michaelredd9

Chubb or Johnson?

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If I had to chose, it would be Chubb. He is going to take a huge chunk of the 20 carries Hyde average. 

 

Duke Johnson should also return to last years PPR machine form, now that he can be played more as a change of pace back like he is used to. Before they were almost giving away their play call by putting Johnson in.

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Reason being look at the volume Hyde was getting, coupled with the fact that Haley loves running his offense through a workhorse RB.

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Make no mistake, this is Chubb's backfield now. They didn't draft him to watch Duke Johnson. Duke will still have a roll on the team but Chubb is definitely the guy.

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40 minutes ago, League_Champion said:

Make no mistake, this is Chubb's backfield now. They didn't draft him to watch Duke Johnson. Duke will still have a roll on the team but Chubb is definitely the guy.

well, Chubb better perform because he's the most expensive 2nd round RB ever at a cost of $21m

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4 hours ago, LordOpie said:

well, Chubb better perform because he's the most expensive 2nd round RB ever at a cost of $21m

 

Didn't cost me a dime

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I'm guessing that Chubb slides into Hyde's role and Duke goes back to being a ppr machine.

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10 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Haley loves running his offense through a workhorse RB.

 

 

Le'Veon Bell is big, can run, can catch, and can pass block.  He is the most complete running back in the NFL.  Every coach in the NFL would use him as a workhorse.  Previous to Bell, Haley used a RBBC with the exception of his first year in Arizona:

 

2007 Arizona OC

Edgerrin James 324 carries

 

2008 Arizona OC

Tim Hightower 143 carries

Edgerrin James 133 carries

 

2009 KC HC

Jamaal Charles 190 carries

Larry Johnson 132 carries

 

2010 KC HC

Thomas Jones 245 carries

Jamaal Charles 230 carries

 

2011 KC HC

Thomas Jones 153 carries

Jackie Battle 149 carries

Dexter McCluster 114 carries

 

2012 Pitt OC

Jonathan Dwyer 156 carries

Isaac Redman 110 carries

 

I think it'll be an even 50/50 split.  During the draft process, there were concerns about Chubb's pass blocking and his abilities as a receiver.  I doubt he'll ever see the field in passing situations.  And I think they'll give Duke some early down work because of his experience.  Duke will probably get more fantasy points because of his receptions and receiving yards.  Chubb might have the higher ceiling because he might be able to win the feature back role if he does well.  It wouldn't surprise me if they get the exact same amount of work in this first game to keep both running backs happy. 

 

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1 minute ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Le'Veon Bell is big, can run, can catch, and can pass block.  He is the most complete running back in the NFL.  Every coach in the NFL would use him as a workhorse.  Previous to Bell, Haley used a RBBC with the exception of his first year in Arizona:

 

2007 Arizona OC

Edgerrin James 324 carries

 

2008 Arizona OC

Tim Hightower 143 carries

Edgerrin James 133 carries

 

2009 KC HC

Jamaal Charles 190 carries

Larry Johnson 132 carries

 

2010 KC HC

Thomas Jones 245 carries

Jamaal Charles 230 carries

 

2011 KC HC

Thomas Jones 153 carries

Jackie Battle 149 carries

Dexter McCluster 114 carries

 

2012 Pitt OC

Jonathan Dwyer 156 carries

Isaac Redman 110 carries

 

I think it'll be an even 50/50 split.  During the draft process, there were concerns about Chubb's pass blocking and his abilities as a receiver.  I doubt he'll ever see the field in passing situations.  And I think they'll give Duke some early down work because of his experience.  Duke will probably get more fantasy points because of his receptions and receiving yards.  Chubb might have the higher ceiling because he might be able to win the feature back role if he does well.  It wouldn't surprise me if they get the exact same amount of work in this first game to keep both running backs happy. 

 

 

I think 50/50 is overly optimistic for Johnson's outlook.  Hyde has been dominating the carries all year, and they just dropped him for Chubb.

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18 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

I think 50/50 is overly optimistic for Johnson's outlook.  Hyde has been dominating the carries all year, and they just dropped him for Chubb.

 

 

Duke Johnson has played 42% of snaps on the year.  He played 51% and 47% of snaps in the last 2 weeks.  I doubt those percentages will go down with Hyde's departure.  Chubb is a rookie who likely has holes in his game.  50% of snaps might be Chubb's ceiling.  If he fails at pass protection, it could be a 70/30 split in Duke's favor.  Duke has a PFF pass block grade of 77.3 and Chubb has a PFF pass block grade of 5.5 (Chubb's pass block grade is based on only 3 snaps).  They don't want a rookie quarterback getting hit because of the inexperience of a rookie running back.

 

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47 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

 

2010 KC HC

Thomas Jones 245 carries

Jamaal Charles 230 carries

 

 

 

Good post.  When I read that Haley likes to use one back, this year at KC immediately came to mind.  He utilized Jones more than Charles to a detriment in 2010.

