Should Shurmur have kicked the extra point?

[michaelredd9]

People who study analytics have been advocating for years to go for a two point conversion when down 8 points late in the game.  NFL coaches are hesitant to deviate from tradition.  But Doug Pederson went for 2 a few weeks ago.  And now Pat Shurmur has done it.  What is the right call?

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by michaelredd9

[League_Champion]

That was some of the worst play calling down the stretch that I've ever seen. Once again Shurmer is in over his head. I remember him from his days in Philly. He was an idiot then and obviously hasn't changed.

[Bobby Brown]

Not a bad call to go for two there.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

Yep

[stevegrab]

I understand the mathematics behind it, but I just don't agree it is the right call. It assumes all things are equal for all teams, which is not true. I'd say the 95% or so used for XP conversion is true, but I don't think all NFL teams are equal in the 50% rate of making 2P conversions. The "math" assumes that if you go for it twice, and the odds are 50% you will convert one. That is like saying if I flip a coin and it comes up heads it will definitely be tails the next time.

 

I also think if you really want to win, kick the XP on first TD, then go for 2 IF/WHEN you can actually score the 2nd TD. That way you don't have the negative of missing the 2P try when you still need to get the ball and score another TD. I do understand though that precludes having 2 chances to convert 2P try when you miss the first. 

 

I feel most fans (and players) who get on board just like the "aggressive and gutsy call" they don't understand the math, or believe it.  Or its the old school vs. new school and analytics that drive their views. 

 

My thought is basically if you need to score 2 TDs and need want to get 15 points, go for 2 on the 2nd TD. 

[soopanuts]

32 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

It assumes all things are equal for all teams, which is not true.

This ^. I get the math behind it too, but you also have to take your team's performance to date and in the game into account. For me and the team I follow year round, that changes it to 30/70 in favor of not making it. For this year's Rams, 70/30 in favor of making it. Good call for the math, just not a smart call for the team IMO.

[Bobby Brown]

Meh.  Beckham dropped the conversion attempt and they scored on the next 2 pt conversion so it didn't effectively hurt them. And the coin flip gamblers fallacy discussion doesn't take into account the benefit of succeeding on the first 2 point conversion (which effectively gives you a lead with another TD).

 

I especially think it makes more sense for teams that are sruggling, like the Giants.  The Giants still probably enter overtime as a considerable underdog to the Falcons. They were trying to win in regulation.  The overall risk reward statistical metrics say it was the right decision.

Edited October 23, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[michaelredd9]

Another thing people who study analytics question is why coaches seem to think that you need to pass the ball when you need 2 or 3 yards.  Empirical data clearly shows that running the ball is more effective.  In the case of the Giants, this is even more true since Saquon > Eli.