LooGie Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 (edited) So, its beloved Thursday Night Football again. And once again, the schedule makers at NFL screwed themselves out of a game that anyone cares about. Well, I care a little. See, coming into this week, I'm finally above .500 ATS on Thursdays. in fact, I'd be 1.000 were it not my drunken, turkey induced stupidity that bubbled forth and found it's way into my thanksgiving picks. I could make a case that Thanksgiving doesn't count towards TNF, and thus be batting a respectable 4-0 on Thursday Night Football, but I won't do that. Mostly because you wouldn't let me. Also, I'm too lazy to argue the point. I'll take my 3 little losses on Thanksgiving. I'll blame the cheap booze while doing it..but I'll do it. that puts my TNF* (yup, I'll still asterick it though. It's my thread. Shut up) record at 4-3 ATS. Tonight, we got the interim coached, and complete terrible Jaguars coming to the amazingly mediocre Atlanta Falcons. I called a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week for the Falcons, and i was nearly correct. Were it not for the fact that the Panthers defense is the best aspect of any opponents team, I would've been right. At any rate, the Falcons are still in the playoff hunt, but that's never stopped them from folding like a lawn chair before. I dont know why it would now. The Jags offense are a special kind of awful though. Nearly as awful as the Colts offense..and the Colts defense...and/or the Colts special teams. The jags defense though is pretty good..nasty even. In a good way. Not in a Loogie's pr0n collection sorta "nasty good" way, either. Just flat out, good. Both teams are in the same boat this week. Short week, and nice wins over terrible NFC South teams. the fact that Atlanta is favored by 2 TDs is almost laughable to me . Hell, with the re-ignition of the Jags "give-a-damn" after Del Rio's firing, I wouldn't be surprised if Jax outright wins. I can't pull the trigger on that, but I sure as hell ain't giving the Falcons 14 points. Jax averages 15 ppg and ATL 23. That means ATL needs to score at least 30 points against JAX defense..or count on their defense to hold JAX to 9 points. Granted, holding Jax to 9 points is probably easier than just about anything else in this world, including ex girlfriends, I still can't rely on ATL outscoring JAX by that much, considering they only managed to put up 10 points against an only slightly better HOU defense. JAX 16 ATL 23 Take the points. note: Every part of me wants to cash in the +700 ML bet on the Jags. I couuld very easily see JAX 21, ATL 20. I very nearly called the upset here, but I figured I need to have a reason and stats to back up my upsets, otherwise I'm like majority of the upset pickers here, just flapping gums. At least when I predicted the TNF Seattle upset, I had trap game stats to back it up. On this one I got nothing, but you can bet I'll have a nice $10 on the JAGS ML JUST in case. RESULT: A BIG FAT LOOGIE LOSS ATL 41, JAX 14 Edited December 16, 2011 by LooGie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I called a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week for the Falcons, and i was nearly correct. Were it not for the fact that the Panthers defense is the best aspect of any opponents team, I would've been right. Your bias is showing, and you shouldn't be betting on a game if your going to look at it like a blind homer. Are you really going to put it all on the defense that helped give CAR a big lead in the first half, and give no credit to Ryan torching you for 3 more TDs after they forced them to abandon their bread-and-butter in the running game (which is normally what Carolina struggles to stop. The Falcons did it without even having to rely on their biggest weakness). Not to mention the Falcons made "Superman" look like a mistake-prone rookie in the second half. I'll admit that the Falcons played terrible in the first half with Carolina playing very well, but it wasn't just a matter of the defense falling apart... That "mediocre" Atlanta team came to play ball in the second half, and didn't let Cam anywhere near the endzone (or I should clarify, the endzone they were going for ) after a 24 point first half. As for this game, I'm always one to jump on a double-digit dog in a night game, but for every spread like that that's too inflated, there's a game where the spread was actually very conservative... And I'm not sure you can call JAX reignited, just because they worked over the Bucs like everyone has this year. This will be a much tougher test for a struggling team, with Atlanta being good against their one offensive strength running the ball, and the loss of Grimes being counteracted by guys stepping up and facing a rookie QB. Atlanta has been two-faced this year and the O-line could continue to slow them down, but I just don't see Jacksonville coming close to matching them in points in the Dome, where the Falcons have an outstanding record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I am too scared to go either way. I think the Falcons try to run alot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonedaddies Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I am too scared to go either way. Yeah..you should ease into that, maybe have a drink or two first Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 This game was at 11.5 on Tuesday morning when I looked and that was borderline too much then. I'm looking now and it's 13.5. Makes me wonder if there's ever been a team coming off a 27 point victory listed as a double-digit underdog the following game? I'll probably stay off this one, but I'm thinking it's a 21-10 kind of game on paper. The under 40.5 seems like the most attractive play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboyGal2011 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Jax is starting WR's and cornerbacks you've never heard of, I see no way they keep it close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I would like to see plenty of Roddy White & Michael Turner and not so much of Jones-Drew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Yeah, the under has been the play on Thursday nights. Most of the the games have been clunkers. Too lazy to look up the 'facts', but hey, I never let them get in the way of my opinions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Going Falcons -8 (1h). I'm thinking 13-3 at the half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tally Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Jax is playing it's 3rd game in 11 days... I would tread carefully with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
major-tom Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Going Falcons -8 (1h). I'm thinking 13-3 at the half. Looking good there, meanwhile our thread starter may want to think about "Leaving Las Vegas" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Looking good there, meanwhile our thread starter may want to think about "Leaving Las Vegas" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 lulz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 (edited) Ya shoulda given the points Edited December 16, 2011 by SEC=UGA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LooGie Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Good grief, that was an a$$ whuppin..for both me and JAX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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