GBP backfield

[darin3]

I know it's just May, but Jamaal Wiliams is currently listed as the RB1 for the Packers.  This could be a highly productive spot and I figured Ty Montgomery was the man there.  Maybe Rotoworld just hasn't updated since end of last season?

 

In general, what are folks thinking about this backfield?  Aaron Jones looked good in spots, too.

[Big John]

Montgomery is injury prone.  Look for a battle between Williams and Jones for the top spot.

[darin3]

1 minute ago, Big John said:

Montgomery is injury prone.  Look for a battle between Williams and Jones for the top spot.

 

Yeah?

 

 

From Rotoworld:

 

Quote

 

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said people will "see a bigger, stronger Ty Montgomery this year."

 

Montgomery stuck around in Green Bay over the offseason to work with Packers strength and conditioning coordinator Mark Lovat in hopes of improving his durability. "I know that I can be a really good football player; I just need to stay healthy," Montgomery said. "I’m looking forward to getting one full healthy season under my belt." Unlikely to get true lead-back workloads with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones also vying for touches, Montgomery should have a better shot to stay healthy this season, but that competition also makes him much less interesting from a fantasy perspective. Apr 12 - 9:17 AM

 

 

I really hoped Montgomery had the inside track.  Maybe not.

[byron2112]

I thought I read Ty was going more towards WR this year somewhere?

 

I own Jones... he had a couplea great games, can be explosive, which Williams seems to lack... too bad he got hurt, I felt like he was building something there for a couplea weeks... that team has been waiting on someone to work out for soo long..

[michaelredd9]

I wonder if Williams is atop the depth chart only because he ended last season atop the depth chart.  Putting Jones back atop the depth chart would be akin to handing him the job.  I doubt they were intending on doing that before he was arrested but his arrest probably eliminated any chance of it.  Jones might even start the year with a one-game suspension.  I do think that Jones looked great last year.  Williams looked serviceable.  I'll definitely be targeting Jones if he falls far enough.

 

[Dolphin_Akie]

Ty Montgomery is going to be used all over the formation apparently. Makes it sound like he'll probably mix it up between WR and pass catching RB to me.

 

I preferred Aaron Jones to Jamaal Williams but hard to really know at this stage. 

[MTSuper7]

Well, when you consider that Green Bay was forced to use Ty Montgomery out of desperation two seasons ago when everyone in front of him got hurt, then they drafted two RBs immediately following the 2016 season, it doesn't exactly tell me that the Packers felt settled at the position. Granted, it's not impossible to think that Ty Montgomery could become the alpha in that backfield, but I have a hard time imagining that his value isn't going to hinge almost completely on his passing game chops or one of the other two RBs getting hurt to give him more opportunity for carries. 

 

This will be a very interesting situation to monitor this preseason. I am guessing, though, that Montgomery's role will be solid as more of a pass catcher / occasional runner and that it'll be more about Jones vs. Williams for lead early down back duties.

[the lone star]

I like Jones more than Williams, but I think Williams can handle more touches.

[ABearWithFurniture]

Jones was arrested last year just days before he took over the lead back position, so I doubt GB has any qualms about starting him again this season...he by far IMO looked the best out of any of their RBs and Ty Montgomery. 

[Big John]

25 minutes ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

Jones was arrested last year just days before he took over the lead back position, so I doubt GB has any qualms about starting him again this season...he by far IMO looked the best out of any of their RBs and Ty Montgomery. 

The start vs. Dallas was necessitated with injuries to Montgomery and Williams, though he looked good in that game.

[darin3]

Jones was a favorite of mine in last year's rookie crop.  I saw him single-handedly destroy a very good University of Texas run defense.  With nothing but scraps around him.  Granted one of the OLs blocking for him turned out to be pretty solid (drafted by Giants in 2nd Round -- Hernandez I believe). 

 

Anyways, if it's an open competition I would not rule out Jones.  I just thought all signs were pointing towards Montgomery being given the keys.  Maybe that's not the case.

A situation to monitor for sure!

