huge draft pick trade question?

[wakefan3804]

.5 ppr 10 teams 1 keeper 2 flex

I give: Picks 1, 61, 91

I get: Picks 17, 24, 37

 

Trade would leave me without a first round pick but give me 7 of the first 41 picks. 17, 20, 21, 24, 37, 40, 41.

Id likely take elliott with pick 20 or 21 as my long term keeper. Is it worth passing up on DJ for the amount of depth id be getting?

[wakefan3804]

bump... thoughts?

[mkecrew]

Yes absolutely. The first 2 rounds doesn't make or break your team. Its the players that you take in the mid to late rounds that have the most impact, especially when trying to make a playoff run. You have the ability to really deepen your team and then use that as leverage in trades throughout the year. 

[robotpimp]

I think it's too much.  you probably will not see Elliot and even if so you'll see a depletion of almost all viable RB starters with a clear lion share carry role, and a significant cut into the WR pool, you'll probably chase all your positions.  It would be better to draft straight up and trade DJ than get a late round 2 pick and a bunch of others, yes extra picks are awesome but at the expense of a lot of missed opportunity for top tier talent including the first pick of the draft.

[Watt's Up]

Also, I think this trade my hurt you in future years -- imagine having DJ every year for the next few years, vs whatever you get at pick 17. Maybe Elliot is still there, but in a keeper league with no penalties for keeping I would bet against it. 

 

It's a fair trade, but I would have trouble pulling the trigger because of the keeper issue. If you do take it, I would try to grab Cook, Fournette, and Mixon with hopes that one could be a long term keeper.

 

 

[wakefan3804]

1 minute ago, Watt's Up said:

Also, I think this trade my hurt you in future years -- imagine having DJ every year for the next few years, vs whatever you get at pick 17. Maybe Elliot is still there, but in a keeper league with no penalties for keeping I would bet against it. 

 

It's a fair trade, but I would have trouble pulling the trigger because of the keeper issue. If you do take it, I would try to grab Cook, Fournette, and Mixon with hopes that one could be a long term keeper.

 

 

for the keeper, you lose the round earlier than where you drafted a player, so first round picks you can't keep

[Watt's Up]

Ahh. Well, that makes it a little better. Personally I would probably still go with DJ. You're trading partner has 4th pick overall and wants to stack 2 elite players. I wouldn't give him that, but if he really wants DJ maybe he will trade for switching 1st round picks and giving up his 2nd rounder to you. That's a trade I would take.

[robotpimp]

I mean that's sort of an advantage to get extra guys in those 'meaty' rounds but I think you have to hit on a round 1 player if you have the early pick.  should the pick be a few spots to the right I'd be more inclined to do it, because it's DJ looming in the balance I think if you keep him and draft you might reconsider how much more you like your team starting with a RB.

 

[wakefan3804]

Just now, Watt's Up said:

Ahh. Well, that makes it a little better. Personally I would probably still go with DJ. You're trading partner has 4th pick overall and wants to stack 2 elite players. I wouldn't give him that, but if he really wants DJ maybe he will trade for switching 1st round picks and giving up his 2nd rounder to you. That's a trade I would take.

if he gives up his first round pick the only thing he is willing to give up is swapping picks in a couple of other rounds for me to move up 3 spots in a round... thats not worth the drop off of DJ/bell to Julio imo

[robotpimp]

BTW who's your keeper?  Or is it the first year of the league?

[wakefan3804]

Just now, robotpimp said:

I mean that's sort of an advantage to get extra guys in those 'meaty' rounds but I think you have to hit on a round 1 player if you have the early pick.  should the pick be a few spots to the right I'd be more inclined to do it, because it's DJ looming in the balance I think if you keep him and draft you might reconsider how much more you like your team starting with a RB.

 

If i took the trade, my plan would be banking on Murray, Ajayi, Elliott, howard, or gronk falling to 17. Then turning around and drafting elliott and gurley at picks 20, 21. Then best player available at 24. Maybe even reach for mccaffrey, crowell or pryor. then with picks 37, 40, 41 go after hyde, cook, and landry.

[wakefan3804]

1 minute ago, robotpimp said:

BTW who's your keeper?  Or is it the first year of the league?

first year keeper. Ive won the league three years in a row, its with my friends who don't always make the best of drafting decisions. Im sure rodgers, fournette, and some other people who shouldn't be second round picks, will be selected there.

[Watt's Up]

5 minutes ago, wakefan3804 said:

if he gives up his first round pick the only thing he is willing to give up is swapping picks in a couple of other rounds for me to move up 3 spots in a round... thats not worth the drop off of DJ/bell to Julio imo

Pshhhh...nope, not for that. I'd need a 3rd round pick at least. Well, good luck -- could work out either way. 

[robotpimp]

5 minutes ago, wakefan3804 said:

If i took the trade, my plan would be banking on Murray, Ajayi, Elliott, howard, or gronk falling to 17. Then turning around and drafting elliott and gurley at picks 20, 21. Then best player available at 24. Maybe even reach for mccaffrey, crowell or pryor. then with picks 37, 40, 41 go after hyde, cook, and landry.

Dude, if you're ok with that crop of players (and it sounds like you are) I'd totally be fine with it especially since you get to keep from a larger pool next year.  

Since you've already researched groups of players in those areas and are ok with it, I think it totally works.  The thing is the other team is going to be trash.. He'll have DJ but that's a lot to give away you're just sniping from a different pool, they're without which is what would really hurt.

[wakefan3804]

2 minutes ago, robotpimp said:

Dude, if you're ok with that crop of players (and it sounds like you are) I'd totally be fine with it especially since you get to keep from a larger pool next year.  

Since you've already researched groups of players in those areas and are ok with it, I think it totally works.  The thing is the other team is going to be trash.. He'll have DJ but that's a lot to give away you're just sniping from a different pool, they're without which is what would really hurt.

im ok with it, I'm hesitant because I'm giving up a top 2 player for guys that I'm hoping are all top 10-15 in their position rather than taking the almost for sure thing in bell and DJ. 

[robotpimp]

1 minute ago, wakefan3804 said:

im ok with it, I'm hesitant because I'm giving up a top 2 player for guys that I'm hoping are all top 10-15 in their position rather than taking the almost for sure thing in bell and DJ. 

heh, at least you're analyzing it both ways objectively.. if you can visualize it working either way then why not do it.  there's the safe way (DJ/AB) @ 1.. and there is the riskier but upside/reward way, it's 10 teams you can still get a ton of value in those 2nd/3rd/4th rounds.. you'll have your starters done and can deep dive on other guys.