MTSuper7

Who is the best QB value in redrafts?

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My answer to this question: Alex Smith. I think he will finish as a QB1, with a ceiling around 5 or 6. He is currently the 18th QB coming off the boards according to fantasy football calculator mocks. Here's why I'm high on Alex Smith:

 

  • No Guice means the same old meh running game.
  • Jay Gruden got a QB6 finish out of Kirk Cousins in 2016 and a QB8 finish out of him last year.
  • An argument could be made that Alex Smith is better than Kirk Cousins.
  • Washington's defense isn't going to do the offense any favors

 

He's one of my favorite backups to draft.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

If he stayed in KC I would agree with you.  I think wash is a bad situation for him.  

 

 

I think Carr bounces back

Edited by Bier Meister

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25 minutes ago, MTSuper7 said:

My answer to this question: Alex Smith. I think he will finish as a QB1, with a ceiling around 5 or 6. He is currently the 18th QB coming off the boards according to fantasy football calculator mocks. Here's why I'm high on Alex Smith:

 

  • No Guice means the same old meh running game.
  • Jay Gruden got a QB6 finish out of Kirk Cousins in 2016 and a QB8 finish out of him last year.
  • An argument could be made that Alex Smith is better than Kirk Cousins.
  • Washington's defense isn't going to do the offense any favors

 

He's one of my favorite backups to draft.

 

 

pair him with Case Keenum (ADP 26)

and you've got success at QB while stacking at other positions.

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4 hours ago, LordOpie said:

pair him with Case Keenum (ADP 26)

and you've got success at QB while stacking at other positions.

I am not nearly as optimistic about Keenum, but you're right in that I could stack elsewhere and grab Keenum literally in the last round. I'd rather get two high upside QB2 types in the mid to late rounds though. So maybe pair Alex Smith with the likes of Eli (gotta like the supporting cast and arrival of Shurmur) or Trubisky (again, nice supporting cast and aggressive, young coaching change). 

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5 hours ago, Bier Meister said:

If he stayed in KC I would agree with you.  I think wash is a bad situation for him.  

 

 

I think Carr bounces back

 

If Smith stayed in KC, he wouldn't have nearly as good a price tag.

 

I'm curious about what is so bad in WAS. Cousins routinely made lemonade out of those lemons. They still have Doctson, Crowder, Thompson, Reed (health notwithstanding - is there a more brittle core of receiving talent in the league?). They added Paul Richardson (sorta meh, but better than Pryor). And they are going to have to rely on the pass without Guice. I don't believe in a 33 yo Adrian Peterson any more than I believed in Kelley or Perine.

 

Jay Gruden made a top 10 QB out of Andy Dalton before heading to Washington. Dalton's best fantasy finish ever was Gruden's last year there (4300+ yds, 33TDs). Dalton has been QB2 material pretty much the rest of his fantasy career.

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Cousins had Garcon and desean. I am not as confident in Washington's offense as you are. I do think tight ends should do well with Smith.

 

Dalton also had more talent than Smith now has in Washington.

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Posted (edited)

I'm leaning toward a strategy of drafting only one quarterback in the 16th round.  Carr or Keenum probably provide the best value at that point of the draft.  I don't see much difference between quarterbacks 8 through 20.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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Another quarterback I think provides a lot of value is Aaron Rodgers.  He has a 5th round adp.  The running backs and wide receivers available in the 5th round are not quality.  At best, they are tier 3 with upside.  Rodgers is consistent and capable of scoring 500 fantasy points in a season.  He is worth more than the other 5th round options.

 

A nice side benefit of drafting Aaron Rodgers is he has a lot of trade value to the owner in the league who is stacked at running back and wide receiver.  They will give 2-4 quality players for Rodgers.  He is the last piece of the puzzle in their quest to create the perfect team.  Gronk will also get these kinds of lopsided trade offers.

 

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2 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

Another quarterback I think provides a lot of value is Aaron Rodgers.  He has a 5th round adp.  The running backs and wide receivers available in the 5th round are not quality.  At best, they are tier 3 with upside.  Rodgers is consistent and capable of scoring 500 fantasy points in a season.  He is worth more than the other 5th round options.

 

A nice side benefit of drafting Aaron Rodgers is he has a lot of trade value to the owner in the league who is stacked at running back and wide receiver.  They will give 2-4 quality players for Rodgers.  He is the last piece of the puzzle in their quest to create the perfect team.  Gronk will also get these kinds of lopsided trade offers.

 

 

I always laugh when I see things like Aaron Rodgers has a 5th round ADP. I've never seen the first quarterback in any of my leagues last even remotely that long. Rodgers will be long gone by the 5th in all of my leagues.

 

Rodgers is also a higher injury risk than most other QBs.

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I agree  Rogers never makes it past the third round.

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On 8/20/2018 at 5:15 PM, Bier Meister said:

Cousins had Garcon and desean. I am not as confident in Washington's offense as you are. I do think tight ends should do well with Smith.

