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Julian Edelman facing 4 game ped suspension

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Anybody else thinking he may be done?  It's been running across my mind.  :unsure:

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Fantasywise, I like this.  This makes it more likely he'll be healthy for the fantasy playoffs and it'll lower his adp.

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Posted (edited)

I'm bumping Jordan Matthews up a few notches with this news.  He makes the most sense to play the slot while Edelman is out.  Chris Hogan can play the slot but he is needed more on the outside with Brandin Cooks' departure.  Jordan Matthews had the most yardage from the slot in the NFL from 2014 to 2016.  He also dropped 21 passes during that 3 year span so he'll have to have good hands in the preseason to get the starting nod.  If he is the starting slot, I'll consider starting him in weeks 1-4 (I'll probably wait to see how he does week 1 before taking the risk).  I was already thinking of drafting Matthews because of Edelman's high injury risk.  His adp will certainly go up from it's current 190.19 but he should still be available in rounds 13-16 in a lot of leagues.  He could be a great daily fantasy play in weeks 1-4 as well.

 

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Edited by michaelredd9
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18 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

I'm bumping Jordan Matthews up a few notches with this news.  He makes the most sense to play the slot while Edelman is out.  Chris Hogan can play the slot but he is needed more on the outside with Brandin Cooks' departure.  Jordan Matthews had the most yardage from the slot in the NFL from 2014 to 2016.  He also dropped 21 passes during that 3 year span so he'll have to have good hands in the preseason to get the starting nod.  If he is the starting slot, I'll consider starting him in weeks 1-4 (I'll probably wait to see how he does week 1 before taking the risk).  I was already thinking of drafting Matthews because of Edelman's high injury risk.  His adp will certainly go up from it's current 190.19 but he should still be available in rounds 13-16 in a lot of leagues.  He could be a great daily fantasy play in weeks 1-4 as well.

 

DAarTAMWsAAO5EO.jpg

 

I traded for Matthews in 2 leagues this year. I love his outlook. We'll see. He didn't cost very much. 

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His adp has dropped by a round since news of his suspension came out.  His adp was 56 pre-suspension news and is 68 post-suspension news.  The suspension doesn't bother me as much as his risk of injury.  But he is Mr. Consistency when he does play.  He has had at least 4 receptions in 53 of his last 55 games.  My guess is that I'll be choosing between Edelman, Greg Olsen, or a rookie running back like Royce Freeman with my 6th round pick.  Not an easy choice.

 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

His adp has dropped by a round since news of his suspension came out.  His adp was 56 pre-suspension news and is 68 post-suspension news.  The suspension doesn't bother me as much as his risk of injury.  But he is Mr. Consistency when he does play.  He has had at least 4 receptions in 53 of his last 55 games.  My guess is that I'll be choosing between Edelman, Greg Olsen, or a rookie running back like Royce Freeman with my 6th round pick.  Not an easy choice.

 

He's missing almost a third of the season so I would think his ADP falls farther. This is a guy whose name is going to get him alot more draft action than he deserves. Honestly in the 8th or 9th round I'm still not sure I'd be interested.

Edited by stethant

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Posted (edited)
On 7/5/2018 at 10:31 AM, stethant said:

 

Honestly in the 8th or 9th round I'm still not sure I'd be interested.

 

 

I understand your hesitation.  Edelman is flawed.  But all rbs, wrs, and tes drafted in rounds 6-9 are flawed.  They are all high risk/high reward or just not that good.  The nice thing about Edelman is that he is money if he plays.  You can count on 4+ receptions when he is in the lineup.  If he doesn't play, I will know to start someone else.  The worst high risk players are the ones you start and they get you 2 or 3 points.  A player with bust potential is truly high risk.   With Edelman, I will know to start someone else the first 4 games and that player will be whoever I draft in round 7 or 8.  The flex player I draft in round 7 or 8 isn't that much different than the flex player I could have drafted in round 6.

