beamer59 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 The projection only gives him 40 yards. The justification was: Morris Claiborne held Amari Cooper to only 4-33 and Zay Jones to 1-21 the previous week. That bodes poorly for Parker this week. Landry should still turn in a good day with a good shot at a touchdown. The "Start/Bench" list has him as a Great Start. ESPN says: Parker led the Dolphins in routes run and enjoyed an average depth of target nearly 15 yards downfield in Week 2. Now facing a suspect Jets secondary that has allowed the fifth-most yards per catch to wideouts since the start of last season, Parker is poised for a solid fantasy performance. So is he a great start? Or can he only be counted for 40 yards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dylansimon Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 He's playing the jets who do not look good whatsoever this year. Cooper had an off week last week (IMO). I would definitely start him unless you have better options at receiver, in which case he's a very solid flex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Different people have different opinions, the projects and other data on the Huddle site will NOT always agree. The person writing the Start/Bench thinks he's a great start, the projections guy thinks he's only due for 40 yards, hardly great for a WR (though it depends on # of rec and if PPR). These types of questions come up every year, and that is pretty much the reasoning, and it makes sene. Some sites won't allow contraditory opnions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beamer59 Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 I know they are from two different guys. I do like getting the multiple opinions. I kind of like that Dorey's explanation gives detail about the individual match up and not just the Jets are bad. So I was leaning more towards Dorey's opinion. Many times I have had elite WR's in the past get shut down by top corners, so I'm wondering if that is what is likely to happen here. Is Claiborne that good? How much will he be on Parker vs Landry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 (edited) It does seem that whoever Morris covers could have a down game and the other receivers could have a hugh game. When one cornerback is so much better than his teammates, a quarterback won't even look to throw in his direction. So is Morris going to be covering Parker? Morris played pretty much exclusively on the left side of the field last year on the Cowboys. Is he doing the same this year? It seems that DeVante Parker is more similar to Michael Crabtree and Jarvis Landry is more similar to Amari Cooper. Though Landry is a slot receiver and Cooper doesn't play in the slot often despite having a skill set similar to a slot receiver. I have Parker on one team and Landry on another team and I might bench one if it is confirmed that Morris will be covering them. My guess is that it'll be hard to predict who Morris is going to cover since there isn't much precedence with this being only his third game with the Jets. Edited September 21, 2017 by michaelredd9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 DMD in the house going to drop some wisdom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 The tough thing about matching up wideouts and cornerbacks is that the offense is going to do whatever they must to move the ball as well as they can. That can mean that the WR stays in place and others fill in with more work for that game. It could mean that they will move the WR around the formation. The top WR will move all over. That makes it harder to track where they might play. By the same token, the defense is committed to stopping whatever the offense is doing. That may mean leaving a "natural" matchup alone (meaning RCB matches on LWR, LCB on the RWR) or in some cases committing a shutdown guy (Josh Norman, Aqib Talib, Janoris Jenkins, etc) onto a WR no matter where he goes. Sometimes they will tell you that in advance. Sometimes they will not tell you. Sometimes they tell you but they are lying (go figure). And sometimes one or the other gets hurt and it doesn't matter. When I approach projecting for a player, I consider it always in the context of that individual game and for RB and QB, I will consider the opposing defense as an entire unit. A defense is a sort of organic, reactive thing. That an opposing defense has a great DT or LB is great for them, but it just means the offense is going to work around them if it is a problem. So matching up QB and RB (and really TE) is more a matter of how the offense uses that particular player compared to what the opposing defense as a whole generally does (keeping this kinda simplistic). WR is a different animal than any other offensive position. First off, they run down the field into the heart of a defense and catch a ball with no blockers (Patriot pick plays notwithstanding). If one guy on your team is a headcase and an egomaniac, make him a #1 WR because he has to be fearless and full of too much confidence to realize he is going to be killed on most plays. They are also the only position that often is tackled by just one player who was committed to defending him and that was running along with him. Safeties will come over and help usually but the most important part of the WR job is run downfield and catch the ball at the exact point the QB