 

Dalton also had more talent than Smith now has in Washington.

Cousins finished QB8 last year without both of those guys (Garcon or DeSean). All I'm saying is the QB of a Jay Gruden offense is highly likely to finish the year as a QB1 based on his track record. This will be an interesting year to see how both Cousins and Smith do.

 

I also think Blake Bortles deserves consideration as a value, mainly because he is going in the low to mid 20s of all QBs, but the guy never finishes below middle of the pack and always seems to deliver QB1 numbers during the fantasy playoffs somehow.

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27 minutes ago, MTSuper7 said:

 

Cousins finished QB8 last year without both of those guys (Garcon or DeSean). All I'm saying is the QB of a Jay Gruden offense is highly likely to finish the year as a QB1 based on his track record. This will be an interesting year to see how both Cousins and Smith do.

 

 

It's going to be interesting.  It is super rare for a legitimate starting quarterback to switch teams.  Cousins is going to a better situation.  Smith is more likely to take a step back.  Andy Reid is a great coach and it was Alex's 5th year in his system.  And he had great weapons in Kelce and Hill.  Smith truly blossomed last year.  He was not just a game manager.  Andy Reid maybe should have made Mahomes sit the bench for another year.

 

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Call me crazy, but I think Garoppolo is a steal going in the later rounds in most drafts.  He was solid last season and has only been strengthening his rapport with his receiving corp since then.  Even better, the defenses in the NFC West have taken a step back.  Seattle's defense is far from the 'Legion of Boom' it once was, and the Cardinals defense has taken a few steps back as well.  San Fran won't be blowing anyone out so they'll have to stay true to their passing game late in games. 

 

I'm a risk taker, but to me, passing on the top 10 ranked QBs (per most cheat sheets) and rolling with Jimmy G as my starting QB is low risk.  It allows me to load up on better talent at the key positions earlier in the draft when other bozo's are passing on them for top rated QBs. 

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8 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

It's going to be interesting.  It is super rare for a legitimate starting quarterback to switch teams.  Cousins is going to a better situation.  Smith is more likely to take a step back.  Andy Reid is a great coach and it was Alex's 5th year in his system.  And he had great weapons in Kelce and Hill.  Smith truly blossomed last year.  He was not just a game manager.  Andy Reid maybe should have made Mahomes sit the bench for another year.

 

Agree

6 hours ago, Shorttynaz said:

Call me crazy, but I think Garoppolo is a steal going in the later rounds in most drafts.  He was solid last season and has only been strengthening his rapport with his receiving corp since then.  Even better, the defenses in the NFC West have taken a step back.  Seattle's defense is far from the 'Legion of Boom' it once was, and the Cardinals defense has taken a few steps back as well.  San Fran won't be blowing anyone out so they'll have to stay true to their passing game late in games. 

 

I'm a risk taker, but to me, passing on the top 10 ranked QBs (per most cheat sheets) and rolling with Jimmy G as my starting QB is low risk.  It allows me to load up on better talent at the key positions earlier in the draft when other bozo's are passing on them for top rated QBs. 

I don't think Jimmy is a sleeper

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2 hours ago, Ramhock said:

Goff

Goff is entirely free - just play the QBBC matchups and you're all set. I think he's very unlikely to be top 5 for the year but a QB1 in spot start roles - absolutely. There's no need this year to pick one QB and play only one QB. 

 

If anyone could get ARod in the 5th round that might also be the right answer but I agree with others: there are too many fish who take these QBs in round 2.

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I’m all in on Big Ben, he’s very capable and has sooooo many weapons. Especially now with Washington playing like he can make an immediate impact. 

 

He’s going after Rivers in some of my drafts (I like Felipe Riverrrrssss too). 

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I second Garoppolo. Maybe ya'll play with more savvy players but he's been lasting surprisingly long in most of my drafts. I snagged him as my QB in the 14th in my last draft.

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On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 8:24 PM, SanAntonioFootball said:

I’m all in on Big Ben, he’s very capable and has sooooo many weapons. Especially now with Washington playing like he can make an immediate impact. 

 

He’s going after Rivers in some of my drafts (I like Felipe Riverrrrssss too). 

Hopefully you grab someone else to go along with him.  He's a stud at home, sucks on the road - and he's consistent with this over the past 4 seasons.  I read an article somewhere yesterday that said he averages 23 points a game at home, and barely over 15 on the road.  I didn't believe it - and sure enough when I looked it up I was shocked.  I'd still consider him, but if I did, he would not be my only starting QB.

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i grabbed matt ryan in the 8th and goff in the 12th(even though i have gurley)....

 

i like both as decent values...i think ryan could bounce back and do pretty well...that offense will move the ball...it will really be a matter of how things shake out and whether they score by the ground or air...if things shake out where the running game doesnt deliver a good chunk of the scores then ryan could be getting them and return back to mvp form(maybe not that good....but a good #1 starter)

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