dbent1856

Huddle seeming unreliable

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:07 PM, dbent1856 said:

I get that fantasy websites are just information, but the "experts" on the huddle seems to hardly ever get lineup advice right. they tell me to sit Alex Collins and play Keelan Cole and then Collins goes off. They say sit Carlos Hyde and then he goes off.

They tell me pick up Phillip Lindsay,..."He is the waiver wire pick to have" then he sucks. They rate Running backs such as Derrick Henry high and show Clement as the guy to play this week in flex.

None of the info has been helpful. Taking their advice seems to be getting me killed in my league.

Does anyone have any advice on how I can strengthen this segment? I am looking for some good weekly advice for lineup decisions.

What do you guys think?

 

2

 

Within any group of players, there will always be those that are inconsistent and  for a variety of reasons may not play in line with what their history suggests along with what their opposing defense does. And since we try to project for anyone that has any significance, we will project for them all and someone will get that/those players that underperform. Trust me, an inordinate amount of research and analysis goes into projections/rankings. We don't just feed an algorithm and go with averages like many other places. I consider every player individually against stats and non-quantifiable aspects like team dynamics, schedule, health, coaching, weather, etc.

 

It is not a guessing game, projecting player performances is establishing what is the most likely outcome - of many potential outcomes - based on everything that can be gleaned about that player and his matchup. I even assign confidence factors to show strongly you can rely on the projection. Within the game write-up, I try to give some information as to how the projection was made. So that you can read the game write-up and hopefully think "okay, so I see where that projection came from." I cannot go into depth as I would like since writing up 16 games and I already use up all the available time doing what I do. But the research and analysis are there even if I don't go into great depth in the write-up.

 

There are always players that underperform and someone will own him.  Trust me - I hate that more than you. I just constantly redefine and readjust the perception of players and try to determine how I can be more accurate if it is possible. I've done it for 22 years.

 

I have zero problem being asked to explain anything. I had a reason for everything that I did.

 

Alex Collins Week 3 - I projected him for 60 rush yards, 1 TD and a catch for ten yards.

 His actual was 68 rush yards, 1 TD and 3 catches for 6 yards. 

I am not seeing the problem with that. I wish I could be that accurate all the time.

 

Keelan Cole - I projected five catches for 80 yards and a TD. He ended with five catches for 40 yards and no TD.

 

As I wrote:

Quote

The biggest weakness has been the secondary that already allowed three wide receivers to log 100 yards and score. CB Malcom Butler is better than many but both DeAndre Hopkins (6-110, TD) and Kenny Stills (4-106, 2 TD) turned in big efforts from the split end that Donte Moncrief plays. But Will Fuller (8-113, TD) had an even better game last week from the flanker like Keelan Cole.

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Cole was coming off a 7-116-1 game versus NE.  I got the catches right but he lacked as good of yardage as I expected based on what he had done and what TEN had allowed. A touchdown catch can be a very iffy thing. That is one play out of the 53 their offense ran that day.

 

For Carlos Hyde, I projected his for 50 rush and 1 TD and a reception for 10 yards. I also projected a rushing score and 40 yards for Tyrod Taylor. Hyde's actual was 98 rush and 2 TD and 2 catches for 5 yards. The biggest deviation from what I saw happening was that Tyrod Taylor was benched in the second quarter. You can give his rush TD to Hyde since Mayfield only ran twice for a two-yard loss. And no one respected Taylor's passing so they would play closer to the line and watch Hyde more as the main threat. Mayfield changed that. The defense dropped back - not enough as it ended up - and defended the pass and allowed a better game for Hyde.

 

In the first half – with Tyrod Taylor – Hyde was 4-46 and 2-5 receive. With Mayfield in the second half, he ran for 51 yards and scored both TDs and had no catches. My 60 total yards and 1 TD was based on a full game with Taylor (again with a rush TD projected for him). Had Taylor remained, my projections would have been closer. But now that Mayfield is there, I absolutely will factor in what that impact will most likely be. I had no way of knowing of the QB swap but I feel strongly that  my projections were very good based on what I could know. Hyde ended up almost exactly what I had projected for him and what I thought Taylor would rush for.

 

Phillip Lindsay is a great waiver wire pickup. He is also perhaps one of the biggest surprises I have ever seen in all my years. A RB that ends up as the primary that no one knew. He was not on the DEN depth chart like that. There was nothing but Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman talk all summer. No one saw that coming. But once it was recognized, he is the one to own between he and Freeman.

 

Week 2 had him with 107 yards on 14 carries. He was gaining 5.0 YPC in Baltimore before he punched that guy and was ejected in the first half. No way of knowing he would be ejected. I think it is early to say he sucks when he already had a 100-yard game and only played in 2 full games.