assumes you will be. If you run after the catch, all the better. But Job #1 is get open, at the right spot, and catch it. The most predictive relationship between a defense and an offensive player is the WR-CB pairing so long as neither side deviates from where the receiver and cornerback naturally line up. Bringing all this back where we started, I track the top cornerbacks and Claiborne is above average. He's been better than RCB Buster Skrines. They could move Parker around but so far they don't usually. Kenny Stills takes the traditional deep routes on the other side. Jarvis Landry in the slot tends to play the possession role in the middle of the field. You see WR movement much more when there is an elite WR and the rest are not nearly as good. Think AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, etc. But Parker isn't in that class yet. It only takes one broken play for a WR to get a 90-yard TD. And you have to factor in what the rest of the offense is likely to do. Giving this much time to this means I am probably guaranteed to be wrong. I may be wrong, but I can usually explain why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beamer59 Posted September 21, 2017 Author Share Posted September 21, 2017 Right or wrong, impressive reply! Although it seems like you already explaining why you would be wrong in parts of the reply. Thanks Dave and MichaelRedd9! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Great post DMD, you must have had some extra time or pulled it from a book of explanations. Anybody who makes as many predictions as you do is gauranteed to be wrong most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Enjoyed that explanation as well. (i would've given the thumbs up emoticon but can't find it..) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 3 hours ago, Jackass said: Enjoyed that explanation as well. (i would've given the thumbs up emoticon but can't find it..) : tup : Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 So, there is no crystal ball...it's all just logic and opinion. It's just like that day in 9th grade when you find out that Groundhog's day is a farce! So sad... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, ABearWithFurniture said: So, there is no crystal ball...it's all just logic and opinion. It's just like that day in 9th grade when you find out that Groundhog's day is a farce! So sad... We just check the huddle, shake the magic 8-ball, and click submit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, ABearWithFurniture said: So, there is no crystal ball Sometimes it is very predictable. Some defenses have their top corner shadow the offense's top receiver the whole game regardless of where the receiver lines up. This is especially true when the defense has a shutdown corner. Morris Claiborne isn't a shutdown corner but he is significantly better than the other Jets corners. While in Dallas, Morris started his career playing almost exclusively on the right side of the defense. Then he switched to playing almost exclusively on the left side of the defense. In this type of situation, an offense can put a receiver on the other side of the field to guarantee that they won't be matched up against that corner. I took a look at the Jets highlights from this year. Morris is lining up on both sides of the field. He even has lined up on the slot receiver at times. My guess is that he covered Amari the entire game. If the Dolphins only had one elite receiver, I think Morris would for sure be covering him. With Landry and Parker both being elite, it's a more difficult call. Edited September 22, 2017 by michaelredd9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABearWithFurniture Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 I'm sorry my man, if that's your picture you're almost as ugly as Aaron Rodgers...feel bad for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 1 hour ago, ABearWithFurniture said: I'm sorry my man, if that's your picture you're almost as ugly as Aaron Rodgers...feel bad for you. Don't hate me cause I'm beautiful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikesVikes Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 A defense is an organic reactive thing...Now the receiver is going to get attacked by an alien ooze that attaches to their faces. I hope it doesn't mess with the ones on my rosters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 I'd worry more about Casey Keenum throwing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 (edited) Buster Skrine is only 5'9". DeVante Parker is 6'3". DeVante Parker isn't good at getting separation but he is good at coming down with jump balls. Jay Cutler isn't afraid to throw him jump balls in coverage. Skrine's shortness could definitely be exploited. This might be enough reason for Claiborne to be covering Parker the whole game. I'm sitting Parker for Joe Mixon. It might be a foolish move by me. Edited September 23, 2017 by michaelredd9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 13 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said: I'm sorry my man, if that's your picture you're almost as ugly as Aaron Rodgers...feel bad for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dino88 Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 110 yds, 1 td Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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