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Loogie's Week 15, ThursdayNight ATS predictification


LooGie
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So, its beloved Thursday Night Football again. And once again, the schedule makers at NFL screwed themselves out of a game that anyone cares about.

 

Well, I care a little.

 

See, coming into this week, I'm finally above .500 ATS on Thursdays. in fact, I'd be 1.000 were it not my drunken, turkey induced stupidity that bubbled forth and found it's way into my thanksgiving picks. I could make a case that Thanksgiving doesn't count towards TNF, and thus be batting a respectable 4-0 on Thursday Night Football, but I won't do that. Mostly because you wouldn't let me. Also, I'm too lazy to argue the point.

 

I'll take my 3 little losses on Thanksgiving. I'll blame the cheap booze while doing it..but I'll do it.

 

that puts my TNF* (yup, I'll still asterick it though. It's my thread. Shut up) record at 4-3 ATS.

 

 

Tonight, we got the interim coached, and complete terrible Jaguars coming to the amazingly mediocre Atlanta Falcons.

 

I called a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week for the Falcons, and i was nearly correct. Were it not for the fact that the Panthers defense is the best aspect of any opponents team, I would've been right.

 

At any rate, the Falcons are still in the playoff hunt, but that's never stopped them from folding like a lawn chair before. I dont know why it would now. The Jags offense are a special kind of awful though. Nearly as awful as the Colts offense..and the Colts defense...and/or the Colts special teams.

 

The jags defense though is pretty good..nasty even. In a good way. Not in a Loogie's pr0n collection sorta "nasty good" way, either. Just flat out, good.

 

Both teams are in the same boat this week. Short week, and nice wins over terrible NFC South teams.

 

the fact that Atlanta is favored by 2 TDs is almost laughable to me . Hell, with the re-ignition of the Jags "give-a-damn" after Del Rio's firing, I wouldn't be surprised if Jax outright wins. I can't pull the trigger on that, but I sure as hell ain't giving the Falcons 14 points. Jax averages 15 ppg and ATL 23. That means ATL needs to score at least 30 points against JAX defense..or count on their defense to hold JAX to 9 points. Granted, holding Jax to 9 points is probably easier than just about anything else in this world, including ex girlfriends, I still can't rely on ATL outscoring JAX by that much, considering they only managed to put up 10 points against an only slightly better HOU defense.

 

 

JAX 16

ATL 23

Take the points.

 

note: Every part of me wants to cash in the +700 ML bet on the Jags. I couuld very easily see JAX 21, ATL 20. I very nearly called the upset here, but I figured I need to have a reason and stats to back up my upsets, otherwise I'm like majority of the upset pickers here, just flapping gums.

 

At least when I predicted the TNF Seattle upset, I had trap game stats to back it up. On this one I got nothing, but you can bet I'll have a nice $10 on the JAGS ML JUST in case.

 

RESULT: A BIG FAT LOOGIE LOSS

ATL 41, JAX 14

Edited by LooGie
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I called a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week for the Falcons, and i was nearly correct. Were it not for the fact that the Panthers defense is the best aspect of any opponents team, I would've been right.

Your bias is showing, and you shouldn't be betting on a game if your going to look at it like a blind homer.

 

Are you really going to put it all on the defense that helped give CAR a big lead in the first half, and give no credit to Ryan torching you for 3 more TDs after they forced them to abandon their bread-and-butter in the running game (which is normally what Carolina struggles to stop. The Falcons did it without even having to rely on their biggest weakness). Not to mention the Falcons made "Superman" look like a mistake-prone rookie in the second half.

 

I'll admit that the Falcons played terrible in the first half with Carolina playing very well, but it wasn't just a matter of the defense falling apart... That "mediocre" Atlanta team came to play ball in the second half, and didn't let Cam anywhere near the endzone (or I should clarify, the endzone they were going for :wacko:) after a 24 point first half.

 

As for this game, I'm always one to jump on a double-digit dog in a night game, but for every spread like that that's too inflated, there's a game where the spread was actually very conservative... And I'm not sure you can call JAX reignited, just because they worked over the Bucs like everyone has this year. This will be a much tougher test for a struggling team, with Atlanta being good against their one offensive strength running the ball, and the loss of Grimes being counteracted by guys stepping up and facing a rookie QB.

 

Atlanta has been two-faced this year and the O-line could continue to slow them down, but I just don't see Jacksonville coming close to matching them in points in the Dome, where the Falcons have an outstanding record.

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This game was at 11.5 on Tuesday morning when I looked and that was borderline too much then. I'm looking now and it's 13.5. Makes me wonder if there's ever been a team coming off a 27 point victory listed as a double-digit underdog the following game?

 

I'll probably stay off this one, but I'm thinking it's a 21-10 kind of game on paper. The under 40.5 seems like the most attractive play.

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