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Bronco Billy

What I;m seeing in IDP drafts so far

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I thought you weren't supposed to go and get all goofy at the dentist until later in the week? :tup:

:wacko: Going to the dentist because of the sigline with PON's prior account?

 

Plaque is a figment of the liberal media and the dental industry to scare you into buying useless appliances and pastes. Now I've read the arguments on both sides and I haven't found any evidence yet to support the need to brush your teeth...ever.

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All I know is I benefited from that pick because Jones fell to me at 1.4. :wacko:

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I took a shot on Ayers at 2.03 in a 16 team dynasty league, now I hope Tulloch signs elsewhere and he can move into a startingh spot. Any opinions on Ayers and his situation?

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I took a shot on Ayers at 2.03 in a 16 team dynasty league, now I hope Tulloch signs elsewhere and he can move into a startingh spot. Any opinions on Ayers and his situation?

 

 

From what I had read he's slotted outside in Bullocks old spot. MLB seems up for grabs between Tulloch, Curran and the other new guy

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1) FF owners traditionally are resistant to picking up DEs and DTs early. It's a mindset as everyone tries to latch onto the sexier O skill players and the LBs. If we've seen anything, it's that quality FF DEs have more value than many other positions, and a lot of full IDP leagues have a start 2 DE requirement.

BB - I gotta disagree with you on a couple counts here. For me it's not about sexier picks, it's about smarter picks.

 

First off, scoring system matters here. If the owner has done their LAG, and 20th DL doesn't score much less than the 5th, and if overall the position is the lowest scoring, then the value is not there.

 

Second, imho, predicting successful DL's is a much bigger crapshoot than other positions, as it tends to be in real life NFL scouting. I think it's more effective to spend on proven DL FA's than draft guys that may sit on your bench for 4 years, waiting to break out. And if they do, it's not that big a contribution.

 

And finally... yes... Von Miller went 1.01 in our league. And another owner is on record saying they would have taken him at 1.06. Which frankly, makes them both nuts. :wacko:

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BB - I gotta disagree with you on a couple counts here. For me it's not about sexier picks, it's about smarter picks.

 

First off, scoring system matters here. If the owner has done their LAG, and 20th DL doesn't score much less than the 5th, and if overall the position is the lowest scoring, then the value is not there.

 

Second, imho, predicting successful DL's is a much bigger crapshoot than other positions, as it tends to be in real life NFL scouting. I think it's more effective to spend on proven DL FA's than draft guys that may sit on your bench for 4 years, waiting to break out. And if they do, it's not that big a contribution.

 

And finally... yes... Von Miller went 1.01 in our league. And another owner is on record saying they would have taken him at 1.06. Which frankly, makes them both nuts. :wacko:

 

I'm glad you brought up value. I look at leagues like ATAP and I see where when starting 1 QB and 2 DEs that giving a worst-starter baseline that the difference between the top QB and the worst starting QB last year was 78 pts, whereas the difference between the top DE and the worst starting DE was 107 pts. That actually means DEs have greater value than QBs - and you have to start 2 of them. If makes getting top DEs even more of a priority since their scoring drops off so much after the 12, give or take a DE.

 

Even in a league like TOCOL where D doesn't score quite as much in comparison to O, the value of QBs is higher, but because of the requirement to start 2 DEs vs 1 QB, having two weak DEs (and by weak, I mean having 2 DEs scoring between DE14 and DE 24, not outside the range of starting DEs) more than outbalances the scoring premium of having the top QB.

 

And what you are saying about how capricious locating the top DEs is only emphasizes how important it is to be able to find and roster those top DEs.

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I'm glad you brought up value. I look at leagues like ATAP and I see where when starting 1 QB and 2 DEs that giving a worst-starter baseline that the difference between the top QB and the worst starting QB last year was 78 pts, whereas the difference between the top DE and the worst starting DE was 107 pts. That actually means DEs have greater value than QBs - and you have to start 2 of them. If makes getting top DEs even more of a priority since their scoring drops off so much after the 12, give or take a DE.

 

Even in a league like TOCOL where D doesn't score quite as much in comparison to O, the value of QBs is higher, but because of the requirement to start 2 DEs vs 1 QB, having two weak DEs (and by weak, I mean having 2 DEs scoring between DE14 and DE 24, not outside the range of starting DEs) more than outbalances the scoring premium of having the top QB.

 

And what you are saying about how capricious locating the top DEs is only emphasizes how important it is to be able to find and roster those top DEs.

The context and relationship to other aspects of dynasty IDP is important here. Your original statement was regarding why folks don't take a DE in a dynasty IDP draft at a higher spot and that people feel that the other positions are "sexier". I believe the risk of not hitting on a successful DL, the extra time it can take for them to develop and contribute, and the overall value against other positions when you factor in FA, makes it smarter to look for DE in free agency than in a draft.

