't win away from home, being expected to make a splash in the tournament, only to end up being a dud. Third, how did they finish the season. Some people believe that it shouldn't have much to do with anything... That the games won in November/December mean just as much as the games won in Jan/Feb. I completely disagree. Choosing the field is all about picking the teams that are most likely to win a game or two, on a neutral court, in March, in my opinion. It doesn't matter what you did in November, but rather, are you likely to be competitive, against like teams, in March.

 

Perfect example is Minnesota this year... Started the season 16-4, and were in the top 15 in the country. Lost their starting PG to injury, and their backup transferred. As a result, they ended the year losing nine of their last ten games. Ugly. No way they can now make the dance, short of winning the Big 10 tourney (and that simply isn't going to happen). But, even if they HAD finished the Big 10 at 9-9 (instead of 6-12), I'm not sure they're the type of team that you want to see in the dance. Can't beat anybody on the road, and struggle to put away mediocre teams at home. Not the recipe of a tournament-worthy team, in my opinion. So, I do think how teams finish the season should play a part in who gets selected. Does it have to be the most important factor? Of course not. But, it should be a factor.

 

Edit: One more thing on Minnesota... They beat North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue (all top-20 teams) early in the season. But, they couldn't beat San Jose State, on the road, right now. Like I said, if you can't win road/neutral games in Feb/March, there's no reason to put your team in the tournament (regardless of what you did three months ago).

Edited March 8, 2011 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Atlantic Coast Conference

 

Despite Duke being ranked higher all year, North Carolina ended up winning the regular season title, which came down to a meeting between the two rivals last Saturday evening. Personally, after having watched both teams several times this year, I think Duke is in trouble, while UNC could be primed for a run in the tourney. On the other hand, Duke has more experience, particularly in the backcourt, so who knows. Actually, in all honesty, I think the best thing that could happen to UNC, at this point, is for them to NOT win the ACC tournament. In other words, if they win both the regular season title and the tournament, there's a chance they might move all the way up to a #1 seed... which would also make them one of the top targets in the tournament, in terms of which teams would be getting a lot of attention, nationally. I don't think that would benefit them, in the sense that they would no longer be able to "sneak" up on anyone. Go into the tournament as a 2-3 seed, and see what happens... I like their chances much better that way. Meanwhile, Duke also may benefit from an early loss in the ACC tourney, but for a different reason. What they seem to need, more than anything else right now, is rest... Their top players are having to give close to 40 minutes per game, and they've struggled lately as a result, in my opinion.

 

So, I've got Duke at a #1, but no worse than a 2-seed. UNC, meanwhile, could fall anywhere between a 3 (if they lose early in the ACC) and a 1 (if they manage to win it, and get some help elsewhere). Florida State is probably deserving of a seed in the 6-8 range. As for the others...

 

Clemson 20-10 (9-7)

Road Record: 3-7

Neutral court: 2-1

RPI - 60

SOS - 75

Last 10 games: 6-4

Best wins (RPI): @College of Charleston (71), swept Miami (72)

Bad Losses: @South Carolina (130), @Virginia (135). Worst home loss is Michigan (56).

Bottom Line: The Tigers don't really have any terrible losses (worst four losses are all on the road, against conference foes, as well as SC). On the other hand, they really have no good wins, either. Best wins, overall, are probably home wins against BC, VTech, and Florida State. In other words, they appear to be one of those middle-of-the-pack teams that takes care of business at home, while not doing much on the road. Exactly the type of team that I'm not in favor of letting into the dance, based on pure record alone. But, with the expansion to 38 at-large teams, it becomes a question of who out there is any better?

 

Virginia Tech 19-10 (9-7)

Road Record: 4-6

Neutral court: 4-1

RPI - 63

SOS - 88

Last 10 games: 6-4

Best wins (RPI): Duke (5), Oklahoma State (66) at neutral site, Florda State (45)

Bad Losses: @Georgia Tech (161), Virginia (135) at home.

Bottom Line: Even though the Hokies don't have any great road/neutral wins, they did fare fairly well away from home, with a combined 8-7 record. More importantly, they managed to beat Duke at home. Sometimes, one signature win is enough to make the difference for a bubble team. Based on that win alone, combined with their ability to compete on the road, I like their chances of making the dance.

