tazinib1 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Gregg Rosenthal mentioned on the most recent Around the NFL podcast that he's heard Carlos Hyde could be a surprise training camp cut. A former longtime Rotoworld editor, Rosenthal now writes for NFL.com, frequently appears on NFL Network, and has cultivated enough connections that what he's hearing is noteworthy. Since the 49ers' new regime took over, coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch have been outwardly clear that San Francisco's running back situation needs upgrading, whether by signing (Tim Hightower), trading for (Kapri Bibbs), and drafting (Joe Williams) backs or Shanahan's suggestion that Hyde has personal improvement to make. We still believe Hyde could fetch something via trade, even in a contract year at a devalued position. The Niners would probably be willing to part with Hyde for a fourth-round pick, if not less. Source: Around the NFL Podcast Jul 24 - 5:43 PM I mentioned Joe Williams just yesterday to a kid that drafted Hyde. He laughed. I laughed back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Now all they need is to upgrade one of the worst O-lines, one of the worst schedules and get a passing game out of a QB who never started a full season in his nine years on five different teams. I like Williams next year a lot more than this year. I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdybaz Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Was recently reading how Joe Williams (whom I like) doesn't make much if the blocking is suspect. Meanwhile, Matt Breida has reportedly been the best player at their minicamp. Someone to keep an eye on, and someone I'll be taking late in my dynasty draft in at least one league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 I pity the fool that drafts Carlos Hyde 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 You guys are crazy for discounting Hyde this early, and jumping aboard the Joe Williams bandwagon. There's been a lot of hype and speculation surrounding Williams, but nothing from Shanahan or anyone else of note. People also forget that Joe Williams is a headcase. Gregg Rosenthal 'heard this from a little birdy' also doesn't hold a lot of weight. Who was this little birdy? A beat writer, someone from the team, front office, or people like you and I? IMO, Hyde will still start the season as their lead back, with Hightower also in the mix as the cop back as he was paid to come in and do. Hyde was performing as a RB1 before going down last year, and still averaged 4.6YPC, despite running behind THE worst o-line in football, with an offense comprised of Gabbert, Torrey Smith, and Jeremy Kerley. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) And I agree with tdybaz, Breida is the guy who I think i'll spend a late round lottery pick on. An UDFA with a chip on his shoulder, that wow'ed everyone in training camp. Joe Williams also showed up to camp completely out of shape. Apparently he looked good once he locked in, but he shouldn't need people reminding him to stay in shape. That's the kind of motivation and drive that separates future somebodies, from future nobodies. http://www.knbr.com/2017/06/27/john-lynch-names-a-handful-of-49ers-players-most-hes-excited-about/ "The GM also mentioned rookie Joe Williams showed up to the facility out of shape in April, but left on a really strong note." Edited July 25, 2017 by kdko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Thing about Hyde last year, aside from he has zero percent chance of staying healthy, is that he only averaged 3.8 YPC if you take away Weeks 14 and 15 in games that they lost badly and went against the Jets and Falcons who had terrible rush defenses. I would agree there was zero pass offense to concern anyone. But Hyde is not a fit for that new offense, has never been durable and doesn't much catch the ball. His inability to remain healthy is probably his biggest knock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 1 hour ago, DMD said: Thing about Hyde last year, aside from he has zero percent chance of staying healthy, is that he only averaged 3.8 YPC if you take away Weeks 14 and 15 in games that they lost badly and went against the Jets and Falcons who had terrible rush defenses. I would agree there was zero pass offense to concern anyone. But Hyde is not a fit for that new offense, has never been durable and doesn't much catch the ball. His inability to remain healthy is probably his biggest knock. Hyde is not a fit for the offense, yet has taken 100% of first team snaps this offseason. Joe Williams will be a non-factor this year unless Hyde goes down with injury, and even then it will be Hightower that will benefit the most from that. Williams does have value in dynasty leagues though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 6 hours ago, kdko said: Hyde is not a fit for the offense, yet has taken 100% of first team snaps this offseason. The 49ers are in rebuilding mode so giving Hyde first team snaps in early summer isn't indicative of much. They probably want to see if he can adapt to the new system before giving up on him. And more importantly, they probably want to trade him. Acting like Hyde is part of their plans might force a team to give up a 7th round pick instead of a conditional 7th round pick. So 5 different guys have the chance