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godtomsatan

Pac-12 weekend

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Started to throw some coin on some games this AM before heading out to the Washington-E.Washington contest (at least the first half...) on this gorgeous September day here in the Pacific Northwest. The salmon are spawning, it's finally summer, and the oblong ball is about to begin it's unpredictable pattern of bouncing!!

 

Sticking in the Pac-12, mostly so I can practice saying that, but also because it's the closest to home. Opening weekend is generally ripe with some lopsided affairs with good lines, especially with the BCS conferences picking on some minnows. Here's some action I'm generating for myself this afternoon because I can't just watch a game without having something to root for besides general chaos.

 

Minnesota +24 USC. Last year's matchup in Minneapolis had a line of USC -10 1/2. Minnesota scored a TD with 11 seconds left to make the score 32-20. Minnesota's coach opted for the extra point to make the final 32-21. Minnesota's coach got fired at the end of the season. Kiffin's a turd, the Gophers got a new coach, and the line opened up +21 this week. A bet against the people.

 

HOUSTON -1 UCLA. I don't think the Bruins are particularly good, and I believe Houston has some players. Last year's matchup was a blowout in Pasadena, and UCLA has this thing with the state of Texas, so I'd probably throw a minimal amount and expect the Cougs to win by a TD or so.

 

STANFORD -30 San Jose St.. I emptied out my bank account and put it on the Cardinal. Last time Stanford didn't cover when playing San Jose St.? Don't know because they've played each other 10 times since 1999 and it hasn't happened in any of those meetings. Even when Stanford was bad and SJ St. was good. This year (like last), the Cardinal is really good, and the Spartans are really bad.

 

CAL -10 1/2 Fresno St.. I don't have a good sense of the Bears this year, so no actual coin on this one, but I always like the home BCS team against a non-con squad.

 

LSU +3 Oregon (Arlington, TX). The big game of the day in this part of the world, and I assume all others. I'm staying away from it, not because I don't choose sides in pure evil (Ducks) vs. pure evil (SEC), but because I don't like the spread. Money seems to be coming in on Oregon as the line has bumped from early in the week, have some kind of sense that this is a close game in either direction. The under (54) might be the best play.

 

Colorado +6 HAWAII. Way to step into a new conference Buffs! Leave the vaunted Big 12, go on the road to a WAC squad and get laid some points! I like throwing dough at new coaches in their first game. Especially on the road.

 

The rest of the conference is playing a bunch of puffs this week, including my alma mater, who until today, had never played a non-Div.1 opponent in the modern era. The last FBS school to do so.

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poor showing by the Pac 12, no questions about.

 

Oreg. St losing to Sac St - pathetic.

UW looked horrible vs. EWU and will be a .500 club if they dont improve quickly.

UCLA, USC had pooor showings

Oregon was a disspaointment as well.

 

Stan, ASU, UA, CAL opened solid, but as we know a LONG way to go to see who is legit.

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poor showing by the Pac 12, no questions about.

 

Oreg. St losing to Sac St - pathetic.

UW looked horrible vs. EWU and will be a .500 club if they dont improve quickly.

UCLA, USC had pooor showings

Oregon was a disspaointment as well.

 

Stan, ASU, UA, CAL opened solid, but as we know a LONG way to go to see who is legit.

 

I'll make excuses for the Huskies.....they ran a vanilla offense and refused to make any adjustments on defense. EWU dropped back and ran a slant or a quick out every frickin play (69 passing attempts). Talent won out in the end, and they escaped an embarrassment (see OSU), but I'll be more worried if they can't handle Hawaii next weekend.

 

Mike Riley sometimes coaches games like he doesn't give a SHAM WOW! about whether he wins or not, and based on how that one ended, I assume that was at play.

 

UCLA got beat by a better team (they aren't that good). USC had a typical no-show performance. Oregon lost another game where a team had more than a month to prepare for them (I believe the only games Chip Kelly has lost have been either the first game or the last game of a season). Colorado got beat by a supposedly solid Hawaii squad. We shall see next weekend how tough they are.

 

Meanwhile, I went 5-1 ATS. :wacko:

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Week 2 shall be spent mostly in Vegas....

 

OKLAHOMA ST. +13 Arizona: There are apparently people who would rather watch a college football game than the Saints and the Packers. Maybe more than T. Boone Pickens and a couple of suits in Bristol, CT, but probably not much more. The Wildcats might put some points up on the Cowboys, but I have a hard time seeing how they stay in this game despite the great QB.

 

ARIZONA ST. -8 Missouri: Sun Devils have the better matchup for their Big 12 opponent this weekend. First off, they're a better team than Arizona. Second off, they're at home. Third off, they play a weaker opponent.

