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2 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

Jets need a lot more than a QB. 

that's the nice thing about a peyton manning. If the QB they take is an elite franchise QB, free agents will flock to NYJ.

there's no way DEN signs all those FAs (ware, talib, ward...) without first landing peyton. Even if Peyton was on the decline, there's no way DEN has that superbowl without him.

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Three 2nd round picks was cheap.  Moving up into a top pick when a potential franchise quarterback is available never comes without a high cost.  I'm surprised the deal didn't include the Jets' 2019 1st round pick.  The Robert Griffin deal included that year's 1st round pick (also the 6th pick), that year's 2nd round pick, and the next two year's 1st round picks.  The Carson Wentz deal included that year's 1st round pick (8th pick), that year's 3rd and 4th round picks, the next year's 1st round pick, and a second round pick 2 years later.  The Eagles also got a conditional 4th-5th round pick back along with the 2nd pick of the draft.

 

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7 hours ago, jamesplante11 said:

This may also hurt the value of 1.04 for Cleveland 

 

Not if the Giants take you know who

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19 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

Three 2nd round picks was cheap.  Moving up into a top pick when a potential franchise quarterback is available never comes without a high cost.  I'm surprised the deal didn't include the Jets' 2019 1st round pick.  The Robert Griffin deal included that year's 1st round pick (also the 6th pick), that year's 2nd round pick, and the next two year's 1st round picks.  The Carson Wentz deal included that year's 1st round pick (8th pick), that year's 3rd and 4th round picks, the next year's 1st round pick, and a second round pick 2 years later.  The Eagles also got a conditional 4th-5th round pick back along with the 2nd pick of the draft.

 

this.

 

it's funny how people rip teams for not doing what is necessary and then rip them for "over-paying" when it wasn't anyways.

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12 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

Three 2nd round picks was cheap.  Moving up into a top pick when a potential franchise quarterback is available never comes without a high cost.  I'm surprised the deal didn't include the Jets' 2019 1st round pick.  The Robert Griffin deal included that year's 1st round pick (also the 6th pick), that year's 2nd round pick, and the next two year's 1st round picks.  The Carson Wentz deal included that year's 1st round pick (8th pick), that year's 3rd and 4th round picks, the next year's 1st round pick, and a second round pick 2 years later.  The Eagles also got a conditional 4th-5th round pick back along with the 2nd pick of the draft.

 

its not cheap....its a good deal for the colts

 

pick 3 is worth 2200 on the trade value chart.....pick 6 is worth 1600...37 is worth 510 and 49 is worth 410...for the sake of argument im going to assume the jets 2nd rounder next year is in the top 10 of the round making that worth at least 500 points

 

other teams may have been more desperate and paid more in years prior...but its a good deal for the colts and a no brainer for a team that needs to add alot of talent to its roster

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under the 2018 trade value chart the colts came out ahead +810 if we go with the assumption that next years jets 2nd rounder is a top 10 in the round

 

now lets use the updated chart(even though the wentz trade took place 2 years ago) to see how that deal went....pick 2 overall is worth 2600....pick 8 is worth 1400......thats a 1200 point difference....the 12th pick cleveland got in the 2017 first round is valued at 1200 today...making up the difference and basically putting us at 0 now.....a top 10 pick in the 3rd round is about 240 points and a top 10 pick in the 4th is worth about 80-82 points.......that pick cleveland is getting from philly in this years 2nd is the last pick in the round valued at 270....putting clevelands value at around +592 or so...give or take a few.......

 

now if somehow the jets turn it around quick and that next years 2nd round pick lowers the value we figured in they will still come out ahead better than cleveland did in the wentz trade

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Posted (edited)

When the Carson Wentz trade went down, it wasn't known that the 1st round pick would be the 12th pick and that the 2nd round pick would be the 64th pick.  Philly had a new coach and looked like they might be rebuilding.  The 1st round pick could have easily turned out to be a top-5 pick.  And no one would have predicted that this year's 2nd round pick would be at the end of the round.  Just like no one would have known that the Redskins would be giving up the 2nd overall pick two years later in the Robert Griffin trade.  How did the Redskins trade turn out according to the Trade Value Chart?

