stevegrab

Record vs. points scored disparty

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Just venting and citing some interesting stats, not looking for sympathy or anything like that. 

 

Its been another rough year for me, not scoring well to start and 1-6. Last few weeks I've scored better but had bad luck, lost to the high score (I had second highest), lost by .1 and got -spanked when I faced Hunt but scored in the top half that week. One of the games in our league saw a 5-1 vs. 4-2, the 4-2 team won in an ugly 57-51.5 score. I started looking at the winner's stats, he has the lowest points scored, and lowest points scored against him. (While the two one win teams have the 2 highest points against)

 

Then I check the all play record, he'd be 23-54, my lowly 1-6 would be 30-45-2. I look at his weekly scores and shake my head in disbelief as there's not a single win over 5 points (scores rounded losses bolded) 88-87, 84-79, 84-79, 71-93, 93-101, 85-80, 57-52  

 

If I had played his schedule I'd have the same results first 4 weeks as my only win came when I nearly broke 100, other scores around 75. But these last 3 weeks, I'd have won every time as I've scored much better (104, 102, 90) and that would be a huge difference to be 4-3 instead of 1-6.

 

If I didn't have bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all.

 

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i feel your pain.

one year, I was the top scoring team for total points, but didn't make the playoffs eventho six (of 16) teams go on to the post-season. The following off-season, I convinced the league to switch to "Victory Point" system. I really like VPs! You can get up to 4 points per week... 2 points for a win, 1 for tie, 0 for loss. 2 for scoring in the top 1/3, 1 for a score in the middle 1/3 and 0 for a crap score.

This way, if you're the #2 scoring team that week and you play the #1 scoring team, you still get two points... which is the same points earned by a team that scored very low, but just got lucky playing the lowest score of that week.

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3 hours ago, LordOpie said:

i feel your pain.

one year, I was the top scoring team for total points, but didn't make the playoffs eventho six (of 16) teams go on to the post-season. The following off-season, I convinced the league to switch to "Victory Point" system. I really like VPs! You can get up to 4 points per week... 2 points for a win, 1 for tie, 0 for loss. 2 for scoring in the top 1/3, 1 for a score in the middle 1/3 and 0 for a crap score.

This way, if you're the #2 scoring team that week and you play the #1 scoring team, you still get two points... which is the same points earned by a team that scored very low, but just got lucky playing the lowest score of that week.

 

Yea VP system is the way to go. Been running it for a very long time now and the merits over pure H2H are considerable. For the past few years we tweaked it a bit to award the top 4 scoring teams 2.5 VP's just to put slightly more emphasis on the top weekly performances. VP's really help to take out the fluke of pure H2H while still keeping the fun part H2H offers. I simply cannot recommend trying Victory Point system out strongly enough!

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Interesting idea, thanks guys haven't considered that before. But there's no way it would pass in our league, too many owners opposed to any change they don't come up with, because they think it favors the owner proposing it and screws them. 

 

I know one other season I was having a rough go and found a similar pattern with a team (was actually this same owner). Our schedules are random and set before the draft, and I'm co-commish so I know its nothing shady :)     We also don't often see a situation where a team in the top 3 in points doesn't make the playoffs, plus there is a money pot (from roster move fees, usually $150-200) split by the top 3.  

 

I'll probably get a few more wins, not make the playoffs and be in the bottom half in scoring. 

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9 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

Interesting idea, thanks guys haven't considered that before. But there's no way it would pass in our league, too many owners opposed to any change they don't come up with, because they think it favors the owner proposing it and screws them.

do what I did... go back in league history, find every current owner that missed the playoffs in past years due to bad "luck". Tell them that with VP system they would've made the playoffs and to support your proposal.

Another option is to have 1-2 wild card spots filled by the highest scoring team that didn't make the playoffs via H2H. Your owners might grab that option more easily

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3 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

do what I did... go back in league history, find every current owner that missed the playoffs in past years due to bad "luck". Tell them that with VP system they would've made the playoffs and to support your proposal.