 

In my experience, a top 5 player at almost any other position (except DB and PK typically) will cost much more in free agency than a top 5 DL, no matter how many you start. Whether that's people basing their value on being a "sexier" pick or not is irrelevant. It still makes it more important to find those more expensive guys in the draft. Depending on how your league handles RFA and FA I guess.

 

This is speculation on my part, but when you factor in all the newer 3-4 defenses, the pool is reduced even further and the chances of finding a quality 4-3 DE becomes extremely tough. If that makes someone take them higher... then they can have them. I'll wait and find a proven guy and let another owner deal with the agonizing development/failure part.

 

This was a big year for D-Linemen, and how many of them would you have drafted high? I had 6 guys on my list that I considered draftable, period. And I didn't take any of them.

 

Anyway, this is my philosophy and there may be scientific arguments against it, so be it. With the amount of guys in my leagues that have posted in this thread, I should probably just keep my mouth shut. :wacko:

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Anyway, this is my philosophy and there may be scientific arguments against it, so be it.

 

Keep it coming! Good discussion going on here.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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From what I had read he's slotted outside in Bullocks old spot. MLB seems up for grabs between Tulloch, Curran and the other new guy

Yeah that "other new guy" is Colin McCarthy and likely has the inside edge if Tulloch bolts, which looks like a distinct possibility .

Edited by darin3

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Keep it coming! Good discussion going on here.

Agreed. I'm all lathered up after the first rookie draft of the season. That and this interminable labor mess...

 

How about: I just picked up Justin Houston in the 8th and final round of a draft. Didn't get to watch him at UGA, but the more I read now that I've drafted him, the more I think he has a chance to be a star. He's pegged as an OLB in a 3-4, but across from the likely double-teamed Tamba Hali. I know I've seen him mocked in the 1st round on occasion, sounds like off the field issues and inconsistent effort on the field. But to get him in the last round? Anyone got a first hand opinion on him?

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Agreed. I'm all lathered up after the first rookie draft of the season. That and this interminable labor mess...

 

How about: I just picked up Justin Houston in the 8th and final round of a draft. Didn't get to watch him at UGA, but the more I read now that I've drafted him, the more I think he has a chance to be a star. He's pegged as an OLB in a 3-4, but across from the likely double-teamed Tamba Hali. I know I've seen him mocked in the 1st round on occasion, sounds like off the field issues and inconsistent effort on the field. But to get him in the last round? Anyone got a first hand opinion on him?

 

He's probably the 3rd most athletically talented LB in this draft behind Miller and Carter. Has size, strength, agility, and good speed for a guy his size. His problem is his effort level. He just doesn't work as hard as he should. When he really wants to play he's very tough to deal with. When he's just there and not into the game he gets washed out of plays easily and doesn't tackle worth a damn - QBs shrug him off. He also has some character issues.

 

So the real question with Houston is whether he is just one of those kids who wasn't into college and was ready to move to the pros, or is he a guy who will just play because he's getting a paycheck? If it's the former, you absolutely stole a very good player. If it's the latter he'll have a completely mediocre career, constantly frustrate coaches, and probably end up wasting some substantial talent.

 

He was well worth the flyer in the last round and probably should have gone well earlier - there are probably 5 or 6 LBs in your draft who are nothing but depth/ST players who went before him, whereas Houston has a legit shot at being a FF factor.

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The context and relationship to other aspects of dynasty IDP is important here. Your original statement was regarding why folks don't take a DE in a dynasty IDP draft at a higher spot and that people feel that the other positions are "sexier".

 

In my experience, a top 5 player at almost any other position (except DB and PK typically) will cost much more in free agency than a top 5 DL, no matter how many you start. Whether that's people basing their value on being a "sexier" pick or not is irrelevant. It still makes it more important to find those more expensive guys in the draft. Depending on how your league handles RFA and FA I guess.

 

Anyway, this is my philosophy and there may be scientific arguments against it, so be it. With the amount of guys in my leagues that have posted in this thread, I should probably just keep my mouth shut. :wacko:

 

I think some of the above is very important, perception of value, is almost as important as real value when targeting players in drafts and via Free Agency. I think you do pay a premium for the "sexier" positions because of the perceived value others might often place on those.

 

That's obviously very difficult to gauge, and is situational depending on the sophistication/experience of the other folks in your league(s)

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I think some of the above is very important, perception of value, is almost as important as real value when targeting players in drafts and via Free Agency. I think you do pay a premium for the "sexier" positions because of the perceived value others might often place on those.

 

That's obviously very difficult to gauge, and is situational depending on the sophistication/experience of the other folks in your league(s)

I don't even think it's as much about perception of value as it is about value based on what people know. I think you're more likely to find a good, up and coming sort of DE for a good price because most people just aren't totally plugged in to who has great potential for fantasy numbers. That and there just isn't as much info out there for the grunt, in the trench, guys. People don't know what they have with Justin Smith as often as they do with Peyton Manning.

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