How many carries will Christian McCaffrey get?

[michaelredd9]

Norv Turner and Ron Rivera have said that Christian McCaffrey will be a workhorse.  It it coachspeak or real talk?

 

[DMD]

I think they want him to based on the other talent available. But if he can hold up to that remains to be seen.

[michaelredd9]

32 minutes ago, DMD said:

 

I think they want him to based on the other talent available.

 

 

I don't think CJ Anderson is getting nearly the credit he deserves.  He was PFF's 7th highest graded running back last year.  His run grade was 6th highest and his pass blocking was 3rd highest.  Jonathan Stewart was PFF's 3rd worst graded running back last year and he still outcarried McCaffrey 198-117.  Stewart wasn't even a good pass blocker last year.  CJ Anderson is hugh improvement on Stewart on every level.  McCaffrey is a great receiver.  He is a below average rusher and abysmal at pass blocking.  I don't see why the Panthers would want to increase his carries when he isn't good at rushing the ball and his small body probably can't handle the wear and tear.

 

[DMD]

I've followed Anderson pretty closely in his career and he's just not consistent at best. He had several great games for DEN but he always finished great and started slowly. Anderson had every chance to do something in DEN and wasn't ever more than average overall.  He did run for over 100 yards six times in his career there. But his TDs declined and so did his YPC. He's been an odd one to track. He can get 150 yards or just 20 yards and there isn't always a great key to figure out which one. Maybe a new environment is what he needs since he is only 27. But the Panthers O-line isn't any better than what he just left and he won't be the primary back now.

 

I would not be surprised to see Anderson with more carries than most expect. But for his five years in the league, he's struggled as much as he has excelled. I just lost faith in Anderson turning into more than just an average back capable of the odd good game and a handful of painful clunkers.

[stethant]

I agree with the OP but I have 2 thoughts on this that challenge my assumptions that CMC's ADP is a bit rich right now:

1. Norv Turner loves the bellcow

2. I'm interested in preseason game #3 to see if CMC gets most of the workload. In preseason game #1, he got most of the workload in limited action.

 

I agree McCaffrey is not built for bellcow work and I think Greg Olsen being back will limit his targets in the passing game. Having said all that, I'm open to being wrong on this if preseason action suggests more work for CMC during the regular season. I voted 200-249 carries and think it'll be much closer to 200.

 

[darin3]

200ish.  But he will see a poo-ton of targets in the passing game.  I think ol' Norv is going to get a lot out of him.  I think he might be a steal at the 1st/2nd turn in PPR leagues.

[keggerz]

I'd have rather seen a 175-225 range but think he's in the 200-220 range on carries and 65-80 on catches. Sometimes, especially with RBs, less is more from a productivity standpoint. 

[Wolverines Fan]

Did the math. Last season he averaged 9.8 carries per game and finished with 117 carries. If McCaffrey averages 12 carries per game in 2018, that would get him to 192 assuming no missed contests.

 

McCaffrey is 5'11", 205 pounds. I don't think he's big enough for 200+ carries per season. I'm thinking the 160-170 range myself.

 

 

 

[michaelredd9]

I think McCaffrey is going to have 125-175 carries.  He is small.  He was not a good rusher last year.  Why have a superstar player do something he isn't very good at and that puts him at great risk of injury?  He is great at receiving the ball and that is how he should be featured.  It would make no sense to give him many more carries unless he becomes better at running the ball.  And most running backs don't improve much at running the ball.

 

When a team has a small and talented running back, coaches always say they are going to use them more.  It is usually coachspeak.  No coach is going to be honest and say that the player is too small to handle a big workload.  The small player certainly doesn't want his coach publicly saying he is too small to handle a big workload.  So coaches say the opposite.  Coaches are especially going to lie when the diminutive player is a star and a fan favorite.  Tarik Cohen will also not get a lot of carries this year.  Chris Thompson will again have his carries limited despite his 5.2 ypc career rushing average and the Redskins' need at running back.  And Darren Sproles will once again not get a lot of carries.  Sproles has never had 100 carries in a season despite having a 4.9 ypc career rushing average.  Size matters.

 

I like McCaffrey at his mid-second round adp.  I especially like him when he is available in the low second round which is fairly often.  I've grabbed him twice in the second round after drafting Antonio Brown in the 1st round.  McCaffrey was the 9th highest scoring running back last year despite only having 117 carries.  He is for sure going to be used heavily in their passing game again.  Injury is the only way he busts.  He is available at the point in the draft where there are no more legit tier 1 players available.  His ceiling might be lower than tier 1 but he is a very safe bet to end the season in the top 10 running backs.

 

Edited August 15, 2018 by michaelredd9

[stevegrab]

Is McCaffery really a bad runner? His yards/attempt is pretty good at 3.7, best in NFL was Kamara at 6.1, 4 guys tied at 4.4 to rank 10th. 

