Dynasty, want 1st pick

[millworkguy]

Let me ask @FastSteve this, if you packaged both your 1.06 and 1.10 what pick would you expect to get back?  

[FastSteve]

On 5/2/2018 at 4:01 PM, millworkguy said:

Let me ask @FastSteve this, if you packaged both your 1.06 and 1.10 what pick would you expect to get back?  

Well obviously 1.1 pick. And seeing as we all have to have 5 picks his 2nd round which unfortunately being snake style is 2.12. And he only has 2 players I'm remotely interested in. Aaron Rodgers & JJ Watt. And honestly I'm not interested in either. I don't need to chase a QB & he is highly unlikely to give him up & Watt is looking like he is an injury risk at this point. He literally has no other players I'm interested in. 

[millworkguy]

So if the 1.06 and 1.10 = 1.01 and personally (as picks 6 is likely the last of the tier 2 and 10 being a 3rd tier rookie) i see that as light, and funchess and lee are worth the 1.01. You see Funchess is worth the 1.06, and lee the 1.10?  

 

Funchess just saw his value take a hit with Moore being picked, and I have him somewhere in the wr20-30 grouping, lee is wr 55 -65 for me.  I wouldn't be being buying either guy from you at those prices

[Big Country]

I don;t see many dynasty leagues where the 6 and 10 would net you the 1.

 

If your league really has a rule that every team has to have 5 picks, then you are going to be extremely limited in what you can do.

 

I think at this point have to come to the conclusion that you are severely undervaluing the #1 pick and a move for it is not likely to happen.

[FastSteve]

At this point I get that you guys aren't going to agree with my offer ideas. This is more about conversion at this point & diving into thought process & valuations of players. I have to say at this point I am surprised, especially on a Huddle site, how much people are buying into the NAME hype. Anyone who has read Mr Dorey's book, The Next Level. Name hype is always the LAST consideration.

 

I guess a Heisman trophy winner has never gone bust? Or a rookie that looked like 1 of the next big things at his position? RG3 fits BOTH of those items. We can talk up all we want about how good Barkley is. How he is a generational player. He is but player in a TEAM sport. Even the best players can be limited by their TEAM. How much better do you think AP's #'s could have been had all those years in MIN he had either a QB or the QB had WR's worth a damn? If he hadn't been constantly facing stacked boxes? Eli is at the end of his career & lets honest. He is obviously declining at this point. What happens if the NYG next QB isn't worth a damn? Or how about OBJ? Whom seems to be wearing thin on NYG brass. We have seen high end players be shipped out before because they cannot fit in with the team. The possibility is real that NYG pass game could take a serious step back in the next 2/3 years. And that is ZERO to do with the player being talked about. Something said player can do nothing about. 

 

I play in a 12 team  division IDP league. Which means each round of the draft pulls 12 players off the board. The draft isn't just rookies but also any free agents can be drafted. With 3 starters among 3 IDP's that is not 1 starter among DEF but 9. Meaning there are more positions to fill. The flex is RB/WR/TE. With all that in mind I find it nuts to imply that two 1st picks are not sufficient for the 1st pick. They could possible pick of a 1st tier player & a 2nd tier player with those picks. And even if it is two 2nd tier players, the weekly output of 2 players who fall just outside that top end is going to be more than ANY ONE single stud can provide.

 

Also another fact that stands, considering his team, regardless of which 2 WR's are included in the deal I would be sending him 4 players that are automatic starters on his team. Lee is the unquestioned WR1 in JAC now with Robinson & Hurns gone. And if I send Funchess, I really don't see him taking dive just because CAR drafted a WR. His RB & DL are CRAP to be blunt & his WR are not much better. Even if the combined avg of all 4 guys I send him is only 8 pts per game that is 32 points a game. NO RB, EVEN A STUD WILL MATCH THAT - PERIOD. And I will send him a mid round pick (my R3) also along with Kizer if he wants the insurance on Rodgers. I find it insane to hear that all of that is not worth 1 single pick.

 

And now lets look at this from my point view. I am going to guess what everyone is going to say is worth his 1.1 is probable nothing less than my 6th overall pick as I am sure I will hear the 10th get laughed at & either Gurley, Hopkins or McCaffery. A deal like that does LITTLE MORE THAN ZERO to OVERALL IMPROVE my team. All it amounts to is a swap out of a proven player for a rookie. The only gain I make from it is maybe a few years from the player, provided some career ruining/ending injury does happen to him & a likely negligible overall points improvement for the season. I am offering a significant amount of depth from team in the proposed offer. A deal that could easily leave me chasing holes if a couple of things bounce the wrong way & giving him plug in starters that combined will give him more points that ANY single stud could sans a QB - QB score heavy league. I am not going to make a deal where I do not more than swap out players & give up a R1 pick to swap out. Honestly, what sense does that make for me?

 

Again I am not going off here. Just making conversion & hoping people can at least understand what I am saying & my thought process here. I don't believe my line of thought is illogical or ridiculous. 