 

As far as rating Derrick Henry high, I projected him for 30 rush yards and one catch for ten last week. He actually rushed for 57 yards so he was 17 yards better than I expected. I was slightly low on him. I projected him for 50 yards and 1-10 rcv against HOU in Week 2 and he ended with 56 rush, 0 rcv so I was only four yards off.

 

Corey Clement was projected for 70 rush, 1 TD and 5-40 rec. His actual was 56 rush, 0 TD and 3-19.  Wendell Smallwood was given a bigger role than expected had had the touchdown. With Jay Ajayi out for the first time and Carson Wentz back for the first time, there was going to be less to go on to accurately predict what happened in the backfield. Clement scored the week before in TB and had 55 yards as a receiver. Smallwood only had one game this year and he was held to 30 total yards and just one catch. His usage was unusual based on all else that had happened.

 

And all this is also going on with only two games played this season – not a ton of information to use to determine likely outcomes.

 

I completely understand the frustration of players not performing to expectations. I’m not sure of the issues with all the above which were very accurate in most instances and had extenuating circumstances impact them when they were less accurate.

 

Bottom line – my saying has always been that the definition of an expert is someone who can explain at length why they were wrong. I will always stand 100%  behind my projections and every single one had a reason born of a lot of research and analysis. This is what I do and I take it ridiculously seriously.  I love to explain why I come up with what I do and have zero problems with discussing anything that doesn’t seem accurate because I have already thought about it and tried to learn from it.

 

Always going to have dropped TDs, guys that step out on the one-yard line, ejections, injuries and a hundred reasons why a game changes direction. But I’ll stand behind everything I do and happily explain how it was derived. I’d have answered this earlier, but WED is my sleep day since I stay up until 4 AM doing the game predictions and projections.

 

I won’t always be perfect. But I guarantee it won't be from a lack of effort.

 

 

 

 

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I do think the player swings in the weekly Rest Of Season rankings are often a bit extreme. One example from this week, Matt Ryan has a 5/0 week, and now he's the #3QB ROS?

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The Bills blowing out the Vikings in an away game tells you all you need to know about week 3.

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I have been around here for quite sometime and I rarely post.  Some may call me a “lurker”.   This is the only site I pay for I enjoy the reading articles/projections and have been for many years. In my eyes what The Huddle along with other sites provide you with information what you do with that information is entirely up to you, use it don’t use it.  To blame The Huddle or another site for your poor showing is wrong.  Take responsibility for your draft/moves and look in the mirror for someone to blame.  

Edited by Busby
Missed a word
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6 hours ago, dbent1856 said:

Also want to add my first ever drafted player was John Elway so I have been playing forever and probably know as much as anyone. I won so many leagues with Priest Holmes and Reggie Wayne it was ridiculous. I justwish if I am going to pay 35 bucks they actually have me winning advice e which I have yet to capitalize on. 

2

So why not start your own site and see how successful you become?  If ANY site that specializes in this stuff could see the future and accurately predict what's going to happen, well, they probably wouldn't have a website as they'd be in Vegas making millions. 

 

Stupid post!!  

Edited by Shorttynaz

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If you are using this forum to make your choices you ain't doing it right.  Use this website for advice followed by reasoning.... then make your own judgement.  What joy does one find in letting others set their line up?  I suggest a daily fantasy application if you just enjoy drafting.  

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I just love people that won’t take ownership of their own fantasy decisions and want to blame the site they use....I read up between 3 different sites and the MAKE MY OWN DECISIONS...if they are wrong then it is my fault!

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And btw, I used the huddle again this year for my drafts. I am in first place with total points in both of my $ leagues. Guess it is just how you use their info that makes a difference.

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:07 PM, dbent1856 said:

I get that fantasy websites are just information, but the "experts" on the huddle seems to hardly ever get lineup advice right. they tell me to sit Alex Collins and play Keelan Cole and then Collins goes off. They say sit Carlos Hyde and then he goes off.

They tell me pick up Phillip Lindsay,..."He is the waiver wire pick to have" then he sucks. They rate Running backs such as Derrick Henry high and show Clement as the guy to play this week in flex.

None of the info has been helpful. Taking their advice seems to be getting me killed in my league.

Does anyone have any advice on how I can strengthen this segment? I am looking for some good weekly advice for lineup decisions.

What do you guys think?

 

I wouldn't consider myself expert but I think it's common sense that if there's a newcomer, especially a receiver, you don't start him until they've had a few weeks of production.  Cole, Ridley, etc.  And guys in a timeshare, like Lindsay.  If you have more established guys even if not as exciting that makes more sense to me than zeroing out on your newcomer the 2nd week, when he gets 1 target or 5 carries. 