 

No doubt he's a better pass catcher than runner, and was targeted as many times last year in the passing game as he had carries. 

 

Like most I went with 200-249, the category below may be more reasonable. With 117 carries as a rookie I'd be surprised if he doesn't go over 150, he would need 2 more rushes per game to reach that level. 

[DMD]

Panthers O-line is not going to be a great help for whatever back is there. Nor is Newton stealing TDs.

[stevegrab]

44 minutes ago, DMD said:

Panthers O-line is not going to be a great help for whatever back is there. Nor is Newton stealing TDs.

 

When I was looking at the list of players with the highest yards per rushing attempt average, noticed quite a few are QBs, Wilson, Cam, Taylor and many more, some with limited carries, but not all. 

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

10 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

I think McCaffrey is going to have 125-175 carries.  He is small.  He was not a good rusher last year.  Why have a superstar player do something he isn't very good at and that puts him at great risk of injury?  He is great at receiving the ball and that is how he should be featured.  It would make no sense to give him many more carries unless he becomes better at running the ball.  And most running backs don't improve much at running the ball.

 

When a team has a small and talented running back, coaches always say they are going to use them more.  It is usually coachspeak.  No coach is going to be honest and say that the player is too small to handle a big workload.  The small player certainly doesn't want his coach publicly saying he is too small to handle a big workload.  So coaches say the opposite.  Coaches are especially going to lie when the diminutive player is a star and a fan favorite.  Tarik Cohen will also not get a lot of carries this year.  Chris Thompson will again have his carries limited despite his 5.2 ypc career rushing average and the Redskins' need at running back.  And Darren Sproles will once again not get a lot of carries.  Sproles has never had 100 carries in a season despite having a 4.9 ypc career rushing average.  Size matters.

 

I like McCaffrey at his mid-second round adp.  I especially like him when he is available in the low second round which is fairly often.  I've grabbed him twice in the second round after drafting Antonio Brown in the 1st round.  McCaffrey was the 9th highest scoring running back last year despite only having 117 carries.  He is for sure going to be used heavily in their passing game again.  Injury is the only way he busts.  He is available at the point in the draft where there are no more legit tier 1 players available.  His ceiling might be lower than tier 1 but he is a very safe bet to end the season in the top 10 running backs.

 

carolinas offensive line was bad......he actually showed some flashes running the ball...i followed him quite a bit...but they were pretty relucatant to use him early on

 

mccaffrey played all 15 snaps in the 1st preseason game with the 1st team...and got a GL carry from the two(where hes normally removed)...CJ anderson played with the 3rd team into the 4th...just some food for thought...although i know its early and its early in the preseason...

 

i can see cmac getting 200 ...with the potential to get 210-220

 

IMO you dont take a back that high wiht the intent to give him 125 carries....even if hes getting a heavy receiving workload.......hes not going to get 400 touches like bell and those guys...but i could see him around 300 touches.....hes a pretty tough kid 

 

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

i should add to my last reply

 

i think carolina was reluctant to lean on him early...they eased him in and wanted to see how he handled his size deficiency....as the year went on they opened up a bit with him and if you look at the 2nd half of the year his YPC increased....the last 8 games he actually rushed the ball fairly well.....

 

but what concerned me is alot of his big reception days came in losses ....he tallied 19 catches in two losses to philly and new olreans(good offenses that scored points on them)...he sort of needs a few of those track meet games where they are trailing ....alot of his catches came in 2 minute offense at the end of halves or when trailing....i could see his catch total maybe coming down if games dont flow a certain way.......although i think at this point now they know what they have with him and maybe can do more to design stuff to get him the ball...didnt seem like they did alot of that(just from what i think i remember watching).....i think the idea was to keep a guy like him fresh for a playoff run last year..now i think they know they need him to get there in the first place

[MTSuper7]

Since when is 5-11, 205 pounds considered small for an NFL running back? I don't understand that criticism of McCaffrey. I'll agree that he's maybe not prototypical of a bellcow, but people are acting like he's Warrick Dunn.

 

Here is a list of RBs similar-ish in size to McCaffrey:

 

LeSean McCoy (5'11", 210)

Kareem Hunt (5'11", 215)

Devonta Freeman (5'8", 206)

Alex Collins (5'10", 208)

Aaron Jones (5'9", 208)

Jerick McKinnon (5'9", 205)

 

Some of the above might not be bellcow material, but we've seen McCoy and Freeman fare just fine in the NFL. And Alex Collins was a workhorse the last half of 2017. I guess my point is that we shouldn't assume McCaffrey can't handle the workload based on his size. He seemed to do well with a bellcow role at Stanford (averaged 23.6 carries at over 6 yards per in his last two seasons there). That doesn't mean NFL success is guaranteed, but I would be surprised if we didn't see his total touches climb near or slightly above 20 per game. I chose 200-250 carries, but I think it'll be the high end of that number (15 carries/game = 240 over the season). I think 280+ touches is a near lock.