to be the lead back on a team with no quarterback and a horrible offensive line. I'm not wasting a roster spot on any of these jokers. And drafting Carlos Hyde at his current adp of 48 might be the worst pick of the fantasy draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said: The 49ers are in rebuilding mode so giving Hyde first team snaps in early summer isn't indicative of much. They probably want to see if he can adapt to the new system before giving up on him. And more importantly, they probably want to trade him. Acting like Hyde is part of their plans might force a team to give up a 7th round pick instead of a conditional 7th round pick. So 5 different guys have the chance to be the lead back on a team with no quarterback and a horrible offensive line. I'm not wasting a roster spot on any of these jokers. And drafting Carlos Hyde at his current adp of 48 might be the worst pick of the fantasy draft. I didn't say i'd be drafting him myself, but I think the hype surrounding Williams is ridiculous right now, with little to no evidence to support it. He has 2 talented backs ahead of him on the depth chart, and I'm not even sure that he's better than Breida or Bibbs. Here's something from Shanahan's own mouth: "Any talented running back fits your offense. There’s not one type of running back that you need. If you’re a skilled runner, you know how to hit the right gaps, you run through arm tackles and when they block it for 2 (yards), you still get 4 (yards), which means you’re running hard. Carlos has that skill set, and I’m looking forward to working with him.” “We’re inheriting a tough, talented back.” “I’m looking forward to getting with him because I know he’s a solid back. I know he had a great college career, and I believe we can get a lot more out of him.” Edited July 25, 2017 by kdko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 25, 2017 Author Share Posted July 25, 2017 I doubt Hyde is a 49'er by the end of pre-season. He will be profiled, the hype will return then they will get a 4th round pick out of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 1 hour ago, tazinib1 said: I doubt Hyde is a 49'er by the end of pre-season. He will be profiled, the hype will return then they will get a 4th round pick out of him. Do you have anything to support that notion? At this point in the offseason they wouldn't be able to get a 4th rounder for him. If his stock plummets, i'll be there to catch him. If he gets traded, he could be a solid starter for several other teams. I don't see it happening though. Hyde will continue being the starter here, as he's still the most talented back on that roster at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 If I were the Ravens I'd be thinking about giving SF a call for Hyde. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 26, 2017 Author Share Posted July 26, 2017 (edited) 19 hours ago, kdko said: Do you have anything to support that notion? At this point in the offseason they wouldn't be able to get a 4th rounder for him. If his stock plummets, i'll be there to catch him. If he gets traded, he could be a solid starter for several other teams. I don't see it happening though. Hyde will continue being the starter here, as he's still the most talented back on that roster at this time. Nope. Just my amazingly high football acumen. Edited July 26, 2017 by tazinib1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 On 7/25/2017 at 6:52 PM, kdko said: I think the hype surrounding Williams is ridiculous right now, with little to no evidence to support it. Williams is intriguing because he is the player who was probably handpicked by possible guru Kyle Shanahan. He is a home run swing that has a cheap price with an adp of 140. 5% chance he is great, 15% chance he is good, 80% chance he is a flop. I like drafting super high risk players with a high ceiling with my lower picks. Out of 4 home run picks, I'll hope one is worth keeping and I'll cut the others early and have 3 roster spots open for free agency. I hate drafting high floor/low ceiling players who are never bad enough to cut but not good enough to want to start. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 27, 2017 Share Posted July 27, 2017 25 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said: Williams is intriguing because he is the player who was probably handpicked by possible guru Kyle Shanahan. He is a home run swing that has a cheap price with an adp of 140. 5% chance he is great, 15% chance he is good, 80% chance he is a flop. I like drafting super high risk players with a high ceiling with my lower picks. Out of 4 home run picks, I'll hope one is worth keeping and I'll cut the others early and have 3 roster spots open for free agency. I hate drafting high floor/low ceiling players who are never bad enough to cut but not good enough to want to start. I think if you want a homerun swing there are better options than a rookie headcase, playing in a team's transition year, buried behind 2 (arguably 3) veteran running backs. If it's assumed that Carlos Hyde or Hightower get the early down role (which they will as they're bigger, more powerful backs), then Williams MIGHT be relegated to a third down role. But then you have the RB grades from pro football focus: Joe Williams has poor receiving grades, and poor blocking grades. How many third down, rookie running