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I think Gurley bounces back and is a good value


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I'm not complete 'doom and gloom' on Gurley.  Only in regards to where he's currently being drafted (late 2nd in 12 man).  I think if you can get him mid-late 3rd/early 4th, you're going to get a fair return on him, and there is definite upside, as he is going to have volume.  I just have a problem with his efficacy and TD opportunities given his situation.  He needs those in order to be a bonafide 2nd rounder IMO.  Crowell from last year is a good comparison IMO.  Talented RB, who had the volume, but never ran it over 15 times a game or had many redzone looks because the offense and team was bad as a whole, and they were having to abandon the run. 

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1 minute ago, kdko said:

 

Those are far from the only points i've made.  And I don't think it's really fair to compare those situations.  DeMarco's situation drastically improved when he went to Tennessee from Philly, as did Shady's.  Tennessee is/was a balanced offense which put a lot of emphasis on the run, and could keep his legs fresh with Henry also grinding down the defense.  Buffalo's Lynn is a RB guru of sorts and Tyrod is always able to keep defenses off balance.  Both Shady and Gillislee thrived running in that offense.  Enter Gurley, who arguably has the worst QB in the league, a revamped line (we'll see how they mesh), and an offense that lacks any real options.  Robert Woods struggled as the #1 WR in Buffalo and is now going to play for an even worse QB.  For the same reasons they stacked the box against Gurley last year, they didn't add enough to prevent teams from doing it this year as well.  Coaches and defenses are going to continue challenging Goff to throw the ball.  I don't believe in this team, and I see them playing from behind a lot of the time and having to abandon the run altogether, as well as not having many redzone opportunities.  

 

I could agree that having Tyrod helps a running game. Because he is a threat himself to run in the fight formation on any down. But Tyrod was there in 2015 too wasnt he? And he arguably had a better year in 2015 which was the year that made people sour on shady alot....Lynn was there too right?

 

Tennesees offense is balanced which puts emphasis on the run? Well yeah. They do their "exotic smashmouth" thing. And its much better suited for him than taking tosses out of a shotgun. But its not like Philly didnt run the ball. Why was Murrays ADP last year so bad? I mean surely you drafted him right since you could tell how drastically his situation was going to improve? Virtually everyone was down on him and alot of people had written him off as done. I did see a nice schedule against the run, an improved line in Tenn, and a scheme better suited for his running talent. However the perception was that he was washed up.

 

Are we going to assume that nothing can improve in St Louis either? From offensive scheme, offensive line and the QB? Nothing?

 

You do realize that Goff will have a full camp of reps as the starter. A guy that worked with Cousins in DC(i personally dont think all that highly of cousins but have you seen his bank account) as his coach. You do realize that St Louis defense was pretty good most of the year last year and had them in alot of game that a decent offense would have won for them? They had some stretches where they were playing with a makeshift defensive line and a stretch where they had their coach fired on them. An improved offense can help a defense. Give them life and a rest. They also added their top TE(not named OJ Howard) in the draft and a promising young WR with some good size and speed too.

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4 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 

I guess having the only counter opinion in this thread, and providing stats colors me angry.  Nice.  Of the people that fall around the same ADP, in a big money league, I would probably hope someone didn't bite on Gronk or TY, or i'd probably just play it safe by going with Rodgers to be honest.  When I've done mock drafts and am in this range, I don't have complete confidence in any of the guys on the board.  Rodgers is for the most part match-up proof and provides the kind of security I like.  

 

I'm with you.  Since his big start he's had 1 game over 100 yards since November 1 of 2015.  I wouldn't touch him at his current ADP.  The o-line in front of him got mildly better in the off season but not to the degree where I'd expect him to suddenly figure things out again. I think he's a bust and flames out over the next year or two. 

