Sony Michel in NEP

[darin3]

Spurned by mr9's thread on Rashaad Penny, got me thinking about Sony Michel.  It's very un-Pat/Belichik like to take a RB in the first, so that has to be a consideration, right?

 

I see some Kamara-like qualities here and the offensive firepower the Pats always have lend some similarities to last year's ROY too.

 

Gone is Dion Lewis and I think he had 200+ touches last season.  Figure a chunk of those could go to Michel, but I'm still a hugh Rex Burkhead fan.  I think he can do it all.  James White still in tow and figures into the pass game.

 

Rotoworld's current blurb:

 

Quote

 

Patriots selected Georgia RB Sony Michel with the No. 31 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.

 

Michel (5’11/214) was a committee back throughout his Georgia career, compiling a 590/3,613/6.1/33 rushing line and 64 receptions across four years. Michel caught only nine balls as a senior, but he averaged a scintillating 7.9 yards per carry and showed elite burst and acceleration with a consistent propensity for finishing runs and maximizing yardage with a highly competitive playing style. Michel ran 4.54 at the Combine, a tick slower than Alvin Kamara’s 4.53. Although Michel theoretically lacks high-volume bellcow traits and must polish his ball security – he fumbled 12 times in college – Michel is more than talented enough to become an NFL lead back. Apr 26 - 11:31 PM

 

 

Thoughts?

[Caveman_Nick]

It’s not that unususal for him.

1st round picks:

5x DT

2x TE, OT, LB, RB

1x CB, S, OG

[Big Country]

This is one I am having probably the most trouble ranking.

 

Good talent especially in the running game. Some question on how much he is ready to be used as a receiver. And, as the note above notes, had 12 fumbles in college, which is that happens in the NFL is the fastest way to the bench.

 

Situationally he may be the better running option of the NE backs, but how much does the 1st round pick mean he gets opportunity. I think if NE were a team not in the running for a title, he'd get more leeway, but NE is going to play the guys that will get them back to the SuperBowl regardless of draft pedigree.

 

I've seen arguments for him being as high as the #2 rookie RB, most settling in on him in the 3-5 range, then others pushing him down into the RB7-8 range. No clear consensus.

 

Heck, I think my opinion has flopped twice just while composing this. To me, definitely a guy where I want to see how he does in camp and ideally get some look at him in preseason.

 

For dynasties drafting now, with no additional information, I think I am settling in on him being my RB4-5 out of the rookies.

[darin3]

21 minutes ago, Big Country said:

This is one I am having probably the most trouble ranking.

 

Good talent especially in the running game. Some question on how much he is ready to be used as a receiver. And, as the note above notes, had 12 fumbles in college, which is that happens in the NFL is the fastest way to the bench.

 

Situationally he may be the better running option of the NE backs, but how much does the 1st round pick mean he gets opportunity. I think if NE were a team not in the running for a title, he'd get more leeway, but NE is going to play the guys that will get them back to the SuperBowl regardless of draft pedigree.

 

I've seen arguments for him being as high as the #2 rookie RB, most settling in on him in the 3-5 range, then others pushing him down into the RB7-8 range. No clear consensus.

 

Heck, I think my opinion has flopped twice just while composing this. To me, definitely a guy where I want to see how he does in camp and ideally get some look at him in preseason.

 

For dynasties drafting now, with no additional information, I think I am settling in on him being my RB4-5 out of the rookies.

 

  Totally.  And yeah it would be nice to have some more info going into rookie drafts, but alas they are upon us.  The real question boils down to him vs. potential upside/opportunity of Chubb in Cleveland vs. the possible limited ceiling but instant opportunity for Penny in Seattle vs. similar thoughts on Jones in Tampa.

 

I think you could toss all four into a bag, reach out and be content with what you get.  I think Guice is probably a half-tier above those four and the clear-cut #2 guy right now.

 

E2A:  Royce Freeman could potentially be thrown into that bag as a guy who'll have some opportunity.

Edited May 4, 2018 by darin3

[DMD]

The only other first round back taken while Belichick was there was Laurence Maroney who ran 175-745-6 and caught 22-194-1. I have a great problem trying to decide what Michel is most likely to do. Historically, Belichick doesn't much like rookie RBs. And he really, really likes guys who are good at pass protection which is much more important now than 12 years ago when Maroney started. I would guess that game-to-game it will be very hard to call - like most backs there - but at least overall Michel has the brightest outlook of any of them by a big margin. Maybe running the ball more is a consideration to help keep Brady fresher and safer. He's the kind of guy that you want to like a lot, know that there is an equal chance he'll disappoint as there is he'll delight and more than anything, you have to know every week you have to start him regardless of what he did the last week because of the chance he'll have a big game.

[michaelredd9]

Michel doesn't have much competition for main ball carrier.  The Patriots have no other running back that is good at running the ball.  And he has good receiving skills despite getting only 9 receptions last year.  He could potentially play 60%-70% of snaps and average 20 touches.

 

Edited May 5, 2018 by michaelredd9

[tazinib1]

Except the second time he fumbles, he'll be in the proverbial BB doghouse. Which is almost as sure as death and taxes. 

[kdko]

Never again...

 

 

I'm staying away from all NE and Philly RB's this year, y'all should do the same!

[Wolverines Fan]

8 hours ago, tazinib1 said:

Except the second time he fumbles, he'll be in the proverbial BB doghouse. Which is almost as sure as death and taxes. 

 

Exactly.

 

Or if Michel screws up in pass protection and Brady gets pulverized, that gets you a stay in BB's doghouse too.

 

 

[kdko]

1 hour ago, Wolverines Fan said:

 

Exactly.

 

Or if Michel screws up in pass protection and Brady gets pulverized, that gets you a stay in BB's doghouse too.

 

 

 

I thought Michel had good pass protection actually?

[michaelredd9]

PFF gave Michel a pass-blocking efficiency of 96.9 last year which ranked 13th among draft-eligible running backs.  Fumbles seem to be his only real problem (aside from his knee).  I could see Belichick giving Michel a longer leash than normal when it comes to fumbling as long as he is practicing hard and doing well in pass protection.  It might take until the 3rd or 4th fumble for him to enter the doghouse.

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by michaelredd9