Another option is to have 1-2 wild card spots filled by the highest scoring team that didn't make the playoffs via H2H. Your owners might grab that option more easily

 

Thanks, I might try to do that but generally find little success with rule changes in our league. Doubt we'd add more playoff teams, already have 6 of 12 making it, 3 division winners and 3 WC. 

 

If I didn't follow things so closely and analyze things I wouldn't know I've had such bad luck. The week I won, it was less than 2 points, and our first year using fractional scoring. So I crunched the numbers, and found out I would have lost by 1 point . I was curious if maybe it would have been a tie, that was one of the bonuses to fractional scoring, removing ties. Of course then weeks later I lost by .1 and had no desire to research what would have happened without fractional scoring change.

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Here's my tale of woe (1-6).  Pts ranking for the week in parenthesis.  By over 150, I've had the most PA over anyone else in this league.  Commish won't realign or change ranking system for playoffs.  I've been in this one for over two decades, and it's my only contact with several guys, so I just lump it:

 

Week 1:  134(5) to 155(2) - Doomed no matter who I started
Week 2:  127(9) to 143 (5) - Win if I start Fuller and Graham over Henry and Gronk.  Realizing it was a mistake to draft Henry.
Week 3:  147(2) to 157 (1) - Win if I start Ryan (53) over Fitz (40) or Boyd over Agholor
Week 4:  190 (1) - WINNER WINNER!
Week 5:  137 (5) to 141 (4) - FRUCK YOU DERRICK HENRY. ADIOS.  Cupp out at Half, ouch.
Week 6:  155 (4) to 186 (1) - Win if I start Ravens over Titans D.  Insane.  What was I thinking?
Week 7:  89 (12) to 191 (1) - Bye weeks plus Cupp and Gronk being out take their toll.

 

A couple of changes and I might be 3-4 or 4-3 in spite of getting bukkaked every week.

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2 minutes ago, CowboysDiehard said:

Here's my tale of woe (1-6).  Pts ranking for the week in parenthesis.  By over 150, I've had the most PA over anyone else in this league.  Commish won't realign or change ranking system for playoffs.  I've been in this one for over two decades, and it's my only contact with several guys, so I just lump it:

 

Week 1:  134(5) to 155(2) - Doomed no matter who I started
Week 2:  127(9) to 143 (5) - Win if I start Fuller and Graham over Henry and Gronk.  Realizing it was a mistake to draft Henry.
Week 3:  147(2) to 157 (1) - Win if I start Ryan (53) over Fitz (40) or Boyd over Agholor
Week 4:  190 (1) - WINNER WINNER!
Week 5:  137 (5) to 141 (4) - FRUCK YOU DERRICK HENRY. ADIOS.  Cupp out at Half, ouch.
Week 6:  155 (4) to 186 (1) - Win if I start Ravens over Titans D.  Insane.  What was I thinking?
Week 7:  89 (12) to 191 (1) - Bye weeks plus Cupp and Gronk being out take their toll.

 

A couple of changes and I might be 3-4 or 4-3 in spite of getting bukkaked every week.

 

And I'll add this tidbit:  My two RBs are Zeke and Saquon. 

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4 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

Thanks, I might try to do that but generally find little success with rule changes in our league. Doubt we'd add more playoff teams, already have 6 of 12 making it, 3 division winners and 3 WC.

with 3 WC, maybe propose to change just one of the WC to total points? I'd be disappointed if your leaguemates rejected that because it's such an easy fix. For one thing, it keeps more owners involved. In one of my three dynasty leagues, that's how we have it set up. There's a 2-5 team that is in 3rd place in over all points. Since the top two scoring teams are likely to make the playoffs via H2H, the 2-5 team can fight until the end.

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6 minutes ago, CowboysDiehard said:

Commish won't realign or change ranking system for playoffs.

umm, huh?

In all my leagues, a proposal has to come up for vote with one owner sponsoring the change and another owner 2nd'ing it. At that point, the commish (I'm co-commish in two leagues) cannot stop it from being voted on. We have rules for in-season rule changes (requires something like 85% approval) and off-season changes (simple majority) with required quorum.