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10 minutes ago, kdko said:

I'm not complete 'doom and gloom' on Gurley.  Only in regards to where he's currently being drafted (late 2nd in 12 man).  I think if you can get him mid-late 3rd/early 4th, you're going to get a fair return on him, and there is definite upside, as he is going to have volume.  I just have a problem with his efficacy and TD opportunities given his situation.  He needs those in order to be a bonafide 2nd rounder IMO.  Crowell from last year is a good comparison IMO.  Talented RB, who had the volume, but never ran it over 15 times a game or had many redzone looks because the offense and team was bad as a whole, and they were having to abandon the run. 

 

And yet everyone is in love with Crowell this year because they made additions to the offensive line, have a new QB and a relatively new head coach.

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Just now, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

And yet everyone is in love with Crowell this year because they made additions to the offensive line, have a new QB and a relatively new head coach.

 

And the fact that he ran the ball far, far better than Gurley last year, amassing 70 more yards on 80 less carries.  The Browns O-Line could also very well be top 5 next year.  Crowell also has a late 3rd/4th round ADP.  

 

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12 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

And the fact that he ran the ball far, far better than Gurley last year, amassing 70 more yards on 80 less carries.  The Browns O-Line could also very well be top 5 next year.  Crowell also has a late 3rd/4th round ADP.  

 

Yup. But if Crowell had been a first round NFL Draft pick and had a 1100 yard 10 TD year in 12 games season in the last two years he probably wouldnt have that ADP. It would be higher. 

 

Crowells ADP has nothing to do with his stats in comparison to Gurleys. It has to do with anticipation in improvement with the Browns as I previously mentioned

Edited by forever in debt to mo lewis
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There haven't been many players that saw the same kind of regression that Gurley did.  Historically, it might be the worst.  And if you're going to make that comparison, I could just point you towards Arian Foster.  Undafted, and had a big year his first starting season and went in the 1st round the following year.  Ultimately, we're talking about value vs respective draft position, and Crowell screams value, whereas Gurley screams risk.

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2 minutes ago, kdko said:

There haven't been many players that saw the same kind of regression that Gurley did.  Historically, it might be the worst.  And if you're going to make that comparison, I could just point you towards Arian Foster.  Undafted, and had a big year his first starting season and went in the 1st round the following year.  Ultimately, we're talking about value vs respective draft position, and Crowell screams value, whereas Gurley screams risk.

I wasnt making the draft position comparison to devalue Crowell. I know the pedigree Crowell carried coming out of high school. Hes on par with Gurley in that respect. What Im saying is Crowell is essentially playing from behind. Gurleys rookie year and draft position are what fuels his ADP. If all things were equal and Crowell was a top 10 pick and had a rookie year like Gurleys his ADP now would likely be higher is my point. I know all about guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.

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Just now, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

I wasnt making the draft position comparison to devalue Crowell. I know the pedigree Crowell carried coming out of high school. Hes on par with Gurley in that respect. What Im saying is Crowell is essentially playing from behind. Gurleys rookie year and draft position are what fuels his ADP. If all things were equal and Crowell was a top 10 pick and had a rookie year like Gurleys his ADP now would likely be higher is my point. I know all about guys like Arian Foster and Priest Holmes.

 

Fair enough.  We're standing on opposite sides of the street yelling into megaphones, and i think we'll always going to be in disagreement about this, haha.  He may do very well this year, but I don't like or enjoy using my first 2 picks on players with so many question marks surrounding them.=

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1 minute ago, kdko said:

 

Fair enough.  We're standing on opposite sides of the street yelling into megaphones, and i think we'll always going to be in disagreement about this, haha.  He may do very well this year, but I don't like or enjoy using my first 2 picks on players with so many question marks surrounding them.=

 

Its cool. I enjoy the debate. Every year you have situations that drastically improve or drastically go south in the NFL. For instance I showed you a link from last year where I was talking about Evans(I know its a different situation/position) and some people didnt wanna buy into the possibility of Evans improving. I still believe in Gurleys talent. I have a hard time believing if you put him in Dallas he struggles last year.