 

Oregon St. +19 WISCONSIN: I've heard before that the best thing a football team can do is to come out an play poorly in Week 1. Then the coaches get into panic mode and make the adjustments they're gut told them to make, but they never did because they wanted to trust their players. Mike Riley's a great football coach, and his team pooped the bed big time last weekend in Corvallis. They got no chance to win this one, but they can keep it under 3 TDs.

 

DUKE +21 Stanford: I'm not sure what it is about this game, but the cross-country trip and the lesser opponent strikes me as a trap when it comes to the spr5 ead. Even though by all rights, the Cardinal should win this game by 50.

 

Nevada +26.5 OREGON: Nevada's got an OK squad, and the Ducks sounded like a bunch of whiny bee-yotches after the LSU game. Not going to lose it, but I'll toss some coin on the inferior squad to keep it under 4 TD.

 

WASHINGTON -6.5 Hawaii: I expect the Huskies to bounce back and handle the WAC squad at home with some degree of comfort. I'll go out on a limb and predict a 17 pt win. Back to the whole notion that a team learns a lot after their first game, especially when it wasn't particularly well played.

 

COLORADO +6.5 California: Pac-12 debut for the Buffalo. I went with them last week, which could be a bit of an error in my ways, but I don't really believe Cal is all that this year, at least not enough to get a TD on the road.

 

WASHINGTON ST. -14 UNLV: This could be a breakout game for the Cougs. An opponent at home that they can handle on both sides of the football if they choose to. A little iffy on the spread, but I'm backing them somewhat blindly as I'm not certain of the QB situation.

 

Utah +9.5 USC: I kind of feel like USC's going to play down to their competition while they have no post-season to play for. Side with the Utes on this one to keep it kind of close in their conference debut.

 

San Jose St. +21 UCLA: The Bruins aren't very good, and SJ St. played with a little heart last week against a much better Pac-12 foe in Stanford. I'm going to probably sit this one out $$$ wise, but I'm guessing the Spartans keep in it longer than expected.

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OKLAHOMA ST. +13 Arizona

ARIZONA ST. -8 Missouri

Oregon St. +19 WISCONSIN

DUKE +21 Stanford

Nevada +26.5 OREGON

WASHINGTON -6.5 Hawaii

COLORADO +6.5 California

WASHINGTON ST. -14 UNLV

Utah +9.5 USC

San Jose St. +21 UCLA

 

6-4 on the week. 11-5 on the season.

Washington covering on a blocked PAT with 1 minute to go. :wacko: The crazy Utah-USC finish wasn't a factor given the line I posted.

 

The week started out on Thursday with an ass-whoopin' of a mid-tier team by a top 10 caliber school out of conference. Expected and no big deal as the Wildcats had it within 2 TD midway through the 3rd, but couldn't keep pace with a balanced Okie St. squad. On Friday, the Sun Devils looked typically erratic as they nearly coughed up a game in Tempe to a decent Big 12 team, hanging on in OT. I thought the Beavers would be more competitive this season, but it just doesn't look like their year. Conversely, I have no idea why I'd side against Stanford or Oregon in either of those situations. I don't know if I'll gamble against either one of those sides the rest of the year. Up in these necks, the Huskies made a couple of errors that kept Hawaii in the game a lot longer than they should have been, and the Cougs destroyed a UNLV squad that may not be that good, but last I checked is still FBS. The Bruins suck and the countdown on Slick Rick has begun.

 

Conference play started out with two great looking games, as Cal held off a late Colorado comeback and OT session to win, and Utah had a game-tying FG blocked as time expired. Not sure if anyone caught the significance of that last play as it happened quite late in the evening. The Trojans returned the blocked kick for a TD. Of course, given the emotion of the moment, the USC sideline poured onto the field as the ball was being returned, and the Pac-10 ref crew threw a flag citing "excessive celebration" and negating the TD per new rules this year. Game ends according to refs, final score 17-14. Turns out the officiating crew applied the rule incorrectly, and some halfhour later, conference administrators correct the scoring to count the TD, final score now 23-14. No big deal, unless you had USC -8.5, which was the closing line. Poostorm ensues in the sportsbooks. Some Utah folks got paid out, some USC people undoubtedly got angry and ripped their tickets up, and someone somewhere probably believes they had a prayer answered and life altered and will never ever bet a game again.

 

Week 3 picks. You can thank me later.

 

COLORADO -7 Colorado St.: I have an unhealthy thing for the Buffs, as I've sided them all three weekends. The conference is 9-0 straight up against non-conf opponents at home thus far. Don't see any reason not to side with them here given the spread.

 

UCLA +3.5 Texas: The sharks are swirling around for Rick Neuheisel and he's got just a handful of opportunities to save himself for another year. This is one of them. Texas will no doubt be seeking revenge for their "shocking" loss to the Bruins in Austin last year. The added bonus of auditioning for a Pac-12 school in case they want to join the conference next year is probably a motivator as well. Honestly, my gut screams to take the Longhorns here, but I have some kind of sneaky feeling The Weasel of Westwood ekes something out against an overrated Big12 foe.