 

 

[millworkguy]

Didn't bother to read all of that, and you keep going to rg3, football picks do go bust all the time, but let's remember fantasy football top picks and NFL picks differ.   rg3 wasn't a fantasy football 1.01 pick, luck was the highest rated qb that year and still wasn't the 1.01 in any of my qb1 leagues.  Your not asking about guice or penny, you want Barkley, and why do you want him?  You can lecture us all you want about name hype and how silly it is that we want him and would pay that much for him, but end of day you want him too....

[byron2112]

You might get him with 1.6 and McCaffery if this guy's a fan... prolly have to throw in that valued 3rd rounder tho..

Edited May 5, 2018 by byron2112

[FastSteve]

3 hours ago, millworkguy said:

Didn't bother to read all of that, and you keep going to rg3, football picks do go bust all the time, but let's remember fantasy football top picks and NFL picks differ.   rg3 wasn't a fantasy football 1.01 pick, luck was the highest rated qb that year and still wasn't the 1.01 in any of my qb1 leagues.  Your not asking about guice or penny, you want Barkley, and why do you want him?  You can lecture us all you want about name hype and how silly it is that we want him and would pay that much for him, but end of day you want him too....

I'm  bringing up Barkley because he  is the name everyone keeps going too. Honestly I don't follow college ball much at all. I do watch some shows & listen to the breakdown from the draft. Also Barkley does make sense from my point of view as I would have the insurance policy having J Steward on my team who is now with the NYG. I haven't dived deep into this years rookies yet but from what I heard so far Guide Penny or Chubb would be worth taking. But being that so many people grab RB right away I might not be able to get any of them  at #6. Because this is a dynasty & we don't know how byes will fall I plan on taking a promising  QB with whatever is my 2nd pick. I keep 3 QB even though we only start 1 because I have 2 QB on the same bye before. As for Barkley I honestly only know the hype around him. And that is just recently. I don't know much about him yet. 

[FastSteve]

1 hour ago, byron2112 said:

You might get him with 1.6 and McCaffery if this guy's a fan... prolly have to throw in that valued 3rd rounder tho..

I might & I do mean might consider McCaffery & my 2/3 pick 15th overall for it. But I'm fan of CAR myself, 3rd favorite team. McCaffery  was 9th among RB in the league last year. The full PPR helps. Plus I just seen article about how with just a few carries per game he could be even more valuable.

[Big Country]

At this point, let's all just agree that based on the opinions of all of the very experienced dynasty players that have responded to you so far, and all of the examples any of us have found of trades for the #1 overall pick, you severely undervalue what it is generally taking to acquire the #1 pick this year, and should probably focus on who it is you are likely to get at the #6 pick.

 

Based on the drafts i have been in and have seen, you are correct in your assumption that you likely will not get Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Penny or Jones, but will likely get your preferred option of Michel, Freeman or Johnson, though, I have seen Michel go as high as #2, so it is possible that one of Chubb, Penny or Jones falls to you at 6. I have not seen Barkley or Guice drop that far, and have not seen many drafts where any of the QBs or WRs go in the top 5.

[FastSteve]

1 hour ago, Big Country said:

At this point, let's all just agree that based on the opinions of all of the very experienced dynasty players that have responded to you so far, and all of the examples any of us have found of trades for the #1 overall pick, you severely undervalue what it is generally taking to acquire the #1 pick this year, and should probably focus on who it is you are likely to get at the #6 pick.

 

Based on the drafts i have been in and have seen, you are correct in your assumption that you likely will not get Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Penny or Jones, but will likely get your preferred option of Michel, Freeman or Johnson, though, I have seen Michel go as high as #2, so it is possible that one of Chubb, Penny or Jones falls to you at 6. I have not seen Barkley or Guice drop that far, and have not seen many drafts where any of the QBs or WRs go in the top 5.

MY opinion is ONE player is being way overvalued. Like I said one player does not make a team. Be it fantasy or the NFL. I left out a little bit on that last statement about McCaffery. I would also include Edelman in that deal. I'll tell you straight up if I'm going to hear a top 10 (this league's format) RB who is only going into his 2nd year, so career time barring injury is virtually the same as player drafted this season), a Brady possession WR who should have several more seasons left (he takes very good care of himself by all accounts) & my 3rd round isn't worth the 1st, I'm not interested. I'm not giving up an entire  mansion for a SINGLE  pick/player. I might also throw in a top 20 DB if need be, but that would be as far as I would be willing to go & feel like I'm actually getting return on MY investment.

 

As for the draft, considering because of position limits & players on IR not counting I already have to one way or another unload 2 WR, taking another WR probably isn't the most productive use of my pick. If I don't  make any moves on the D side of the draft this year, I will need to next year. Several of my players at all the D spots will be getting up there at that point. If there isn't any RB worth taking, I will probably grab a QB with my 1st pick. If I can't work anything out for that 1 spot, I should definitely be able to work a deal out to nab the 7th overall also. Or at the very least another 2nd round pick. I will for sure have the players to spare if I don't make any deal on the 1st pick. 

