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Bronco Billy

What I;m seeing in IDP drafts so far

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With all the hoopla of this heralded class of DLs, especially at a time when quality FF DLs are in a definite shortage, after following a number of IDP drafts I'm seeing D players dropping way down boards from past drafts.

 

I think there are a few reasons:

 

1) FF owners traditionally are resistant to picking up DEs and DTs early. It's a mindset as everyone tries to latch onto the sexier O skill players and the LBs. If we've seen anything, it's that quality FF DEs have more value than many other positions, and a lot of full IDP leagues have a start 2 DE requirement.

 

2) The D players that usually get the runs flowing - the LBs - are a much weaker and shallower class than is past years. Von Miller is the only bonafide stud LB coming out and he's going into a situation where FFers are very leery - the dreaded SLB/WLB indecision conundrum, with it very likely that he'll end up at SLB. There's also an issue of FFers having no idea where the job openings are because of the lack of an NFL FA period. Is Ruud leaving a hole in TB's MLB spot for Mason Foster to fill or not?

 

3) The Ss are incredibly weak this year, especially SSs. We may end up seeing a rise in their value in the next couple of years if we get a mediocre or worse class in at least one of the next two years, much like DEs right now.

 

4) The O players are really intriguing and there is potential oozing all over the place. Other than WRs Green & Jones, and RBs Ingram, Thomas, and Williams, there are guys up and down the board on O - most especially the QBs, where FFers are seeing a distinct need of a refreshment in starting quality guys - who have a lot of potential that really shines so much that FFers are very willing to overlook the holes in their games. This especially goes for the QB class, where they are going way too early given the unknowns in the top 6 guys. This is an execptionally deep class for RBs and WRs who may or may not have what it takes to contribute to FF starting lineups. It's kind of interesting that this TE class has just as many issues as the QB class, but FFers seem to be willing to let them drop like rocks despite the value of quality TEs in FF.

 

My conclusions:

 

Unless you have a 1.05 pick or better, be prepared to watch the QBs jump off the boards in the first 2 rounds and watch that you don't get caught in the feeding frenzy. I see at least 3 of the top 6 QBs in this class being pedestrian to bust level FF players, and maybe as many as 5 of them. The same holds true for the RB/WR position, but not quite to the extent of QBs. QBs don't get 10 to 12 snaps a game if they can't win a starting spot, whereas RBs and WRs can still help FF teams even if they don't start for their teams.

 

Be prepared to jump into the LB/TE/DE fray when the guy you have that gut feeling for comes up in the position where you are comfortable drafting him. There will be teams with holes to fill in their starting front 7 D or TE slots, and there are guys in this draft who can fill them. Don't get caught up in the QB/RB/WR runs in the 2nd or 3rd rounds so that you bypass a LB2 or a DE1 to be able to snag the 14th RB or the 12th WR coming off the board. There are gems sitting up there in the TE/LB/DE spots who will make your team immediately better, but it may take a little channeling/courage to figure where these guys figure in their future teams' plans. But make no mistake - there's guys in these positions who will help your team and they will fall into your lap this year. Be bold and seize the opportunity.

 

Hold off on Ss and CBs. You aren't going to get much out of these guys in this draft unless you wait until th 4th round or later in your draft. There just isn't the talent there this year, and almost everyone if not everyone in your league is going to let them drop also.

 

Be prepared to trade down. I've seen lots of value coming from owners bold enough to give up 1st/upper 2nd round picks and amass picks in the late 2nd/3rd, and there's lots of owners wanting to trade up to draft that future hopeful stud RB/WR coming off the boards in the latter half of the first through the end of the 2nd round. It's almost like watching a temporary mental illness take place in your fellow owners.

 

And did I mention lay off the QBs unless the last one or two drop unexpectedly? It's like watching 5 drunks compete for the same bottle of Ol' Grandad. :shudder:

Edited by Bronco Billy

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Great post BB, very helpful and informative!

 

You weren't supposed to read that...