[Gopher]

Montgomery seemed like more of a stop-gap solution to me, at a time when they didn’t have much else at RB.  

 

I remember last year (about this time) there was conversation/speculation as to whether or not he would remain a RB, or move back to WR.  

 

With the way GB has drafted WR’s the past few years, I’m guessing he’s staying at RB.  That said, I don’t necessarily know that he’s got the inside track to the “starting” gig.  It seems more like a time-share situation between the three, or whichever ones happen to be healthy on any given week.  And, realistically, keeping them all active/sharing might contribute to keeping them all fresh/healthy.  

 

Unless one of them shows that he’s head and shoulders above the rest, terms of productivity, I think they’ll all have minimal fantasy value.  Some value in deeper leagues maybe, but in standard leagues, your best bet might be to hang on to the one you like most, in hopes that he’s startable on weeks when one of the others is out due to injury.  Which, in all reality, is more of a matter of when than if.  

 

All of THAT said, this is all pure speculation/opinion on my part.  

Edited May 16, 2018 by Gopher

[MERLINS]

I like Williams.  The offense last year without Rodgers seemed to move better with Williams being solid in the run game as well as passing game.  Jones probably factors as a change of pace and 3rd downer.  Montgomery is gonna be used all over the place.  All of this my gut feeling and based on nothing else. LoL.

[ABearWithFurniture]

15 hours ago, MERLINS said:

I like Williams.  The offense last year without Rodgers seemed to move better with Williams being solid in the run game as well as passing game.  Jones probably factors as a change of pace and 3rd downer.  Montgomery is gonna be used all over the place.  All of this my gut feeling and based on nothing else. LoL.

 

IDK...Williams averaged about 3.8 yards a carry while Jones averaged about 5.5, although Jamaal did have almost twice as many carries.  Williams averaged over 10 yards a reception and scored a few times, so possibly it's the other way around and he's the 3rd down back and Jones is in on first and second.

[michaelredd9]

5 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

 

IDK...Williams averaged about 3.8 yards a carry while Jones averaged about 5.5, although Jamaal did have almost twice as many carries.  Williams averaged over 10 yards a reception and scored a few times, so possibly it's the other way around and he's the 3rd down back and Jones is in on first and second.

 

Williams is also excellent at pass protection whereas Jones is poor at it.  Jamaal definitely seems better suited to be the 3rd down back.  The Packers might even prefer to have Williams as a 3-down back to keep Aaron Rodgers healthy.

 

[ABearWithFurniture]

Jones is a much more diversive RB, more dynamic then Williams will ever be.  Jamaal is a plodder, move the chains type.  JMHO...

[darin3]

15 hours ago, ABearWithFurniture said:

Jones is a much more diversive RB, more dynamic then Williams will ever be.  Jamaal is a plodder, move the chains type.  JMHO...

 

Totally agree 

[michaelredd9]

On 5/17/2018 at 8:35 AM, ABearWithFurniture said:

 

Jones is a much more diversive RB, more dynamic then Williams will ever be.  Jamaal is a plodder, move the chains type.  JMHO...

 

 

It's hard to say Jones is more dynamic when Williams is a far superior pass protector and possibly a better receiver.  Jones is more dynamic running the ball.  But coaches like a running back they can trust.  This is even more true when the quarterback is Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers' offense doesn't need a spark from Jones.  But they do need Rodgers to stay healthy.  And a lot of good coaches like smash mouth, move the chain plodders.  Their ypc doesn't reflect the punishment they put on the defense.  Bill Belichick would probably prefer Williams.  Starting Jones on the bench is also a way to ensure he stays focused on improving in pass protection.  It might start off as a committee.  But if one running back were to win the job outright to start the season, I think Williams is more likely.  It'll probably take until later in the season for Jones to have a chance to be the main guy.  I still like Jones because he did look special at times last year and improving in pass protection is very doable.  But he might be a guy that I target in a trade after the season has begun and his value has dropped.

