Dear Mr. Muto

[tbimm]

No, you din't do "ok."

 

Someday, when I have the time, I'll tell you a little story about a blind squirrel and a nut.

 

[delfamdelfam]

 

What did he say that was wrong. Obviously if he took 1 RB before round six he got somewhat lucky. Fantasy football is alot of luck and hoping your sleepers pan out.

[tbimm]

What did he say that was wrong. Obviously if he took 1 RB before round six he got somewhat lucky. Fantasy football is alot of luck and hoping your sleepers pan out.

 

It is not the post itself but rather his body of work in general. While trying to build himself up he has done nothing but cut down the success and knowledge of Huddle members and staff. The thread was not addressed to him but if you read back in it a bit he jumped in like his yahoo free league knowledge was requested rather than the tongue in cheek request for Muto's draft notes.

[electricrelish]

What did he say that was wrong. Obviously if he took 1 RB before round six he got somewhat lucky. Fantasy football is alot of luck and hoping your sleepers pan out.

 

It's not obvious at all. It was a conscious strategy to not take a RB early, which is not following what the herd is doing this year.

[irish]

It is not the post itself but rather his body of work in general. While trying to build himself up he has done nothing but cut down the success and knowledge of Huddle members and staff. The thread was not addressed to him but if you read back in it a bit he jumped in like his yahoo free league knowledge was requested rather than the tongue in cheek request for Muto's draft notes.

 

 

This is the issue. You are right on the money, tbimm! If he had come in here and presented his opinions while respecting others, even busting chops from time to time, all would have been cool. However, he acts as if he is superior to everyone else here (which he's not) and builds himself up while constantly demeaning others and that's the problem. Embedded in some of his comments is in fact truth but he loses all credibility with his approach. In this specific thread, once again, he has some fair opinions. Sure, did Muto get lucky last year winning the $100,000? Absolutely! But isn't luck a HUGH part of the game? Yes. Was Muto like a blind squirrel finding a nut? No, Muto has knowledge and skills just like the rest of us, he puts a lot of irons in the fire, he wins a lot and one of his wins last year happened to be the big one. The Blind squirrel finding a nut story doesn't apply here and is a very poor and insulting analogy, once again displaying no class. The saying means that every one is lucky every once in awhile. So just because you got it right once doesn't mean you are good at it. Muto has gotten it right a lot and one of the times he got it right was during the big money contest.

 

The other aspect is that he can't have respect for someone who's won often and won a lot and read that others want his 2 cents. Because of how injured a person he is, it hurts him to read that someone else has had more success then he has (or just success in general) and he has to hijack this thread to try to make it about him and how he's going to teach Muto and everyone else how to play/win, like any one of us are checking in with him when drafting before we make each pick. He is extremely desperate for attention and needs to feel wanted and respected and in an attempt to achieve his goal, he's done just the opposite. It's really sad to see and like I said, dude needs therapy and I hope he can work some of his issues out going forward.

 

Muto, will you win the big money contest again this year, chances aren't in your favor, however, will you win in general, chances are very good. Like the rest of us, you throw your dough in the pot (just a lot more), give it your best and have fun. Your opinions are just as valuable as anyone else's here and for some carry even more weight as you've reached the pinnacle of playing this game last season.

Edited August 3, 2013 by irish

[Axe Elf]

Sometimes when you really ARE the best, simple self-esteem can take on the illusion of arrogance.

[Henry Muto]