 

The pickups are speculative for everyone. Generally speaking I like explosive players with high YPCarry or receivers with high targets.  Guys getting 3 targets and one 40 yd score aren't reliable, like Robby anderson.  I dunno, that's just my general sense. 

Edited by purplemonster
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Perfect example. In my huddle right now, they show Brandin Cooks projects to get 9 points and Antonio Callaway projected to get 18.

They say I should play Ekeler over Carlos Hyde. They show Trey Burton as the number 5 TE. This is week 4. So, I pay $34 bucks and am supposed to play Antonio Callaway over Brandin Cooks right now? Free ESPN projects Callaway with 10.1 points and Cooks at 15.1 points. I don't pay for that advice. All I am really saying is no one in their right mind would play Antonio Callaway over Brandin Cooks right now. If I am wrong, roast me on Sunday afternoon.

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9 minutes ago, dbent1856 said:

Perfect example. In my huddle right now, they show Brandin Cooks projects to get 9 points and Antonio Callaway projected to get 18.

They say I should play Ekeler over Carlos Hyde. They show Trey Burton as the number 5 TE. This is week 4. So, I pay $34 bucks and am supposed to play Antonio Callaway over Brandin Cooks right now? Free ESPN projects Callaway with 10.1 points and Cooks at 15.1 points. I don't pay for that advice. All I am really saying is no one in their right mind would play Antonio Callaway over Brandin Cooks right now. If I am wrong, roast me on Sunday afternoon.

 

I would

 

Callaway is going against Oakland, who cannot pressure the QB, and with Landry drawing a bunch of attention I see Callaway having a big day.

 

Cooks is going up against the Vikings who are a far superior defense than Oakland and they just got embarrassed by the Bills. You better believe Minnesota is going to show up to play.

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I don’t think they should call themselves Experts! They should call themselves Expert or Professional guessing! I get what everyone is saying  , but just do your homework! And compare stats on the player, and who he playing that week, weather comes into play - any many things! But I don’t call them experts! Go with your guy after you do the research. And if you always  go by the so called experts every week , maybe you should not play fantasy football! It is supposed to be fun!

Edited by BassMaster

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2 minutes ago, BassMaster said:

I don’t think they should call themselves Experts! They should call themselves Expert or Professional guessing! I get what everyone is saying  , but just do your homework! And compare stats on the player, and who he playing that week, weather comes into play - any many things! But I don’t call them experts! Go with your guy after you do the research. And if you always  go by the so called experts every week , maybe you should not play fantasy football! It is supposed to be fun!

  1. technically, they are experts. They're professionals... they've been paid money by repeat customers, meaning they have a successful track record or they'd be out of business.
  2. the guys here don't buy subscriptions for raw data, they do it for individual insights provided by the experts who have unique and useful insights.
  3. your strawman attack on the users here "maybe you should not play fantasy football" is the argument of the weak minded.

so much wrong with your superficial critical post.

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20 minutes ago, LordOpie said:
  1. technically, they are experts. They're professionals... they've been paid money by repeat customers, meaning they have a successful track record or they'd be out of business.
  2. the guys here don't buy subscriptions for raw data, they do it for individual insights provided by the experts who have unique and useful insights.
  3. your strawman attack on the users here "maybe you should not play fantasy football" is the argument of the weak minded.

so much wrong with your superficial critical post.

Slow your roll! I did not post it as a attack on anyone! I payed my  Money for this site just like everyone else! But to call me names is not the wright way to go about it!!! I was trying to point out to do your your own research then make a decision on your own and not always take the EXPERTS advise ! Maybe you should read imy post again! And to any of the EXPERTS who did read my post, I did not mean sarcasm!

Edited by BassMaster

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1 minute ago, BassMaster said:

Maybe you should read imy post again!

i'm trying

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10 minutes ago, BassMaster said:

Slow your roll! I did not post it as a attack on anyone! I payed my  Money for this site just like everyone else! But to call me names is not the wright way to go about it!!! I was trying to point out to do your your own research then make a decision on your own and not always take the EXPERTS advise ! Maybe you should read imy post again! And to any of the EXPERTS who did read my post, I did not mean sarcasm!

 

I am advising you to spellcheck.  

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14 hours ago, Copeingwithfailure said:

If you are using this forum to make your choices you ain't doing it right.  Use this website for advice followed by reasoning.... then make your own judgement.  What joy does one find in letting others set their line up?  I suggest a daily fantasy application if you just enjoy drafting.  

 

Is your username calling on irony?  Because if it's intentional, it really tickled my funny bone this morning.  :lol:

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Anyone heard of Jake Ciely? Supposedly one of the most accurate Draft Rankers in the Biz.

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