 

Boston College 19-11 (9-7)

Road Record: 4-6

Neutral court: 3-1

RPI - 44

SOS - 28

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): Texas A&M (31) at neutral site, swept Virginia Tech (63)

Bad Losses: Lost to Yale (155) at home

Bottom Line: Of these three teams, the Yale home loss is probably the ugliest of the bunch. The advantage that BC has is that they swept the Hokies. They also have clearly the best RPI and SOS of the three.

 

Right now, I would rank them in this order... Boston College, Virginia Tech, and then Clemson. But, I think it's close enough, between the three, that their play in the ACC tourney could make the difference for any of the three. I think at least two get in, and maybe three (if Clemson can win another game or two).

Edited March 10, 2011 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Big Ten

Basically, this conference breaks down into three categories. First, there is Ohio State. Unlike last year, when they were mainly a perimeter-based team, this year's squad has a newfound inside/outside balance. They're still loaded with deadly outside shooters, but they've got a couple of solid post weapons as well, in freshman star Sullinger and veteran center Lauderdale, who has improved with another year under his belt. Depth is still somewhat of a concern, as it was last year, but the seven players who do see regular minutes are all solid contributors. Overall, I like their chances of making a Final Four run, much better than last year... They're no longer a team that relies solely on the three-pointer, which makes them less vulnerable. Sure, they still shoot very well, but they can beat you in other ways as well. They're undoubtedly a #1 seed this year, regardless of what happens this week.

 

The second group is comprised of two teams (Wisconsin and Purdue) who are at least a full tier below OSU. Both are solid top-15 teams, and I see them both having a very good shot at reaching the Sweet 16. The other thing that they both have in common is that their respective coaches have done a very commendable job this year... Matt Painter led the Boilermakers to a 2nd place finish, despite losing star Robbie Hummel for the second season in a row, to a serious knee injury. Meanwhile, Bo Ryan continues to impress at Wisconsin, leading the Badgers once again to outperform the expectations that most experts had for them, prior to the season. I don't think either team is likely to win more than 2-3 games, though, in the tournament, although I wouldn't say it's impossible. I see Purdue as a 2-3, and Wisconsin as a 3-4, although either's seeding could fluctuate depending on their conference tournament performance. Meanwhile, I think OSU is locked into a #1 no matter what happens.

 

The last group all finished 9-9 in conference play. Some started slow, and picked it up down the stretch. Others struggled late in the season, after a solid start. Still others seemingly struggled all season, to put together multiple good wins consecutively. The one thing that they all share in common, besides conference record, is that they're on the bubble:

 

Illinois 19-12 (9-9)

Road Record: 4-7

Neutral court: 1-3

RPI - 39

SOS - 16

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): North Carolina (7), Wisconsin (13), Michigan State (50), Michigan (56). Beat Gonzaga (58) on the road.

Bad Losses: Illinois-Chicago (291) at neutral site, @Indiana (180)

Bottom Line: Very respectable RPI and strength of schedule. Best wins are at home, but the Gonzaga road win is better than many bubble teams have. Meanwhile, as bad as the Ill-Chicago loss looks on paper, it was at a neutral court almost three months ago. Illinois did struggle down the stretch, after being fairly highly regarded early in the season, but I think they get in, given their strong overall RPI and SOS, as well as the wins they did manage against other tournament-level teams. Probably no better than a 8 or 9 seed, I don't see them sliding down much, based on the Big 10 tournament (since they're already slated to face Michigan in the 4-5 game, which could go either way).

 

Michigan 19-12 (9-9)

Road Record: 5-5

Neutral court: 0-2

RPI - 56

SOS - 18

Last 10 games: 7-3

Best wins (RPI): Harvard (35), swept Michigan State (50) and Penn State (55).

Bad Losses: @Indiana (180)

Bottom Line: Like Illinois, their strength of schedule is respectable. The other two things that will help them is that they swept their rival (the Spartans), and finished strong in February and March (won seven of last ten games). Losing to Indiana, as bad as it looks on paper, is still a conference road game, which is never easy for anyone. Beating Harvard probably doesn't excite too many critics, but the bottom line is that the Wolverines won the games that they should have won, and didn't lose many that they could/should have won. They can certainly help their case against Illinois on Friday, but I like their chances either way.

 

Michigan State 17-13 (9-9)

Road Record: 2-8

Neutral court: 2-2

RPI - 50

SOS - 9

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): Wisconsin (13), Illinois (39), Washington (46) and Oakland (52) on neutral courts.