Here is the draft board from last night...remember this is FFPC rules so you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DF. Standard PPR scoring except TE's get 1.5 PPR, 1 pt per 20 passing, 4 per TD pass, 1 per 10 rush/rec. Feel free to tell me what you would have done different and what picks you liked and what you didn't like. Key bit of info for these leagues is this it is only 11 week regular season. Top 4 teams make playoffs. Best record gets #1 seed, Most remaining pts gets #2 seed, best remaining record #3 seed and most remaining pts #4 seed. Key here is that the #1 (best record) and #2 (most pts) gets a bye into the overall championship round with the $250,000 at stake plus many other prizes. If your a 3 or 4 seed you would need to win the league championship which is played in weeks 12 and 13. Also you get no league money if you don't at least make the LCG in week 13 ($500 2nd, $1,500 for 1st). So you have to decide when your drafting what do you do with the 4 teams that bye on week 12 (Cin, Phil, Sea, Buf). If you draft them you get a regular season advantage having them all 11 weeks but you have a big time disadvantage week 12 the 1st week of the playoffs as you don't have them. Remember last year amazingly my NFFC team did not even win its league I finished 2nd in pts and 2nd in record and I missed the league playoffs (they only have 2 teams make it in their format) but I had enough pts to qualify for wildcard spot (was ranked 152 out of 1872 going into the playoffs) and while I was lucky to win it all you could say I was unlucky I didn't even win my own league going 9-4 and being 2nd in total points but clearly that team was good it was in the top 10% overall. In fact I played 7 leagues and 4 of them made the overall playoffs and 2 of them won their league titles and I finished 1st and 4th overall so you could say I was lucky to win it all but I did have two teams finish in the top 4 and was 1 play away from sweeping the top 2 spots (curse you D-Walker!). Of course any person winning a major title is lucky and of course my 8th round pick Spiller coming thru was lucky but I drafted Spiller for a reason he had a chance and I drafted WR's over RB's early because most of the time they get hurt less and return to form more. Those who spent early picks on McFadden, Mathews and such RB's last year were done before season ever started I tried that with 1 of my teams I went RB-RB those were my 2 1st 2 picks that team blew chunks it sure is harder to find a stud RB later on but man it sure sucks when those obvious studs that we all draft in the 1st 3 rounds tank/get hurt ending your season before it even begins...at least with guys that are top 10 WR's most return to form year after year though Fitz did have no QB play last year and was a bust. Many different ways to play and win at this game it gets proven year in and year out there is no right or wrong way as long as the players you pick perform and don't get hurt that is the main key though team construction is very important as well and finding waiver wire gems too (I got Moreno and Pitta off waivers last year) Moreno become my RB 3 (taking over for LeShoure who as a nice mid round pick for me) and Pitta took over for Gronk who was injured and you could say I was very unlucky to lost a stud TE like that yet somehow I won anyway.

[Henry Muto]

Also interesting is this about a team of mine in that same FPC contest I played in last night. My best team last year finished 32 out of 4,080 people and my best team did not take any RB's until the 6th round. It seems for me my best teams throughout the years have usually been the teams I only take 1 or even 0 RB's in the 1st 5-6 rounds. A lot of people tell me "that was last year and this is this year" and they are right it is much more difficult this year but I have done this in the past with great success too In 2003 I took WR-WR-WR-WR to start in my 1st ever high stakes contest I was called "dead money" on the message board in that league. That was my 1st ever high stakes team and I took a major risk but one I planned out for weeks I knew I had the 8 pick and I knew that the top 6 RBs would be gone and in fact it was like 20 RBs in top 24 picks. People were taking Trung Canidate in the 2nd round and Troy Hambrick in the 4th round while I Was scooping up 3 of the top 5 WR's and a 4th good one. Out of 72 teams only 1 other team had the sack to draft WR-WR and he took a RB in round 3. That year I finished 2nd in the regular season and was leading the 4 week playoff from wire to wire week 13 - week 16 going into Monday night that was the year Favre's father passed away a few days before that game and the guy who ended up beating me had Favre who exploded that night (I did have Javon Walker which made for exciting night) but that guy also had 2 amazing RB's Jamal 2000 yard Lewis and A-Green 1883 yards and 20 TD's and yet this guy who had 2 amazing RBs barely beat me by 6 pts in the final game of the final night in the final quarter as that night I did not hold on leading half way through the 4th. Now this year it is going to be amazingly hard to pass on RBs and win but that seems to be the case most years as well.

[Henry Muto]

Draft board http://leagues.myffpc.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=121408&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1375546866111

[HighKite]

Draft board http://leagues.myffp...X=1375546866111

 

 

Draft board http://leagues.myffp...X=1375546866111

 

 

The Lakewood Ducks look nice.

 

Good posting Muto and good luck on your season.

[Henry Muto]

Now back to the discussion at hand. Obviously knowing how entire draft went it is easy to say now "you should have gone with the Gore/Newton" combo over the "Brees/Bradshaw" combo or something of that sort. During the draft we don't know how it will fall exactly but we make guesses. So knowing that how would you have done things different ? I am very nervous about Foster even at 7 not a slam dunk pick for me...everywhere you read how Foster is a lot of people's bust of the year pick.

