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Arian Foster

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In general, I'd be tickled to have Foster as my first round pick. But, I do think he contains a fair amount of legitimate risk and that's not what I really want in Round 1 when, say, an Adrian Peterson is available. I'm not convinced Arian has the pedigree to be a long term fantasy impact player like LaDainian Tomlinson before him. But, it seems like that is the consensus this year.

 

The whole pedigree thing is a pretty big deal when you are looking for an anchor for your fantasy team, no?

 

Foster wasn't drafted. He was previously signed and released by the Texans. He had an injury history in college. He' has a disciplinary history. Brandon Tate is looking good and was drafted in the 2nd round last year. Houston's all-pro FB isn't there this year.....

 

I wouldn't at all surprised if Foster is a top 10, top 5, or #1 RB this year, but I do think it's reasonable to question whether he puts up last years numbers.

 

Not that Foster necessarily carries a ton of risk, but it seems pretty substantial when you are drafting him #1 overall relative. It seems like everyone is kind of swinging for the fences and expecting a fastball down the middle with him at #1 overall.

 

pretty much. ADP is still the only guy out there I'd feel comfortable hanging my hat on as a top overall pick. that said, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the top scoring FF RB at the end of the year is somebody not even in the consensus top 5 right now. RB seems to be a high risk/high reward position in general, but especially so this year.

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Saturday didn't tell us anything. Saints play them week 3. They showed nothing on defense. I think intentionally. I would not get too excited about Foster's stats on Saturday.

 

Since 1990, 23 players have achieved 18+TDs in a season. Only 5 were able to repeat the season after. Most have marked declines.

 

Anything can happen. The loss of Leach is a big deal. Look at the production of LT when he lost Lorenzo Neal. When Neal joined the Chargers in 2003, LT jumped to 5.3 yards per carry. However, the first year Lorenzo Neal left was 2008, and coincidentally LT's YPC dropped from 4.7 to 3.8, the lowest of his career by far. Huge drop-off after the star fullback left.

 

Teams have different approaches to preseason. Texans came out like it was the Super Bowl. They showed most everything in their book. Saints, Eagles, Colts, etc, never do such a thing. I personally think it is smart not to. I guess we will be able to see the difference in Week 3 when it is for realsies.

 

 

While I agree with some of what you posted, I do think Foster has a good game regardless of opponent. And I do not think the loss of Leach is really going to be this big of a deal. This is starting to sound like the NFL draft analysis where people are looking for reasons to break someone down, when there isnt a noticable flaw there.

 

LT wasnt the same player after his 7th year of 300 plus carries. I think this had more to do with his decline, than Neal. LTs 28 rushing TDs were 10 more than he had ever had, or would have again, so that wasnt likely to be repeated.

 

 

Season Team G Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Rec Yds Y/G Avg Lng YAC 1stD TD Fum FumL

2001-02 San Diego 16 339 1236 77.3 3.6 10 59 367 22.9 6.2 27 7.8 12 0 8 5

2002-03 San Diego 16 372 1683 105.2 4.5 14 79 489 30.6 6.2 30 7.5 20 1 3 1

2003-04 San Diego 16 313 1645 102.8 5.3 13 100 725 45.3 7.3 73 8.2 26 4 2 0

2004-05 San Diego 15 339 1335 89.0 3.9 17 53 441 29.4 8.3 74 9.6 16 1 6 2

2005-06 San Diego 16 339 1462 91.4 4.3 18 51 370 23.1 7.3 41 9.1 15 2 3 1

2006-07 San Diego 16 348 1815 113.4 5.2 28 56 508 31.8 9.1 51 9.6 22 3 2 1

2007-08 San Diego 16 315 1474 92.1 4.7 15 60 475 29.7 7.9 36 9.6 21 3 0 0

2008-09 San Diego 16 292 1110 69.4 3.8 11 52 426 26.6 8.2 32 9.3 18 1 1 0

2009-10 San Diego 14 223 730 52.1 3.3 12 20 154 11.0 7.7 36 7.9 7 0 2 2

2010-11 NY Jets 15 219 914 60.9 4.2 6 52 368 24.5 7.1 21 7.0 19 0 4 0

Career 156 3099 13404 85.9 4.3 144 582 4323 27.7 7.4 74 8.5 176 15 31 12

 

 

 

I think Foster could run off a 2-3 year run like Larry Johnson had back with the Chiefs 5 or 6 years ago. He is that kind of back.

Edited by Brent

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Those are some cheap premium RB's, I would alter my draft strategy based on those.

 

Who did you get > 40?

Foster 55

Mendy 42

Chris Johnson 41 (people were certainly concerned about the hold-out)

 

So, provided CJ and Tenn get their chight figured out, I'm rocking a pretty nice wishbone.

 

Needless to say, I closed up shop for a while but still landed Finley at TE, some OK WRs and Eli Manning for next to nothing.