Bad Losses: @Iowa (167), swept by Michigan (56)

Bottom Line: I'm torn on the Spartans, and they will almost certainly be one of the most debated teams, no matter what the outcome, after Selection Sunday takes place. On the one hand, their 17-13 record is probably the worst of any of the bubble teams. They were ranked very high to start the season, and failed miserably to reach those expectations. On the other hand, the fact that their SECOND WORST LOSS is to another bubble team (Michigan) says a lot, in my opinion. In other words, their schedule was about as tough as it gets, and I have a feeling that, if a lot of these other bubble teams played that same schedule, they wouldn't even be in the tournament conversation.

 

Road/neutral losses to Duke, UConn, Syracuse, as well as a home loss to Texas, are just four of the high quality opponents that the Spartans faced this year. They also went 1-4 against the conference's top three (OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin). So, of their 13 losses, eight of them were against top-20 teams, basically. All said and done, I'd be fairly shocked if the Spartans don't get an invite... After all, going back to my number one criteria, does this team have a chance of beating other like teams in the field? I would say that they absolutely do. In fact, even though they had a disappointing season, I'm not sure that there is a more "seasoned" tournament team, outside of the madness that is the Big East. What might help Michigan State, more than anything else at this point, is that they're slated to play Iowa (in the 7-10 game of the Big 11 tournament), on Friday... nothing helps like a free win, when you're the only potential at-large bid in the country with only 17 wins.

 

Penn State 16-13 (9-9)

Road Record: 3-8

Neutral court: 0-0

RPI - 55

SOS - 6

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): Wisconsin (13), Illinois (39), Michigan State (50) at home.

Bad Losses: Maine (223) at home

Bottom Line: As much as Michigan State might benefit, based on their reputation and past years' performances in the tournament, Penn State has very little tournament experience, overall. Even worse, they have one less win on the season than MSU does (only 16). What is completely unfortunate, from their point of view, is that they get the rawest of raw deals, in terms of scheduling... The Big Ten basketball schedule is set up so that each team plays the other nine teams twice each, with two exceptions (playing those two teams just once). Well, you guessed it... Penn State not only had to play the "Big Three" (OSU, Purdue, Wisconsin) twice each, they also only got to play the conference's two WORST teams (Indiana and Iowa) once a piece. If they had Minnesota's schedule, for example (played Illinois and Wisconsin each only once), Penn State likely would have finished with 10 or 11 conference wins, and would be a virtual lock for the dance. Instead, they're very likely out, unless they win multiple games in the conference tournament.

 

Here is how I see the above four teams, as they stand today:

 

Illinois/Michigan - Both probably in, but Michigan has slightly less wiggle room than Illinois.

Michigan State - I think they're in, but if they lose to Iowa on Thursday, I'll be less sure.

Penn State - Probably needs to beat not only Indiana, but also Wisconsin, to get in.

Edited March 10, 2011 by Gopher

[billay]

Of the three ACC bubble teams, Clemson may be the strongest IMO. They had a couple of tight losses that could have pushed them ahead of these other 2. Clemson will play the winner of BC vs. Wake, so two of the bubble teams may meet on Friday. Winner could be in. As for VT, I really can't stand Malcom Delaney. They guy can fill a box score, no doubt, but he's a frontrunner and a head case. Most definately a blessing and a curse for VT and I'm not sure they won't be better off without him next year.

[gilthorp]

Big Ten

Here is how I see the above four teams, as they stand today:

 

Illinois/Michigan - Both probably in, but Michigan has slightly less wiggle room than Illinois.

Michigan State - I think they're in, but if they lose to Iowa on Thursday, I'll be less sure.

Penn State - Probably needs to beat not only Indiana, but also Wisconsin, to get in.

 

I don't think Michigan State makes it, and I don't think Penn State makes it. I think Michigan and Illinois are in regardless.

[darin3]

Ohio St. looks really, really tough right now.

[Gopher]

I don't think Michigan State makes it, and I don't think Penn State makes it. I think Michigan and Illinois are in regardless.

Agreed on all accounts, except I think MSU has a pretty good shot at getting in. All along, I've felt that, as long as they can stay at .500 or better in conference play (which they did), they would make it into the field of 68. If nothing else, right or wrong, reputation alone may get them in. Plus, like I said, I'm not sure that there is another bubble team that would have done any better with their schedule. As long as they beat Iowa on Thursday, and get to 18 wins, I think they sneak in as an 11-seed, give or take one.