 

Washington +17 NEBRASKA: The Cornhuskers came into Seattle last year and destroyed the Huskies in a game where the final score of 56-21 didn't tell the story of how lopsided it truly was. Of course, it was the best game Nebraska played all season, and their spotty play down the stretch was awarded with a rematch against Washington in the Holiday Bowl. The 19-7 victory for the Huskies was not as close as that score indicated, so now we fast-forward to the rubber match in Lincoln. Despite this being the 3rd matchup in less than a year, all three scenarios entering each game have been different and this one feels like it's probably going to play out as close to form as any of them. I expect Nebraska to win, and potentially dominate, but I don't see the blowout of 12 months ago, Maybe a 35-20 kind of game. Washington looks like they've struggled their first two games, but really were two plays in each game from blowouts.

 

SAN DIEGO ST. -5.5 Washington St.: I do think this is a very winnable game for the Cougs, looking to start out 3-0 for the first time in a very long while, but SDSU has begun to develop a very solid football program and should present a lot of issues for the young Wazzu squad running out a backup QB. Like the UCLA matchup, if I think about this more I'll probably switch my pick.

 

Arizona St. +2 ILLINOIS: I'm not sure what the deal is here. ASU opened up at -2, and it's swayed over to UI -2 as the week has worn on. Is Illinois that good? A great rushing attack, but not a strong program, and the Devils seem fairly legit, if not erratic. Very senior laden, and a very unique QB for defenses to game plan against. I'm sidin.g with Erickson having his team up for the test, but probably not tossing a lot of dough their way.

 

USC +16 Syracuse: When forced to, I'll go with the Trojans. That is my motto in the sack as well as when considering USC at home against Big East opponents.

 

BYU -3.5 Utah: Throw out the records when these two face each other I guess. The Holy War? Great name for a game of course. Both teams coming off tough losses against better opponents on the road. Go with the home team to win, but wouldn't shock me if it's a FG difference.

 

Stanford -8.5 ARIZONA: Not betting against the Cardinal until Vegas gives them proper respect with their point spreads. Blowouts by double-digit margins over their opening lines in their first two games. Significant value plays for easy dough. Arizona just got torched by the #7 team in the country by 23 on the road. Do you really think the #6 ranked team is 15 points worse by playing in Tucson?

 

I'll stay away from Cal vs. Presbyterian and Oregon vs. Missouri St. unless anyone truly wants a detailed analysis.

Edited by godtomsatan

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COLORADO -7 Colorado St.

UCLA +3.5 Texas

Washington +17 NEBRASKA

SAN DIEGO ST. -5.5 Washington St.

Arizona St. +2 ILLINOIS

USC +16 Syracuse

BYU -3.5 Utah

Stanford -8.5 ARIZONA

 

5-3 for the week. 16-8 on the year.

 

I don't know what I was thinking picking UCLA. They are just not a very good football team. I have no idea what the heck happened in the Holy War either with regards to Utah destroying BYU 54-10. Utah might be a little bit better than everyone thinks given their last couple of results.

 

Week 4 begins the conference season in earnest with a smaller schedule of inter-conference games, and a non-conf tilt that probably looked a lot more attractive 6 years ago when it was booked.

 

WASHINGTON -1 California: I thought the Bears were going to be more of a second division kind of squad this year, but seem to be holding their own at least in terms of beating other second division candidates on the road (in Boulder, in OT, a couple weeks back). The Huskies got beat up by Nebraska, but kept in the game despite numerous bad calls and special teams errors. Very winnable game at home for them. Probably hitting this one pretty hard all over this weekend.

 

Colorado +15 OHIO ST.: I've been feeling like the Buckeyes were undervalued the first couple of weekends, and so were the Buffs, but this strikes me as a game that neither team really has a lot at stake in, and difficult to prognosticate. Ohio St. is in the midst of a lost season, struggling with Toledo and losing badly to Miami, while the Buffs are coming off a nice win over CSU, and a nicely played P12 opener vs. Cal. I suppose that's enough to make me think the game will be competitive enough to side with the P12, even if teams are 3-7 ATS against BCS conferences thus far.

 

OREGON ST. -4 UCLA: Week 4, and a potential determiner for bottom of the Pac already. The Beavs look terrible thus far, and so do the Bruins. At least the game is in Corvallis and the Rodgers brother with the bum wheel will be back in orange and black.

 

ARIZONA +14.5 Oregon: The Wildcats have the misfortune of going up against Oklahoma St., Stanford, and Oregon back-to-back-to-back weeks. They didn't cover the first two, and were largely not a match, but this isn't a bad squad and it will be interesting to see how the Ducks fare vs. a hostile environment at night in the desert in the first real test since losing to LSU. Side with the 'Cats to keep it interesting.