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KDKO,

 

I should also mention that I probably draft differently than most people. Im constantly mining for situations that are going to potentially improve. Im looking for a guy in every round that I think can drastically outperform his ADP or round. Where some guys are looking safe early and hoping to hit later on some gems, Im looking to hit in every round on a 12 TD WR or RB. My main high stakes league doesnt do playoffs. Strictly wins/losses of the double variety. It seems every year the winner has a team where literally everything clicks. And thats kind of the way I draft. Im rarely looking for something safe at any juncture. Im looking for a guy I think can peform like a 1st rounder in every round.

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22 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 

I guess having the only counter opinion in this thread, and providing stats colors me angry.  Nice.  Of the people that fall around the same ADP, in a big money league, I would probably hope someone didn't bite on Gronk or TY, or i'd probably just play it safe by going with Rodgers to be honest.  When I've done mock drafts and am in this range, I don't have complete confidence in any of the guys on the board.  Rodgers is for the most part match-up proof and provides the kind of security I like.  

 

Which stats did you provide?  Gurley averaged 3.2 ypc.  That had already been established.  Gurley had the worst ypc for any running back who had more than 200 carries.  That's pretty much common sense.  It is incredibly rare for a team to give 200 carries to a running back who is averaging 3.2 ypc.  Then you stated that 80% of his 2015 yards came on 14% of his carries.  I looked it up.  64% of his yards came on 14% of his carries.  Getting 64% of yards on 14% of carries is still a high percentage.  He had a ton of long carries in 2015.  He was facing 8-man fronts behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and he somehow managed to pull off a crazy number of long runs.  That is a good thing, not a bad thing.  Only a special talent can put up such big numbers when running behind a horrible offensive line.

 

If you can only name one player who has a lower adp than Gurley who you would prefer to Gurley, then you aren't as anti-Gurley as you think.  Basically you are saying that Gurley should have an adp of 23 instead of 22.  It's easy to say that you'd never draft player X in the second round.  But the end of the second round doesn't have as strong of players as it once did.  I think the reason is that people used to draft 2 running backs in the first 2 rounds regardless of who was available.  That pushed quality wide receivers to the end of the 2nd round and beginning of the 3rd round.  Now that everyone is on the wide receiver bandwagon, the quality receivers dry up in the middle of the second round.  You can hope for TY Hilton to drop to the end of the second round.  But with his adp of 14.87, it isn't likely to happen.  Gronk dropping is far more likely.  Otherwise, it seems you'll be drafting a quarterback.  If you truly hate Gurley, I think you should consider drafting Cooks, Fournette or Mixon.

Edited by michaelredd9
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4 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Which stats did you provide?  Gurley averaged 3.2 ypc.  That had already been established.  Gurley had the worst ypc for any running back who had more than 200 carries.  That's pretty much common sense.  It is incredibly rare for a team to give 200 carries to a running back who is averaging 3.2 ypc.  Then you stated that 80% of his 2015 yards came on 14% of his carries.  I looked it up.  64% of his yards came on 14% of his carries.  Getting 64% of yards on 14% of carries is still a high percentage.  He had a ton of long carries in 2015.  He was facing 8-man fronts behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and he somehow managed to pull off a crazy number of long runs.  That is a good thing, not a bad thing.  Only a special talent can put up such big numbers when running behind a horrible offensive line.

 

If you can only name one player who has a lower adp than Gurley who you would prefer to Gurley, then you aren't as anti-Gurley as you think.  Basically you are saying that Gurley should have an adp of 23 instead of 22.  It's easy to say that you'd never draft player X in the second round.  But the end of the second round doesn't have as strong of players as it once did.  I think the reason is that people used to draft 2 running backs in the first 2 rounds regardless of who was available.  That pushed quality wide receivers to the end of the 2nd round and beginning of the 3rd round.  Now that everyone is on the wide receiver bandwagon, the quality receivers dry up in the middle of the second round.  You can hope for TY Hilton to drop to the end of the second round.  But with his adp of 14.87, it isn't likely to happen.  Gronk dropping is far more likely.  Otherwise, it seems you'll be drafting a quarterback.  If you truly hate Gurley, I think you should consider drafting Cooks, Fournette or Mixon.

