forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 9 hours ago, kdko said: What's funny, is that someone at Pro Football Focus crunched the numbers, and he actually faced less 8 man fronts than the average RB last year. There was literally no excuse for him being as terrible as he was, except for uh...just being bad. so what was the excuse for him averaging 4.8 per carry on 230 carries the year before? just dumb luck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 If I remember correctly...Gurley had 3-4 huge games in 2015 in which he scored TDs, and was averaging 5-6 yards per carry. He only played about 12 full games that season and there were only 4-5 times he rushed for over 4 yards per carry during that year. His numbers were skewed in 2015 by those monster games, the TDs, and them feeding him the ball. Last year I think he only had about 2 games where he rushed for 4 or more yards per carry and his TDs were few and far between, and then some games they just didn't feed him the ball very much at all. The few games I saw of the Rams last season, he just didn't look like he wanted to be there...was constantly getting stopped at or behind the line, wasn't very patient and hitting the few holes that were opening up for him, and looked like he was second guessing his routes. You'll most likely have to pay a 2nd round price for him this season as I'm sure someone in your league will take a chance on him...JMHO but there's way to much risk with him at that price. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 hour ago, ABearWithFurniture said: If I remember correctly...Gurley had 3-4 huge games in 2015 in which he scored TDs, and was averaging 5-6 yards per carry. He only played about 12 full games that season and there were only 4-5 times he rushed for over 4 yards per carry during that year. His numbers were skewed in 2015 by those monster games, the TDs, and them feeding him the ball. Last year I think he only had about 2 games where he rushed for 4 or more yards per carry and his TDs were few and far between, and then some games they just didn't feed him the ball very much at all. The few games I saw of the Rams last season, he just didn't look like he wanted to be there...was constantly getting stopped at or behind the line, wasn't very patient and hitting the few holes that were opening up for him, and looked like he was second guessing his routes. You'll most likely have to pay a 2nd round price for him this season as I'm sure someone in your league will take a chance on him...JMHO but there's way to much risk with him at that price. in 7 of those 12 games he averaged 4+ yards a carry....in 3 of those 5 in which he didn't he didn't even see double digit carries......in one of those 3 games he only had 6 carries...one of those games was also on the road in baltimore you simply want to point out how certain games skewed his numbers in the positive direction...but don't want to take into account anything that might have had a negative effect on his YPC AGAIN...you don't average 4.8 a carry on 230 carries...coming off a major knee injury...without having ability and talent..... as I mentioned previously....everyone was down on McCoy and murray going into last year......but OLs that ended up playing better than they were predicted to helped....the rams have worked on that and now have one of the better/creative player callers with them....and a qb that will now get all of the reps in his 2nd camp with a way more talented group of skills players around him.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 It's easy to be negative about players. I honestly believe some on this board only criticize players. It reminds of a friend who doesn't believe any woman is attractive enough for him. He had one super hot girlfriend 15 years ago and since then no girl ever meets his standards. He hasn't gotten laid in the last 15 years. Fantasy football is different because abstinence isn't an option. When the 24th pick comes along, you'll have to choose a player even if you don't think any player available is worthy of a second round pick. Todd Gurley has workhorse potential. He is a running back who projects to get 250-300 carries. Workhorse running backs are now a rare commodity. Clearly, he is risky. But all of the players with 3rd round adps are risky except for the quarterbacks. Here are the players with 3rd round adps. If you deem all the the players with 3rd round adps to be unworthy of a second round pick, then your words ring hollow. DeAndre Hopkins Aaron Rodgers Demaryius Thomas Lamar Miller Travis Kelce Keenan Allen Isaiah Crowell Sammy Watkins Christian McCaffrey Allen Robinson Terrrelle Pryor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said: It's easy to be negative about players. I honestly believe some on this board only criticize players. It reminds of a friend who doesn't believe any woman is attractive enough for him. He had one super hot girlfriend 15 years ago and since then no girl ever meets his standards. He hasn't gotten laid in the last 15 years. Fantasy football is different because abstinence isn't an option. When the 24th pick comes along, you'll have to choose a player even if you don't think any player available is worthy of a second round pick. Todd Gurley has workhorse potential. He is a running back who projects to get 250-300 carries. Workhorse running backs are now a rare commodity. Clearly, he is risky. But all of the players with 3rd round adps are risky except for the quarterbacks. Here are the players with 3rd round adps. If you deem all the the players with 3rd round adps to be unworthy of a second round pick, then your words ring hollow. DeAndre Hopkins Aaron Rodgers Demaryius Thomas Lamar Miller Travis Kelce Keenan Allen Isaiah Crowell Sammy Watkins Christian McCaffrey Allen Robinson Terrrelle Pryor I honestly think of that list, not including the qb(because I wont take a qb there ever), the only guys id be happy to take or feel ok about are mccaffrey and pryor....and of course mccaffrey is still a major question mark at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Most of us on these boards play in leagues with others on here and it's easier said players we don't like than players we are targeting in our drafts and FA. But go ahead and talk Gurley up...maybe you'll help someone scoop him up mid-2nd round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 