 

USC +2.5 ARIZONA ST.: Most interesting matchup of the weekend, given that both teams seem to play to their competition more than within their own abilities. I'm siding with the road team here because there's something about this ASU squad that strikes me as underachievers. These are the kinds of games those kinds of teams lose.

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WASHINGTON -1 California

Colorado +15 OHIO ST.

OREGON ST. -4 UCLA

ARIZONA +14.5 Oregon

USC +2.5 ARIZONA ST.

 

1-4 for the week. 17-12 on the year.

 

A beating last week, as Washington's second half defense and near unstoppable offense carried the only win of the week. UW is 3-0 vs. the spread and getting a very generous cushion this weekend in SLC. Colorado was a tad listless in Columbus, UCLA got a big road win against an ugly Beaver squad, Arizona has played the toughest schedule in the country and could be a value play down the stretch despite beatdowns by Okla St., Stanford, and Oregon, and ASU stood up to USC and knocked them around in the 4th quarter.

 

USC -12.5 Arizona: Both of these teams seem to be struggling a bit, Arizona due to the superior talent they've had to face, and USC probably due to a lack of motivation. I'm thinking this might end up being a closer game because of USC's penchant for keeping things close, but I feel like they bounce back big at home after last weekend's drubbing in Tempe.

 

COLORADO -3 Washington St.: Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see Wazzu keeping things that close in Boulder.

 

Washington +10 UTAH: Might be a homer pick, but I have a hard time believing that Utah deserves a double-digit cushion over anyone in this conference outside of OSU or UCLA. The better bet is the OVER 55.

 

ARIZONA ST. -18 Oregon St.: ASU looks like the best team in the South to me. Tendency to overlook some opponents like Missouri and Illinois, they showed up for USC last weekend. I think they smell blood in the water and steamroll the Beav.

 

STANFORD -21.5 UCLA: Stanford is a money-making machine. Super undervalued thus far, that half point is kind of scary, as the Bruins are coming off a road win, but the Cardinal had a bye and will be licking their chops.

Edited by godtomsatan

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Finally some NCAA talk....

 

I agree w/all of these except Stanford so you're probably in trouble.

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Finally some NCAA talk....

 

I agree w/all of these except Stanford so you're probably in trouble.

 

UCLA runs the football 3x as much as they pass, and Stanford has the best run D in American, even if that LB is out. Take it to the bank, Slick Rick sucks Dick!

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Please work on your phrasings. So much for breakfast :wacko:

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USC -12.5 Arizona

OREGON -23.5 California

Arizona -2 OREGON ST.

Arizona St. -3.5 UTAH

Colorado +29 STANFORD

Washington St. +3.5 UCLA

 

2-3 on the week, 21-18 on the year. I'm slippin!!

 

The week saw Oregon and Stanford steamroll lesser opponents, OSU and UCLA win home games that some/me didn't expect them to, and ASU make Utah look extremely overrated. Mike Stoops at Arizona also got the heave after the Wildcats couldn't muster a victory against a depleted Beaver team. Ah well, never could take that team to the level he aspired to when he took the job.

 

USC -3 California: Thursday night special. I'd be surprised if this game is as competitive as the point spread would indicate. Cal stuck with Oregon for a half, but I just don't see them sticking with the more talented teams in the conference. Maybe it's a Thursday night excitement thing that propels them, but I'm guessing only 5 days after a drubbing and having to face a more talented Trojan squad coming off a bye isn't going to be fun for them.

 

PITTSBURGH -6.5 Utah: It would be nice to see a Pac-12 team travel across the country and stick it to a Big East team, but Utah doesn't really seem to be a legit P12 team yet. Not to mention running out a backup QB still. Not to mention, further, the conference really hasn't been that good on the road against non-conf foes this season.

 

WASHINGTON -15.5 Colorado: The Huskies are rolling, the Buffaloes are reeling. The spread seems a little high to me, but UW is undefeated ATS this season, and Colorado hasn't won a road game since '07.

 

BYU +3 Oregon St.: Not really sure what to make of this game. Neither team is particularly good, and there's something to be said for OSU's win last weekend maybe carrying them to a few in a row. Still think BYU's suffering a little cold snap and this is more important for them to get a W here than it is for OSU.

 

Stanford -21 WASHINGTON ST.: Jeff Tuell is supposed to be back for Wazzu at QB, but I don't see them keeping it close with Stanford. This is the first team with a winning record the Cardinal will face this season.

 

OREGON -14.5 Arizona St.: Arguably a preview of the conference championship game. ASU is a decent team, but I have a hard time thinking they're within 2 TDs of UO in Eugene, even if LaMichael James is out.

 

OOPS! I edited this instead of replying to it!

Edited by godtomsatan

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2-3 on the week, 19-15 overall. I'm starting to lose some steam. I should really bet on college football in September then switch to the NFL in October, then quit gambling in November.

 

OREGON -23.5 California: If anyone wants to bet on this one still, I got Oregon minus an arm.