[HighKite]

Now back to the discussion at hand. Obviously knowing how entire draft went it is easy to say now "you should have gone with the Gore/Newton" combo over the "Brees/Bradshaw" combo or something of that sort. During the draft we don't know how it will fall exactly but we make guesses. So knowing that how would you have done things different ? I am very nervous about Foster even at 7 not a slam dunk pick for me...everywhere you read how Foster is a lot of people's bust of the year pick.

 

 

Me personally would of took Matthews instead of Brees. that is where we would of started to be different. of course you got the big money background so don't think I am dogging who you took just saying where we would of changed paths.

 

I am also very scared of Foster. that is why I am so high on having Tate if I draft him. your draft encouraged me on waiting possibly myself if I take Foster. that being said, at pick 7 you almost have no choice but to take him. what he capably can do is just to much to pass up there IMO.

[darin3]

If no one responded to this toolbox, he'd eventually get bored and would be forced to find another board.

 

Muto, I'll be drafting from the 7-hole in a FSWA league here in a couple weeks. I'd be pretty psyched to land he team you have described above. Pretty solid job.

[delfamdelfam]

Me personally would of took Matthews instead of Brees. that is where we would of started to be different. of course you got the big money background so don't think I am dogging who you took just saying where we would of changed paths.

 

I am also very scared of Foster. that is why I am so high on having Tate if I draft him. your draft encouraged me on waiting possibly myself if I take Foster. that being said, at pick 7 you almost have no choice but to take him. what he capably can do is just to much to pass up there IMO.

 

Mathews instead of Brees?

[HighKite]

Mathews instead of Brees?

 

 

LoL. yeah I am that guy who thinks Matthews is gonna have that season. and at Brees age and the fact he plays the lesser fantasy position I would go Mathews. I do understand your laughter tho as any ranking will say much different. I just think the Woodhead talk is a joke and that they just want to keep mathews carries down because of his injury history. I also expect a much better year than last from the whole Charger offense.but, I do get the laughter.

[WashingtonD]

I'm in the 8th round of a draft and Mathews hasn't gone yet.

[REZ]

I haven't seen Mathews going before 6th round in the drafts I've seen.

[The Grey Pilgrim]

Very exciting to see the high stakes draft board and good luck to Muto in this one. Here is a question or four :-) to Muto about the first round. Of course Foster is not bad for the the pick IMO. But I wonder if Muto would have taken Calvin Johnson, had he fallen to him, instead of Foster? And I wonder if he would have preferred any of the RB's taken ahead of him in the 1st round? The only RB I might have considered after Foster would have been Rice, but he was still available, so I wonder if Muto has concerns with Rice. Would like to hear anything opinions from Da Man.

 

I know I'm squeezing a lot in, but Muto like WR's early (I think), and so what about the WR's taken before Julio? Did he like Marshall and Bryant ahead of Julio?

 

And then I'll add a comment or two. I am surprised Ridley lasted so long. He was the last pick in the 3rd round with what I would say are a lot of questionable RB's ahead of him. Not sure what to make of that.

 

I notice S Jax went in the first round. I think I will bump him up at my drafts too (ala AE), but I would like to draft him later than the 1st round.

 

Ok, and at a quick glance I like the team of Kimura 3 that picked No. 11.

[Henry Muto]

Very exciting to see the high stakes draft board and good luck to Muto in this one. Here is a question or four :-) to Muto about the first round. Of course Foster is not bad for the the pick IMO. But I wonder if Muto would have taken Calvin Johnson, had he fallen to him, instead of Foster? And I wonder if he would have preferred any of the RB's taken ahead of him in the 1st round? The only RB I might have considered after Foster would have been Rice, but he was still available, so I wonder if Muto has concerns with Rice. Would like to hear anything opinions from Da Man.

 

I know I'm squeezing a lot in, but Muto like WR's early (I think), and so what about the WR's taken before Julio? Did he like Marshall and Bryant ahead of Julio?

 

And then I'll add a comment or two. I am surprised Ridley lasted so long. He was the last pick in the 3rd round with what I would say are a lot of questionable RB's ahead of him. Not sure what to make of that.

 

I notice S Jax went in the first round. I think I will bump him up at my drafts too (ala AE), but I would like to draft him later than the 1st round.

 

Ok, and at a quick glance I like the team of Kimura 3 that picked No. 11.