 

It was smart for the Colts to trade down since they didn't need a quarterback.  They had to take the best deal offered.  I'm just surprised that no one offered more.  If I were the Jets and thought Josh Rosen was going to be a franchise quarterback, I'd make that trade without a second thought.  Both teams could end up benefiting from the trade.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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11 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

When the Carson Wentz trade went down, it wasn't known that the 1st round pick would be the 12th pick and that the 2nd round pick would be the 64th pick.  Philly had a new coach and looked like they might be rebuilding.  The 1st round pick could have easily turned out to be a top-5 pick.  And no one would have predicted that this year's 2nd round pick would be at the end of the round.  Just like no one would have known that the Redskins would be giving up the 2nd overall pick two years later in the Robert Griffin trade.  How did the Redskins trade turn out according to the Trade Value Chart?

 

It was smart for the Colts to trade down since they didn't need a quarterback.  They had to take the best deal offered.  I'm just surprised that no one offered more.  If I were the Jets and thought Josh Rosen was going to be a franchise quarterback, I'd make that trade without a second thought.  Both teams could end up benefiting from the trade.

 

havent analyzed the griffin deal....would need the particulars

 

and of course you dont know ahead of time what the picks are going to turn out as...im just telling you what they did turn out as....it didnt turn out to be anything GREAT for cleveland.....especially anything compared to what indy does know they are going to get.....

 

i think there are a bunch of guys at qb and no one is really seperating themselves....thus no one is really willing to go crazy....but i dunno.....i do think rosen is the most ready and has the best floor.....

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Posted (edited)
On 3/17/2018 at 4:07 PM, Shorttynaz said:

 love this as a Colts fan.   It's a good trade for both sides.  Jets get a shot at their qb of the future and the Colts will still get a top 10 stud (unless they keep dealing) along with two additional quality 2nd round picks to further enhance their rebuilding process. 

Mostly agree, even though I hate losing the pipe dream of Barkley or even Chubb or Fitz realistically and question giving up the 1.03 without even getting a first rounder, that's almost unheard of, but three 2d rounders is still good value.  Nelson would be a great consolation prize.  But if they don't nab a RB with one of those 2d rounders I'm gonna be PO'd.  Michel or the USC guy maybe.  I think Guice will be gone. 

 

At least Ballard didn't complicate things by signing any quality FAs.  Maybe that's because he mostly sucks at it so far.  :rolleyes:  Shades of Polian.

Edited by BeeR
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On 3/17/2018 at 12:53 PM, tazinib1 said:

 

The Colts move down to 1.6 from 1.3 and get 3 2nd round picks. Ya don't think that is a tad too expensive???? It's not the move. It's the price they paid to move. 

 

This is a move for franchise qb. Just look at what Philly, Rams, Chiefs, even the Bears gave up for their respective move ups for QBs. Draft value chart goes right out the window when QB starved teams are competing to move up in round 1. Usually the move up cost for rd 1 QB is over 150% of traditional draft value chart. Jets did fine. Expensive? Absolutely. Overpriced? When the Bills, Cardinals and others are looking to move up to top or 4 as well, the Jets did just fine.

On 3/17/2018 at 3:37 PM, Gourdeau said:

 

I get your point but we arent talking about any of these QBs as being on that level..  they arent emotely close to being a sure thing... they spent as if they were getting the top pick and there is a once in a lifetime type of talent IE Manning or Luck 

 

Sure thing? LOL!!  Neither was Wentz, Goff , Trubisky, or Mahomes. And look at the draft capital that was used to move up for them. 

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17 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

just a great deal for indy....you could take one of those 2nd rounders out of it and its still a great deal.....nice work by ballard

 

Yes. Considering their guy was probably Chubb all along and they are still going to get him but now have 3 extra 2nd Rd picks in the next 2 years. 

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15 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

under the 2018 trade value chart the colts came out ahead +810 if we go with the assumption that next years jets 2nd rounder is a top 10 in the round

 

now lets use the updated chart(even though the wentz trade took place 2 years ago) to see how that deal went....pick 2 overall is worth 2600....pick 8 is worth 1400......thats a 1200 point difference....the 12th pick cleveland got in the 2017 first round is valued at 1200 today...making up the difference and basically putting us at 0 now.....a top 10 pick in the 3rd round is about 240 points and a top 10 pick in the 4th is worth about 80-82 points.......that pick cleveland is getting from philly in this years 2nd is the last pick in the round valued at 270....putting clevelands value at around +592 or so...give or take a few.......