2 hours ago, michaelredd9 said: It's easy to be negative about players. I honestly believe some on this board only criticize players. It reminds of a friend who doesn't believe any woman is attractive enough for him. He had one super hot girlfriend 15 years ago and since then no girl ever meets his standards. He hasn't gotten laid in the last 15 years. Fantasy football is different because abstinence isn't an option. When the 24th pick comes along, you'll have to choose a player even if you don't think any player available is worthy of a second round pick. Todd Gurley has workhorse potential. He is a running back who projects to get 250-300 carries. Workhorse running backs are now a rare commodity. Clearly, he is risky. But all of the players with 3rd round adps are risky except for the quarterbacks. Here are the players with 3rd round adps. If you deem all the the players with 3rd round adps to be unworthy of a second round pick, then your words ring hollow. DeAndre Hopkins Aaron Rodgers Demaryius Thomas Lamar Miller Travis Kelce Keenan Allen Isaiah Crowell Sammy Watkins Christian McCaffrey Allen Robinson Terrrelle Pryor As strange as it is to say, I'd pick Miller, or Crowell over Gurley at this point. A-Rod too. Crowell has only improved over his career, and that Browns line is going to be scary good this year. If you can cuff Johnson too you can be in a really good position. The Browns were in flux like the Rams last year but their RB's still made a good return on their ADP. You're getting on best case scenario Gurley this year to get a return on his 2nd round ADP. We've seen how low that floor can be for him when things aren't going his way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, kdko said: As strange as it is to say, I'd pick Miller, or Crowell over Gurley at this point. A-Rod too. Crowell has only improved over his career, and that Browns line is going to be scary good this year. If you can cuff Johnson too you can be in a really good position. The Browns were in flux like the Rams last year but their RB's still made a good return on their ADP. You're getting on best case scenario Gurley this year to get a return on his 2nd round ADP. We've seen how low that floor can be for him when things aren't going his way. Duke Johnson is going to be lined up in the slot a lot this year, and probably not the backup to Crowell so his value is likely to be more than just as handcuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Just now, stevegrab said: Duke Johnson is going to be lined up in the slot a lot this year, and probably not the backup to Crowell so his value is likely to be more than just as handcuff. I think that's even better. He's put up great PPR numbers to begin with, regardless of being a cuff. If they have him lining up everywhere we'll probably see a similar situation to Montgomery's last year. Duke will still be listed as a RB, but be seeing far more snaps than in past years. That could pay huge dividends especially in PPR. That's why I think locking down this backfield is a must, much in the same way I think it's great to lock up Atlanta's and Tennessee's. Their auxiliary backs have inherent flex value anyway, and are surely going to be more involved this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 3 hours ago, michaelredd9 said: Todd Gurley has workhorse potential. He is a running back who projects to get 250-300 carries. Workhorse running backs are now a rare commodity. Clearly, he is risky. But all of the players with 3rd round adps are risky except for the quarterbacks. Here are the players with 3rd round adps. If you deem all the the players with 3rd round adps to be unworthy of a second round pick, then your words ring hollow. Not sure where you are getting his 3rd round ADP from...everything I've been seeing he's going around pick #20 which puts him squarely in the 2nd round range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 17 minutes ago, ABearWithFurniture said: Not sure where you are getting his 3rd round ADP from...everything I've been seeing he's going around pick #20 which puts him squarely in the 2nd round range? Yeah, he's going in the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 2 hours ago, kdko said: I think that's even better. He's put up great PPR numbers to begin with, regardless of being a cuff. If they have him lining up everywhere we'll probably see a similar situation to Montgomery's last year. Duke will still be listed as a RB, but be seeing far more snaps than in past years. That could pay huge dividends especially in PPR. That's why I think locking down this backfield is a must, much in the same way I think it's great to lock up Atlanta's and Tennessee's. Their auxiliary backs have inherent flex value anyway, and are surely going to be more involved this year. GB didn't have a viable RB that is a large part of Montgomery doing so well, the Browns still have Crowell and he will be he workhorse. So far reports in camp are Duke is pretty much a slot WR with a RB tag, not being used in RB packages much. You can watch for yourself, Browns host the GIants on MNF this coming week. My main point initially is he isn't the handcuff and may not be used much as a RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 minute ago, stevegrab said: GB didn't have a viable RB that is a large part of Montgomery doing... Fixed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 58 minutes ago, stevegrab said: GB didn't have a viable RB that is a large part of Montgomery doing so well, the Browns still have Crowell and he will be he workhorse. So far reports in camp are Duke is pretty much a slot WR with a RB tag, not being used in RB packages much. You can watch for yourself, Browns host the GIants on MNF this coming week. My main point initially is he isn't the handcuff and may not be used much as a RB. I still think that if Crowell would go down, they would have Duke Johnson run behind that line. The kid is so talented with the ball in his hands, and that O-Line would give him plenty of room to run. Who else would be running the ball? Looking at their depth chart: Matt Dayes, Terrence Magee, Brandon Wilds. Never heard of any of these guys. The work would go to Duke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 4 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said: Not sure where you