Griffin_Morrow

Can we talk about Greg Zuerlein for a second?

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I have him on 2 of my teams. They don't call him "Greg the Leg" for nothing. 

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15 minutes ago, tazinib1 said:

I have him on 2 of my teams. They don't call him "Greg the Leg" for nothing. 

I always thought it was because he had a big Johnson.

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Gleg is on pace for 48 field goals.  David Akers holds the single-season record with 44 field goals.  Gleg is on pace for 190.7 points scored.  LaDainian Tomlinson holds the single-season record with 186 points scored.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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Him and Baltimore’s D are the main reasons I have first round byes in two of my leagues.

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Yeah, I picked him up and it was the greatest WW decision I made this season (aside from picking up Deshaun Watson as well). Hell, he's actually scoring more than my RBs and WRs sometimes. It's crazy! Usually the RBs and WRs score more than the Ks.

Edited by LuckyBub
added WW for waiver wire

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I have Greg and Baltimore's D as well, they've carried me in a ton of games I wouldn't have won otherwise. I was baffled so many sites continued to rank him in the bottom of the top 10 kickers every single week for most of the season. He's unstoppable.

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Incredible.  The guy is money.  Him and Jax D are the best part of 2 of my teams!

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I've long thought that fantasy owners who ignore kickers and defenses are foolish.  The difference between a good team and a bad team is usually 100 or 200 points in a season.  If you get an extra 30 points, it makes a difference.  It can get you an extra win in a season.  And if you end a season at 7-7 or 8-6, that extra 30 points can easily be the difference in a tiebreaker.  You don't need to invest a lot of resources.  It is more about paying attention.  And maybe using a 12th or 13th round draft pick.  Because kickers are a bit unpredictable, there aren't many that are worth a 12th round pick.  But next year, I won't hesitate to draft either Zuerlein or Gostkowski in the 12th round.  Gostkowski has consistently been a top 3 kicker over the last decade.  Zuerlein has a big leg on a team that will probably continue to be explosive.  After drafting a kicker and defense in the 12th and 13th round, the running back or wide receiver you draft in the 14th round won't be much different than the one you would have drafted in the 12th round.  It might even be the exact same player.

 

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So you have a way to prognosticate kickers or D/ST?  Isn't that why most (including myself) don't put much stock in drafting these positions high?  Zuerlein was on most waivers wires as are a bunch of other top 10 kickers and defenses were.  Rather spend on potentials/sleepers and waiver wire kicker/DST if needed.  That 12th round pick could of been Kamara, and then would you really feel bad about not drafting Gostkowski? 

 

Of course I'd rather play in leagues that don't have kickers to begin with cause again they are just a complete crapshoot year to year. 

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I agree, fantasy leagues should do away with kickers for sure, and maybe even defenses.  Even the NFL should maybe should do away with kickers.  I especially hate how the RedZone network spends so much time showing field goals.  

 

Prognosticating kickers is super difficult.  You look for a big leg especially in leagues where bonus points are given for long field goals.  You look for an offense that scores a lot.  If an offense does well between the 20's but falters in the red zone, that is a hugh plus.  But few teams that do well between the 20's falter in the red zone in the current NFL.  In the 1980's, it was pretty common.  I think next year two kickers are worth a 12th round pick:  Zuerlein and Gostkowski.  Gostkowski has been a top 3 kicker in most seasons of the last 10 years.  Zuerlein has been good enough this year to justify a 12th round pick.  If for no other reason, his team will trust him to kick from 50+ yards next year because of how he did this year.  

 

If you think a player in the 12th round will be the next Alvin Kamara, then draft him over any kicker.  Or take him in the 11th round.  Kamara was drafted in the 12th round in a lot of leagues and then dropped because of his slow start.  And then someone picked him up on waivers.  Every year, there will be a player or two drafted in round 12 or later that becomes studly.  It only has significance if you can predict who that player will be.  And then pick that player.  Or be Batman.  Always be Batman if you can.

 

Edited by michaelredd9

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Zuerlein has 167 in my league, next 5 are 136-129-122-121-121 (avg 125)  That's a big gap from #1 overall to the next group, but the #12 kicker still had 108, or about 15-20 below the average 2-5. Over 12 weeks that's barely 2 points.  So if you can find that kicker in tier1 by themselves (if they exist) great.

 

As for defense, our defensive scoring is very limited, so that scores normally range in 5-8, it takes TDs or lots of combined sacks/turnovers to get a much higher score (only 4pts for shutout). JAX was #1 with 134, 25 ahed of #2 (BAL), who were 10 ahead of #3 (LAR), then numbers drop by less than 10 per spot. #12 was CIN at 74 (60 behind #1). So the top D in the league scores 10/week, the #12 scores about half that at 5.7. Its a big difference, but again hard to predict.

 

For kickers I used to go with teams that had good offense, but would struggle in RZ. Or that played indoors, this year my selections were not great.

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The trick is to actually take the time around week 3-4 or so and pay attention to kickers.  Every year some of the best kickers are just ignored on the waiver wire.  Z was a free agent pick up for me this year.  I always seem to find a good kicker through the waiver wire.

 

Defense this year was very different.  Who knew the Jax was finally going to get their act together and play football.

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2 hours ago, NAUgrad said:

The trick is to actually take the time around week 3-4 or so and pay attention to kickers.  Every year some of the best kickers are just ignored on the waiver wire.  Z was a free agent pick up for me this year.  I always seem to find a good kicker through the waiver wire.

 

Defense this year was very different.  Who knew the Jax was finally going to get their act together and play football.

 

Z was a free agent for one week in our league, added just after waivers ran Wed AM of week 2. That owner lost Caleb Sturgis to injury in week one and was simply replacing his kicker, not scouring WW for the best K for the rest of the season. Another example that luck plays a huge role in FF.

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