Ramhock

Wild card lines discussion

Recommended Posts

Happy F'n New Year

 

I don't bet the games and when it comes to betting, homerism would never come into play.  I assume many of us guess at what lines would be.  I guessed the Rams would be -9, hosting Atlanta and would still like the Rams.  I see it has opened at 4.5.

 

Rams have the week rest, Atlanta coming off a very physical game that saw Julio getting whacked around, Gabriel go down, etc.  Without Shanahan, all Falcons were a disappointment fantasy wise, as their offense is not what it was last year.  The only factor in Atlanta's favor is playoff experience.

 

I think the Rams roll in this one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the general public, as well as odds makers, are going to assume that a team like the Rams (a team with only very recent success) is a pretender until they prove otherwise.  And, the regular season means nothing, in terms of proving something.  In other words, they need to win a playoff game to show that they are anything more than a pretty decent team that won a bad division, destined for an early exit in the playoffs.  Let's face it... Seattle was a mess this year, and really didn't put up much of a fight for the division.  Arizona's season was done before it started, and SF was in the conversation for the top pick in the draft until mid-November.  I'm not saying the Rams were handed the division (they did have to win a couple of key games down the stretch).  But, to me, they certainly have the feel of a team that is a year (or two) away from making any real noise in the post-season.

 

That said, it would not surprise me at all if the Rams roll against a Falcons team that has struggled on offense at times this season.  And, the NFC is somewhat of a crap-shoot this year, so anybody in the playoffs has a chance, I suppose.  Of course, that same theory holds true for Atlanta, who was just in the SB a year ago. The Falcons have been  playing well the past month and a half.  They're finding ways to win, and the playoff experience does count for something.  I certainly expected the line to be greater than a FG, but anything more than maybe 5-5.5 would have been a surprise, honestly.  Of the four games next weekend, I might have the most difficulty picking a winner in this one.  The Chiefs and Saints certainly have a bigger home-field advantage than LA or Jacksonville.  And, if I'm choosing between ATL and BUF in terms of who is more likely to win a road playoff game, it's really not even close. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gophers if the casual fans betting think the Rams are pretenders they are foolish. You make it sound like they made the playoffs at 8-8 sweeping their division and hardly beating anybody else. They lost 5 games, including a meaningless finale with SF. Their other losses include PHI, @MIN, SEA, and WAS, two of those teams are the best in the NFC, a third was nearly a playoff team. This team dimantled the Seahawks in Seattle, they beat the Saints and Jags, they are not pretenders.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

Gophers if the casual fans betting think the Rams are pretenders they are foolish. You make it sound like they made the playoffs at 8-8 sweeping their division and hardly beating anybody else. They lost 5 games, including a meaningless finale with SF. Their other losses include PHI, @MIN, SEA, and WAS, two of those teams are the best in the NFC, a third was nearly a playoff team. This team dimantled the Seahawks in Seattle, they beat the Saints and Jags, they are not pretenders.

 

 

When I say pretender, I'm simply talking about whether or not they're a legitimate threat to make/win the SB.   Not saying it's impossible, but it's unlikely.  Typically, up-and-coming teams like the Rams don't make the SB in their first playoff try.  The ones that do usually have an elite QB or a very good defense.  I don't think the Rams have either one of those things at this point.  I'm not saying that they won't at some point, and I'm not saying it's impossible for them to make a playoff run.  I'm saying that most people probably don't think the Rams are a front-runner to reach the SB, even with Philly and MIN playing backup QB's.  That doesn't mean that they're not a legitimately good team.  But, in the playoffs, experience counts for a lot.  They have none. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Then what NFC team has playoff experience and would be the favorite?  MIN and PHI don't have recent playoff experience or success, they get to play more at home and only need 2 wins. The Saints or Panthers?  Not the Rams apparently, so that leaves the Falcons, are they going to win 3 road games to reach the SB?

 

The NFC is pretty wide open without a perennial contender with lots of experience there. Of those in it, the top players/coaches with playoff experience would be CAR and NO.

 

BTW when I say the Rams are not pretenders I'm not saying they're a favorite to reach the SB, but I do think they'll beat the Falcons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, stevegrab said:

Then what NFC team has playoff experience and would be the favorite?  MIN and PHI don't have recent playoff experience or success, they get to play more at home and only need 2 wins. The Saints or Panthers?  Not the Rams apparently, so that leaves the Falcons, are they going to win 3 road games to reach the SB?

 

The NFC is pretty wide open without a perennial contender with lots of experience there. Of those in it, the top players/coaches with playoff experience would be CAR and NO.

 

BTW when I say the Rams are not pretenders I'm not saying they're a favorite to reach the SB, but I do think they'll beat the Falcons.