 

All good questions. I still have a lot of drafts to do this year so I don't want to give away everything at this time. That said I have Foster ranked in my top 3-4 overall and I think after Peterson there is no wrong answer to who anyone ranks from the 2-9 RB range...RB is just that deep and if I could land my RB 9 in the 2nd round I would be glad to take Calvin in the 1st round but that just isn't happening. Being at the 10-12 range is the sweet spot this year you can land a top RB and a top WR though I think I landed a stud WR in Julio. I put Julio in the same tier as the other WR's below Calvin so it really is just a matter of preference. The reason Ridley lasted so long was because this is PPR and because Vereen hype train is going strong. Ridley put up a little over 200 pts last year that might be his upside this year and he could fall to 175 with Vereen in the mix. Ridley is very TD dependent a lot like Morris. If Calvin was there at 7 I would have probably taken him because that would have meant Foster would have been gone if both are there you could go either way I did a draft earlier this year and took Foster at #3 overall over Calvin. The problem with taking a WR early or a TE is the RB you get in the mid 2nd - mid 3rd range unless they break out will only be a 200-230 point scoring player usually. The top 10 RB's or so could score you in the 275-300 range if they stay healthy. S-Jax is a very high pick this year usually goes in early 2nd round I like him too but a little worried about his injury history he gets nicked a lot doesn't miss a ton of games but seems to come out of them a lot. I do like S-Jax though and would have taken him in the 2nd round.

[Axe Elf]

All right, let's go through this step by step.

 

Round 1: I can't argue the pick of Foster at 1.07. About the only other name that could possibly even be in the conversation would be Ray Rice, but you can't deny the value of one of the Fab Four RBs falling to you here.

 

Round 2: Picking Julio Jones with AJ Green still on the board was an error. You lost 20 points on the year just in receptions alone, since Green is pretty much "the man" in Cinci, while Jones is just one of many targets in ATL. Last year, the overall difference in production was 2.3 points per game in Green's favor.

 

Round 3: I can't argue with Fitzgerald here, either.

 

Round 4: I can kind of understand the argument for Brees, with 1 pt per 20 yards passing, but I think your team turns out a whole lot better with an elite TE here like Vernon Davis (or Gonzo if you prefer). Both should be PPR beasts, unlike the two TEs you ended up with.

 

Round 5: You went for a third WR here, but I think the relative depth at WR compared to RB, when you have to start 2 RBs, dictated the need for a RB here. In a 12 team PPR system, Giovani Bernard should be a low-end RB2 from the start, and possibly a high-end RB2 come playoff time.

 

Round 6: You saw the need for RB here, but were forced to go a pretty risky route in Bradshaw. Taking the elite TE in round 4 and Bernard in round 5 would have freed you up to take Matt Ryan here, and not lost much--if anything--in this scoring system.

 

Round 7: You went with a TE who does not catch a lot of passes; on the plus side, he is a good red zone target. If the TE was nailed down, you could have went with another WR who would have a lot of balls thrown his way this year, like Anquan Boldin.

 

Round 8: You backed up your "stud" TE with Cook, who will be lucky to be among the top 20 TEs this season--a wasted 8th round pick. "Darren Sproles Lite" (aka Ronnie Hillman) was still on the board.

 

Round 9: Josh Gordon has a two game suspension. I would have preferred Danario Alexander here.

 

Round 10: Given that you about HAD to take Foster in the first round, you about HAD to take Tate here.

 

Round 11: This was probly your best pick of the draft--Justin Blackmon. Excellent value, great pick, good job!

 

Round 12: Zac Stacy? In a PPR? Ugh. Give me a top NFL team's WR1 instead--Sidney Rice.

 

Round 13: Seahawks D. If you're gonna jump early for a D, I guess this is the one to get. I probly woulda looked to get a backup TE here, like Marcedes Lewis, who should shine for a few weeks before Blackmon gets back, at least.

 

Round 14: Denard Robinson. Can't argue that as a good flier pick.

 

Round 15: Texans D. Ok.

 

Round 16: Mike Goodson? In a PPR? Ugh. Back up Ryan with another top 10 QB like Carson Palmer.

 

Round 17: Phil Dawson? As the 2nd K off the board? Give me Matt Bryant, or maybe Blair Walsh.

 

Round 18: Nate Burleson. At this point, as good a pick as any.

 

Round 19: Matt Schaub. Don't need him if you had Ryan and Palmer. Next-best K available was David Akers, taking over for perennially-productive Jason Hanson.

 

Round 20: Janikowski. Meh. Take the Arizona defense for Patrick Peterson.

