forever in debt to mo lewis Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 am i the only one who looks at these guys right now and says " 2016 bortles and allen robinson"? i didnt own a buc last year....but i caught winston a couple times towards the end of the year and it looked to me like a kid who was starting to get a bit of a feel for it....very similar to the glimpses bortles gave at the end of his rookie year...but prob better when i look at evans...i see a freak....a freak with some not so good hands right now...but he looks like he might be uncoverable alot of the time i got to see of him.....he had 147 targets last year...his catch rate was obviously terrible.....but a pretty attainable increase of about 10 percent on his catch rate sees him putting up some pretty good ppr reception numbers of course with evans the td numbers last year scare you....but any smart fantasy guy knows those numbers can be volatile....its the reason a guy like julio can have good years(one monster one) and catch only 6 and 8 tds respectively....while a guy like robinson can catch 14 in a single year obviously you wont get the same value this year drafting evans as you would have had last year with robinson( i took him as my 3rd in a ppr in the 6th round)....youll probably have to pay a late 2nd/high to mid 3rd depending on size of your league.....but i could easily see this guy being worth that i thing things really set up for this bucs team to look alot like that jax team last year...maybe even better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 I'll give you 16 reasons why I don't think they have a Bortles/Robinson year: @ATL, @ARI, LA, DEN, @CAR, bye, @SF, OAK, ATL, CHI, @KC, SEA, @SD, NO, @DAL, @NO, CAR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 I'll give you 16 reasons why I don't think they have a Bortles/Robinson year: @ATL, @ARI, LA, DEN, @CAR, bye, @SF, OAK, ATL, CHI, @KC, SEA, @SD, NO, @DAL, @NO, CAR oh mr dorey! thanks for the reply i have to say...that does look daunting! but let me remind you that a rough schedule...which means defecits....largely of the 2nd half variety=tons of passes, targets and garbage time! i think anyone who followed the fantasy success of jax offensive players realized that was part of the formula for the bortles/robinson success.... when i look at that schedule i see a couple of tough matchups that would actually scare me....and im also of the belief that just about any defense can be had when they come into your place.....that SF defense...i dunno if its what it used to be ....is carolinas defense more of a system or will josh normans departure hurt...i think it might be more of a system type of thing....but even julio was able to do ok against them last year in both matchups( i think julio is a level above evans obviously) that is a tough schedule though no question from a strictly competitive standpoint....and i could see this tb team being a little more comeptitive and better than jax was last year....but theres some talent with winston and evans...and the garbage time/trail factor could really push them up IMO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresJohnny Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 You're not alone here... I am pretty high on the pair this year as well. I'm even entertaining the idea of old man VJax late in drafts that I dont get Evans. I see the same thing you do in Winston; I think he is going to "get it." I'm also not at all afraid of Mike Evans drops... he's young and unfocused... bright lights, man! I think as the 2 grow together, you could really see some fireworks, and I'm willing to bet on it. After the top 3 WRs... I go immediately to AJ... after that? Man, I couldnt be mad at you if you went Evans! It's risky considering those other top 10 guys like Dez and AR-15... Alshon and Jordy... but the kid (Evans) is a stud. No doubt. I'm targeting him in leagues where i'm a late 2nd round pick, and targeting Winston in the ends of drafts in which I dont land Captain Kirk as a backup! Good topic... thank you! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 You're not alone here... I am pretty high on the pair this year as well. I'm even entertaining the idea of old man VJax late in drafts that I dont get Evans. I see the same thing you do in Winston; I think he is going to "get it." I'm also not at all afraid of Mike Evans drops... he's young and unfocused... bright lights, man! I think as the 2 grow together, you could really see some fireworks, and I'm willing to bet on it. After the top 3 WRs... I go immediately to AJ... after that? Man, I couldnt be mad at you if you went Evans! It's risky considering those other top 10 guys like Dez and AR-15... Alshon and Jordy... but the kid (Evans) is a stud. No doubt. I'm targeting him in leagues where i'm a late 2nd round pick, and targeting Winston in the ends of drafts in which I dont land Captain Kirk as a backup! Good topic... thank you! im right there with you....right now with v-jax i have him somewhere in the 90's overall in my ppr rankings....but i would def target him there and could see maybe moving him up a lil bit in a few weeks.... i def love winston as a backup ...a high upside backup.....and im with you on evans.....i could see reaching on him a bit...i have that kind of feeling.....could be completely wrong....but when it comes to