 

Both Jones (83.90) and Williams (90.40) have reasonable adps.  I could see drafting them both in rounds 7-9 and waiting to see how things shake out.  But Ty Montgomery might be the most enticing of the three with his 14th round adp of 138.04.  The Packers certainly aren't thinking of using Montgomery as a workhorse running back with his injury concerns.  But I'm not counting him out.  He could be used at running back, receiver, or both.  With his ability to play multiple positions, it won't be difficult for him to play 60%-80% of snaps.  He has the potential to get a lot of receptions.  And he is in a contract year which means the Packers aren't going to worry about his long-term health and he'll do everything he can to stay on the field.

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by michaelredd9

[Big John]

 If you believe this article, they will be going RBBC: http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/45079/a-saints-approach-packers-could-copy-new-orleans-run-plan

[darin3]

45 minutes ago, Big John said:

 If you believe this article, they will be going RBBC: http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/45079/a-saints-approach-packers-could-copy-new-orleans-run-plan

 

Not shocking at all.  Gonna be a fantasy mess.  

[michaelredd9]

I am salivating over the low fantasy cost and hugh potential of this backfield.  An Aaron Rodgers led offense will produce fantasy points at running back.  And the Packers have one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL.  Even with the multitude of injuries on their offensive line last season, they led the NFL with 2.04 yards-before-contact on carries.  That included Bryan Bulaga missing 11 games and David Bakhtiari missing 4 games.  Those two are arguably the best offensive tackle tandem in the league and they are expected to return healthy.  

 

What McCarthy said was pretty much a non-statement.  It was coachdoublespeak.  After saying they would have a committee approach at running back, he said "But if one of them would emerge as that full-time guy then you have to have that ability to ... adjust to that"  In other words, it won't necessarily be a committee.  Jones and Montgomery will be the ones that I target.  Aaron Jones has the potential to be a fantasy stud.  McCarthy might even have Jones penciled in as the starter but doesn't want to announce him as the starter in order to keep a fire lit under him.  Jones is also likely going to start the season with a one game suspension.  So it makes sense to wait until a few games into the season to officially make him the starter.  I am hoping the news that they are planning to have a RBBC and that Jones will be suspended will cause his adp to fall further.  Jones does need to improve at pass protection.  I will be watching him closely in the preseason to make sure he has improved at it.  Nothing will make him lose the chance to be the starter like allowing Aaron Rodgers to get blowed up.  Montgomery is a wildcard but his adp of 132.76 is a small price to pay for a player who has the chance to be PPR gold.  Williams could do well for the likely one game suspension of Jones or if Jones got hurt, but I think his best scenario is being part of a committee as long as Jones is healthy.

 

This situation isn't like drafting a Bill Belichick running back.  McCarthy has very rarely used a committee approach at running back in the past.  Even when there were multiple running backs used in a season, like last year, you usually knew who was going to be the main ball carrier going into each game.  Mike McCarthy is not a man of mystery.  He is a straight shooter.   And drafting Aaron Jones isn't going to require a 3rd round fantasy pick.  If it did, I would pass because of the murkiness of the situation.  Jones has an adp of 82.86.  Ty Montgomery can be had at the point in the draft where people are drafting defenses and pure handcuffs.  The Packers running backs are low cost/high risk/high reward options.  But can a player even be considered high risk when the cost is so low?

 

Edited June 19, 2018 by michaelredd9

[darin3]

Good luck with all that.   

[michaelredd9]

11 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

Good luck with all that.  

 

 

I don't think I'll even need any luck.  Jones' floor is RB2 unless he gets hurt.  I'll probably need some luck with Montgomery.  But at his adp, he is just a flyer.

 

[kdko]

I hate this backfield with all my heart.  DND territory for me.  Rodgers has never passed much to his RB's on top of all the other woes which kills their value in PPR for me.

[michaelredd9]

3 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Rodgers has never passed much to his RB's

 

 

That might have had more to do with the receiving skills of the running backs.  Eddie Lacy and James Starks weren't great receivers but they combined for 60 and 63 receptions in 2014 and 2015.  Ty Montgomery had 44 receptions while only playing 36% of snaps in 2016.  Although, Ty's use was unique enough that it is hard to draw any parallels to other running backs who will be used differently.