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Cowboyz1

Can Baldwin Repeat last years production?

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Cowboyz1    480

I noticed Baldwins TD tear took off in the later part of the season. Does he start out and maintain that kind of production or do they revert back to their power run game with a younger faster lynch found in one of the rookies.

 

Baldwin has been in the league for some time now and has never been the elite WR1 and I wonder if that was an aberration and now teams will game plan for him forcing them to spread the ball around more. I just don't see him as a 80 catch 10+ TD guy. Maybe he is and is now coming into his own as a veteran play maker. Based on his performance last year he's a 2 round player but only if you believe he is what he was last year. Otherwise he's a mid round draft pick right?

 

Maybe more importantly, who is going to emerge as his number 2 to take some of the pressure off. Or does that number 2 take over and move Baldwin back to his number 2 stats?

Edited by Cowboyz1

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DMD    331

The Seahawks schedule is about the same and they had nice success passing the ball in 2015 (finally). I don't think they are going to revert back to the run heavy ways of the past and Lynch is no longer there anyway. He won't surprise anyone this year but I would expect that the Seahawks are not just going to ignore the success they had in the air. And Baldwin is by far the #1 receiver there.

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Cowboyz1    480

The Seahawks schedule is about the same and they had nice success passing the ball in 2015 (finally). I don't think they are going to revert back to the run heavy ways of the past and Lynch is no longer there anyway. He won't surprise anyone this year but I would expect that the Seahawks are not just going to ignore the success they had in the air. And Baldwin is by far the #1 receiver there.

Yes, I agree with all of that. However, what's your over and under on catches and TD's.

 

U/O 80

U/O 10 TDs

 

I will assume over 80 catches is well over 1000 yards, say 1100 to 1300.

Edited by Cowboyz1

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DMD    331

I currently have him at 78-1000-9 but that is probably more likely to go up than down. Depends on what happens with Rawls and how the offense is looking in AUG.

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MorningMud    504

What about Lockett? His rookie season was impressive. I could see him taking on more targets.

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darin3    1,047

Can he? Maybe? Will he? Doubt it. At least not the TDs.

 

I have him at 80 catches, right at 1,200 yards and 8 TDs.

 

5 catches, 80 yards a game with a TD every other game on average... sounds about right for a guy of his talent level, with Lockett and perhaps Graham commanding more looks.

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michaelredd9    782

I think the Seahawks continue to run the ball a lot. It keeps Russell Wilson healthy. It also softens the defense. They drafted 3 running backs this year because they are committed to the run.

 

Wilson has developed as a quarterback to the point he might produce a fantasy relevant receiver each year. But I think it'll be hard to predict who will be that receiver. I rather take Tyler Lockett in the 7th-13th round than Baldwin in the 3rd round.

Edited by michaelredd9

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heehawks    290

I think the Seahawks continue to run the ball a lot. It keeps Russell Wilson healthy. It also softens the defense. They drafted 3 running backs this year because they are committed to the run.

 

Wilson has developed as a quarterback to the point he might produce a fantasy relevant receiver each year. But I think it'll be hard to predict who will be that receiver. I rather take Tyler Lockett in the 7th-13th round than Baldwin in the 3rd round.

This 100 percent.

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Bobby Brown    260

I think the Seahawks continue to run the ball a lot. It keeps Russell Wilson healthy. It also softens the defense. They drafted 3 running backs this year because they are committed to the run.

 

Wilson has developed as a quarterback to the point he might produce a fantasy relevant receiver each year. But I think it'll be hard to predict who will be that receiver. I rather take Tyler Lockett in the 7th-13th round than Baldwin in the 3rd round.

This needs to broken down a bit. These 3 RBs, as a whole, aren't high value commitments to a smash mouth running game.

 

Prosise was drafted late 3rd round and converted from a WR at ND. In theory he takes over a 3rd down pass catching back who can line up as WR.

 

Alex Collins is more of a prototypical 1st and 2nd down RB, who was drafted late 5th. So there is the commitment to running, but he has no guarantee of making the team.

 

RB Zack Brooks, late 7th and another pass catching RB who has the odds stacked against him of making the team.

 

When Lynch got injured last year, Wilson threw from the pocket almost exclusively, and the team went 6-1 without him. Wilson threw 24 touchdown passes to one INT over that span while the Seahawks averaged more than 30 points per game. Last year the when the offense started rolling it was predicated on Wilson, not the running game. The offense was and is on Wilson's shoulders, the draft didn't indicate otherwise.

 

To the point, Baldwin seems like an easy pick for overvalued WRs. And I agree with you that Lockett probably represents the best value. And if Graham is healthy; Wilson might actually start developing a repertoire with an elite weapon vs. an UDFA WR in Baldwin.

Edited by Bobby Brown
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Bobby Brown    260

And Baldwin is by far the #1 receiver there.

The #1 receiver? Yes. By far? Maybe not. Lockett runs possession routes well, has speed and elusiveness that Baldwin can't sniff. Lockett went for 32 targets over the last several games to Baldwin's 39 (week 13 through 17). They seemed more like a 1a and 1b over that period. 50+-600+and 6TDs as a rookie shouldn't be dismissed.

 

Baldwin and Lockett both hit double digit PPR points consistently from weeks 11 through 17. But Graham wasn't playing.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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DMD    331

Take into account when the passing started to spike for SEA (Week 10) and Badlwin had 82-60-848-12 and Lockett had 50-35-521-6 over that time period. More notable was the playoffs when Baldwin had 19-13-124-1 while Lockett only managed 9-4-110-1.

 

What is surprising a bit is both are on the small side at 5-10 and less than 190. Lockett could make a year two leap to be sure. But he only had more than three catches five times and none in his final four games. Not only did Baldwin have 12 games with more than three catches, his final ten games only once had fewer than five catches.

 

How Graham factors in us hard to say since he may not be ready by Week 1 and the whole passing explosion really happened once he was gone. It will be very interesting to see what SEA does with their passing game after surprising success last year.

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Seahawks21    86

This team ran the ball only about 2 times less last year than it averaged over the previous 3, and that was without Lynch. They're still going to be at the very top of the league in rushing attempts, and much closer to the bottom in passing attempts. The presence of Jimmy Graham will ensure that Baldwin doesn't have anywhere near last year's production, especially in the red zone. I wouldn't be too worried about Lockett.

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