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What's up with OJ Howard? Ankle still hurting? Looks like his FF ceiling is now limited? 

 

Buccaneers | Cameron Brate receives extension
Mon, 12 Mar 2018 11:39:52 -0700

Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate agreed to a six-year contract extension with the Buccaneers Monday, March 12, worth $41 million, according to a source. The deal includes $18 million in guaranteed money.

Brate has been a solid pass catcher for the Buccaneers over the last two seasons with 1,251 yards and 14 touchdowns over that span. He will continue to have a role in the passing game and can be a low-end No. 1 fantasy tight end

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Brate is also a good blocker. It is certainly being paid #1 TE money. It does seem a little unusual but he has been everything and anything they need him to be. Howard is still in play and should be much better this year. 

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6 minutes ago, DMD said:

Brate is also a good blocker. 

Yes, but... 

last two seasons with 1,251 yards and 14 touchdowns over that span

do you think his receiving use goes down? Because it's a six year deal and could serious seriously cap oj's value

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Posted (edited)

As a brate owner in multiple leagues, I hope they try to trade Howard 

Edited by millworkguy

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14 minutes ago, millworkguy said:

As a brate owner in multiple leagues, I hope they try to trade Howard 

i think they're going to try to run 12 personnel

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I dunno, when both were healthy and Winston was on the field, he almost exclusively looks Brate's way.

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1 hour ago, kdko said:

I dunno, when both were healthy and Winston was on the field, he almost exclusively looks Brate's way.

right, so you do see concern for OJ Howard's dynasty value?

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First year TE's rarely do anything. Evan Engram was an extreme exception and only because every WR was injured or on IR. I haven't sat down and done all the analysis and projections but rule-o-thumb is that good receiving TE's show up in Year 2.

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28 minutes ago, DMD said:

First year TE's rarely do anything. Evan Engram was an extreme exception and only because every WR was injured or on IR. I haven't sat down and done all the analysis and projections but rule-o-thumb is that good receiving TE's show up in Year 2.

yes, but that's not the problem.

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9 hours ago, DMD said:

First year TE's rarely do anything. Evan Engram was an extreme exception and only because every WR was injured or on IR. I haven't sat down and done all the analysis and projections but rule-o-thumb is that good receiving TE's show up in Year 2.

 

I disagree here, Engram was going to be a integral piece of their offense and receiving corps from the minute he was drafted.  He wasn't drafted to be your prototypical TE, he was drafted to be a receiving WR after running a 4.4 at the combine.

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I'm not arguing that Engram wasn't an intriguing rookie and he is a receiving TE to be sure since he is really too small to be a great  blocker. Here are recent elite TEs and what they did as rookies.

 

Evan Engram - 64-722-6

Travis Kelce 67-862-5
Rob Gronkowski 42-546-10

Zach Ertz 36-469-4
Delanie Walker 2-30-0
Jimmy Graham 31-356-5
Jason Witten 35-347-1
Jordan Reed 45-499-3
Greg Olsen 39-391-2

Zach Ertz 36-469-4

Tyler Eifert 39-445-2

 

 

Engram had one of the best rookie years for a TE in history. He was greatly aided by the fact that Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall both barely played before being lost for the season. Sterling Shepard missed five games. No way that Engram gets 115 targets as a rookie if Beckham, Marshall and Shepard remained healthy. Engram was the #2 TE drafted and he was taken in as a receiving TE. He got a major bump from the injuries but no argument - he came in to contribute as a receiver. 

 

Howard ended with 26-432-6 which was in line with other top receivers when they were rookies. Best yet - he had a 16.6 YPC which ranked top in the NFL for TEs with more than 20 catches. Brate was healthy at 12.3 but ranked #23 in that metric. Howard was lost for the season in Week 15 with a sprained ankle after scoring a TD in his final two games.

 

Howard is a receiving TE and he was #20 in PPR last year. Brate was #10. My expectation is that Brate at best holds on to his production and more likely decreases at least some. And Howard should do more. The Bucs have the same offense and coaches so both TEs will be used. Brate's signing does cement him as an integral cog but that doesn't mean Howard's development has changed or been slowed.

 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, DMD said:

My expectation is that Brate at best holds on to his production and more likely decreases at least some. And Howard should do more. The Bucs have the same offense and coaches so both TEs will be used. Brate's signing does cement him as an integral cog but that doesn't mean Howard's development has changed or been slowed.

 

it's not about development, it's about FF value.

Does anyone think that this does NOT ruin OJ Howard's value?