 

Michigan and Illinois are both just fortunate to play each other on Friday... It's not a bad loss for whoever loses, and the winner benefits with another win to bolster their resume.

 

Penn State, as previously mentioned, was the recipient of the worst-case scenario, in terms of schedules.

[Gopher]

Of the three ACC bubble teams, Clemson may be the strongest IMO. They had a couple of tight losses that could have pushed them ahead of these other 2. Clemson will play the winner of BC vs. Wake, so two of the bubble teams may meet on Friday. Winner could be in. As for VT, I really can't stand Malcom Delaney. They guy can fill a box score, no doubt, but he's a frontrunner and a head case. Most definately a blessing and a curse for VT and I'm not sure they won't be better off without him next year.

Admittedly, I saw very little of Clemson this year, so I can only comment on what I see on paper (no eye test). Their "best" wins are not very impressive. Sure, they won home games against the two other bubble teams, as well as Florida State, but what did they do away from home? Best wins are against teams that aren't even in the tournament conversation. Of course, the same can be said for VTech, whose good wins (Duke and FSU) were also both at home. Meanwhile, BC beat Texas A&M away from home, which is probably the best non-home win for any of the three teams. BC also swept VTech... The more I look at it, the more I think BC is the best of the three, with the other two fairly close, yet BC also has what is probably the worst loss of the three. We could talk in circles about these three all night, it seems.

[billay]

Admittedly, I saw very little of Clemson this year, so I can only comment on what I see on paper (no eye test). Their "best" wins are not very impressive. Sure, they won home games against the two other bubble teams, as well as Florida State, but what did they do away from home? Best wins are against teams that aren't even in the tournament conversation. Of course, the same can be said for VTech, whose good wins (Duke and FSU) were also both at home. Meanwhile, BC beat Texas A&M away from home, which is probably the best non-home win for any of the three teams. BC also swept VTech... The more I look at it, the more I think BC is the best of the three, with the other two fairly close, yet BC also has what is probably the worst loss of the three. We could talk in circles about these three all night, it seems.

Not only did the ACC have a notable lack of marquee out-of-conference wins this year, they didn't play a notable number of marquee out-of conference games, which is disappointing. Combine this with the fact that the league did not have its usual 2 powerhouses beefing up the rest of the league's SOS (as UNC spent a good chunk of the season unranked), those ACC teams that scheduled no quality OOC opponents have really weak resumes now.

 

As for Clemson, they had at least 3 close losses(ODU, UMD, UVA) that had they gone the other way, they are sitting at 23-7 and 11-5 in conference and are probably sitting pretty. I think they and BC are playing better of late, but BC's losses to Harvard and Yale make them a little suspect for purposes of the tourney.

[Gopher]

Not only did the ACC have a notable lack of marquee out-of-conference wins this year, they didn't play a notable number of marquee out-of conference games, which is disappointing. Combine this with the fact that the league did not have its usual 2 powerhouses beefing up the rest of the league's SOS (as UNC spent a good chunk of the season unranked), those ACC teams that scheduled no quality OOC opponents have really weak resumes now.

 

As for Clemson, they had at least 3 close losses(ODU, UMD, UVA) that had they gone the other way, they are sitting at 23-7 and 11-5 in conference and are probably sitting pretty. I think they and BC are playing better of late, but BC's losses to Harvard and Yale make them a little suspect for purposes of the tourney.

All excellent points. As for BC, the Yale loss is the one that really sticks out like a sore thumb (Harvard has a good shot at winning the Ivy League). But, I've always felt that good wins should mean more than bad losses... As I said earlier, selecting the at-large teams (in my opinion) should be about picking the 38 teams that are most capable of winning a game or two in the tournament. Every team is capable of losing to a weak team... That shouldn't even be up for debate, really. Who is playing well, who has the pieces necessary to beat another tournament-caliber team, etc.... Those are the things that I'm looking for, when I assess these bubble teams. In other words, if you haven't beaten anyone of merit away from home, you really haven't proven a whole lot of anything, in my opinion. Anybody can win home games. Winning road/neutral games are what differentiates between a team that can win a game or two in the tournament, and a team that is likely to be ousted in the first two days.

