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NFCCG: SF @ Atl


Bier Meister
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random thoughts:

 

i certainly believe atl is a very good team, i just don't think they will win this weekend against a stronger sf team. in terms of philosophy, sea and sf are similar, but sf has more sophisticated run schemes, and are more well rounded on defense. i firmly believe that atl will not be effective running the ball. same thing i said about the sea/atl match up... i think jones, white, gonzo are a heck of a combo, but the 9ers have had success against pass oriented teams this year (gb twice, nos, det, nep). i don't think sf will be able to contain all 3, so i believe they aught to aim to lockdown jones/white and give up the middle to gonzo.... try to take away the big play wr's. the 9ers may have the best front 7 in the game... ryan will get more pressure.

 

offensively, i think the 9ers still goes through gore/james. they set the tone for play action and the run option. if the d plays contain on kap, gore/james are going to get large chunks of yards. if they try to suffocate the inside running game, kap could be hugh again....plus kap can pass accurately.

 

the x factor imo is kap. the guy shined on sat. fine...he set a single game record for rushing yards by a qb. good for him. i think that will look more like 60-70 this week, but atl's lb's are going to go to have fits trying to figure out whether to stay on man or in their zone, or commit to tackling him in the open. the main concerns i still have about him is game management (especially on the road). can he throw the ball away and not take those deep sacks/throw picks can he get those plays off in time and not burn time outs or take delay penalties? he is playing at an extremely high level for only starting 8 games, but we still saw some of this in weeks 16 and 17.

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When I think about this game, I keep bringing up to myself the stats Detlef brought up. Cam Newton had 2 of his best games against the Falcons. 6tds total and I believe 200+ yards rushing.

 

Carolina also got held to a lot of field goals, even though the Falcons offense didn't show up until the second half and left the defense on the field all game in the second matchup, and they forced a crucial fumble from him in the first game on a play that would have sealed the game. It's what Nolan's defense does.

 

They also shut down RG3, Vick, and Wilson for 3 quarters.

 

And what happened the last time Kaepernick played in a big game in a hostile loud environment and the run game got taken away? They got romped by the Seahawks. The Dome actually registered even louder last weekend, 117 decibels, so we'll see if the kid with half the amount of starts of the rookie QBs can handle the pressure and noise.

 

The Falcons players, after studying him say that he's pretty much a one-read-and-run QB, unlike Wilson who went through his reads, and while he's faster, he doesn't have the escapability like Wilson does to really break the play down. He'll have to deal with containment that was otherwise effective versus Wilson when he couldn't escape.

 

And although everyone talks about this vaunted Niner D, they've been letting up something like 30 points a game lately, and didn't have that much of a pass-rush against the Packers from what I could see. They need Justin Smith as much as the Falcons need Abraham (note that the Seahawks only came back after Abe left the game, same with the Pats versus Niners after Smith went out I believe), but Justin Smith isn't going to be near 100% with a partial tear.

 

But the Falcons offense and defense can't go soft like they have too many times this year after taking the lead. Really they seem to do better making half-time adjustments when playing from behind, but gotta play 4 quarters this week.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic that the Falcons have a great chance of defending the Dome along with the 12th man.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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I would not be surprised if ATL or SF won. I think its a difficult game to pick. To acknowledge that a rookie QB with a half dozen games under his belt is heading to Atlana to take on a team that won 13 games speaks volumes about the SF QB and the team itself.

Justin Smith and Abraham are key, but the X factors to me are Matt Ryan and Kaepernick. If one plays lights out and the other one folds, I would be hard pressed to think the rest of the team could make up the difference. If they play equal to each other, it will be one hell of a game.

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I would not be surprised if ATL or SF won. I think its a difficult game to pick. To acknowledge that a rookie QB with a half dozen games under his belt is heading to Atlana to take on a team that won 13 games speaks volumes about the SF QB and the team itself.

Justin Smith and Abraham are key, but the X factors to me are Matt Ryan and Kaepernick. If one plays lights out and the other one folds, I would be hard pressed to think the rest of the team could make up the difference. If they play equal to each other, it will be one hell of a game.