fantasy...i like to project...rather than constantly pick safe players that have produced.....the best is ahead of this guy....i want to own him if/when he explodes i won a high stakes ppr league drafting cooks in the 2nd round last year...it turned out to not be a good pick...although he wasnt bad at all in the 2nd half of the year and actually helped.....luckily i covered it up with some other really good picks(a-rob being one of them)....even cooks last year got off to a slow start...and i think if brees were healthy(he had a stretch where it was obvious he was playing super banged up) i think cooks might have been worth it....they missed on so many opps last year....cooks might have been worth it if not for slow start and brees playing hurt but i look at some guys...jordy...the guy..obviously you have a-rod running things and thats as good as it gets....but the age and injury situation scares me.......i just feel you....i think id rather take that gamble ....i think evans is the kind of pick that wins you a league....where a guy like nelson prob says "well we werent terrible" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Evans has an adp of 18.14. That's too rich for my blood. I'd rather take VJax with his adp of 112.18. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InTomWeTrust Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 same here i was never impressed with evans Drops so many balls and isnt polished at all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wist43 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 I think Evans will be fine... sophomore slump, missed 2 games (1 DNP, 2nd game was little more than a toe dip in the water). I traded for him before last season expecting that I'd have to wait a year for him to go off. He's an immense talent, and a good kid... so I assume he's going to put it all together. The trade I got him was: I got Adrian Peterson and Mike Evans I gave Demarco Murray, Demarius Thomas, and Jimmy Graham. Everyone thought I was nuts, but I think I got the better of that trade, and the guy I made the trade with finished dead last in our league. I like Evans a lot moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted July 30, 2016 Author Share Posted July 30, 2016 (edited) Evans has an adp of 18.14. That's too rich for my blood. I'd rather take VJax with his adp of 112.18.Well....ok But we're talking about a guy with 90 rec 1300-1400 yards and 12-14 td potential....vs a guy like v jax, whom if he doubles his production from last year is a 65 rec 100 yards and 6 td guy....now that's not bad if he's a bench guy and he produces on bye weeks or as an injury replacement ....VJax is 33 I dunno if I'd be looking to count on him for much Evans could easily catch 90-95 balls this year with a reasonable increase in his catch rate ...the hands are a slight concern but i don't think we're looking at troy Williamson here....this fun has freakish size/strength....and he can move a little too Edited July 30, 2016 by forever in debt to mo lewis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 a guy like v jax, whom if he doubles his production from last year is a 65 rec 100 yards and 6 td guy. VJax was hurt most of last year. He ended up starting 9 games and playing in 10 games. He did have 10 catches and 147 yards against Carolina. But I agree with you, I'm not counting on VJax. But Tampa is paying VJax $10 million this year. I don't think they'd pay that much cashish for a role player. Then again, he could still get cut. There are a lot of talented players who never actualize because of mental deficiencies or a lack of commitment. The second round is for proven commodities, not potential. If Evans gets 90 catches, 1300 yards, and 12 tds this year, I'll draft him in the second round next year. This year, I'll snag Evans if he drops to the mid-3rd round. I do believe that Winston will produce a fantasy elite receiver this year and Evans is clearly the most likely candidate. But it could be a receiver we aren't even discussing. I'll be watching Bucs' camp closely to see if anyone emerges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted July 30, 2016 Share Posted July 30, 2016 Well....ok But we're talking about a guy with 90 rec 1300-1400 yards and 12-14 td potential....vs a guy like v jax, whom if he doubles his production from last year is a 65 rec 100 yards and 6 td guy....now that's not bad if he's a bench guy and he produces on bye weeks or as an injury replacement ....VJax is 33 I dunno if I'd be looking to count on him for much Evans could easily catch 90-95 balls this year with a reasonable increase in his catch rate ...the hands are a slight concern but i don't think we're looking at troy Williamson here....this fun has freakish size/strength....and he can move a little too So I agree with Evans' potential for this year but we should also factor in how we're going to feel if we draft him at the current ADP and he repeats last year? The chemistry didn't seem entirely natural with Winston last year but I do think there's plenty of time for improvement. His early-season defensive schedule isn't a cakewalk so you should be prepared to suffer through some weak performances - at the beginning of the season it takes some discipline not to freak out. The Carolina secondary shouldn't be as tough without Norman so after the bye things open up