 

These are the players with adps 10 above and 10 below Edelman's post-suspension adp:

 

56  Miller, Lamar HOU RB 56.57            
57  Freeman, Royce DEN RB 59.83            
58  Engram, Evan NYG TE 60.97            
59  Crabtree, Michael BAL WR 62.42            
60  Watkins, Sammy KC WR 63.19            
61  Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 63.30            
62  Graham, Jimmy GB TE 65.38            
63  Funchess, Devin CAR WR 65.51            
64  Olsen, Greg CAR TE 65.92            
65  Cohen, Tarik CHI RB 66.75            
66  Edelman, Julian NE WR 68.16            
67  Davis, Corey TEN WR 68.98            
68  Hyde, Carlos CLE RB 69.12            
69  Woods, Robert LA WR 69.53            
70  Wilson, Russell SEA QB 69.60            
71  Thompson, Chris WAS RB 70.64            
72  Hogan, Chris NE WR 72.14            
73  Watson, Deshaun HOU QB 74.34            
74  Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 76.96            
75  Johnson, Duke CLE RB 77.55            
76  Fuller, Will HOU WR 77.64        

 

I don't find many of those players more enticing than Edelman.  Some would be head-scratchingly bad picks in the 6th round.  I would definitely draft Russell Wilson ahead of Edelman.  Wilson was the number one fantasy scorer last year.  His legs give him hugh rushing stats and the ability to extend plays so that even bad receivers can get open.  He is unstoppable.  I would tempted to draft Royce Freeman.  He is risky because he is a rookie but his ceiling is higher than Edelman's ceiling.  However, Freeman's adp will probably rise to the 5th round by August.  I like Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen.  They are old and/or injury risks, but they could easily be top-3 tight ends.  I also like Chris Hogan but I would hope he fell further.  I could see drafting both Edelman and Hogan.

 

Edited by michaelredd9

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Yeah, I'm all over Edelman this season.  Love the ADP.  Drop baby, drop.

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Posted (edited)

I wanted to look at how Edelman's adp has changed with his suspension news.  MFL10's adp list now always customizing by any range of days wanted.  Here is Edelman's adp on a day-by-day basis.  His adp today is 71.00 with 4 drafts completed so far at 5:04pm est.  Here is link for MFL10's adp list:  https://mfl10s.sportshubtech.com/adp

 

                              ADP               # of Drafts 

May 25th              53.92                    25

May 26th              56.35                    23

May 27th              54.93                    28

May 28th              53.38                    26

May 29th              53.14                    29

May 30th              54.00                    27

May 31st              55.00                    27

June 1st               54.10                    29

June 2nd              52.65                    26

June 3rd               54.94                    31

June 4th               57.59                    29

June 5th               63.29                    24

June 6th               65.82                    28

Rotoworld reports on June 7th at 1:43pm est that Edelman will be suspended for 4 games.

June 7th               69.39                    31

June 8th               70.43                    23

June 9th               71.18                    28

June 10th             71.00                    30

June 11th             66.00                    29

June 12th             67.16                    31

June 13th             69.59                    32

June 14th             72.48                    27

June 15th             71.86                    28

June 16th             69.13                    32

June 17th             69.88                    33

June 18th             68.96                    27

June 19th             64.71                    28

June 20th             70.21                    28

June 21th             68.12                    26

June 22nd            68.83                    24

June 23rd            68.21                    24

June 24th            64.00                    23

June 25th            66.10                    20

June 26th            64.31                    13

June 27th            67.62                    13

June 28th            64.90                    10

June 29th            61.45                    11

June 30th            64.45                    11

July 1st                64.13                    15

July 2nd               63.40                    10

Rotoworld confirms suspension on July 3rd at 7:20pm

July 3rd               68.55                     11

July 4th                67.00                    13

July 5th                66.75                    12

    

 

 

Edited by michaelredd9

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So it appears the bulk of his drop in ADP (from 54 to 67) occurred leading up to the report of his suspension, but since then it has remained pretty steady. 

 

Does that mean the suspension didn't matter, or people were dropping him in drafts on rumors of the suspension, notice the 5.5 jump on June 5th, 2 days before the announcement. 

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