DMD

Do you consider the playoff schedule?

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DMD    331

Granted, it is 14 weeks into the season (generally) and lots could happen by then. But you already know what the schedule is so do you consider it at all when drafting? Some notables from weeks 14 to 16:

 

 

Bad

 

Ryan Matthews and Philip Rivers - @PIT, CAR and @NYJ

 

Ahmad Bradshaw - NO, @ATL and @BAL

 

Pierre Garcon - BAL, @CLE and @PHI

 

Good

 

Matt Ryan - @CAR, NYG and @DET

 

Darren McFadden - DEN, KC and @CAR

 

Brandon Marshall - @MIN, GB and @ARI

 

You have to win every week in the playoffs to advance - do you consider the schedule at draft time? There is much Ryan Matthews love but when you need him most, he has @PIT and @NYJ? That is tough...

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Papajohn    246

I haven't paid much attention to it in the past and probably won't this year either. So much can change between and during the seasons, that makes it almost impossible to predict the impact in the playoffs. Everything can happen if you reacg the playoffs, but not much can happen if you don't.

Even though Steelers against the run and Darelle Revis on you WR1 is about as constant as it gets, it will not be a huge factor in my draft strategy.

 

Before the trade deadline last season I tried to trade for a RB3/Flex with and easy schedule in the playoffs, so in-season with more information it is something that I am aware of.

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tazinib1    897

I have a hard enough time just making the playoffs. Taking the playoff schedule into account during the draft is the furthest thing from my mind.

 

:kicksrock:

Edited by tazinib1

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Avernus    198

I try to break the season down into sections...there are players that I draft based on pure ability, others by schedule when it gets to the later rounds and then I use the number of primetime games as a tie-breaker in some cases because "everyone is watching"....

 

when the season gets halfway through or even before that, I try to evaluate the team that I have and what moves I should make based on the upcoming stretch and that is where I really look at the schedule because things never go how I expect them to go completely prior to the season, so there I consider variable change and tweak my roster accordingly by hopefully selling high and buying low on a player with a nice upcoming schedule....

 

all in all, I only use schedule as a tie-breaker during the draft when I have a couple of players I am considering because...as I said, there are a lot of teams that I just get it wrong about as far as who might be a "good" or "bad" matchup....but I find the primetime appearances to be a decent tool also when I am kinda stumped....

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Avernus    198

I have a hard enough time just making the playoffs. Taking the playoff schedule into account during the draft is the furthest thing from my mind.

 

:kicksrock:

 

I think that looking at the playoffs during the draft is foolish anyways....after injuries and other unforseen explosions, you will find yourself to be wrong more than right when you are talking 2-3 months down the line in football...

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LordOpie    1,370

only papajohn mentioned trading. imo,you need to trade to win. playoffs dont matter when drafting. i consider them about week 5-6 when you can make some good deals with teams who need to win-now.

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Playoff schedule is a great tiebreaker when needing to decide between two players that one feels are equal in value...that's about it.

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It is one of my main considerations for picking a Team D/ST but rarely for any other position.

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Bronco Billy    209

[Jim Mora] "Playoffs?! You're talkin about playoffs??? Playoffs?! You kiddin me? Playoffs?!". [/Jim Mora]

 

I agree with Taz. The league I play in are so damned competitive that I'm just looking at getting in.

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Ice1    7

Playoff schedule is a great tiebreaker when needing to decide between two players that one feels are equal in value...that's about it.

 

 

This

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buddahj    221

With my early picks, I do take playoff schedules into account when deciding who to draft. It's just one of many factors that I use to make my decision on who to take.

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kpholmes    8

While I might glance at the playoff schedule with my earlier draft picks, I don't give it much weight. Far too much can happen in 13 weeks - for both individual players, and teams as a whole.

 

From a dynasty standpoint, which is all of my leagues but two, I will rarely if ever trade my starters away based on their playoff schedule that season.

