theeohiostate Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't see how getting him in the 8th or 9th round is so over valued Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delfamdelfam Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't see how getting him in the 8th or 9th round is so over valued because he's going to go in the 6th round most likely after yesterday's game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some of you need to hit pause for just a minute;Â As they were talking about on the Colin Cowherd show today, Shanahan is basically trying to win preseason games while he decides which one of these slug QBs can best run his offense. His approach to the preseason has been different than his opponents. Few teams are showing their hands in the preseason but the 'Skins definitely are. I have always thought Hightower was a decent player but the hype produced by these preseason games is unseemly. I say we'll see a decidedly different looking product during the regular season when DC's bring the heat. Hightower's value is way too high right now in redrafts. I respectfully disagree. Shanny has been eyeing Hightower for some time and it appears that Hightower found a coach who believes in him and a system that he can excel in. It's pre-season I know and while I agree some positions aren't worth following (WR for one), there have been RBs who have hinted at success during the pre-season. Most recently was Arian Foster last year. Â There are several reasons I'm so high on Hightower and one is because I've owned him the last 2 years and I've seen what he is capable of on a team that didn't give him their full endorsement. He had some quality starts for ARI, I just think for whatever reason, Whisenhunt didn't see the potential that Shanny has seen. This happens in the NFL - see P. Holmes, C. Benson for recentish examples (I'm probably missing some). Another reason to be optimistic is that Timmy H is still a young guy - just turned 25 in May. Hightower has averaged 4.5 ypc in his last 2 seasons and is now entering his prime in a system that has proven successful for RBs - Arian Foster runs in the same system and came from more obscure history. Â You can't win fantasy leagues by following ADP exclusively. Like usual, I will be loading up on WRs in the first 2-3 rounds and then looking for value in Hightower and DeAngelo later in the draft. My only challenge now is trying to predict what round I can guarantee both of these guys will end up on my roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 He's not that talented, and that offense is putrid. No more than a bye-week filler at best, completely wasted pick is probably more like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 He's not that talented, and that offense is putrid. No more than a bye-week filler at best, completely wasted pick is probably more like it. I hope everyone in my remaining leagues feesl this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 He's some info on Shanahan and how he distributed carries to his RBs 2003-2008.... Â 2003--Clinton Portis-290 carries Quentin Griffin-94 carries Mike Anderson-70 carries Jake Plummer-37 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 59% (290/491 carries) 2004--Reuben Droughns-275 carries Quentin Griffin-85 carries Tatum Bell-75 carries Jake Plummer-62 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 55% (275/497 carries) 2005--Mike Anderson-239 carries Tatum Bell-173 carries Ron Dayne-53 carries---Top Dog Percentage: 51% (239/465 carries) 2006--Tatum Bell-233 carries Mike Bell-157 carries Jake Plummer-36 carries Damien Nash-16 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 52% (233/442 carries) 2007--Travis Henry-167 carries Selvin Young-140 carries Andre Hall-44 carries Jay Cutler-44 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 42% (167/395 carries) 2008--Michael Pittman-76 carries Peyton Hillis-68 carries Selvin Young-61 carries Jay Cutler-57 carries Tatum Bell-44 carries Andre Hall-35 carries--- Top Dog Percentage: 22% (76/341 carries) This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even when he is given beauts like Clinton Portis at age 22 in 2003 where he rushed for 1500+ yards and over 5.5 yards per carry he only gave him 59% of the rushes. Â Not really in on this convo, but I had these stats available so feel free to use them or w/e. To me, I don't see Hightower being a serviceable starter this year....Torain and Helu and they have 2 other rookie Rbs on their roster...I don't see the Higtower hype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sturphy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This lil' chart tells you a few facts: Shanahan has NEVER EVER given anyone over 66% of the carries in a season. Even the Terrell Davis years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 (edited) Even the Terrell Davis years? Â I think he just ignored them for the sake of making his argument more persuasive. Â ETA: also ignored was the fact that the starting RB was hurt in many of those years, thus creating the need to go with a 2nd and 3rd option. Edited August 26, 2011 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theeohiostate Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 because he's going to go in the 6th round most likely after yesterday's game. Â Â got him today in the 8th in a Huddle draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damageinc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 His ADP seem to be 8 round in a 10 team and 7th in a 12 team . He probally should not go any lower as there are too many better backs and the Shanny affect has to be taken into account , also the fumble history. but I still feel he will be worth the 8th round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 His ADP in the IBL (interboard league) draft I just completed is round 10. There are 8 drafts in this league - I grabbed him in the late 9th round but that was before last night's game. I'll be happy if I can score him in round 5 or later. I'll probably target him in round 5 to ensure I get him - plus I won't have any RBs yet so unless there's somebody who majory slipped, I'll be eyeing Hightower in the 5th (12 team). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 His ADP in the IBL (interboard league) draft I just completed is round 10. There are 8 drafts in this league - I grabbed him in the late 9th round but that was before last night's game. I'll be happy if I can score him in round 5 or later. I'll probably target him in round 5 to ensure I get him - plus I won't have any RBs yet so unless there's somebody who majory slipped, I'll be eyeing Hightower in the 5th (12 team). Â Well, I guess we are drafting in tow different worlds. The FFPC had some posted drafts the other night (6 of them) and Hightower went as early as the 5th round pick #4 to as late as 7th round 2nd pick. So for the kind of redrafts I play that is my perception of where he is being drafted. What you are talking about, drafting him in the 9th round I have no problem with. I just think the reality is that after last nights performance his ADP is only going up (let it sink in for a few days) I'm just thinking he is going late 5th in the drafts I do, and his value is likely headed upward from there, and I'm saying TOO HIGHtower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 His ADP in the IBL (interboard league) draft I just completed is round 10. There are 8 drafts in this league - I grabbed him in the late 9th round but that was before last night's game. I'll be happy if I can score him in round 5 or later. I'll probably target him in round 5 to ensure I get him - plus I won't have any RBs yet so unless there's somebody who majory slipped, I'll be eyeing Hightower in the 5th (12 team). I'm getting the impression you like this kid... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not drinking the kool aid if he's going before the 8th round after that I'll take a shot at him. But after his preseason I got a feeling he won't be on any of my teams because his ADP is soaring after each game he plays. So mark it down he'll be the FF MVP this year just to spite me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 (edited) Well, I guess we are drafting in tow different worlds. The FFPC had some posted drafts the other night (6 of them) and Hightower went as early as the 5th round pick #4 to as late as 7th round 2nd pick. So for the kind of redrafts I play that is my perception of where he is being drafted. What you are talking about, drafting him in the 9th round I have no problem with. I just think the reality is that after last nights performance his ADP is only going up (let it sink in for a few days) I'm just thinking he is going late 5th in the drafts I do, and his value is likely headed upward from there, and I'm saying TOO HIGHtower. Â I was about to post the same thing on the FFPC data. I'm also of the opinion it's not a good strategy to limit yourself to a strict positional drafting in early rounds. Our high stakes team has generally had substantial/consistent success in going with the best value player, regardless of the position, in early rounds. Edited August 26, 2011 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameltosis Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Gee you fellers sure are getting worked up over Tim Hightower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Gee you fellers sure are getting worked up over Tim Hightower. Â This years Samkon Gado . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Gee you fellers sure are getting worked up over Tim Hightower. Â I wish I'd gotten worked up over Arian Foster last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even the Terrell Davis years?   I wish I'd gotten worked up over Arian Foster last year  i don't see HIghtower as the next TD or Foster. That is probably a safe assumption.  (Not saying that Sturphy and swammi are though) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Before we assume Hightower is this year's Foster, let us recognize two very important differences: There's not a Schaub or an Andre Johnson on Washington's team. Houston's offense was perfect for a back like Foster to excel. Accomplished QB with an elite WR option but it's not like they just throw it all over the park all day long. In other words, he gets enough touches but the D certainly has to be mindful of the pass. Â That said, there is some upside and I'd be happy to have him on my team... At the right price, and the 5th round ain't the right price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well, I guess we are drafting in tow different worlds. The FFPC had some posted drafts the other night (6 of them) and Hightower went as early as the 5th round pick #4 to as late as 7th round 2nd pick. So for the kind of redrafts I play that is my perception of where he is being drafted. What you are talking about, drafting him in the 9th round I have no problem with. I just think the reality is that after last nights performance his ADP is only going up (let it sink in for a few days) I'm just thinking he is going late 5th in the drafts I do, and his value is likely headed upward from there, and I'm saying TOO HIGHtower. I agree that his ADP has most certainly gone up, especially after last night - I was just posting what did happen in a particular league. I'm willing to draft his as early as round 4 but would prefer round 5 or later. It's something I'll have to gauge during the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameltosis Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wish I'd gotten worked up over Arian Foster last year  Well yeah, me too. But also remember getting worked up over William Green once too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 sometimes I need to be hit over the head to learn a lesson. Shnahan has beat me over the head several times in FF. I'll take him, but I won't reach... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUMbotron Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can't help but think we're like rats to the cheese here. Shanahan's such a dork, running full-on wham blocks and trap plays and springing RBs in fake games against exhibition defenses that didn't really game plan... I'm resisting the Hightower hype with every bone in my body. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Square Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can't help but think we're like rats to the cheese here. Shanahan's such a dork, running full-on wham blocks and trap plays and springing RBs in fake games against exhibition defenses that didn't really game plan... I'm resisting the Hightower hype with every bone in my body. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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