Put it this way, the BEST TE in the NFL last year, for FF, was Kelce with 83/1038/8

Let's say, best case, Brate's production goes down 20%, so instead of 48/591/6, he goes to 40/470/5. Taking his numbers away from Kelce's, that leaves 43/430/3 of production available for OJ. Let's say that teams that consistently run 12 personnel has a higher total for the position. Let's give OJ 20% more, just for poops and giggles... OJ's ceiling is then 50/500/4 because he's sharing.

That puts OJ's ceiling around #14 TE in the NFL... as opposed to his ceiling in a year or two being #1.

 

am I wrong on this?

Doesn't Brate signing a very significant contract destroy both his and OJ's FF values?

The only one it benefits is the QB

Edited by LordOpie

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The thing about fantasy tight ends is that unless a guy is maybe Top 5, then he just doesn't offer any advantage. Brate had fairly consistent production for stretches last year. I would certainly be concerned that any advancement by Howard would pull Brate down.

 

it is also concerning that Brate was so good through the first seven games of 2017 - 31-405-4 but then was only 17-186-2 over the last nine games (and both TDs in same game).

 

Over Howards final nine games he had 21-325-5 so he was already better than Brate in the final nine weeks when he was more up to speed.

 

I would likely most expect that the two will cancel each other out and end up with neither producing anything more than very low end starting numbers for a fantasy TE.

 

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1 hour ago, DMD said:

I would likely most expect that the two will cancel each other out and end up with neither producing anything more than very low end starting numbers for a fantasy TE.

 

so... what i said?

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38 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

so... what i said?

 

Doesn't it always come down to that?

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16 minutes ago, DMD said:

 

Doesn't it always come down to that?

no according to my wife

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12 hours ago, DMD said:

I'm not arguing that Engram wasn't an intriguing rookie and he is a receiving TE to be sure since he is really too small to be a great  blocker. Here are recent elite TEs and what they did as rookies.

 

Evan Engram - 64-722-6

Travis Kelce 67-862-5
Rob Gronkowski 42-546-10

Zach Ertz 36-469-4
Delanie Walker 2-30-0
Jimmy Graham 31-356-5
Jason Witten 35-347-1
Jordan Reed 45-499-3
Greg Olsen 39-391-2

Zach Ertz 36-469-4

Tyler Eifert 39-445-2

 

 

Engram had one of the best rookie years for a TE in history. He was greatly aided by the fact that Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall both barely played before being lost for the season. Sterling Shepard missed five games. No way that Engram gets 115 targets as a rookie if Beckham, Marshall and Shepard remained healthy. Engram was the #2 TE drafted and he was taken in as a receiving TE. He got a major bump from the injuries but no argument - he came in to contribute as a receiver. 

 

Howard ended with 26-432-6 which was in line with other top receivers when they were rookies. Best yet - he had a 16.6 YPC which ranked top in the NFL for TEs with more than 20 catches. Brate was healthy at 12.3 but ranked #23 in that metric. Howard was lost for the season in Week 15 with a sprained ankle after scoring a TD in his final two games.

 

Howard is a receiving TE and he was #20 in PPR last year. Brate was #10. My expectation is that Brate at best holds on to his production and more likely decreases at least some. And Howard should do more. The Bucs have the same offense and coaches so both TEs will be used. Brate's signing does cement him as an integral cog but that doesn't mean Howard's development has changed or been slowed.

 

 

 

Those are good numbers, i'd like this post if i could.  It obviously helped that WR1-3 on NYG went down, there's no denying that.  I guess we'll never know truly know how many targets he would have gotten, obviously 115 is steep for a rookie.  It's especially hard because I don't think there's another TE on that list that you can compare his skillsets to.  I grabbed him late in my 12 man (thank god) based off lots of buzz I heard surrounding him from people as soon as NY drafted him.  There was definitely a camp that believed he was going to have a top 10 year, but obviously not because of his roided up target share.  It'll be interesting when there are so many threats on the field and they can get Engram open on a seam route or on the sideline with his size and speed.  

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The Browns drafted David Njoku at TE last year expecting him to be a major contirbutor. Even on a team without a lot of receiving talent (Gordon, Coleman, Britt, whatever TE) only RB Duke Johnson shined as a receiving option. Duke led all players with 93 targets, WR Ricardo Luis (even Browns fans say who) was second with 61, Njoku 3rd with 60. Second year TE Devalve right behind that with 58 (tied with WR Coleman).

 

Of course the 3 WR I mentioned only played a combined 23 games so it was hard to taget them much. But that might lend a bit of comparison for targets for a rookie TE when there was a lack of quality WR.

 

PS  Wow, just noticed Duke Johnson's catch% was almost 80% lat year, maybe that's more common than I realize for RBs with many dump off passes.  Probably true, Crowell was over 65%.

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