 

ETA: I forgot to add Dalvin Cook to the above list (5'10", 210). I've not heard anyone express concern with his bellcow-ability.

Edited August 15, 2018 by MTSuper7

[Cowboyz1]

It's one thing to get the ball, it's another to keep the body together while doing it. Many try few succeed. You have to be pretty special to be small, and durable. It takes being very elusive at the last minute to avoid that extra they like to give you down low. It also takes a lot of mental toughness to grind it out all season with that kind of load. I wouldn't count on it until I saw it done first.

[michaelredd9]

15 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

i think carolina was reluctant to lean on him early...they eased him in and wanted to see how he handled his size deficiency....as the year went on they opened up a bit with him and if you look at the 2nd half of the year his YPC increased....the last 8 games he actually rushed the ball fairly well.

 

 

McCaffrey averaged 2.3 ypc in the first 8 games and he averaged 4.6 ypc in the last 8 games of the season.  It is skewed a bit because had a nice stretch from weeks 10-12 where he averaged 4.4ypc, 4.6ypc, and 8.8 ypc.  If you include that 3 game stretch with the first 8 games, he averaged 3.5 ypc over the first 11 games and he averaged 4.0 ypc over the last 6 games of the season including the playoff game.  In 3 of those last 6 games, he ran for 6-16, 6-16, and 6-19.  So he didn't really end the season as good as the 4.6 ypc stat would indicate.

 

McCaffrey weighed 202 at the combine.  There are zero workhorse running backs currently in the NFL that weighed that little at the combine.  And when I watch him, he looks smaller than 202 pounds.  I don't believe the reports of him gaining weight.  He is muscular and has a big upper body.  He isn't thick in the ass and thighs.  The lower body is more important than the upper body for the success and durability of a running back running the ball.

 

McCaffrey played 70% of snaps last year and only got 117 carries.  They did not want him running the ball.  They did not have him running the ball much at the end of the year in games that mattered even though Jonathan Stewart was horrible.  What has changed from last year to this year other than Jonathan Stewart being replaced by a better running back?  CJ Anderson is a good running back.  He is a bowling ball.  He is the opposite of McCaffrey in every aspect.  Their skill sets complement each other well.  They are thunder and lightning.  CJ will play at least 40% of snaps.  CJ will get most of the between-the-tackles carries.  CJ will get more total carries than McCaffrey.  They will probably end up close in total touches.

 

Edited August 16, 2018 by michaelredd9

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

McCaffrey averaged 2.3 ypc in the first 8 games and he averaged 4.6 ypc in the last 8 games of the season.  It is skewed a bit because had a nice stretch from weeks 10-12 where he averaged 4.4ypc, 4.6ypc, and 8.8 ypc.  If you include that 3 game stretch with the first 8 games, he averaged 3.5 ypc over the first 11 games and he averaged 4.0 ypc over the last 6 games of the season including the playoff game.  In 3 of those last 6 games, he ran for 6-16, 6-16, and 6-19.  So he didn't really end the season as good as the 4.6 ypc stat would indicate.

 

McCaffrey weighed 202 at the combine.  There are zero workhorse running backs currently in the NFL that weighed that little at the combine.  And when I watch him, he looks smaller than 202 pounds.  I don't believe the reports of him gaining weight.  He is muscular and has a big upper body.  He isn't thick in the ass and thighs.  The lower body is more important than the upper body for the success and durability of a running back running the ball.

 

McCaffrey played 70% of snaps last year and only got 117 carries.  They did not want him running the ball.  They did not have him running the ball much at the end of the year in games that mattered even though Jonathan Stewart was horrible.  What has changed from last year to this year other than Jonathan Stewart being replaced by a better running back?  CJ Anderson is a good running back.  He is a bowling ball.  He is the opposite of McCaffrey in every aspect.  Their skill sets compliment each other well.  They are thunder and lightning.  CJ will play at least 40% of snaps.  CJ will get most of the between-the-tackles carries.  CJ will get more total carries than McCaffrey.  They will probably end up close in total touches.

