Chief Dick Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 He might play 3+ years and, like Rogers, allow the QB behind him to learn at a more natural pace. Again, nice problem to have vs. the debacle the team is at the moment. But can you realistically tie that much cap money into the QB position? Even with the new CBA, that's a ton of money on a team with a lot of other needs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Yes, because there is no certainty it's 3+ years. He might already be done. He might get hit in week 1, feel the scraping of a screw along his freaking SPINE and decide he'd rather be the only Manning that can speak without slobbering all over himself. He might play 3+ years and, like Rogers, allow the QB behind him to learn at a more natural pace. Again, nice problem to have vs. the debacle the team is at the moment. You're right, but if they go into next season with Peyton at QB, they will have had discussions with him about how long he will want to keep playing. Like you said, they won't put themselves in that position again. If he plans on being around 3-4 more years, there's no way they spend a #1 overall on Luck. That would be a slap in the face to Peyton, and they simply would not do that to him. If Peyton says he's done after next year (which nobody can say right now, but if his recovery is 100%, I seriously doubt he would say that), then okay, draft Luck. But right now, I put the odds on Indy drafting Luck (even if they do end up with the #1 overall) at about 5:1 against, unless they have some kind of trade worked out in advance. They won't draft him and have him carry a clipboard around for 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKIDKOKID Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 (edited) You're right, but if they go into next season with Peyton at QB, they will have had discussions with him about how long he will want to keep playing. Like you said, they won't put themselves in that position again. If he plans on being around 3-4 more years, there's no way they spend a #1 overall on Luck. That would be a slap in the face to Peyton, and they simply would not do that to him. If Peyton says he's done after next year (which nobody can say right now, but if his recovery is 100%, I seriously doubt he would say that), then okay, draft Luck. But right now, I put the odds on Indy drafting Luck (even if they do end up with the #1 overall) at about 5:1 against, unless they have some kind of trade worked out in advance. They won't draft him and have him carry a clipboard around for 3 years. I just don't see how this is much different than Montana/Young or Favre/Rodgers....both "carried a clipboard" for several seasons before becoming the starters. Colts will be kicking themselves for years to come if they indeed do "earn" the 1st overall pick and do not use it to take Luck. Only time will tell I suppose...and for the kind of cash Peyton will earn should he play another 3-4 years...will you can slap me like that all day and night- I would find some way to comfort myself....maybe by sleeping on my cash stuffed mattress? KO'd Edited September 26, 2011 by KOKIDKOKID Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 But can you realistically tie that much cap money into the QB position? Even with the new CBA, that's a ton of money on a team with a lot of other needs. Manning's contract is voidable and I'd venture to guess he will have them void it and rework it to be more cap friendly. they will have had discussions with him about how long he will want to keep playing. That's definitely a huge component and paired with the above should make it far more tentable to keep them both. As much as he might want to, and plan to, play for 3-4 more years the team can't take that risk. Like the Packers with Favre, at some point they are going to have to move on. It doesn't have to be this year, but I guaran-damn-tee you the Colts will see this coming and not allow themselves to get burned again. It worked out too well for the Packers not to use that as the model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Manning's contract is voidable and I'd venture to guess he will have them void it and rework it to be more cap friendly. That's definitely a huge component and paired with the above should make it far more tentable to keep them both. As much as he might want to, and plan to, play for 3-4 more years the team can't take that risk. Like the Packers with Favre, at some point they are going to have to move on. It doesn't have to be this year, but I guaran-damn-tee you the Colts will see this coming and not allow themselves to get burned again. It worked out too well for the Packers not to use that as the model. Yes, but my point is that if Peyton commits that he will play 3 more years, they will not keep Luck hanging around on the sidelines...not gonna happen. Peyton is not Favre, and Indy is not Green Bay. If they get the #1 overall, and if Peyton has commited to 3 more years, the only way they draft Luck is if they have pre-arranged plans to trade him. They are not going to have Luck looking over Peyton's shoulder like a vulture