a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted July 31, 2016 Author Share Posted July 31, 2016 VJax was hurt most of last year. He ended up starting 9 games and playing in 10 games. He did have 10 catches and 147 yards against Carolina. But I agree with you, I'm not counting on VJax. But Tampa is paying VJax $10 million this year. I don't think they'd pay that much cashish for a role player. Then again, he could still get cut. There are a lot of talented players who never actualize because of mental deficiencies or a lack of commitment. The second round is for proven commodities, not potential. If Evans gets 90 catches, 1300 yards, and 12 tds this year, I'll draft him in the second round next year. This year, I'll snag Evans if he drops to the mid-3rd round. I do believe that Winston will produce a fantasy elite receiver this year and Evans is clearly the most likely candidate. But it could be a receiver we aren't even discussing. I'll be watching Bucs' camp closely to see if anyone emerges. i prob have a different fantasy philosophy than you.....as far as where you draft proven commodities over potential...im almost always down for potential and projection in any round....but its not like i said "go spend a mid 2nd on him" here..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeresJohnny Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 i prob have a different fantasy philosophy than you.....as far as where you draft proven commodities over potential...im almost always down for potential and projection in any round....but its not like i said "go spend a mid 2nd on him" here..... There's no right or wrong way. Take all the scoring leaders at the end of the year and look back to their draft spot and what you'll see is a lot of "I could have had him instead of who I picked there!" Every year, guys from the early rounds bust, and guys from the later rounds breakout. Nothing wrong with rolling the dice with your left hand instead of your right. Last year, I drafted Julio over Dez and about got laughed out of the league... until Week 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tab88 Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 I personally am a big fan of trying to team up a QB-WR. It's a go big go home mentality week by week, and I agree if your going to do it the most important thing to consider is strength of schedule. There are only a few combos worth pursuing this year, and Winston and Evans are on that list. Most importantly, they have a running game threat so not all the focus is on these 2. winston will be a cheap/late round pick and you can probably get another QB sooner to hedge your risk at the QB position.... Also, not to sound to "spam" like, but this would be a good question/thread for DraftingSleepers.com - a new social media site just for fantasy sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 There's no right or wrong way. Take all the scoring leaders at the end of the year and look back to their draft spot and what you'll see is a lot of "I could have had him instead of who I picked there!" Every year, guys from the early rounds bust, and guys from the later rounds breakout. Nothing wrong with rolling the dice with your left hand instead of your right. Last year, I drafted Julio over Dez and about got laughed out of the league... until Week 1. I drafted Julio 5th overall in a high stakes ppr last year....drafted cooks in the 2nd lol.....cooks wasn't bad down the stretch after a real slow start but def not worth it...luckily I drafted guys like allen robinson, martavis Bryant, john brown and tyler eifert...picked up Baldwin off waivers etc but im willing to take risks and swing for the fences...I took my first rb in round 4 and it was gurley....and people looked at me funny....I told people "if I can hang in there for the first 4 weeks and not get buried my team is going to be good".....I won the league 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 i prob have a different fantasy philosophy than you.....as far as where you draft proven commodities over potential...im almost always down for potential and projection in any round....but its not like i said "go spend a mid 2nd on him" here..... Once it gets to the 4th round or so, I'm all for taking chances. I like to draft players who have the potential to be a superstar. In the 4th round or later, that's going to be a risky pick. But in the first 2 rounds, you can draft players who have been studs for 3 or 4 years in a row. Why take a 50/50 chance on a guy like Evans? Nothing is worse than having a 1st or 2nd round player bust. If a player like Mike Evans or Allen Robinson busts this year, people will complain that they have bad luck. But is it really bad luck or are they taking unnecessary risks drafting unproven players? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 Once it gets to the 4th round or so, I'm all for taking chances. I like to draft players who have the potential to be a superstar. In the 4th round or later, that's going to be a risky pick. But in the first 2 rounds, you can draft players who have been studs for 3 or 4 years in a row. Why take a 50/50 chance on a guy like Evans? Nothing is worse than having a 1st or 2nd round player bust. If a player like Mike Evans or Allen Robinson busts this year, people will complain that they have bad luck. But is it really bad luck or are they taking unnecessary risks drafting unproven players? like I said...I have a different philosophy.... I won a pretty sharp high stakes league taking cooks in the 2nd last year....and I knew it was risk....not crushing a 2nd round pick can be overcome.... id rather be a year early on a guy...or hit on a guy as hes turning into a beast or having a career year than pay for past production.....fantasy ff is just as much about projection....every year theres a host of players who outperform their "ADP".....trying to identify them is part of the process and if I think I see one ill pay the price a round early....id rather take a 50/50 chance on a young guy and potential breakout than pay for past production..... guys like evans, cooks, etc aren't just around to compete for jobs and maybe make the team....they were selected to become the centerpieces/focal points of their offenses.....im betting on that happening soon and successfully..... how many guys got burnt on "veteran 2nd rounders" last year.....I mean a guy like jordy...done...dez(borderline 1st/2nd)....I got the same production out of cooks that you got out of calvin Johnson...only I was less worried about cooks getting hurt...and cooks started real slow and brees played hurt...brees playing hurt held cooks back a lot.....but I feel like cooks could have done more....megatron? I think that was about the best he had left in him .obviously im not out here to project injuries...you cant....but a lot of guys got burnt on 2nd round guys....and 1st round guys...paying for past production....I like taking chances on guys who have career year ahead of them...not behind them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 3, 2016 Author Share Posted August 3, 2016 to kind of touch on the subject again mike red you can get burned either way really...no one way is better...I mean....plenty of guys im sure got burned by projecting on a guy like cj Anderson and using a 2nd rounder on him....prob the same with a guy like Jeremy hill.....and some guys prob got burnt using a pick on a guy like eddie lacy basing off past production and an expected increase in it I just think id prefer to be burned projecting a breakout, monster, or career year on a young up and coming player ..than getting torched on a guy whos had his career year and ends up getting hurt or missing a bunch of games I do agree that evans is prob more of a risk than some guys given that his situation isn't ideal yet with his qb...I do like having wrs with known commodities at qb....jameis is still a projection himself at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quickneasycat Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 Love them both. The matchups they have in the fantasy playoffs look soooooooooo juicy. Assuming you make the playoffs with them obviously lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 12, 2016 Author Share Posted August 12, 2016 Love them both. The matchups they have in the fantasy playoffs look soooooooooo juicy. Assuming you make the playoffs with them obviously lol like I noted earlier...some, like DMD, seem to think that a daunting schedule means production is impossible..... im not here touting tampa to win 10 games here...im saying that I think they can put up numbers...especially evans....I see them potentially trailing.....I just see potential in a tough schedule on a team that will probably be behind...no matter how bad you wanna run the ball and control it...it doesn't always work out that way.... I was reading something the other day about his drops....which is a pretty big number( I happen to think that stat is sort of irrelevant and overreacted to) that might alarm some people...however someone noted that 5 of his drops came in a game where he also caught 8 balls and was targeted 17 times.....the guy who wrote it suggested that fatigue may have been a factor....and that a healthy portion of them came in another game 5 games later....but in between that he went 5 games without one.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 these two looking pretty good so far.....some tough matchups coming the next two weeks though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolv Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 They are set up quite nicely for fantasy playoffs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 bump DMD...im fielding a lot of offers right now...im not gonna be cheap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Nor should you - this is when the schedule gets the lightest all year. He was already doing well through the first half of the year and kicked up the yardage a lot over the last month. For the rest of the season, he's gotta be considered a top 5 WR IMO easily. Not sure what someone else can give you that makes it fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 Nor should you - this is when the schedule gets the lightest all year. He was already doing well through the first half of the year and kicked up the yardage a lot over the last month. For the rest of the season, he's gotta be considered a top 5 WR IMO easily. Not sure what someone else can give you that makes it fair. oh im not trading evans lol...i meant as a fantasy analyst/prognosticator..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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