 

"Pretty much common sense" when you made a statement about how 3.2 and 3.3 ypc was pretty standard these days.  C'mon...  And of course they're going to feed him the rock.  After the fiasco with draft picks spent on Goff, and spending a first round draft pick on him, as well as not having any other viable 2-3 down back on the roster, they have to hope he returns to form. They can't afford to be wrong about everything.  He didn't pass the eye test for me last year or make me think that the fault lied on everyone else.  I've said that i'm not so much anti-Gurley, as I am anti-Gurley at his current ADP.  I think he finishes outside the top 10 RB's again this year, that is value in the 3rd round.  I'm not saying breaking off big runs is a bad thing, or am counting it against him.  That's a great trait to have in a running back.  But how much are you willing to bet that he breaks off that many big runs again this year?  I'm not willing to hedge my bets on that.  Last year shows the results for when he can't. Crowell broke off a lot of big runs last year too, and now he'll be playing behind a top 5 line.  I almost hate to say that right now I prefer Crowell over Gurley.  I'd also get a lot of shares of Duke Johnson this year because if anything happens to Crowell, Johnson is going to be one of the most valuable commodities in fantasy.  And do you believe more in Mixon or Fournette?  The Bengals O-Line is dicey, and we don't know which Bortles or Jaguar offense is going to show up this year.  I might be going the Rodgers or Brady route unless someone homer's them before I'm able to, haha.  The mid to late picks of the second round this year feels more uneasy than a lot of others in years past for me.

 

 

EDIT:  Btw, where are you getting your ADP from?  Just curious, as I don't really like the sources I'm looking at.  

Edited by kdko
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20 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

KDKO,

 

I should also mention that I probably draft differently than most people. Im constantly mining for situations that are going to potentially improve. Im looking for a guy in every round that I think can drastically outperform his ADP or round. Where some guys are looking safe early and hoping to hit later on some gems, Im looking to hit in every round on a 12 TD WR or RB. My main high stakes league doesnt do playoffs. Strictly wins/losses of the double variety. It seems every year the winner has a team where literally everything clicks. And thats kind of the way I draft. Im rarely looking for something safe at any juncture. Im looking for a guy I think can peform like a 1st rounder in every round.

 

Nothing wrong with that brotha, as that can pay off huge.  Paid off for me last year when David Johnson fell to me at the 8th pick in PPR.  I'm sure you get gut feelings about those picks, and I hope you're right about Gurley since you're looking to invest.  I'm not planning on taking any shares of him so I can afford to be wrong :P  

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54 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Nothing wrong with that brotha, as that can pay off huge.  Paid off for me last year when David Johnson fell to me at the 8th pick in PPR.  I'm sure you get gut feelings about those picks, and I hope you're right about Gurley since you're looking to invest.  I'm not planning on taking any shares of him so I can afford to be wrong :P  

 

Must be nice. I want a spot in that league. Johnson never made it passed 4 in any league I was in.

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1 hour ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

Must be nice. I want a spot in that league. Johnson never made it passed 4 in any league I was in.


I was completely surprised, cause it's a big buy in league and I can confidently say 9/12 members are extremely solid.  I think a lot of them were skeptical.  Ironically, Zeke flew off the board at #2.

Edited by kdko
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20 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 Btw, where are you getting your ADP from?  Just curious, as I don't really like the sources I'm looking at.  