 

 

Nice avy, is that a Blues Jr? I still mutter about having to sell mine.

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And although everyone talks about this vaunted Niner D, they've been letting up something like 30 points a game lately, and didn't have that much of a pass-rush against the Packers from what I could see. They need Justin Smith as much as the Falcons need Abraham (note that the Seahawks only came back after Abe left the game, same with the Pats versus Niners after Smith went out I believe), but Justin Smith isn't going to be near 100% with a partial tear.

 

But the Falcons offense and defense can't go soft like they have too many times this year after taking the lead. Really they seem to do better making half-time adjustments when playing from behind, but gotta play 4 quarters this week.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic that the Falcons have a great chance of defending the Dome along with the 12th man.

 

 

3 of the last 4 games the 49ers have allowed 30 or more. 1 was to sea in a blowout where the 9ers could do nothing right starting from teh opening kickoff. the other two were to brady and rodgers where both qb's were playing from behind in the 2nd half. 7 of those pts vs gb were from a n early pick six. while not compiling many sacks, the 9ers had significant pressure on rodgers..enough at least to disrupt him (1 int- with no pressure; 1 fumble...and he should have had a couple of more picks). ryan is less mobile than rodgers...9ers may get more sacks.

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3 of the last 4 games the 49ers have allowed 30 or more. 1 was to sea in a blowout where the 9ers could do nothing right starting from teh opening kickoff. the other two were to brady and rodgers where both qb's were playing from behind in the 2nd half. 7 of those pts vs gb were from a n early pick six. while not compiling many sacks, the 9ers had significant pressure on rodgers..enough at least to disrupt him (1 int- with no pressure; 1 fumble...and he should have had a couple of more picks). ryan is less mobile than rodgers...9ers may get more sacks.

 

 

True, I will not discount the threat of the pass-rush, which is by far the best way to shut down the Falcons passing attack and make Ryan make mistakes. Because if you give him time, Ryan can pick you apart finding the single-covered and open guys.

 

However, Ryan's been among the least sacked and has gotten the ball out quickly, despite a very inconsistent O-line (though they come off by far their best game of the season, but this will be a different defense than the Seahawks without Clemons, which turned out to be a big loss).

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True, I will not discount the threat of the pass-rush, which is by far the best way to shut down the Falcons passing attack and make Ryan make mistakes. Because if you give him time, Ryan can pick you apart finding the single-covered and open guys.

 

However, Ryan's been among the least sacked and has gotten the ball out quickly, despite a very inconsistent O-line (though they come off by far their best game of the season, but this will be a different defense than the Seahawks without Clemons, which turned out to be a big loss).

 

 

all true. i'd love to trade our two qb's for ryan.

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One more thing RE: the pass rush is that the Falcons have neutralized that and a lack of consistent running game with the most effective screen game in the NFL, not jsut with backs but with recievers, a big change from one of the worst under Mularkey.

 

I'd expect to see a return of that on Sunday, as well as more no-huddle that they've been holding back on all year.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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One more thing RE: the pass rush is that the Falcons have neutralized that and a lack of consistent running game with the most effective screen game in the NFL, not jsut with backs but with recievers, a big change from one of the worst under Mularkey.

 

I'd expect to see a return of that on Sunday, as well as more no-huddle that they've been holding back on all year.

 

 

against who?

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against who?

 

I guess I should have said combatted or took advantage of the pass rush, because it was effective:

 

 

 

Screen game clicked for Falcons- ESPN NFC South Blog

 

As Atlanta offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter interviews for jobs as a head coach , it’s time to take a look at one of the most significant wrinkles he brought to the Falcons.

 

That’s the screen-passing game. Predecessor Mike Mularkey rarely used the screen in his four seasons with the Falcons, but Koetter made it a staple this season.

 

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Matt Ryan attempted 67 screen passes. Only Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (78) had more screen attempts. Ryan completed 60 of those screens for 483 yards, which ranked behind only Fitzpatrick (534) and New England's Tom Brady (491).

 

But the most significant stat is that Ryan had a league-high six touchdown passes of screens. Ryan did not have a screen pass go for a touchdown in either of the previous two seasons.