 

Arizona -2 OREGON ST.: Arizona is favored on the road despite a 9-game FBS losing streak. By the way, those 9 losses are USC twice, Stanford twice, Oregon twice, Oklahoma St. twice, and Arizona St.. Keep in mind that the Beavers beat UA last fall in Tucson (their only other loss besides the aforementioned last season). I still feel like the Beavers aren't as bad as their record or performance indicates, but really, I'm looking at their schedule at this point and wondering where a win is going to come from the rest of the way out. This might be their best chance. Still, if UCLA can handle them in Corn Valley, then Arizona certainly can.

 

Arizona St. -3.5 UTAH: Utah got a rude SLC welcome into the Pac-12 last weekend when Washington came in and beat the snot out of them from the opening kickoff. Also, the Utes fans must like to throw their money they aren't spending on the "I'm a Mormon" PSA campaign I see on the internet and city buses ALL THE FREAKIN' TIME on Utah winning football games because the line went from 7 to 10 against UW and this weekend it went as high as ASU -4.5 before being slowly dropped as the week's worn on back down a full point. Either the houses are trying to bleed the fervent, or they really like their squad. I still think the Devils are a really decent football squad this year and after what I saw last weekend, won't have a difficult time out-physical-ing Utah as the game goes on.

 

Colorado +29 STANFORD: I've put the mortgage down on Stanford every week this season, but I think we finally got a spot where we'll stay off of them and enjoy what we've earned. No doubt who the better squad is, just don't see a lot of value in the spread.

 

Washington St. +3.5 UCLA: Paul Wulff probably bought himself a full year of employment with the win @ Colorado last week. He could get himself an extension if he wins in Pasadena tomorrow. The Cougs are very sneaky and have been since starting QB Jeff Tuel got hurt in the first game and Marshall Loebestell began handling duties. I don't like the Bruins much, and this is a very winnable game for Wazzu, especially riding high after their big win in Boulder last Saturday.

 

Nice job as usual.

 

IIf OSU can put up 35 they have a shot against Zona. I just don't see them holding down Foles and group. Got to side with the Cats on this one. Arizona 38 - OSU 34

 

The Utah game is a tough one. I would go with Utah to bounce back but not sure they can pull this one off with their 2nd string QB? ASU has a lot of weapons on offense and, as you said, are way more physical than the Utes. Going upset here though, Utah by 3. 27-24

 

29 isn't enough for the Buffs @ Stanford. Luck will have his way with the beat up Colorado secondary. Stanford 51 - Colorado 10

 

The Cougars come back down to earth as UCLA wins by 10, 34 - 24.

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UA covers and gets right vs an OSU team that doesnt have the offense to keep up with Foles. 38-24

 

ASU beats a not so good Utah team starting their backup QB - Devils by double digits 37-17

 

UCLA beats da Cougs 34-21. Wazu had no bix beating CU - 2 conference W in row? negative.

 

Stan/CU - Stan 48-10. Lay the chalk

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USC -12.5 Arizona

OREGON -23.5 California

Arizona -2 OREGON ST.

Arizona St. -3.5 UTAH

Colorado +29 STANFORD

Washington St. +3.5 UCLA

 

2-3 on the week, 21-18 on the year. I'm slippin!!

 

The week saw Oregon and Stanford steamroll lesser opponents, OSU and UCLA win home games that some/me didn't expect them to, and ASU make Utah look extremely overrated. Mike Stoops at Arizona also got the heave after the Wildcats couldn't muster a victory against a depleted Beaver team. Ah well, never could take that team to the level he aspired to when he took the job.

 

USC -3 California: Thursday night special. I'd be surprised if this game is as competitive as the point spread would indicate. Cal stuck with Oregon for a half, but I just don't see them sticking with the more talented teams in the conference. Maybe it's a Thursday night excitement thing that propels them, but I'm guessing only 5 days after a drubbing and having to face a more talented Trojan squad coming off a bye isn't going to be fun for them.

 

PITTSBURGH -6.5 Utah: It would be nice to see a Pac-12 team travel across the country and stick it to a Big East team, but Utah doesn't really seem to be a legit P12 team yet. Not to mention running out a backup QB still. Not to mention, further, the conference really hasn't been that good on the road against non-conf foes this season.

 

WASHINGTON -15.5 Colorado: The Huskies are rolling, the Buffaloes are reeling. The spread seems a little high to me, but UW is undefeated ATS this season, and Colorado hasn't won a road game since '07.

 

BYU +3 Oregon St.: Not really sure what to make of this game. Neither team is particularly good, and there's something to be said for OSU's win last weekend maybe carrying them to a few in a row. Still think BYU's suffering a little cold snap and this is more important for them to get a W here than it is for OSU.

 

Stanford -21 WASHINGTON ST.: Jeff Tuell is supposed to be back for Wazzu at QB, but I don't see them keeping it close with Stanford. This is the first team with a winning record the Cardinal will face this season.