 

now if somehow the jets turn it around quick and that next years 2nd round pick lowers the value we figured in they will still come out ahead better than cleveland did in the wentz trade

 

It is standard practice to discount future year picks to the next lower round. So the Jets 2019 2nd rounder is valued as the equivalent of this year's 3rd Rd pick.

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7 hours ago, Dcat said:

 

It is standard practice to discount future year picks to the next lower round. So the Jets 2019 2nd rounder is valued as the equivalent of this year's 3rd Rd pick.

seems fair

 

for mike redd btw...you see the PFT article about the fins trading from 12 to 3 in 2013 for dion Jordan? all they gave up was the 42nd pick

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I don't think the Giants take a QB at #2.  I think the new coach wants to establish his support of Manning and will take either Barkley or Nelson.

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1 hour ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

for mike redd btw...you see the PFT article about the fins trading from 12 to 3 in 2013 for dion Jordan? all they gave up was the 42nd pick

 

 

That was a very weak draft.  It was lacking elite players and no franchise quarterbacks were available.  Which players are available is integral to the value of the pick.

 

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32 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

That was a very weak draft.  It was lacking elite players and no franchise quarterbacks were available.  Which players are available is integral to the value of the pick.

 

"strong draft/weak draft" is just perception until you've had 5 years to look back and evaluate......which we can now do with that class....but the dolphins thought Jordan was going to be elite or else they wouldn't have made the move

 

drafting and evaluating is an inexact science...or else guys like bell and Kelce wouldn't have gone in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of that draft

 

we could argue about this all day.....but IMO the jets gave up too much and the colts got a score for a team that needs a bunch of talent infused into it

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if scouts/front offices were always right than the guys in kc and jax would have had lane Johnson instead of joeckel and fischer......or the rams would have had deandre instead of tavon austin

 

bottom line is that these guys don't always know what  theyre doing/do the smart thing

 

what the jets certainly accomplished is driving up the price for any team that wants that #2.....the perception that this draft it strong and has 3-4 franchise qbs could easily be dismissed 4-5 years from now

 

the jets are starved and desperate...that's what this looks like to me.....watching sanchez fizzle out and wasted picks on petty, geno and hackenberg have driven them to this

 

it very well might turn out to be a great deal for them in time also.....if they miss on this one though it will hurt

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If im the colts im calling the Bills to name price for pick 6.. their 2 1st rounders and minimum 

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52 minutes ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

bottom line is that these guys don't always know what  theyre doing/do the smart thing

that's true, but they're way smarter than we are or we'd be the ones making millions.

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7 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

that's true, but they're way smarter than we are or we'd be the ones making millions.

they aren't necessarily much smarter than us

 

but you have to want that life...first you must be willing to work for free for awhile...then peanuts......and work ridiculous hours.....that's how a lot of those guys got there

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4 hours ago, Gourdeau said:

If im the colts im calling the Bills to name price for pick 6.. their 2 1st rounders and minimum 

Not sure they'd be so quick to trade down again per an article I read this weekend where Chris Ballard said this trade was possible as they can move down a few spots and still get "their guy" along with picking up 2 quality second round picks this year and another next year.  He did say he's not opposed to moving down further, but it will require some "premium" picks.  

 

It all depends on who "their guy" is.  If it's Chubb or Nelson, makes perfect sense.  If somehow both those guys are off the board at #6 (possible), then maybe they make a move with the Bills for Buffalo's two firsts round picks this year and possibly some high picks in the future.  I don't see this trade happening (until potentially draft day) though. 

 

The Cardinals are still rumored (local insiders and local radio) to be trying to work a trade with Indy to move up to #6, but AZs dangling carrot isn't anywhere near the size Buffalo's is. 

 

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On Saturday, March 17, 2018 at 2:06 PM, Caveman_Nick said:

The jets gave up a chance at 3 front line contributors to move up 3 spots in a draft where the talent upgrade from 6-3 is minimal.  Draft as many good players as you can.  Giving up that much for that move is ridiculous!

 

Easy to say when your team lucks into a HOF QB in the 6th round.

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18 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

 

Easy to say when your team lucks into a HOF QB in the 6th round.

I think of it in terms of overall value to the team, and As a Pats fan I approve of this move by the Jets.  Tom Brady being a 6th round pick does not jade me...i’ve been a fan since the early 80s.  I lived through the Rod Rust years.  I know what it’s like to be a fan of a bad team. I think this is a move that will ultimately hurt them.

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