 

Carolina’s Cam Newton was second with four and Fitzpatrick was third with three. No other quarterback had more than two touchdowns on screens.

 

Newton had reasonable success with the screen. He completed 37 of 51 attempts for 410 yards, which ranked fourth in the NFL.

 

The other two NFC South teams didn’t have a lot of success with screen passing.

 

New Orleans’ Drew Brees completed 40 of 53 attempts for 351 yards with just one touchdown. Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman completed 28 of 39 attempts for 281 yards and one touchdown.

 

 

Though I don't think it caused them to let up much with the pass rush, because while Ryan's sack stats are impressive, it's no secret that the pass rush is the best way to stop him.

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Nice avy, is that a Blues Jr? I still mutter about having to sell mine.

 

 

It's a Blues Junior alright. I can't believe you had one and let it go!

There's nothing like cranking the volume all the way up on that thing and turning the master volume down to a level that won't make your ears bleed. I have a couple nice amps but that thing does tube overdriven harmonics better than all of them.

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I guess I should have said combatted or took advantage of the pass rush, because it was effective:

 

 

 

Though I don't think it caused them to let up much with the pass rush, because while Ryan's sack stats are impressive, it's no secret that the pass rush is the best way to stop him.

 

 

while ryan doesn't take a lot of sacks, i see some ints and qb hits over the past 5-6 games.

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while ryan doesn't take a lot of sacks, i see some ints and qb hits over the past 5-6 games.

 

 

Bingo, it was the reason for his worst career game against Arizona, almost losing at Carolina the first time, and IIRC just coming up short against the Saints the first time, though he did come back to put up some points in even some of his worst games.

 

O-line will be key, also for the running game who looked like they switched spamshirts with Marshawn Lynch on Sunday, but getting consistent play from them is definitely a concern.

 

Though a plus for Turner is that I've been told the Niners struggle a little more with big bruising backs.

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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Going to be a good game, I hope both teams play well so we don't have a lopsided game or a lot of "you only won because we played poorly" BS. Agree that its nearly a push, either team could win. I guess I give ATL a slight edge with home field and some more experienced players, especially at QB.

 

One has to wonder, does SF ever use Vernon Davis much again. Seems to have totally disappeared from that offense, heck Walker seems to have a bigger role now.

 

No favorite here, and whoever wins will be the team I root for in the SB.

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Carolina also got held to a lot of field goals, even though the Falcons offense didn't show up until the second half and left the defense on the field all game in the second matchup, and they forced a crucial fumble from him in the first game on a play that would have sealed the game. It's what Nolan's defense does.

 

They also shut down RG3, Vick, and Wilson for 3 quarters.

 

Way to find the silver lining.

 

Dude, Carolina, a team that ranked 18 in scoring at 22.3 pts per game dropped a combined 58 pts (a pace that would have made them 3rd in the league). They actually scored 4 TDs and zero FGs in the match-up at ATL and, yes, kicked 3 FGs to go along with their 3 TDs in a 10 pt victory (that was a 17 pt lead going into the final minute).

 

I guess if I were demanding more respect for my team, I wouldn't take moral victories for making a sub-par team kick 3 FGs in a game that they also scored 3 TDs and beat us handily.

 

Then again, that's just me.

 

And, sure, they held three small but mobile QBs in check. But they also let the one QB they played that really resembles Kaeperneck in stature and style of play have two of his most impressive games of the season. Including one during a stretch where he was otherwise pretty bad.

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Way to find the silver lining.

 

Dude, Carolina, a team that ranked 18 in scoring at 22.3 pts per game dropped a combined 58 pts (a pace that would have made them 3rd in the league). They actually scored 4 TDs and zero FGs in the match-up at ATL and, yes, kicked 3 FGs to go along with their 3 TDs in a 10 pt victory (that was a 17 pt lead going into the final minute).

 

I guess if I were demanding more respect for my team, I wouldn't take moral victories for making a sub-par team kick 3 FGs in a game that they also scored 3 TDs and beat us handily.

 

Then again, that's just me.