 

So, my team:

 

QB: Ryan, Palmer

RB: Foster, Bernard, Hillman, Tate, Robinson

WR: Green, Fitz, Boldin, Alexander, Blackmon, Rice, Burleson

TE: Vernon, Marcedes

K: Bryant, Akers

D: HOU, AZ

 

Your team:

 

QB: Brees, Schaub

RB: Foster, Bradshaw, Tate, Stacy, Robinson, Goodson

WR: Julio, Fitz, Antonio, Gordon, Blackmon, Burleson

TE: Rudolph, Cook

K: Dawson, Janikowski

D: SEA, HOU

 

Class dismissed.

[Henry Muto]

I see no problem going Ray Rice over Foster I just preferred Foster on this night. Ben Tate for all the talk has not really cut into Foster much while I think Pierce will do that into Rice's numbers but Rice with Pitta out will get more catches. No wrong answer there Rice or Foster for sure. As far as Mathews goes he left a very bad taste last year and is major injury prone and the way they use him worries me...he was taken off the field I think for all but 5 snaps last year on 3rd down. I think he has talent and could be a steal this year but I like the sure thing Brees gives me and I will just take a chance on a later RB (like I did with Bradshaw). I know many people feel just wait on QB and get someone else later and I agree with that I kicked myself for taking Brees so soon when I seen Newton fall past my 6th and Romo past my 9th but in a H2H league the times Brees explodes for 40 pts can really get you a win you need and so many RBs bust I rather grab my sure thing and then if my RB 2 busts well I still have other great players. Just my theory most of the time.

[Henry Muto]

 

 

Round 2: Picking Julio Jones with AJ Green still on the board was an error. You lost 20 points on the year just in receptions alone, since Green is pretty much "the man" in Cinci, while Jones is just one of many targets in ATL. Last year, the overall difference in production was 2.3 points per game in Green's favor.

 

 

 

I explained this one not sure if you seen that or not. Week 12 is Cincinnati's bye week...our playoffs begin in week 12. I agree I would take AJ Green over Julio in any draft where week 12 is not a playoff week but it is. So would you take Green and hope that you can win your week 12 playoff game anyway or do you take Julio ?

[Axe Elf]

A fair point, and one you could make against Bernard, too--although you did take Seattle's D...

Edited August 3, 2013 by Axe Elf

[Bronco Billy]

 

 

No, you din't do "ok."

 

Someday, when I have the time, I'll tell you a little story about a blind squirrel and a nut.

 

 

I'm certain that parable will mean magnitudes coming from a guy with a 10% win rate in yahoo 10 teamers.

[Henry Muto]

Instead of copying your post I will just note here - thanks for that post that was well thought out and you explained your picks now remember when you are drafting you got to see the finished product I had no idea QBs would fall that far. If I knew I could get Newton or Ryan in the 6th I would have probably preferred that but I have seen many drafts in my spot neither of those guys make it to my 6th. I WOULD agree that would be a ways to go but again its a lot easier to do the draft from your view then my view during it. To a couple of your points. Cook is not a wasted pick he is not just my TE2 but we can start up to 3 TE's using double flex and I can start both TE's you seem to be down on both guys but I have both in my top 10 TE's and I project both guys for around 200 pts...the overall catches don't matter it comes down to how many pts are they scoring and if you see how I created a massive TE run after my Cook pick I would have been left with very little at TE. Now you will say I should have gone TE sooner and that's fine but taking V-Davis in the 4th seems high to me he scored less than 150 pts last year many will say he will be the go to guy without Crabtree and I think he will as well but man he was impossible to start last year and I hate to take that risk in the 4th round when I can get another TE later on. So it wasn't back up my TE its giving me flexibility to start 2 and rotate them as well. I took Houston DF because Seattle byes week 12 and Houston plays Jax I usually don't take 2 DF's in this kind of format. Kickers are kickers and I took the one I like I can't argue against the ones you like. I took a 2nd kicker only because this draft is so soon and there are no waivers before week 1...After week 1 I will drop Janikowski he is "emergency break only if needed" and a few years ago I only took 1 kicker Hartley who got hurt in preseason after the draft and I took a zero at kicker. In the drafts I do later this year I won't be taking a 2nd kicker and I won't be taking a 2nd DF (unless I take Seattle again) Thank you for your well thought out post.

Edited August 3, 2013 by Henry Muto