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6 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Duke Johnson has played 42% of snaps on the year.  He played 51% and 47% of snaps in the last 2 weeks.  I doubt those percentages will go down with Hyde's departure.  Chubb is a rookie who likely has holes in his game.  50% of snaps might be Chubb's ceiling.  If he fails at pass protection, it could be a 70/30 split in Duke's favor.  Duke has a PFF pass block grade of 77.3 and Chubb has a PFF pass block grade of 5.5 (Chubb's pass block grade is based on only 3 snaps).  They don't want a rookie quarterback getting hit because of the inexperience of a rookie running back.

 

 

51% of the snaps =/= 50% split on touches, just to be clear.

 

Hyde got 120 touches compared to Johnson's 33... Not even close to 50% of the workload no mater how you try to spin it with snap count.  It's going to be 70/30 Chubb.  And lemme guess, you whiffed on Chubb and got Duke? :P 

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11 hours ago, kdko said:

 And lemme guess, you whiffed on Chubb and got Duke? :P 

Cmon man.  Regardless of how the timeshare works out in Cleveland, Mr. Rodgers supported his position on factually accurate rationale.  Assuming that Chubb immediately takes Hyde's role because Haley likes workhorse backs comes across as faulty conjecture.  I'm getting Rashard Penny deja vu.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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35 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

51% of the snaps =/= 50% split on touches, just to be clear.

 

Hyde got 120 touches compared to Johnson's 33... Not even close to 50% of the workload no mater how you try to spin it with snap count.  It's going to be 70/30 Chubb.  And lemme guess, you whiffed on Chubb and got Duke? :P 

 

I think you are being overly optimistic on Chubb's role.  He isn't going to 100% take over Hyde's role.  He is a rookie.  He is probably bad at both pass protection and as a receiver which makes him a complete liability on pass plays.  They will be telegraphing that it is a run play if he is on the field.  I think he'll start out getting 12-15 carries with 0-1 receptions.  He will have to do well on pass plays to get more than that.  If Duke starts getting 4-6 receptions which is likely, he will outproduce Chubb for fantasy purposes.  Not all touches are created equal.

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5 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I think you are being overly optimistic on Chubb's role.  He isn't going to 100% take over Hyde's role.  He is a rookie.  He is probably bad at both pass protection and as a receiver which makes him a complete liability on pass plays.  They will be telegraphing that it is a run play if he is on the field.  I think he'll start out getting 12-15 carries with 0-1 receptions.  He will have to do well on pass plays to get more than that.  If Duke starts getting 4-6 receptions which is likely, he will outproduce Chubb for fantasy purposes.  Not all touches are created equal.

 

Yeah, Chubb isn’t the best pass blocker out there. That’s for sure

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10 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

I think you are being overly optimistic on Chubb's role.  He isn't going to 100% take over Hyde's role.  He is a rookie.  He is probably bad at both pass protection and as a receiver which makes him a complete liability on pass plays.  They will be telegraphing that it is a run play if he is on the field.  I think he'll start out getting 12-15 carries with 0-1 receptions.  He will have to do well on pass plays to get more than that.  If Duke starts getting 4-6 receptions which is likely, he will outproduce Chubb for fantasy purposes.  Not all touches are created equal.

 

+1

 

Unless Chubb shows improvement in pass blocking and good catching ability, he will not exceed Hyde's touches.

 

Chubb could surprise with production given the matchup this week or other weeks against poor defenses.

 

I got lucky in one league in picking up Chubb.  If owners missed on Chubb, Duke as the next pickup.  In PPR Duke was picked up first.

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Duke Johnson listed as the starter today.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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59 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Duke Johnson listed as the starter today.

Not surprising and he'll probably see more snaps and touches than Chubb. 

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It's not even close to 50% split.  14-4 at the moment.  Oh, and Chubb for the TD baby!  Time to admit without spinning snap counts that this is Chubb's backfield.

Edited by kdko

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37 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

It's not even close to 50% split.  14-4 at the moment.  Oh, and Chubb for the TD baby!  Time to admit without spinning snap counts that this is Chubb's backfield.

 

 

They definitely are featuring Chubb in the run game.  I knew as soon as I saw Chubb score the touchdown that you'd be here gloating.

 

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a good showing.  Chubb should see a little improvement every week.

 

I almost benched CMac for Chubb.

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4 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

They definitely are featuring Chubb in the run game.  I knew as soon as I saw Chubb score the touchdown that you'd be here gloating.

 

 

That wasn't even close to gloating :D  Merely facts in my post.

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17 minutes ago, XFlash said:

I almost benched CMac for Chubb.

:lol: you should consider something other than FF ;)

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26 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

:lol: you should consider something other than FF ;)

 

it was only a thought.  I did not do that insane action.:hscratch:

 

I just considered it for a few moments.:pc:  CMac stats to date are not great and do not look promising ROS.  CMAC hopefully turns it around 2nd half of the season.

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