 

Since none of the three teams really beat anybody away from home, though, you have to "peel back" another layer, and start looking at other criteria. So, Clemson's close losses, as well as their record against VTech and BC, might be enough to get them in. Meanwhile, BC probably has the best win away from home, of the three, and VTech beat Duke. Now, you've got me thinking that VTech is the weakest of the three resumes... I think I change my mind every time I look at these teams.

 

When it's all said and done, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see six ACC teams in the dance, just because of the fact that the field has been expanded, and the bubble is fairly weak this year, overall.

[billay]

Here's a theoretical question: If you are a bubble team, is it an advantage to miss out on any early byes in your conference tournament, on the theory that not winning a bye gives you an opportunity at an extra win (presumably over a weak opponent) to pad your resume?

 

Case in point: the three ACC teams we have been discussing. BC and VT are playing in the first round of the ACC Tournament, while Clemson got a bye when it won the 4 seed over BC and VT (all 3 tied at 9-7). BC and VT will have an opportunity to notch another win in their record while Clemson rests. Assuming BC wins on Thursday, if faces Clemson on Friday. I

[Gopher]

Yes, I think the conference tournament standings/seedings play an enormous role in how much teams can bolster their resume, at the last minute. Example in the Big Ten... Minnesota is playing in the 8/9 game. Even if they win that game, they would then play Ohio State in the next round... a game that I see them having ZERO chance of winning. If they were the 10-seed, however, I could (at least, I could, if their PG was healthy) see them knocking off the 7-seed, and then possibly having a shot against the 2-seed. So, by getting a slightly better seed, their chances of winning multiple games in this tournament decrease greatly.

 

Of course, given that Minnesota is 6-12 in conference (after starting 5-3), they have no shot at the tournament, anyway, unless they win the Big 10 (which simply isn't going to happen without a point guard). But, for argument's sake, if they were 8-10 or 9-9 in conference, for example, they'd be better off in the six slot this year than the 4 or 5 spot... It's just one more round before you potentially have to face OSU (who is head and shoulders above everyone else in the conference).

 

Another example, like I mentioned earlier, is Michigan-MSU-Illinois. Michigan and Illinois can't really hurt themselves, because they play each other on Friday. Loser doesn't lose much, and the winner moves on to face OSU. Meanwhile, Michigan State faces Iowa, I believe, tomorrow... It's basically a freebie for them to add a win to their total (which is currently only 17). Michigan State would then face Purdue, then Wisconsin/Penn State winner... So, potentially, Michigan State could pick up three wins before facing OSU, while Illinois and Michigan can only get one.

 

Personally, as fun as this week is to watch, I think the conference tournaments are overkill (and are obviously about one thing... MONEY). After all, you play pretty much everybody in your conference, and most teams twice. If that doesn't determine who is the best team (and deserving of an automatic bid), I'm not sure what does. Which should weigh more... A 3-month conference schedule, or a 3-day tournament? Because of money, most conferences (except the Ivy League) now have it backwards. What would make more sense (if money wasn't factor #1 by a mile) would be to throw out all conference tournaments, and have every conference play a balanced schedule, whatever that might be.

 

In the Big Ten, for example, you would play everybody twice (20 games). In the ACC, same thing. The Big East (and other conferences with 16+ teams) might have to get creative... Maybe split into two divisions, play your division twice, and the others once (total of 22 games), then have the two division winners face off in a conference title game (similar to SEC or Big 12 football). If this were to happen (which it won't, obviously), you would have less surprise teams getting automatic bids. Bad for March "madness", in terms of watching the craziness happen (like watching a team with a losing record win their conference tournament), but good for the overall quality of play in the Big Dance itself... there would be less quality teams getting left out, and less suspect teams getting in because they got hot for a 3-4 day period.

[Kid Cid]

The Big East Tournament may be the best thing (competition wise) going in college basketball today. Georgetown and UCONN just played the 8-9 game today as two top 25 ranked teams. I doubt that you will see a bracket in the NCAA Tourney that features this many good teams. That being said, I think that it also make take some of the starch out of the teams that play 3 or 4 games before they get to the NCAA. Think about this. Even PItt, the number 1 seed, would have to play three top 25 teams to win the tournament.

Edited March 9, 2011 by Kid Cid

[Gopher]

The Big East Tournament may be the best thing (competition wise) going in college basketball today. Georgetown and UCONN just played the 8-9 game today as two top 25 ranked teams. I doubt that you will see a bracket in the NCAA Tourney that features this many good teams. That being said, I think that it also make take some of the starch out of the teams that play 3 or 4 games before they get to the NCAA. Think about this. Even PItt, the number 1 seed, would have to play three top 25 teams to win the tournament.