if Peyton has committed to three years. A backup better than Painter??? Damn right. The #1 overall draft pick? No way in hell, not gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Yes, but my point is that if Peyton commits that he will play 3 more years, they will not keep Luck hanging around on the sidelines...not gonna happen. Peyton is not Favre, and Indy is not Green Bay. If they get the #1 overall, and if Peyton has commited to 3 more years, the only way they draft Luck is if they have pre-arranged plans to trade him. They are not going to have Luck looking over Peyton's shoulder like a vulture if Peyton has committed to three years. A backup better than Painter??? Damn right. The #1 overall draft pick? No way in hell, not gonna happen. At the end of the day, it's all about what is good for Indy. This season reminds everyone involved that the end will come and Manning is under contract to get paid huge jack as long as they want him around. If he doesn't understand that they're better off grabbing a guy that could be great when the chance arises, well that's tough for him. Manning was just in, putting his name front and center in the lawsuit and then commanding a massive contract. I have no trouble with that. But he can't have it both ways. He showed who he was looking out for, and that's fine. But Indy needs to look out for Indy. And imagine the good fortune of riding a HOF QB for as long as they had Manning and then just go right back to the draft and get the next guy to come out as highly touted. They'd be idiots to pass that up. Like the person in the DWill thread who said the Panthers screwed him by opening the checkbook only to not feature him as the man. Excuse me? Indy owes Manning one thing and one thing only, to continue paying him according to the terms of that contract as long as they expect his services. Sure, they owe him more than likely any other pro franchise has owed it's QB, perhaps ever. And that's why they just signed him to such a massive contract this late in his career. It's a "thank you" contract. So, regardless of his bill of health, they should draft Luck and hand him a clipboard for two years, which, given the new, lower rookie contracts, they can afford to do. Then, they either trade or release Manning (assuming nobody wants to pick up that contract, which all depends on how Manning is playing in a couple of years) and move on. This is a business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 At the end of the day, it's all about what is good for Indy. This season reminds everyone involved that the end will come and Manning is under contract to get paid huge jack as long as they want him around. If he doesn't understand that they're better off grabbing a guy that could be great when the chance arises, well that's tough for him. Manning was just in, putting his name front and center in the lawsuit and then commanding a massive contract. I have no trouble with that. But he can't have it both ways. He showed who he was looking out for, and that's fine. But Indy needs to look out for Indy. And imagine the good fortune of riding a HOF QB for as long as they had Manning and then just go right back to the draft and get the next guy to come out as highly touted. They'd be idiots to pass that up. Like the person in the DWill thread who said the Panthers screwed him by opening the checkbook only to not feature him as the man. Excuse me? Indy owes Manning one thing and one thing only, to continue paying him according to the terms of that contract as long as they expect his services. Sure, they owe him more than likely any other pro franchise has owed it's QB, perhaps ever. And that's why they just signed him to such a massive contract this late in his career. It's a "thank you" contract. So, regardless of his bill of health, they should draft Luck and hand him a clipboard for two years, which, given the new, lower rookie contracts, they can afford to do. Then, they either trade or release Manning (assuming nobody wants to pick up that contract, which all depends on how Manning is playing in a couple of years) and move on. This is a business. Of course it's a business, which is exactly why they have had Curtis freakin Painter as his backup the past couple years. They're not gonna spend a lot of $$ on a QB who never sees any action. That's not changing now, and if you think they're going to draft Luck and pay him first overall pick $$ (yes, it's tempered a bit with the new regs on rookie pay, but it's still huge $$ for the #1 overall), then you're not dealing with reality. Really? You think they would leave that value on the bench for two years when they could parlay it into on-field talent? I think we've exhausted this, let's review it at next year's draft and we can see who had it right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 (edited) Of course it's a business, which is exactly why they have had Curtis freakin Painter as his backup the past couple years. They're not gonna spend a lot of $$ on a QB who never sees any action. That's not changing now, and if you think they're going to draft Luck and pay him first overall pick $$ (yes, it's tempered a bit with the new regs on rookie pay, but it's still huge $$ for the #1 overall), then you're not dealing with reality. Really? You think they would leave that value on the bench for two years when they could parlay it into on-field talent? I think we've exhausted this, let's review it at next year's draft and we can see who had it right. The thing you're neglecting is that things have changed dramatically with Manning recently, and it's far from a certainty that he even ever suits up again... It's night and day from the Manning who they banked on always starting over Painter. So yes, if Manning appears to be fully recovered and at no risk of re-aggravating/re-injuring his neck, then perhaps you bank on him being around for 3 more years, and just get a serviceable backup... But the Colts have gotten a reality check that Manning could be done at any time, so the time has probably come to start finding/grooming a successor, and there hasn't a better one than Luck since Manning. There are a lot of worse things then having the kid ride the pine while Manning helps him become Manning-like on the field, and you never do know how soon his starting tenure may begin. If this was some simple injury, then it'd be different, but my guess is they'll be taking that risk very seriously from here on out. Edited September 26, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 No way either Jax or Carolina would take Luck if they had the first overall pick. Wouldn't happen. Even for trade bait. That said, it's gonna be the Colts anyway and they WILL take him. You guys are failing to see my point. Mark my words, Andrew Luck will be the first pick in the draft. Even if it is Jax and Car that have the pick. I'm not saying that they will keep Luck, I'm just saying that they will draft him, because they will have more leverage if he's been drafted as #1 than actually trading the pick. Let's say Carolina has their eyes on the top DT in the draft. They take Luck #1 and then trade his rights to the team that drafts this DT for the DT and next years 1st. Do you get what I'm saying now? I don't think if Carolina (can't say the same for Jax just yet. HAven't seen enough of Gabbert) has the #1 pick they will draft Luck and keep him and Cam, they will simply traade Luck to the highest bidder. Don't think any team will pass on Luck just because they couldn't get a deal worked out with a team before their time was up at pick 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The thing you're neglecting is that things have changed dramatically with Manning recently, and it's far from a certainty that he even ever suits up again... It's night and day from the Manning who they banked on always starting over Painter. So yes, if Manning appears to be fully recovered and at no risk of re-aggravating/re-injuring his neck, then perhaps you bank on him being around for 3 more years, and just get a serviceable backup... But the Colts have gotten a reality check that Manning could be done at any time, so the time has probably come to start finding/grooming a successor, and there hasn't a better one than Luck since Manning. There are a lot of worse things then having the kid ride the pine while Manning helps him become Manning-like on the field, and you never do know how soon his starting tenure may begin. If this was some simple injury, then it'd be different, but my guess is they'll be taking that risk very seriously from here on out. "So yes, if Manning appears to be fully recovered and at no risk of re-aggravating/re-injuring his neck, then perhaps you bank on him being around for 3 more years, and just get a serviceable backup" Exactly what I said...read the whole thread, you're jumping in at the end. My whole premise was that IF Manning commits to three more years, they will NOT waste Luck on the bench for three years. They use the #1 pick for on-field talent. We are just beating the fu.. out of this horse here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 "So yes, if Manning appears to be fully recovered and at no risk of re-aggravating/re-injuring his neck, then perhaps you bank on him being around for 3 more years, and just get a serviceable backup" Exactly what I said...read the whole thread, you're jumping in at the end. My whole premise was that IF Manning commits to three more years, they will NOT waste Luck on the bench for three years. They use the #1 pick for on-field talent. We are just beating the fu.. out of this horse here. No, I read what all you said, and that statement was purely a hypothetical (that I don't agree with) leading into what I think is really going on... Every indication from articles and folks around here is that with this injury, there is no way you can bank on him playing another 3 years. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Luck is widley considered the greatest QB prospect of all time. You don't pass on that at #1 regardless of your situation. That's not to say you don't trade him after you draft him, but he WILL be the #1 pick, unless he gets hurt or just sucks it up for the remainder of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 You guys are failing to see my point. Mark my words, Andrew Luck will be the first pick in the draft. Even if it is Jax and Car that have the pick. I'm not saying that they will keep Luck, I'm just saying that they will draft him, because they will have more leverage if he's been drafted as #1 than actually trading the pick. Let's say Carolina has their eyes on the top DT in the draft. They take Luck #1 and then trade his rights to the team that drafts this DT for the DT and next years 1st. I disagree. Luck's greatest value will be the 5 minutes before that pick is due to be turned in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 I disagree. Luck's greatest value will be the 5 minutes before that pick is due to be turned in. So will that be 95% Luck or 5% Luck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 You guys are failing to see my point. Mark my words, Andrew Luck will be the first pick in the draft. Even if it is Jax and Car that have the pick. I'm not saying that they will keep Luck, I'm just saying that they will draft him, because they will have more leverage if he's been drafted as #1 than actually trading the pick. Let's say Carolina has their eyes on the top DT in the draft. They take Luck #1 and then trade his rights to the team that drafts this DT for the DT and next years 1st. Do you get what I'm saying now? I don't think if Carolina (can't say the same for Jax just yet. HAven't seen enough of Gabbert) has the #1 pick they will draft Luck and keep him and Cam, they will simply traade Luck to the highest bidder. Don't think any team will pass on Luck just because they couldn't get a deal worked out with a team before their time was up at pick 1. I think if a team like STL, JAX, or CAR ended up with the No. 1 pick, didn't want Luck for themselves, and failed to trade the rights to the No. 1 pick, I don't think they then go ahead and draft Luck. If they can't get a deal done before the pick who is to say they will after the pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankerboy Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 The team that has the #1 pick has much more leverage before he's drafted than after. Before he's drafted, there's a countdown...a clock...where teams in the bidding know that the pick is likely to be traded and if they don't pony up...it won't be with them. After he's selected, the team that drafted him is on the clock and feeling the pressure. (assuming they have no need for a qb per this discussion) Now they have have the signing deadline looming and the perception is that they have to trade him. The leverage completely flips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RattlerB Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Indy's first pick will be an Offensive Lineman, unless a super stud LB is out there This. They need someone to keep Peyton from getting flattened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 So will that be 95% Luck or 5% Luck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerLeagueQB Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Serious question, what' so good about Luck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Indy's first pick will be an Offensive Lineman, unless a super stud LB is out there I don't think they would use the pick in that slot, it will be worth so much they would trade it out for somebody's 1st, 3rd, 5th in 2012, 2nd & 4th in 2013, first born in 2014/15, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 (edited) If Luck still appears to be as great by season's end as he does now, the Colts (if indeed they do have that pick) WILL take Luck unless (possibly) somebody offers them an unbelievable offer to trade out of that spot. Even if Manning does "commit" to the next 3 years, that doesn't mean squat considering the fact that he is now old and one more injury to his neck from being permanently retired. And on the chance that he does stay healthy for those years, what would be the best thing to do? Hmm..."waste" Luck by having him sit on the bench and learn the NFL game (what he doesn't already know) from one of the greatest qbs of all time for 3 years and assure that the team will have an equally if not greater quarterback (scary thought, isn't it?) for the following 10-15 years, or use the pick on some lineman or other position who may or may not be an impact player now and/or in the future? Edited September 27, 2011 by Crazysight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 The team that has the #1 pick has much more leverage before he's drafted than after. Before he's drafted, there's a countdown...a clock...where teams in the bidding know that the pick is likely to be traded and if they don't pony up...it won't be with them. After he's selected, the team that drafted him is on the clock and feeling the pressure. (assuming they have no need for a qb per this discussion) Now they have have the signing deadline looming and the perception is that they have to trade him. The leverage completely flips. This Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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