 

yeah stats can be misleading...just as I said he had 19 catches in 2 shootouts where they had to keep pace with saints and eagles....how many 10 and 9 catch games did you see him have? ...certainly helped inflate his numbers in that area yet everyone still projects him to have a similar # of catches

 

I understand about "coach speak"...you get it every year from just about every coach about at least one guy......coach speak actually suggested cmac could touch the ball 25x a game...which I think is ridic....but it doesn't mean he cant/wont have an uptick in touches at all

 

Carolinas offense regressed...they scored less points last year than in their previous 6-10 season...they canned shula...he was not creative....like I said a lot of what I saw in mcaffreys production was more out of gamelfow....didn't seem like by heck of a lot of design.......now I think is the time to realize you spent the 8th overall pick on a hybrid and you need to get something out of it even if you run it into the ground over the next few years.......they also lost an all pro guard and their offensive line wasn't very good to begin with

 

essentially you are acting as if they panthers spent on a top 10 pick on a 3rd down back.....lol..i don't think that's what they had in mind...you can get theo Riddick much later in nfl drafts

 

I cant say he can hold up...i just don't know.....rbs are running injury risks...all of them

 

what I can say, and will bet with you on, is if the finishes 15 games he will hit 200 carries

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

14 hours ago, MTSuper7 said:

Since when is 5-11, 205 pounds considered small for an NFL running back? I don't understand that criticism of McCaffrey. I'll agree that he's maybe not prototypical of a bellcow, but people are acting like he's Warrick Dunn.

 

Here is a list of RBs similar-ish in size to McCaffrey:

 

LeSean McCoy (5'11", 210)

Kareem Hunt (5'11", 215)

Devonta Freeman (5'8", 206)

Alex Collins (5'10", 208)

Aaron Jones (5'9", 208)

Jerick McKinnon (5'9", 205)

 

Some of the above might not be bellcow material, but we've seen McCoy and Freeman fare just fine in the NFL. And Alex Collins was a workhorse the last half of 2017. I guess my point is that we shouldn't assume McCaffrey can't handle the workload based on his size. He seemed to do well with a bellcow role at Stanford (averaged 23.6 carries at over 6 yards per in his last two seasons there). That doesn't mean NFL success is guaranteed, but I would be surprised if we didn't see his total touches climb near or slightly above 20 per game. I chose 200-250 carries, but I think it'll be the high end of that number (15 carries/game = 240 over the season). I think 280+ touches is a near lock.

 

ETA: I forgot to add Dalvin Cook to the above list (5'10", 210). I've not heard anyone express concern with his bellcow-ability.

good stuff

 

hate to say it....but I think a lot of peoples issue with cmac is the ole stereotype.....the eyes tell you he doesn't belong......sure it was all cute and feel good when he was tearing up defenses out west in college....but now hes with the big boys in the nfl and the 8th overall pick? no way...he just cant and wont succeed!

[Avernus]

I like any back in a Norv Turner system but  I am not overly high on any back on this team. I also won’t take CMC early enough to find out...

[Def.]

Seems like standard operating procedure in the NFL to make smaller backs bigger and bigger backs smaller.  For instance, Fat Eddy was always reported at a lighter weight.  Definitely think CMC was in the smaller category last year.  Guess we'll see soon enough if his supposed bulk up helps, but I wouldn't bet on a vast difference because of a supposed 5 extra pounds.  Honestly think 300 touches is his ceiling and he is more likely to carry less then 200 times. 

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

2 minutes ago, Def. said:

Seems like standard operating procedure in the NFL to make smaller backs bigger and bigger backs smaller.  For instance, Fat Eddy was always reported at a lighter weight.  Definitely think CMC was in the smaller category last year.  Guess we'll see soon enough if his supposed bulk up helps, but I wouldn't bet on a vast difference because of a supposed 5 extra pounds.  Honestly think 300 touches is his ceiling and he is more likely to carry less then 200 times. 

I just think its difficult to make a call on mccaffrey based on last year and his usage....and certainly not on his ypc

 

mixon had what? 130 carries last year? 3.5 a carry? and hes 6-1 220+lbs(at least was last year)........yet people are still taking him mid-late 2nd and projecting him for 230 carries and hes supposedly slimmed down

 

 

[DMD]

For what it is worth, his college rushing stats for his last two seasons were 337-2019-8 (14 games) and 253-1603-13 (11 games).  His final two years totaled 382 and 290 touches.
 

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

1 minute ago, DMD said:

For what it is worth, his college rushing stats for his last two seasons were 337-2019-8 (14 games) and 253-1603-13 (11 games).  His final two years totaled 382 and 290 touches.
 

like ive said...I don't expect him to be a 25-28 touch a game guy.....but I don't see why 300 touches seems out of the question to some of these guys

 

to me his unimpressive rushing numbers have more factors than him just being too white and too small....more about offensive problems as a whole....and maybe a reluctancy by the coaching staff to give him too much...and def a lack of ability to adapt by the OC who was handed a new toy he didn't really know how to handle

[Def.]

12 minutes ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

I just think its difficult to make a call on mccaffrey based on last year and his usage....and certainly not on his ypc

 

I didn't, was just my opinion based on his size.