Don't get me wrong... The conference tournaments (Big East in particular) are VERY exciting to watch. It's not the quality of play that I have a problem with. They just happen to be very unnecessary, in the whole scheme of things. In other words, like I said, they just spent 3 months figuring out who is the best team in the conference, but now they're going to give the automatic seed not to the team that was the best during those three months, but rather the team who wins a 4-day tournament? Doesn't make any sense, other than it generates huge revenue, which is the only reason that they do it.

 

I can understand the smaller conferences having a tournament, to some degree... The conferences that get one bid on a yearly basis consider winning their tournament to be more important than winning an NCAA tournament game, in many cases. Getting there means more than winning once they get there. On the other hand, if I'm a 25-win team in a small conference, but I somehow don't win my conference tournament, I'm pretty upset if the conference's one and only invite just went to a sub-par team. But, in the major conferences, where 5-7 teams are getting in, it just seems to be overkill, in my opinion. There are very few situations where winning the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, etc. actually gets somebody a bid... Usually, it does nothing more than maybe bump your seeding up a spot or two.

[Gopher]

Atlantic 10

 

Although not as highly ranked as they have been in some previous seasons, Xavier and Temple are both in... probably somewhere in the 6-8 seed range, depending on how they fare in the A-10 tourney. Richmond, meanwhile, could help themselves by at least beating Rhode Island on Friday night.

 

Richmond 24-7 (13-3)

Road Record: 10-3

Neutral court: 2-1

RPI - 58

SOS - 141

Last 10 games: 8-2

Best wins (RPI): Purdue (8) on neutral court, VCU (49) at home

Bad Losses: Georgia Tech (163) on neutral court

Bottom Line: Strength of schedule, overall, is pretty weak. What I like about the Spiders, though, is that they went 10-3 on the road this year, and 2-1 at neutral sites... A combined 12-4 away from home (while only slightly better, 12-3, at home). To me, that's the sign of a team that is tournament-worthy... They can win anywhere. That, along with the very nice win over Purdue, might be enough to get them in. Still, it wouldn't hurt if they beat Rhode Island on Friday.

[Gopher]

Big East

 

With Marquette's win over West Virginia tonight, you can mark it down... The Big East will get ELEVEN teams into the Big Dance this year. But, just in case you don't believe me, let's look at Marquette, as well as two other teams (Nova and G-town) who have struggled down the stretch... In fact, these are the three tournament-bound teams that did not advance to the 3rd round of the Big East tournament:

 

Georgetown 21-10 (10-8)

Road Record: 7-5

Neutral court: 4-0

RPI - 11

SOS - 1

Last 10 games: 6-4 (but lost four of last five)

Best wins (RPI): Utah State (17), Louisville (21), St. John's (23), and Marquette (63) at home, and Syracuse (18), ODU (22), Missouri (33), Villanova (36), and Memphis (38) away/neutral. Also beat tournament teams Wofford and UNC-Asheville at a neutral site.

Bad Losses: Swept by Cincinnati (32)

Bottom Line: Toughest schedule in the country, and a bunch of good wins (including several away from home). When your "worst" loss is to a team with an RPI of 32, and you played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation, you know you've got nothing to worry about on Selection Sunday.

 

Villanova 21-11 (9-9)

Road Record: 7-6

Neutral court: 0-1

RPI - 36

SOS - 25

Last 10 games: 3-7

Best wins (RPI): @Syracuse (18), and WV (16), Louisville (21), Temple (29), UCLA (31), Cincinnati (32), and Marquette (63) at home.

Bad Losses: South Florida (150) on a neutral court, @ Providence (151)

Bottom Line: Other than Syracuse, Nova didn't beat any great teams on the road. On the other hand, they pretty much held serve against most of the conference foes that they should have, at home. Worst losses are on the road, against conference opponents. The one thing the Wildcats have going against them is that they played terrible down the stretch, losing their last five games. No team has ever received an invitation to the tournament, after losing their final five games. Probably the weakest of the three teams (at least in terms of how they're playing right now), after the events in the last 48 hours, but Nova is still in... probably as a 9-10 seed.