Edited May 7, 2018 by FastSteve

[zips5000]

23 hours ago, FastSteve said:

MY opinion is ONE player is being way overvalued. Like I said one player does not make a team. Be it fantasy or the NFL. I left out a little bit on that last statement about McCaffery. I would also include Edelman in that deal. I'll tell you straight up if I'm going to hear a top 10 (this league's format) RB who is only going into his 2nd year, so career time barring injury is virtually the same as player drafted this season), a Brady possession WR who should have several more seasons left (he takes very good care of himself by all accounts) & my 3rd round isn't worth the 1st, I'm not interested. I'm not giving up an entire  mansion for a SINGLE  pick/player. I might also throw in a top 20 DB if need be, but that would be as far as I would be willing to go & feel like I'm actually getting return on MY investment.

 

As for the draft, considering because of position limits & players on IR not counting I already have to one way or another unload 2 WR, taking another WR probably isn't the most productive use of my pick. If I don't  make any moves on the D side of the draft this year, I will need to next year. Several of my players at all the D spots will be getting up there at that point. If there isn't any RB worth taking, I will probably grab a QB with my 1st pick. If I can't work anything out for that 1 spot, I should definitely be able to work a deal out to nab the 7th overall also. Or at the very least another 2nd round pick. I will for sure have the players to spare if I don't make any deal on the 1st pick. 

If one player is being overvalued and you aren't interested in that player, why are you after 1.01?  Why not go after 1.02 and get your pick of all other players?  Probably will cost you way less and since you aren't interested in the player that is obviously going to go 1.01, you should be all set...

[FastSteve]

5 hours ago, zips5000 said:

If one player is being overvalued and you aren't interested in that player, why are you after 1.01?  Why not go after 1.02 and get your pick of all other players?  Probably will cost you way less and since you aren't interested in the player that is obviously going to go 1.01, you should be all set...

It's not that I am not interested in that one player, it is simply that as good as he is I think people are buying into the hype too far. Believing & willing to give far too much up. If I damage, maybe even considerably by what some people are calling for as a sufficient offer, the TOTAL weekly points production of my team, what point is there in it for me to make the deal? There isn't. Now I'm if course willing to give up depth but I'm not going to overall move backwards on my weekly production. That is just plain stupid to do. 

 

As for 1.2, I doubt the guy will give it up. He took over a bottom team, made some moves & deals & made a hell of an improv to it. He also made a trade last season that nabbed him both a R1 & R2 pick. So obviously he is going after those early picks & they are what probably will get him up another notch. I don't think with as close as he is to making another leap, he is going to give it up.I've got some ideas. I'm just not likely to get anything in the top 3 picks I think. I'm trying to get over that next hump for me. Last 3 years I have finished 3rd through playoffs. One game away from the championship game. And 800 lb gorilla in my division has now taken a dive. I'm trying to strike while the time is right.

[the lone star]

On 5/2/2018 at 3:35 PM, zips5000 said:

If you have 4 picks in top 15, why don't you include a trade with 1 or 2 of them as well.  Yes, you lose whatever, but it's part of the cost of moving up.

 

Agreed. Gotta move one of them.

[FastSteve]

I was talking with the guy with the 1st pick. Went back & forth. I have his interest with RB McCaffery  WR Lee & DB Trumaine Johnson & my R5 pick for his 1st pick & swapping our R3 picks which would move me up 9 spots in the middle round. Said it was & I quote "it really is a fair offer". However he thinks he is leaning towards keeping the pick. If he says no, I will offer to add Edelman to the deal. That however is as far as I will go. If he turns that down, I will see if he would trade me his R3 pick for Edelman & my R5 & move onto making some other deals that could get me another R1 or R2 pick. 

[FastSteve]

I was reviewing the teams in the league & if I don't get this deal done. And I think even though he likes the deal, he just isn't comfortable pulling the trigger. Well this draft is going suck for me. Because here is how it is likely to play out for me. I have the 6th & 10th picks. By the 6th pick, the top 3 RB are mostly likely gone. If not, I get the least valued of the bunch. I take that RB at 6th & there is very good chance between the next 3 teams, the top 2 QB are gone by the 10th pick. If I can't get that 1st, I'm going to make strong play to get that 7th pick also. Think I have a reasonable shot there. I re-looked at the guy with the 1st pick & if that doesn't work, I'm going to see if I can get his 2-12 pick. He has the 3-1 pick so I don't think he will see much difference between giving me the R2 over the R3. Whatever I can get there I will then use as part of a package to get me that 7th pick overall. Hopefully then I can get a draft that I'm relatively happy with. If it doesn't fall the way I want, I may be going 4/5 picks on the D side. I don't want to draft a bunch of so-so good chance of being a bust offensive  players.