 

OREGON -14.5 Arizona St.: Arguably a preview of the conference championship game. ASU is a decent team, but I have a hard time thinking they're within 2 TDs of UO in Eugene, even if LaMichael James is out.

Edited by godtomsatan

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On my way to Vegas .... you left out the best game of the weekend .... ASU and Oregon? I think ASU has the athleticism to keep it within 14 of the Ducks. The rest of the picks look like mine except I think WSU scores late to lose by 17. I think the extra 1/2 point (21.5) might come into play so as much as I dislike them I'm betting the Cougs on this one.

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On my way to Vegas .... you left out the best game of the weekend .... ASU and Oregon? I think ASU has the athleticism to keep it within 14 of the Ducks. The rest of the picks look like mine except I think WSU scores late to lose by 17. I think the extra 1/2 point (21.5) might come into play so as much as I dislike them I'm betting the Cougs on this one.

 

Oops....added!

 

Arizona St. can match Oregon 67 out of 70 plays and those three plays they don't will be game-breakers. ASU almost lost to Missouri and did lose to Illinois. No way they come into Eugene and make this game that close.

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USC -3 California

PITTSBURGH -6.5 Utah

WASHINGTON -15.5 Colorado

BYU +3 Oregon St.

Stanford -21 WASHINGTON ST.

OREGON -14.5 Arizona St.

 

4-2, if only by a stinkin' half point last week. 25-20 on the year.

 

I'm in Europe right now, suffering from a time lapse, so forgive a late pick in the first game. Last week proved USC can be really good if it wants to be, the Big East is not a very good football conference, Washington made it through the patsy part of the schedule looking like the 3rd or 4th best team in the conference, BYU has likely corrected whatever was ailing them, Stanford and Oregon are the class of the league and will be a dandy to wa tch in a few weeks.

 

ARIZONA -4.5 UCLA: They got to win sometime.

 

Oregon -31 COLORADO: As a semi-regular gambler, I don't like to put so many points out there, but I don't see the Buffs having any kind of staying power with their injuries and the Ducks' firepower.

 

CALIFORNIA -1.5 Utah: Utah has looked every bit a second tier team in conference play thus far, then travel back east to kick Pitt's ass. Cal hasn't looked particularly strong against the upper echelon of teams in the conference, but they're at home and this is very winnable.

 

USC +9.5 NOTRE DAME: OK, the Irish are "back" to some degree, but laying almost double digits to USC? I'll take the Trojans all the way here.

 

Washington +20 STANFORD: Very much the game of the week. Both teams are undefeated ATS this season, so something has to give. Washington is young, hasn't really played anyone worth a poo besides Nebraska, and their defense got beat up bad in that game. Since then, they've been fairly tough on D, and steamed through Cal, Utah, and Colorado. Stanford is a juggernaut and is balanced on both sides of the ball, but I believe UW will have the firepower to keep up with the Cardinal for most of the game. Probably something like 38-21 or 24 or something like that, but within 3 TD.

 

WASHINGTON ST. -3 Oregon St.: Man, the Cougs can't even get more than a FG against a lowly Beaver squad in the Palouse? I'll take 'em.

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ARIZONA -4.5 UCLA

Oregon -31 COLORADO

CALIFORNIA -1.5 Utah

USC +9.5 NOTRE DAME

Washington +20 STANFORD

WASHINGTON ST. -3 Oregon St.

 

4-2 on the week. 29-22 on the year. I'm apparently good with all the teams that aren't covered by my local media. Especially when I'm on the road and not really reading anything about them. Arizona finally got off the schneid, and sealed Slick Rick's fate in Westwood in the process. Oregon and Stanford demonstrated they are the clear class of the league (if there wasn't any question). Cal finally put together a big win. And those dumb Irish gambling fools who pushed that line up so high deserved the beating USC gave their squad.

 

OREGON -34.5 Washington St.: Jeff Tuel got hurt again for Wazzu. Can't see them within 5 TDs in Eugene.

 

Colorado +31 ARIZONA ST.: The Buffs haven't won a game on the road since 2007. Read that sentence again. That was 4 years ago! Crazy....I can't fathom the Devils are 31 points better than anyone in conference though. We'll see.

 

California -4.5 UCLA: UCLA got beat like a drum in Tucson last week. Cal looked real tight against Utah. Have to figure the Bears have something to play for.while the Bruins are mailing it in. Stranger things have happened though.

 

Oregon St. -5 UTAH: The Beavs are starting a mid-season rebound, while Utah has had a tendency to look overmatched in conference play. The Utes did thump BYU earlier this year, while OSU did not. Have a feeling that Riley's getting things situated a bit there.

 

Stanford -7.5 USC: Throwing the farm at the Cardinal again this weekend. Until someone beats them.

