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Seferian-Jenkins signs with the Jaguars

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he will be what they hoped Julius Thomas would be

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That's a deft signing IMO. He's just hitting his stride with major upside.

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I think he'll be a great target for people who aren't looking to draft a TE in the first 10 rounds.  Huge upside.

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We will see.  Fantasy wise he was in a good situation last year with the Jets as there wasn't a lot of competition for targets.  Other than becoming a key target by default in 2017, he's underperformed.

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Posted (edited)

I'll take the under on that prediction. 50/357/3 is his best season so far.

 

"The (ASJ's) 50 catches were 13th best in the NFL at the tight end position. That looks good on paper, but any scrutiny beyond that tells a less impressive story. Despite finishing 13th in total receptions, ASJ was only 26th at tight end in yardage. His 7.1 yard average per reception put him 70th out of 71 tight ends who played at least 25% of his team’s snaps (Source: Pro Football Focus).........

 

 

Sharp Football Stats put together the numbers and found that when the Jets targeted ASJ, it resulted in a successful play only 43% of the time. That rates 33rd out of 37 tight ends targeted at least 30 times in the passing game. 

 

So while his reception total was high, there were a lot of empty calories there. It seems like his reception total was inflated a bit by dumpoffs that didn’t help the offense much. In the end, targeting ASJ in the passing game turned into a losing proposition for the Jets.(Source: Sharp Football Stats)."

 

ASJ's best fantasy season was primarily due to quantity of targets, production quality was pretty horrendous.  And now he has to battle Hurns and Lee for targets instead of Robbie Anderson and Jermaine Kearse.

Edited by Bobby Brown
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He was a second-round pick but he's never met expectations

 

2014 TB 21-221-2
2015 TB 21-388-4

2016 NYJ 3-44-1

2017 NYJ 50-357-3  (7.1 YPC)

 

He already had a 2 game suspension in 2016 and was cut by TB who gave up on him after just 2 years. He was kicked out of practices there.  He went to NYJ where TEs die so that is hard to hold against him. He had a DUI in 2016  which is when TB released him since he was on police video "not behaving". Hopefully, he can get out of his own way and realize his potential. He has the tools and maybe cleaned up his act now.  He said he stopped drinking. I hope he does turn it around and do something.

 

He joins the Jags that totaled 43-505-6 using their TEs in the same coach/system in 2017. Be nice to see him step up and with Allen Robinson gone, maybe he gets a bit more action.

 

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Hurns and Lee aren't exactly Rice and Taylor.  How does he not get a lot of looks? 

 

Yeah this is predicated on his having beat the alcy thing.  If so, I like his upside.

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41 minutes ago, BeeR said:

Hurns and Lee aren't exactly Rice and Taylor.  How does he not get a lot of looks? 

 

Yeah this is predicated on his having beat the alcy thing.  If so, I like his upside.

in addition to that...

Bortles: 315 completions for  3687 yards

McCown: 268 completions for  2926 yards

his new QB is 20% better and is a few years removed from 4400 yards, so potentially 50% better.

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23 hours ago, BeeR said:

That's a deft signing IMO. He's just hitting his stride with major upside.

 

Do I have to agree with you again?  Yeah.. I do.  Solid work by the Jags.

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Mercedes Lewis went 24-318-5 last year fwiw.  You know, that guy you thought retired until he pops up out of nowhere with a 3 td game.  I can't see how ASJ doesn't at least double those numbers.  The fact the Jags keep bringing in marquee TE's tells me they've been dying to get one for Bortles.  Julius Thomas was infamous for his lack of work ethic, and Mychal Rivera was Mychal Rivera.  ASJ I still think can turn the corner.  Mercedes Lewis still being the only other TE you'd recognize on their roster tells you all you need to know about his opportunities.  He'll cost you nothing this year, and likely you won't have to draft him.  I think finishing 12th is his floor.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, BeeR said:

Hurns and Lee aren't exactly Rice and Taylor. 

 

I wasn't making that comparison.  I was pointing out that they have a better resume than Kearse and Anderson. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, kdko said:

Mercedes Lewis went 24-318-5 last year fwiw.  You know, that guy you thought retired until he pops up out of nowhere with a 3 td game.  I can't see how ASJ doesn't at least double those numbers

That is a whole 49 less yards but 2 more TDs than ASJ had last year.  And more fantasy value in non PPR for M Lewis than ASJ.  The hype for ASJ is pretty crazy when you consider he only got 50 more yards than a 40 year old M Lewis.

 

So you think it's a bare minimum gimmie that ASJ goes 50-600? Blowing away his career highs as a 6 year veteran?  Under Blake Bortles?  A QB that has never passed to a TE for more than 500 yards in a season?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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7 hours ago, kdko said:

Mercedes Lewis went 24-318-5 last year fwiw. 

If Bortles has another 4400 yard season, ASJ could triple those numbers.

and that's pretty good for a guy you can get in the 12th round.

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5 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

 

I wasn't making that comparison.  I was pointing out that they have a better resume than Kearse and Anderson.

 

I know.  And not saying they're horrible.  Just that they aren't good enough to really minimize Jenkins' looks much.  I'm not saying this is the new Gronk.  Just a great value deal with upside.

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3 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

That is a whole 49 less yards but 2 more TDs than ASJ had last year.  And more fantasy value in non PPR for M Lewis than ASJ.  The hype for ASJ is pretty crazy when you consider he only got 50 more yards than a 40 year old M Lewis.

 

So you think it's a bare minimum gimmie that ASJ goes 50-600? Blowing away his career highs as a 6 year veteran?  Under Blake Bortles?  A QB that has never passed to a TE for more than 500 yards in a season?

 

 

 

 

I absolutely do.  He's going to go undrafted most likely so the risk wont cost you anything.  Talking upside here.

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2 hours ago, kdko said:

 

I absolutely do.  He's going to go undrafted most likely so the risk wont cost you anything.  Talking upside here.

ASJ was drafted in every single league I was in last year; well, besides the one work league where no one knew what they were doing.  He certainly won't go undrafted this year.  

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5 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

ASJ was drafted in every single league I was in last year; well, besides the one work league where no one knew what they were doing.  He certainly won't go undrafted this year.  

So no one in your work league knew what they were doing

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25 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Correct.  The league name is Draft like Dopie.

I would destroy you. 

How about you join one of our dynasty leagues? 

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How about you join me in the FFPC main event this year.  Let me know who your team is.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

How about you join me in the FFPC main event this year.  Let me know who your team is.

 

 

i was just trying to fill an opening in one of my dyansty leagues :D

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16 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

1 dynasty league is enough.

the fun thing about three dynasty leagues where most of the owners are the same is that you can get info from them for trading purposes. For example, I'll offer ASJ to an owner in one league who has him in another. I'll ask for a 1st round pick. If they reject it cautiously, then I know I can get ASJ for a first from him in the other league. If they reject with objections about how I'm trying to fleece him, then I'll offer him a 2nd round pick in the other league.

you get the idea. It's fun.

Sometimes they'll seriously object to paying a 1st and then get mad at me for only offering a 1st in the other league. Then I'll ask them wtf is up with that and they feel stupid :lol:

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