 

:wacko:

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No really, it was great

 

Also if you could go ahead and rank the players you are planning on drafting from 1-225 and post it, that would also be helpful for ATAP :wacko:

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No really, it was great

 

Also if you could go ahead and rank the players you are planning on drafting from 1-225 and post it, that would also be helpful for ATAP :wacko:

+1

:tup:

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Fantastic post by BB and you'll see much of that reflected in the LB, DL and DB writeups we will have up (I think LB is already up) on the main page. Weird draft this year for sure.

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I think the 3-4 defense has turned a great NFL D-line class into a meh fantasy class.

 

Particularly many top guys that could be great pass rushing 4-3 DE prospects are being asked to change positions as OLB in a 3-4... an unreliable, boom/bust fantasy position.

 

To lesser extent, some guys that could cause havoc as pocket pushing DT's will be playing 5 tech in the 3-4, basically a worthless position fantasy-wise.

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I think the 3-4 defense has turned a great NFL D-line class into a meh fantasy class.

 

Particularly many top guys that could be great pass rushing 4-3 DE prospects are being asked to change positions as OLB in a 3-4... an unreliable, boom/bust fantasy position.

 

To lesser extent, some guys that could cause havoc as pocket pushing DT's will be playing 5 tech in the 3-4, basically a worthless position fantasy-wise.

It's been happening for a couple/few years now...

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It's been happening for a couple/few years now...

 

Yep, and it's exctly what has added so much value to the top DEs. FFers are just starting to realize it and the good FFers are doing what they need to to lock down DE1s.

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Yep, and it's exctly what has added so much value to the top DEs. FFers are just starting to realize it and the good FFers are doing what they need to to lock down DE1s.

 

 

Like Peppers :wacko:

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That's a bold move.

that isn't what I would call it.

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that isn't what I would call it.

 

I couldn't get past snakebite's team page :wacko:

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Guess I got great value for him at 1.12 in ATAP :tup::wacko:

IMO,

 

Look I am learning, gonna keep my opinion to myself :lol:

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IMO,

 

Look I am learning, gonna keep my opinion to myself :tup:

In a class bereft of potential stars (minus perhaps a couple or few), I kind of like the Titans' reach and therefore kind of like the reaching for Locker in some cases. First overall? That's straight-up goofy, but hey, towards the tail end of the first or in the first part of the second, why not? I think Locker has a better chance of being a dual-threat QB than that dolt Cam Newton does. :wacko:

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In a class bereft of potential stars (minus perhaps a couple or few), I kind of like the Titans' reach and therefore kind of like the reaching for Locker in some cases. First overall? That's straight-up goofy, but hey, towards the tail end of the first or in the first part of the second, why not? I think Locker has a better chance of being a dual-threat QB than that dolt Cam Newton does. :wacko:

what does Locker have to do with Von Miller :tup:

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what does Locker have to do with Von Miller :wacko:

mixed up my leagues... :tup:

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that isn't what I would call it.

 

How do you not trade down on that, or take him with the pick he had later in Round 1?

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How do you not trade down on that, or take him with the pick he had later in Round 1?

 

 

he traded into the later pick after the fact and he thought Miller would have been gone by 1.06 :wacko:

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he traded into the later pick after the fact and he thought Miller would have been gone by 1.06 :wacko:

We all know that taking Miller at 1.1 was a massive risk, but how good does he have to be for it to pay off? Or to not be a busted pick? I've read that he's going to be on the strongside and could even play DE on nickel and dime situations, so I know Pat Willis numbers are not realistic, but does he have to put up those type of numbers for it to not be viewed as a waste?

 

I'm not even sure that made sense. It's late. Then again, it's not as if all of my posts are coherant anyways.

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We all know that taking Miller at 1.1 was a massive risk, but how good does he have to be for it to pay off? Or to not be a busted pick? I've read that he's going to be on the strongside and could even play DE on nickel and dime situations, so I know Pat Willis numbers are not realistic, but does he have to put up those type of numbers for it to not be viewed as a waste?

 

I'm not even sure that made sense. It's late. Then again, it's not as if all of my posts are coherant anyways.

I thought you weren't supposed to go and get all goofy at the dentist until later in the week? :wacko:

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