 

And, sure, they held three small but mobile QBs in check. But they also let the one QB they played that really resembles Kaeperneck in stature and style of play have two of his most impressive games of the season. Including one during a stretch where he was otherwise pretty bad.

 

 

Look, I'm not denying that Cam gave the Falcons problems (though you shouldn't deny that him playing his divisional rivals seemed to light a fire under his ass either), but that even in those tough games, in the first game they caused a crucial fumble on a play that would have won Carolina the game but gave Ryan enough time to come back, and in the second game forced field goals when they should have blown that game wide open by half-time. If the Falcons offense shows up before then and doesn't leave the defense on the field, that game is much closer and Cam doesn't have so many chances... So yes, I think that's a silver lining that Nolan's defense bends but doesn't break to force field goals and crucial turnovers, and frankly I'm not ready to say yet that Kaepernick is Cam Newton on a good passing day. You're right it's tough when they're beating with their arm and can with their legs too, but I don't know that Kaepernick is going to make them fear the passing game nearly as much.

 

You could also look at the problems the Falcons gave Cam last year as a rookie with essentially the same unit, but worse coordinator and more complete year for Cam:

 

(Final score 31-17): 21/32 - 237 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 7/47 rushing, 1 TD

 

(Final score 31-23): 19/39 - 276 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 7/36 rushing

 

So we have an average of 250 yards, 1.5TD to 2.5INTs, and about 40 yards rushing. Yes dual-threat QBs can be tough, but it isn't like they're the Falcons kryptonite after shutting down other ones. Rather I think (no I know) that beating the Falcons was personal for the Panthers and Cam, especially after coming up short the first time this year and facing a lot of scrutiny over it.

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Look, I'm not denying that Cam gave the Falcons problems (though you shouldn't deny that him playing his divisional rivals seemed to light a fire under his ass either), but that even in those tough games, in the first game they caused a crucial fumble on a play that would have won Carolina the game but gave Ryan enough time to come back, and in the second game forced field goals when they should have blown that game wide open by half-time. If the Falcons offense shows up before then and doesn't leave the defense on the field, that game is much closer and Cam doesn't have so many chances... So yes, I think that's a silver lining that Nolan's defense bends but doesn't break to force field goals and crucial turnovers, and frankly I'm not ready to say yet that Kaepernick is Cam Newton on a good passing day. You're right it's tough when they're beating with their arm and can with their legs too, but I don't know that Kaepernick is going to make them fear the passing game nearly as much.

 

You could also look at the problems the Falcons gave Cam last year as a rookie with essentially the same unit, but worse coordinator and more complete year for Cam:

 

(Final score 31-17): 21/32 - 237 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 7/47 rushing, 1 TD

 

(Final score 31-23): 19/39 - 276 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 7/36 rushing

 

So we have an average of 250 yards, 1.5TD to 2.5INTs, and about 40 yards rushing. Yes dual-threat QBs can be tough, but it isn't like they're the Falcons kryptonite after shutting down other ones. Rather I think (no I know) that beating the Falcons was personal for the Panthers and Cam, especially after coming up short the first time this year and facing a lot of scrutiny over it.

 

For the record, K's average per attempt and QBR are both higher than Newton's. Newton has 19 passing TDs in 16 starts, K has 12 in 8. Newton has 12 picks in 16 games, K had 4 in 8. K has a higher completion percentage. The only passing stat I could find that Newton was better than K this season was yards per game where he had 8 more (a total nearly off-set by K's 6 more rushing yards per game in the 8 games he started).
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For the record, K's average per attempt and QBR are both higher than Newton's. Newton has 19 passing TDs in 16 starts, K has 12 in 8. Newton has 12 picks in 16 games, K had 4 in 8. K has a higher completion percentage. The only passing stat I could find that Newton was better than K this season was yards per game where he had 8 more (a total nearly off-set by K's 6 more rushing yards per game in the 8 games he started).

 

 

QBR? You mean that BS system that ESPN created to make Tebow look like a good QB?

 

I'm not sure that his yards per attempt being better than Newton means alot, when he's barely cracked 250 yards only twice and his completion percentage has settled around 50% in the last 4 games, even though outside of the Green Bay game he hasn't been making up for that yardage with his legs either.