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flemingd    786

I don't consider SoS of playoffs during the draft, no. What I do take into account is weather. I tend to avoid cold-weather schedules for my QB and WR's/TE's, and I put it together very similarly to the Huddle's SoS system - Dome, Low Risk, High Risk. Low Risk is any outdoor stadium below the 38th parallel and High Risk is any outdoor stadium north of it, with risk weighted heavier for the later games.

 

I won't draft Alex Smith over Rodgers straight up obviously, but it might be the deciding factor of whether to go QB/RB/RB or RB/RB/QB. I treat it like a tie-breaker. I'll take (2010) Manning over Rodgers because I know he's throwing inside or in Florida in December and not the frozen tundra or freezing sideways-blowing rain. This year is a good example, at #4 I'm taking Calvin Johnson over Rodgers with week 15 in Arizona and week 16 under a roof while Rodgers is home/@CHI/home - that's a whole lot of risk. Pressed to take a QB I would take Brees over either Brady or Rodgers - @NYG/dome/dome carries much less risk.

 

Risk mitigation is the key. Obviously you don't know what's going to happen, but there is a much higher likelihood of Jennings getting shut out on the frozen tundra than Steve Smith will in Carolina.

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ajh2    24

I agree with Bostonsoxandy and Ice1. I use it to break ties for players and for picking potential late season studs (think C.J. Spiller and R. Bush) for one game shots. But to use it as a major factor when drafting at the beginning of the year, nope.

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Since I've been drinking the R. Matthews kool aid, his playoff SOS has me a little worried. I understand why some people don't consider SOS when drafting, but when you are talking about your #1 pick and the cornerstone of your team, I thnk it's something you have to take into consideration.

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only papajohn mentioned trading. imo,you need to trade to win. playoffs dont matter when drafting. i consider them about week 5-6 when you can make some good deals with teams who need to win-now.

 

Or you might end up being that team that just needs to win now, or risk missing the playoffs entirely.

 

So yeah, pretty much that. Maybe if all else was truly equal, but how often are two players ever truly equal in your eyes that their projected playoff SoS in the preseason is enough to sway you (aside from rare ones like WRs going up against Revis in the playoffs or twice in division, which might well sway me in another direction).

 

The season and injuries can change alot (e.g., will the Baltimore D be dominant without Suggs?), so I'm gonna stick my draft plan of talent + situation and a good mix of safe/consistent and risk/reward players.

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LordOpie    1,370

Since I've been drinking the R. Matthews kool aid, his playoff SOS has me a little worried. I understand why some people don't consider SOS when drafting, but when you are talking about your #1 pick and the cornerstone of your team, I thnk it's something you have to take into consideration.

 

 

Draft him if you want and then trade him for Calvin in week 6. Then trade one of your other good WRs for a RB with a more favorable playoff schedule.

 

 

Or you might end up being that team that just needs to win now, or risk missing the playoffs entirely.

 

I assume you're talking about WashD :D

 

...but how often are two players ever truly equal...

yup

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gilthorp    988

No.

 

Week 1 D/ST doesn't always equate to a Week 14 D/ST. It's more hassle than it's worth.

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DMD    331

Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially.

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tazinib1    897

Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially.

 

 

All the more reason to own Mathews and Gates IMO.

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flemingd    786

Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially.

 

Yes, in my system above, SD's schedule is heavily concerning. I won't own many Chargers this year.

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Normally, I do not, but it depends on the league. In most competitive leagues, making the playoffs in the first place is a battle. In a local friends league where making the playoffs is almost assured, I definitely consider it.

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TheCommish    1

Ryan Mathews, if healthy, will be fine. I'm a Steelers fan, and I have no stats to back this up, but I believe RBs who are capable receivers still do well against Pittsburgh. They are stout against the run-only guys like Michael Turner and Cedric Benson, but players like Ray Rice and Arian Foster still put up good numbers against them. And Mathews has a good QB that can take advantage of that.

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godtomsatan    26

The only thing on a players schedule to consider when drafting is a bye week.

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