are getting his 3rd round ADP from...everything I've been seeing he's going around pick #20 which puts him squarely in the 2nd round range? If you say you would not draft him in the second round, that means players with adps in the third round you would choose over him. If you are saying that you would never draft him in the second round, but that you have him number 23 on your board, then you might end up choosing him in the second round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 39 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said: If you say you would not draft him in the second round, that means players with adps in the third round you would choose over him. If you are saying that you would never draft him in the second round, but that you have him number 23 on your board, then you might end up choosing him in the second round. I could not draft him on a boat. I will not draft him with a goat. I will not draft him in the rain. I will not draft him on a train. Not in the dark! Not in a tree! Not in a car! How can this be! Not in the second round, Please don't frown. Not in the third, Just fly the bird. No forth, or fifth, Okay, maybe after a fifth of whiskey... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Def. Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 He went 3.03 in a 12 team with 1 RB, 2 WR, 3 Flex (RB/WR/TE) for starters. Would of been higher if 2 RB required. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 I have mixed feelings on this cat but mostly negative. You can show me all the stats for and against and I'm still not sure if he's a legitimate RB1 or 2. but with where you have to get him, he's going as an RB1, most likely. I think that's too rich for my blood. I hope I'm right and someone gets stuck with a dud. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 18 hours ago, kdko said: I still think that if Crowell would go down, they would have Duke Johnson run behind that line. The kid is so talented with the ball in his hands, and that O-Line would give him plenty of room to run. Who else would be running the ball? Looking at their depth chart: Matt Dayes, Terrence Magee, Brandon Wilds. Never heard of any of these guys. The work would go to Duke. Matt Dayes is getting a lot of work and praise in camp, he was a late round pick with higher talent. He was projected as a fourth round pick, then tumbled after his workouts hurt his stock. 29 RB went in front of him, and he's said I simply think the Browns plan to use Duke more as a receiver, and if Crowell is hurt they don't want to tamper with that to move him to full time starting RB. Talking with a co-worker who follows Browns more than I do (went to scrimmage, watched the whole first pre-season game, listens to radio shows) says that Duke won't be getting a ton of receptions and yards in the slot, more as 3rd receiver. But he does think that Dayes is very good and could replace Crowell early in the season. Again my main point goes back to Duke isn't the handcuff. I understand why you disagree and think these nobodies have a chance to replace him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 hour ago, stevegrab said: Matt Dayes is getting a lot of work and praise in camp, he was a late round pick with higher talent. He was projected as a fourth round pick, then tumbled after his workouts hurt his stock. 29 RB went in front of him, and he's said I simply think the Browns plan to use Duke more as a receiver, and if Crowell is hurt they don't want to tamper with that to move him to full time starting RB. Talking with a co-worker who follows Browns more than I do (went to scrimmage, watched the whole first pre-season game, listens to radio shows) says that Duke won't be getting a ton of receptions and yards in the slot, more as 3rd receiver. But he does think that Dayes is very good and could replace Crowell early in the season. Again my main point goes back to Duke isn't the handcuff. I understand why you disagree and think these nobodies have a chance to replace him. Interesting, it's good to hear about other RB's in Cleveland other than the obvious 2 that are being drafted. I haven't heard one word about any of these other guys, which is strange, because of how potent that line could be this year and how much we've heard about other rookies and backups in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bowman Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Dayes did look decent in the first preseason game. He seemed to have good vision and quick feet. I'd agree that he is more likely the backup rather than Duke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 21, 2017 Author Share Posted August 21, 2017 Sooooo....Goff goes 16-20 with a TD...gurley averages 4.8 a carry and scores a TD and catches a pass....so why arent guys lining up to praise gurley now since it seems 1 preseason game tells the whole story ???? The Rams offense is going to be relatively productive this season im telling you.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said: Sooooo....Goff goes 16-20 with a TD...gurley averages 4.8 a carry and scores a TD and catches a pass....so why arent guys lining up to praise gurley now since it seems 1 preseason game tells the whole story ???? The Rams offense is going to be relatively productive this season im telling you.... Nah, he still sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (Partly kidding). He did play a lot better, the line opened up some holes, and Goff actually looked like a competent QB. We'll have to see how this develops! Definitely looked like a better Rams offense than last year. Still gonna be a hefty price to pay to get Gurley, and if he does better his stock could go up and make him an even riskier pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Follow up on Browns Duke Johnson, with Isaih Crowell a late scratch (reported as a groin injury but he was dressed) Duke did get the start at RB and looked pretty good, running some inside, outside and sprinting out for passes, didn't see him lining up much as slot receiver. Not sure if this was a change of pace from what's gone on in camp so far or a sign of what will go on in the season. Probably won't see much of the next game, at least until Sunday when I return from a trip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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