 

WASHINGTON -4 Arizona: OK, I know the Huskies got clobbered by Stanford, but I'm not seeing this game particularly close. Maybe within 10, but not 4.

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4-2 on the week. 29-22 on the year. I'm apparently good with all the teams that aren't covered by my local media. Especially when I'm on the road and not really reading anything about them. Arizona finally got off the schneid, and sealed Slick Rick's fate in Westwood in the process. Oregon and Stanford demonstrated they are the clear class of the league (if there wasn't any question). Cal finally put together a big win. And those dumb Irish gambling fools who pushed that line up so high deserved the beating USC gave their squad.

 

OREGON -34.5 Washington St.: Jeff Tuel got hurt again for Wazzu. Can't see them within 5 TDs in Eugene. agreed

 

Colorado +31 ARIZONA ST.: The Buffs haven't won a game on the road since 2007. Read that sentence again. That was 4 years ago! Crazy....I can't fathom the Devils are 31 points better than anyone in conference though. We'll see. wouldn't touch this one

 

California -4.5 UCLA: UCLA got beat like a drum in Tucson last week. Cal looked real tight against Utah. Have to figure the Bears have something to play for.while the Bruins are mailing it in. Stranger things have happened though. agreed - like Cal here, UCLA is done.

 

Oregon St. -5 UTAH: The Beavs are starting a mid-season rebound, while Utah has had a tendency to look overmatched in conference play. The Utes did thump BYU earlier this year, while OSU did not. Have a feeling that Riley's getting things situated a bit there. I like the Utes -5 here - they get their first Pac 12 Win

Stanford -7.5 USC: Throwing the farm at the Cardinal again this weekend. Until someone beats them. uh yeah, am hitting the Furd hard

 

WASHINGTON -4 Arizona: OK, I know the Huskies got clobbered by Stanford, but I'm not seeing this game particularly close. Maybe within 10, but not 4. I really have no idea what is going on here. Opened at 8! both teams are about even - great O, I actually give UA the edge on D, but kinda like UW -4, not sure how anyone can have confidence in UA on the road. Should be a shootout, can't wait!

 

other plays I like today - digging a lot of TD favorites for some reason:

 

Hawaii -7

Wisky -7.5

LA Tech -7.5

maryland -7.5

USC -3.5

 

chalk baby chalk

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Stanford -7.5 USC

:wacko: And this is why gambling is so effed up. Stanford wins by 8 in OT because they had to go for 2. I was rooting for them, mind you, and remembered the line was around 7 or so. That was my first thought when they converted the 2 pt conversion, that the line may have just swung.

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OREGON -34.5 Washington St.

Colorado +31 ARIZONA ST.

California -4.5 UCLA

Oregon St. -5 UTAH

Stanford -7.5 USC

WASHINGTON -4 Arizona

 

2-4 on the week. 31-26 on the year.

 

Did Wazzu provide the template for a Pac-12 team (that's not Stanford) to beat the Ducks? Ran the ball and controlled the clock and were much more physical at the LOS. Make no mistake that the Cougs couldn't keep the Ducks from scoring in the second half, but take away two special teams TDs for Oregon and this game is even-steven. Colorado couldn't even muster enough to cover a 30 pt spread. Welcome to the conference. UCLA bounces back and thumps Cal. Jeff Tedford is the only coach in my lifetime to have any sustained success at Cal, but jeez, aren't Bears fans tired of being so mediocre and not surpassing the level he's brought them to? Utah shows some life in conference play, certainly before Colorado has. The Stanford/USC line was decided, as detlef pointed out, by the mandated 2PC in the OT. Thank you dumb college football rules for padding my account!! That was the first close game the Cardinal have been involved with all season and it was more or less a classic. If Oregon can survive at Washington this weekend, next week in Palo Alto will be must see television for all college football fans. Finally, Washington covered in a fun and entertaining game highlighted by Chris Polk's dominating 5 TD performance. Draftniks and dynasty nerds take note, not sure there's a more primed RB to step in and take over a running game at the NFL level than Polk right now.

 

Onto the big bad weekend that has me wearing purple and gold all week long:

 

USC -20 Colorado: The line is probably accurate, but I wouldn't throw much down on this game. Colorado isn't a very good team, at all, and USC is probably let down big time after the tough loss last week to Stanford. There's nothing else on TV tonight, so of course I'll throw something down on the Trojans just because I sense Matt Barkley will be QBing for the Seahawks next season.

 

Stanford -20.5 OREGON ST.: If you started betting $10 on Stanford and the points in Week 1 of the college football season and rolled your winnings over into each subsequent weekend, you would have $1,829.94 to throw on them against the Beavers. No reason to think they're not going to keep rolling despite the close call last weekend. Big matchup vs. the Ducks to follow.