 

 

I use the MyFantasyLeague public league adps.  They are the most accurate I've found.  They are money leagues that all have the same rules.  PPR, 1qb-2rb-3wr-1te-1flex.  And make sure to use their public leagues adp and not their redraft adp.  Their redraft leagues all have different rules and right now about a third of the redraft leagues are actually dynasty leagues.

http://www03.myfantasyleague.com/2017/adp?COUNT=250&POS=*&ROOKIES=0&INJURED=0&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=3&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=

And here are the adp results from the last 19 years:

http://home.myfantasyleague.com/adp-rankings/

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  • 1 month later...

Anyone watch the preseason game?  He looked every bit the garbage that he was last year.   He runs in a straight line before getting the slightest contact and falling over, without so much as a wiggle or cut.  The volume is there, but the efficiency is not.  First preseason game but it still looks grim.  I think i'll be avoiding at all costs now, not even if he falls to the third.  I'd rather take Crowell/Miller before him.

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I don't watch preseason games for many reasons. Trying to gauge someone who only plays a series or two is ridiculous. Now if he looks like this come game 4 of the preseason then I might be skeptical but I firmly believe Gurley is a massive bounce back candidate and a steal at his current ADP, especially in PPR. 

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10 hours ago, kdko said:

Anyone watch the preseason game?  He looked every bit the garbage that he was last year.   He runs in a straight line before getting the slightest contact and falling over, without so much as a wiggle or cut.  The volume is there, but the efficiency is not.  First preseason game but it still looks grim.  I think i'll be avoiding at all costs now, not even if he falls to the third.  I'd rather take Crowell/Miller before him.

 

You are ready to jump ship after two pretty short series huh? I'm not....he also caught a pass...something I think you might see a bit of this year

 

 

https://theundefeated.com/features/nfl-la-rams-todd-gurley-call-it-a-comeback/?addata=espn:nfl:teams

 

This McVay kid is one of the brightest offensive minds in the game....the offensive creativity will improve by leaps and bounds from the last regime(which was abysmal). They've added Woods, Watkins, Everett and Kupp. If McVay and Goff get this passing game going its going to help Gurley. Having little success early against a fresh defense is one thing. But what about later in a game when defenses are a bit worn down? Gurley is a threat to break big gains. The offensive line also has two additions and needs time to gel and improve.

 

I guess we see things differently. You seem to think Gurley is Trent Richardson...I think hes talented.

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On 7/1/2017 at 9:13 AM, stethant said:

He will be better this year than last I agree - but if his ADP creeps into the 2nd round the value is gone. You're basically then assuming he repeats 2015.

 

I'm optimistic on Gurley but there are alot of moving parts here that give me pause. The biggest question mark is Goff - a RB can't run when you're down in virtually every game (see Crowell). Then he has to play Seattle and Arizona twice a year. The coach and the scheme are new.

 

Lots of potential but the uncertainty this year caps his value for me.

Going back to what I said July 1, my thinking hasn't changed much. In redraft, I'm more inclined not to buy this year (there's no value now at all), wait for him to prove it, and then potentially have to pay a 1st round price next year. IMO there are a ton of equally good questions about other RBs around his ADP range - so if that means I head towards a more solid WR then so be it.

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6 hours ago, stethant said:

Going back to what I said July 1, my thinking hasn't changed much. In redraft, I'm more inclined not to buy this year (there's no value now at all), wait for him to prove it, and then potentially have to pay a 1st round price next year. IMO there are a ton of equally good questions about other RBs around his ADP range - so if that means I head towards a more solid WR then so be it.

Agreed drafting Gurley around his ADP (2nd round) is drafting on hope... and I have hope for him just not a roster spot (with the 1st two picks).

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2 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

A porous offensive line, a weak QB, and another year facing 8 man fronts...no thanks.

 

What's funny, is that someone at Pro Football Focus crunched the numbers, and he actually faced less 8 man fronts than the average RB last year.  There was literally no excuse for him being as terrible as he was, except for uh...just being bad.

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