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It's up to Kubiak, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison and running backs coach Chick Harris to determine which backs play and how many carries they get.

 

"It's your job as a coach to find a way to get them their touches and keep them into what you're doing," Kubiak said. "One thing about the running back position: When you have a great one, they need it 25 times to do what they do.

 

"We've got a pretty darn good one (Foster), so that makes it difficult, but I still think there's a place for each of them."

 

The idea is to have all three backs ready for Indianapolis.

 

"We kind of go in with a plan," Kubiak said about regular season. "I could tell you Arian's going to take eight snaps and No. 2 is going to take the next three. That sounds good, but it kind of all depends on how it's going.

 

"We give them the freedom to raise your hand if you need a blow. For the most part, though, when Arian's at his best, he's playing three snaps to the other guys' one."

chron.com

 

Looking good for Foster to repeat :wacko:

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chron.com

 

Looking good for Foster to repeat :wacko:

 

I wouldn't be so sure. I think that both Slaton and Tate will take away carries from AF. Wasn't Tate drafted to be the starter before getting hurt? Both Tate & Slaton were effective in the pre-season games whereas it was pretty much AF last season without much depth. Just my gut feeling.

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I wouldn't be so sure. I think that both Slaton and Tate will take away carries from AF. Wasn't Tate drafted to be the starter before getting hurt? Both Tate & Slaton were effective in the pre-season games whereas it was pretty much AF last season without much depth. Just my gut feeling.

 

Yes, Tate was drafted to be the starter but he got hurt so the next guy in line (Foster) got his opportunity and made the most of it. Just like Slaton was drafted to be the starter but couldn't stay healthy so they drafted Tate. That's how it goes in the NFL---life moves on if you can't capitalize on your opportunity. If the guy behind you comes in and kills it, too bad so sad, you've lost your spot. Tate might very well be good enough to be a starter in the NFL, but he won't be one in Houston so long as Foster is there and stays healthy. Any touches Tate and Slaton get won't be enough to downgrade Foster's status as an elite back who will get 300+ touches this year.

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He looked great the other night. Brought back some great memories of last year's title run. I will take him at #1.

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I agree with Lord Opie's comment about Foster being in a tier one with several other players. I can see Ray Rice and Peterson being excellent choices also, especially in PPR. Peterson may be handling more of the third down duties this year. I think Rice is due for a breakout year.

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I'm keeping Foster in my main league for a early 2nd round pick (I pick 11th). I have to do at that point because the value, but I don't trust Kubiak. I don't consider Slaton or Ward a threat, but Tate scares me.

 

I have the #1 pick in my work league and will be taking ADP. First because I don't want to torpedo my only two leagues if Foster is a bust, and second because I think ADP has the least amount of risk.

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I'm keeping Foster in my main league for a early 2nd round pick (I pick 11th). I have to do at that point because the value, but I don't trust Kubiak. I don't consider Slaton or Ward a threat, but Tate scares me.

 

I have the #1 pick in my work league and will be taking ADP. First because I don't want to torpedo my only two leagues if Foster is a bust, and second because I think ADP has the least amount of risk.

 

I don't understand why the whole world keeps saying AP is the "safest". Why? He has a new QB, lost his #1 WR in Sid Rice, lost his starting LT in Bryant McKinnie, and Shiancoe has been steadily regressing and is hurt right now. Their new #1 WR, Harvin, is eternally listed as questionable due to his migraines and other ailments, and the WRs behind him are crappy--Berrian & Jenkins. Also, the Minny D has gone from being elite to just average, which means less time playing with a lead and thus less running plays. AP's carries have declined the past 3 years, too.

 

I feel like AP is often considered "safest" simply because the guys behind him haven't played as long, although by only a year. CJ2K, Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice, and Mendenhall only have 3 yrs under their belts, while AP has 4. Also of those 5 guys, AP has the most fumbles in his career--20! Although he only had 1 last year. By comparison, CJ2K only has 6, Charles has 5, Rice has 3, and Mendenhall has 5. So AP is also the guy most likely to fumble.

 

Lastly, in The Huddle's Offensive Line rankings, Minny grades out at #21 overall (below average), geting a C+ grade for run-blocking. Which to me means even more risk. By comparison, Houston's O-line graded out at #6 overall, getting an A- for run-blocking, a huge plus for Foster. Tennessee was #10 overall, Balt #11, and KC #12. Pitt is way down there at #29. So AP is running behind a worse O-line compared to the other guys in his tier (Foster, Rice, Charles, CJ2K).

 

I'm not an AP hater; I'm just really down on Minny this year. I've got the #1 pick in one league (taking Foster), and the #2 pick in my main league, and I plan to take either Foster or Rice.

Edited by OCSkins

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RR (i am gonna call him railroad) Ray Rice is gonna be the #1 back this year (ppr). i have the #1 pick and i am taking him. i just feel it.

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