backs are going to handle third down responsibilities if they aren't good at receiving or blocking? I think a better homerun swing would be Jeremy McNichols from the Buccaneers. He's got amazing talent, and is in one of the best offenses this year in my opinion. Doug Martin will start the season suspended, and it's assumed it will be Rodgers job, but McNichols should be competing with him for touches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cole99 Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 who Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Muto Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 On 7/25/2017 at 2:06 AM, DMD said: Thing about Hyde last year, aside from he has zero percent chance of staying healthy, is that he only averaged 3.8 YPC if you take away Weeks 14 and 15 in games that they lost badly and went against the Jets and Falcons who had terrible rush defenses. I would agree there was zero pass offense to concern anyone. But Hyde is not a fit for that new offense, has never been durable and doesn't much catch the ball. His inability to remain healthy is probably his biggest knock. If you take away Ajayi's three 200 yards games............ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 29, 2017 Share Posted July 29, 2017 18 minutes ago, Henry Muto said: If you take away Ajayi's three 200 yards games............ And that is a major concern about Ajayi. Two of them went against BUF. Take away those games and he averaged 3.8 YPC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 Take away the best 2 weeks of any running back and they probably averaged 3.8 ypc. Cherry picking is a fallacy. Those weeks happened. You can't take that away. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 It is not taking it away, it is recognizing that you should not judge someone on the exception instead of the rule. And most leagues are not total points so it matters greatly what a player does weekly. Here are where his weekly performances ended up in a PPR league from 2016 dnp, 35, 36, 40. 25, 3, 3, 6, 23, 28, 18, 17, 38, 47, 3 He was a difference maker in four games - no question. But he was average or worse in about 75% of the games. That still has fantasy value of course, assuming he can repeat the same number of big games. Although he would run for over 200 yards on the Bills twice, he only had the #3 and #4 best games against them (Forte and Bell had better). His other 200 yard game was against PIT but wasn't the biggest fantasy game they allowed an RB all year either. It is not cherry picking to me. Using past performances to predict future ones, it is always more important to look at what usually happens instead of what only occasionally happened. Total point leagues are different in that but it seems more likely that he will reproduce the sort of games he usually had last year than to replicate the three 200 yard games. But at least he had them and they helped to make him into a full-time back which was a major step up from his rookie year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 (edited) Lol. Edited September 4, 2017 by kdko Fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 1 hour ago, DMD said: It is not taking it away, it is recognizing that you should not judge someone on the exception instead of the rule. And most leagues are not total points so it matters greatly what a player does weekly. Here are where his weekly performances ended up in a PPR league from 2016 dnp, 35, 36, 40. 25, 3, 3, 6, 23, 28, 18, 17, 38, 47, 3 He was a difference maker in four games - no question. But he was average or worse in about 75% of the games. That still has fantasy value of course, assuming he can repeat the same number of big games. Although he would run for over 200 yards on the Bills twice, he only had the #3 and #4 best games against them (Forte and Bell had better). His other 200 yard game was against PIT but wasn't the biggest fantasy game they allowed an RB all year either. It is not cherry picking to me. Using past performances to predict future ones, it is always more important to look at what usually happens instead of what only occasionally happened. Total point leagues are different in that but it seems more likely that he will reproduce the sort of games he usually had last year than to replicate the three 200 yard games. But at least he had them and they helped to make him into a full-time back which was a major step up from his rookie year. I think a lot of the blame for his poor games lies with his offensive line. Pro Football Focus rated them as the 30th best last year. The fact that he did as well as he did behind such a bad offensive line is impressive. Asking a running back to be consistent when running behind such a ragtag group is unrealistic. Unfortunately, Miami didn't do much to improve their offensive line this off-season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 I took away the 4 median games of 30 different RBs, and divided that by 100 and then times'd that by 6, then averaged all that by 1...and I think I came up with 42 for 3 of them. Interpreting at will... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 20 hours ago, LordOpie said: We were told there would be no math... Hopefully for Bear no geopraphy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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