If I'm picking straight up winners, I'm probably picking the Rams to beat the Falcons as well. My original response was in regards to whether or not the line in that game was reasonable, and I think it is/was.  Should they win?  Sure.  Will they win?  Probably.  But, it wouldn't exactly be a shocker if they didn't. 

 

I agree that the NFC is pretty much wide open.  But, like I said before, that premise makes Atlanta a potential threat, just as much as it does anybody else.  Is Atlanta likely to win 3 road games?  Probably not.  On the other hand, is that really any more far-fetched than LA potentially winning three straight (including possibly two on the road)?  I don't think so.  Atlanta's playoff experience somewhat makes up for LA's home field advantage, in my opinion.  This will be Matt Ryan's 9th playoff game.  This will be Goff's first.  Not to mention, if I had to pick a place to win a road game, among the possible home venues in this year's playoffs, it would probably be LA.

 

There is no clear-cut "favorite" in the NFC.  But, if you're asking who has more playoff experience than the Rams, the answer would be everybody.  Brees, Ryan, and Newton have all played in Super Bowls.  Philly has reached the playoffs five times since the Rams last did, and while Minnesota hasn't been there a lot, they've still been there four times since the Rams last playoff appearance.  Not four games, but four different seasons.  More importantly, Minnesota destroyed the Rams six weeks ago.... 45 yards rushing, and ONE rushing first down, allowed in the game.  As a Vikings fan, if I'm picking a team that I'm most comfortable facing in two weeks, it's undoubtedly the Rams.  Certainly, the Rams could beat them.  But, I'd rather have to beat Goff than Brees or Newton, if for no other reason than playoff experience (or lack thereof). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will add this.... Maybe "pretender" was a poor choice of words.  I'm certainly not implying that the Rams aren't deserving of the 3-seed, or that their winning the division was a fluke.  Their improvement year-over-year is certainly impressive, and I would expect that they will continue to improve, and probably be a regular contender in the NFC for years to come.  I just think it's likely that they're a year away from really making some noise in the playoffs.  Maybe even two years. 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes pretender was a poor choice of wods, I'm not a Rams fan but that still sounded like an insult.

 

The Eagles may have playoff experience, but that's 2 games played 4 and 7 years ago, how many of those guys are on the team, or the coaching staff? There could be as many players on the Rams with playoff experience on other teams. Or coaches like Wade Phillips. Mosty key Eagles offenseive players have little to no playoff experience, other than Blount and Torrey Smith with 8, Foles(1), Ertz(0), other RB zero, other WR zero Their OL have some vets, so they probably have more experience, not sure about their defense.

 

You're right about the QBs, Ryan, Brees, Newton all have a lot of playoff experience, so do the coaches on those teams (more than Rams HC for sure).

 

I'm really looking forward to NFC playoff games, and in the AFC for at least one of NE-PIT to be knocked out before conf champ game, just so tired of those two and dislike both teams and their fans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

-9 is a huge spread to expect on the Rams game.  KC and Jacksonville are trending up in that territory, but their opponents seem especially weak for playoff teams; even in this day and age of the NFL.  If I had to pick one upset this weekend it would be Atlanta over the Rams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s now up to 6.5, which is still the smallest of the weekend (or at least tied for the smallest).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Falcons have at least a 40% chance of winning.  But I also think the spread is justified in going up to 6.5 because if the Rams win they will could win big.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Rams treated their game in Seattle like a playoff game - if they had lost that game, they would have lost the division lead and been in a much worse spot. So I’d call their utter road dominance of Seattle a sign that they are a legitimate contender for the SB. Minnesota is probably the favorite in the NFC with a great defense, home field in the divisional round, and Nick Foles looking like poo. I am going to assume the Rams beat Atlanta, which puts them on the road at Minnesota next weekend. They suffered their worst loss of the year in Minnesota. I think the winner of that game ends up hosting the Saints in the NFC Championship game, as Philly just isn’t going anywhere with Foles (and New Orleans has already shown that they have Carolina’s number).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actally, Greg the Leg is probably worth 3.:angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the betting side of it, I tend to like all the favorites this weekend, but I dont like laying more than a TD (its currently at 9 in both Jags/Bill, and Chiefs/Titans game.  I did a 4 team/6 point teaser earlier in the week when the lines were a little better.  

 

Jags -2

Chiefs -2

Saints PK

Rams PK

 

Pays +260 which i think seems like a pretty good bet, just hope there isn't one team that screws me over!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's almost always 1 road team that wins during the wildcard playoff weekend...got to be one of the NFC teams. :thinking:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I can't really picture the Bills or Titans winning, so i agree it would have to be one of the NFC teams.  Most likely IMO would be the Panthers over the Saints.  Saints have struggled a little lately, and will be facing the Panthers for the 3rd time this year.  Still like all the home teams though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the Rams lost and the Chiefs (Andy Reid) choked again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.