 

Washington St. -8.5 CALIFORNIA: The speculation is that the Cougs are playing for Paul Wulff's job this weekend, but I'm not sure that's reading too much into things. Wulff hasn't been that good at turning Wazzu into a winner yet, but they are a far more balanced team than when he took over 3 years ago. I give them the points nod this weekend, just because Cal is so inconsistent, but not sure they got the horses to win outright.

 

ARIZONA -3.5 Utah: Utah seems to be playing hard, Arizona seems to have talent and no sense of how to use it. Where would this team be without Foles? I'll go with the Wildcats in a close one at home.

 

Arizona St. -8.5 UCLA: UCLA bounced back from their embarrassing defeat in Tucson on national TV to thump Cal last weekend. I don't see them coming anywhere close to doing that with a pretty good ASU squad who are at least 10 points better than UCLA. Might consider this lock of the week kind of status.

 

WASHINGTON +16.5 Oregon: This is the biggest game of the weekend in the entire nation. Tivo your LSU/Bama baloney and pull up a chair and watch this baby, even if it's past your bedtime. The last game at old Husky Stadium, the most hated rivalry this side of anything (it really is a bitter fanbase that has a great deal of animosity between the two of them). Washington is bringing back every player of note in their illustrious football history from the 1991 national championship team to Don Heinrich's rotting corpse to ring out the old lady by the lake in grand style. The fact that one of the prettiest settings in college football is going out on a Saturday night in November against the hated Ducks is appropriate as all get out. Masking everyone's blemishes in a last shot at glory. I'm a homer, but I'm going with the Dawgs in this one. Too many points to give for what really is the most important game these kids will ever have to play on the Washington side.

 

Serious about watching the game for you east coasters and southerners too drunk and angry/happy after watching your team win/lose. Should be a offensive showdown with a lot of exciting stuff going on. Definitely has a script worth seeing how it plays out.

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Chris Polk's dominating 5 TD performance. Draftniks and dynasty nerds take note, not sure there's a more primed RB to step in and take over a running game at the NFL level than Polk right now.

 

This guy is the real deal. He's as tough and as physical as they come and has proven that he can catch the football. This guy should be a Top 4 heisman candiddate but will probably go unnoticed. Just broke my favorite Husky, Napolean Kaufman's, record of 100 yard rushing games in a career. Wish the guy would stay for his senior year but he's all but gone. The key to tomorrow nights game for the Ducks will be stopping Polk. The key for the Huskies is holding Oregon to under 35. From what I've seen from UDub lately that will be tough to do.

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The key for the Huskies is holding Oregon to under 35. From what I've seen from UDub lately that will be tough to do.

 

The key for the Huskies is to score more points than Oregon. That's the only way they'll win.

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USC -20 Colorado

Stanford -20.5 OREGON ST.

Washington St. -8.5 CALIFORNIA

ARIZONA -3.5 Utah

Arizona St. -8.5 UCLA

WASHINGTON +16.5 Oregon

 

2-4 on the week. 35-30 on the year.

 

I'm going bonkers on the pros the last few weeks, I should switch up my game....

 

USC, Stanford, and Oregon are playing lights out right now. Suddenly, like in the last two weekends, UCLA apparently is too. The Bruins control their destiny and could go from Neuheisel getting canned after the Arizona loss to being in the driver's seat for the South division's spot in the championship game. Utah has made a nice second half push to get into bowl positioning in their first season in the conference, while Washington has some fundamental basis for a drive to be in the top of the conference at some point in the near future, they are clearly not big enough, fast enough, or skilled enough to compete with the top end teams in the nation.

 

Anyway, big game weekend with the mighty clash of Oregon and Stanford. Definitely the game with the most ramifications nationally.

 

COLORADO +10 Arizona: I'm not sure the Wildcats have a lot of business being favored by dub-didje on the road against anyone.

 

USC -11 Washington: UW has won the last two meetings against the Trojans. Mid-November in the Coliseum, and history showing that it's never happened 3x.

 

UTAH -7 UCLA: Tough game to pick. Both teams are playing much better than they were a month ago. Siding with the home team, even though I really have zero inclination either way.

 

CALIFORNIA -9 Oregon St.: Cal is playing for bowl eligibility, and this is their last, best shot to get to 6 wins, since they close out @ Stanford and @ ASU.

 

Oregon -3.5 STANFORD: I wish like hell that Stanford will win this game, despite their boorish alums and my loathing of all-things Duck. Te fact is that the Cardinal haven't played anyone of note, at all, this season. An overtime win @ USC is the best win they have all year. Incidentally, that's the only game they've played where the margin is under 24 points. I'd love for Stanford to win and go on to play in the BCS title game, but as good and talented as they are on both sides of the football, I'm just not sure they're creative enough to overcome what the Ducks are going to throw at them. Totally worth watching and will likely be an incredible game, but I'm stepping out and taking the road team.

 

WASHINGTON ST. +12 Arizona St. : I have no reason either way to make this call. I'm pretty sure the state of Arizona thinks it's basketball season.

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