 

The New England game was about the only one he's really impressed me as a passer (though after watching the highlights, I'd attribute it just as much to the defense setting them up with good field position, and Crabtree making a big move at the end).

 

Let's not forget fumbles either, which makes for 12 turnovers to 10 TDs.

 

Not saying Kaepernick can't have a great day against the Falcons, but you have to admit that he still has a lot to learn about being an NFL QB and pressure situations like he'll face Sunday. We'll see if he's ready...

Edited by delusions of grandeur
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Just saw this really good unbiased article that thinks the Niners pull it out, but highlights concerns for both teams. The whole article is worth a read, but I thought the part below was interesting:

 

NFC Championship Preview

 

And if there's any place the 49ers have truly improved with Kaepernick at the helm, it's been in the red zone, where his ever-present running threat and athleticism have stretched teams to the bri—

 

Sorry, had you going there for a second. Did you know that the 49ers are actually significantly worse in the red zone with Colin Kaepernick at the helm than they were under Alex Smith? Doesn't that seem weird? Somehow, it's true. During San Francisco's first nine games this season, the offense averaged 5.2 points per trip inside their opposition's 20-yard line, a figure that would rank fourth in the league if they kept it up over the entire season. Once Kaepernick came in, things changed. Even after a brilliant performance against the Bears in his first start, the 49ers were decidedly worse with Kaepernick under center in the red zone. In his 29 trips to the red zone, Kaepernick could only muster 4.1 points per possession, which would actually be the third-worst red zone offense in football if it held up over a full season. It's a pretty scary drop, but then again, the 49ers also performed brilliantly against the Packers in the red zone last week, so all bets might be off there.

 

San Francisco's defense obviously doesn't have these problems. The brutal, aggressive 49ers defense attacks opposing offenses and makes points disappear in the red zone, where the—

 

Nope, got you again. They're terrible in the red zone on defense, too. San Francisco gave up 5.3 points per trip inside the 20 this year, which was the fourth-worst rate in the league, as only the Titans, Bills, and Chargers were worse. Their secret is to not let teams get into the red zone to begin with, as the Niners have allowed a league-low 36 trips to the red zone this year. They're not bend-but-don't-break; they're don't-bend-and-ah-what-the-hell-go-score.

 

Atlanta, meanwhile, has been a very good team in the red zone on both sides of the ball. Only the Patriots and Broncos made more trips to the red zone this year than the Falcons' offense, and they averaged 5.1 points per attempt, which was the sixth-best performance in the league. And the Atlanta defense only allowed 4.2 points per trip inside their 20, the fourth-best figure in the NFL. So if Atlanta's looking for a place where they hold the advantage, it might be in those spots where they can turn a field goal into a touchdown on offense (and vice versa on defense).

 

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QBR? You mean that BS system that ESPN created to make Tebow look like a good QB?

 

I'm not sure that his yards per attempt being better than Newton means alot, when he's barely cracked 250 yards only twice and his completion percentage has settled around 50% in the last 4 games, even though outside of the Green Bay game he hasn't been making up for that yardage with his legs either.

 

i haven't seen a game where he's completed less than 53%, and lowest passing rating was in the sea debacle at 72. do you want to dismiss his earlier games vs chi, nos, stl, mia because it doesn't support your claims? are you also forgetting that his running less in the last few games was by design?

 

The New England game was about the only one he's really impressed me as a passer (though after watching the highlights, I'd attribute it just as much to the defense setting them up with good field position, and Crabtree making a big move at the end).

 

yeah...that is the defense that you are not impressed with

 

Let's not forget fumbles either, which makes for 12 turnovers to 10 TDs.

 

he only lost 2 of those

 

Not saying Kaepernick can't have a great day against the Falcons, but you have to admit that he still has a lot to learn about being an NFL QB and pressure situations like he'll face Sunday. We'll see if he's ready...

 

yep....something i've been bitching about since harbaugh made the switch. so far he and the team have mostly been overcoming his novice mistakes.

 

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