 

Marquette 20-13 (9-9)

Road Record: 4-7

Neutral court: 1-2

RPI - 63

SOS - 34

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): Notre Dame (9), West Virginia (16), Syracuse (18), @UConn (25)

Bad Losses: @Seton Hall (97)

Bottom Line: Other than Seton Hall, which was a conference road loss (nothing to be too ashamed of), all of Marquette's losses are against tournament teams (next worse loss was Gonzaga). I think they were probably in as a 10 or 11 seed, prior to beating West Virginia tonight. With that win, they're even more of a sure thing, and could slide up into an 8-9 game if they can knock off Big East 3-seed Louisville tomorrow.

[Gopher]

Big 12

 

With their win today, Missouri is at 23 wins... They're definitely in. That leaves one question mark in the Big 12....

 

Colorado 20-12 (8-8)

Road Record: 3-9

Neutral court: 1-1

RPI - 76

SOS - 73

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): Texas (14), swept Kansas State (19), Missouri (33)

Bad Losses: @San Francisco (123), @Iowa State (133), @Oklahoma (135)

Bottom Line: RPI and SOS is nothing special, but they did beat Texas, as well as KSU twice. Their "bad" losses are road games against conference opponents, which means they're not terrible, necessarily. I think they're right on the bubble, and could go either way. If they can manage to beat KSU for a third time on Thursday, however, it would make it very difficult for the committee to leave them out.

[Gopher]

Colonial Athletic

 

Old Dominion is officially in. George Mason is in as well. That leaves the team that ODU beat in the title game, Virginia Commonwealth.

 

VCU 23-11 (12-6)

Road Record: 8-7

Neutral court: 3-1

RPI - 49

SOS - 84

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): @ODU (22), George Mason (27), UCLA (31)

Bad Losses: Road games at Georgia State (221), Northeastern (178), and South Florida (150

Bottom Line: Basically, I think that the only way the Colonial would have gotten three teams is if VCU would have knocked off ODU in the conference tournament final. They simply didn't do enough, out of conference, to justify a bid. The UCLA win was nice, but losing to Georgia State is almost inexcusable. I'm afraid the Rams are headed to the NIT, most likely.

[Gopher]

Conference USA

 

Alabama-Birmingham is in the tournament, whether they win the conference tourney or not. There are two other teams that have somewhat respectable resumes:

 

Memphis 22-9 (10-6)

Road Record: 4-6

Neutral court: 1-1

RPI - 38

SOS - 56

Last 10 games: 6-4

Best wins (RPI): Swept UAB (28) and won at Gonzaga (57)

Bad Losses: @SMU (201), @Rice (190)

Bottom Line: Probably unlikely that the Tigers make the tournament, but not impossible. If they can beat Southern Mississippi on Thursday, it would set up a third matchup with conference best UAB... A third victory over the best team in the conference would go a long way in convincing people that Memphis belongs in the field.

 

UTEP 23-8 (11-5)

Road Record: 5-5

Neutral court: 1-1

RPI - 61

SOS - 118

Last 10 games: 6-4

Best wins (RPI): Memphis (38), Michigan (56) on a neutral court

Bad Losses: Pacific (182) at home, Georgia Tech (163) on neutral court

Bottom Line: The Miners didn't play a tough enough schedule to make it, more than likely, considering their only two quality wins are against bubble teams as well. I think they have even less of a chance than Memphis does.

[Gopher]

Horizon League

 

Butler is in again, and they're probably alone. But, Cleveland State's 26 wins is at least worth taking a second look....

 

Cleveland State 26-8 (13-5)

Road Record: 9-5

Neutral court: 1-1

RPI - 43

SOS - 108

Last 10 games: 5-5

Best wins (RPI): Home wins against Valpo (67) and Iona (68)

Bad Losses: @Detroit (143)

Bottom Line: Cleveland State beat the teams they should have beat, with really no terrible losses. Unfortunately for them, though, they also didn't beat anybody who will likely make the NCAA tournament field. They are therefore very likely out.

Edited March 10, 2011 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Finish the rest tomorrow....

[Scooby's Hubby]

the expansion of the tourny is still confusing me ... the tourny starts on tuesday with 68? and then will be down to 64 on Thurs? and all will be back normal? as a commissioner for a bracket league, am I to ask for all the brackets by Monday? or can we just wait til thursday for the 64 team bracket?

[billay]

I'm just not sure that Nova deserves a bid after bowing out so early, and playing so poorly of late.