So... if your commish has complete control, I'd recommend fixing that first

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Yeah my local league has three teams who are clearly ahead in points scored. Only problem is one of the teams is 2-5, his five losses were all against teams who had their highest scoring week against him.

 

You wouldnt think you could be that unlucky.

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2 hours ago, LordOpie said:

with 3 WC, maybe propose to change just one of the WC to total points? I'd be disappointed if your leaguemates rejected that because it's such an easy fix. For one thing, it keeps more owners involved. In one of my three dynasty leagues, that's how we have it set up. There's a 2-5 team that is in 3rd place in over all points. Since the top two scoring teams are likely to make the playoffs via H2H, the 2-5 team can fight until the end.

 

I have thought about that, last WC is highest total points regardless of record, but again not sure owners would agree. We've had this league for 25+ years, guys just don't like change and some will disagree based on who proposes it. 

 

If the season ended today, all teams with a winning record make the playoffs. If instead we took the team with highest points as last WC, the 4-3 team with 658.4 would be out, replaced by a 3-4 team with 696.2  Those two teams are currently 4/5 in power rankings (on CBS this combines record, points and breakdown/all-play), their point totals are ranked 4/5

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2 hours ago, LordOpie said:

umm, huh?

In all my leagues, a proposal has to come up for vote with one owner sponsoring the change and another owner 2nd'ing it. At that point, the commish (I'm co-commish in two leagues) cannot stop it from being voted on. We have rules for in-season rule changes (requires something like 85% approval) and off-season changes (simple majority) with required quorum.

So... if your commish has complete control, I'd recommend fixing that first

 

Dude...for a while there we didn't even have a rule that says WHO makes the playoffs.  It's generally accepted that the three division winners and then the next three teams are in.  One year, it was the top two teams in every division.  Nobody really makes a stink about it from year to year.  I wrote the commish a private note about it last year (exact same situation for me), which he ignored.  This year I'll post something publicly, but when one division perennially has all the teams that put up the most points (the other three teams in my division are 7-0 and 6-1, 6-1), it might be hard to get the rest of the league to vote on re-alignment (Commish is not in my division).  I'll do it, and we'll see what happens.

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Does a website allow for victory point scoring? Or do you do this all by "hand" on a spreadsheet and just manually input the playoff teams into a standard website when the time comes. 

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4 hours ago, SpinalTapp said:

Does a website allow for victory point scoring? Or do you do this all by "hand" on a spreadsheet and just manually input the playoff teams into a standard website when the time comes. 

 

MFL does....that is what we have been using for years. 

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The best part of VP system is you can manipulate how much of an emphasis you want to place on H2H versus points scored. Traditionally VP scoring awards 2 points for a win and 2 points for big in the top third for scoring each week, 1 point for being middle four, zero for being bottom four. Therefore if you win and finish as a top 4 scorer for the week you get 4 VP's...if you had lost but still top 4 in scoring you get 2. Again, if you would like to place a slight emphasis on top 4 scoring you can adjust points awarded from 2 to say 2.5. 

 

Last season I had the highest point total not only in the division but across the league. However, my H2H record was 7-6. The team with the best record in my division was 9-4 but had around 150 fewer points total. Without a VP system I would have barely been in playoff contention even though my team put up great points....just had some bad beats. It really is the best of both worlds in my opinion.

 

My recommendation: Go back and check the weekly score results from the year and apply the VP scoring to them and see how the league standings would look if you used them. Keep in mind we only use VP scoring for the regular season and to seed for the playoffs. Once, the playoffs start we just go off H2H. 

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19 hours ago, SpinalTapp said:

Does a website allow for victory point scoring? Or do you do this all by "hand" on a spreadsheet and just manually input the playoff teams into a standard website when the time comes. 

 

We use CBS, and if I were going to propose victory points I'd want our current site to be able to do it, or that is another change and change is hard with this league. I don't want to do that kind of stuff by hand, because when we're 2-3 weeks from the end of season teams want to know their playoff chance, which they can figure pretty easily from standings on the web site. The commish will offer some additional detail at times, regarding ties and such. 

 

I took a quick look at CBS and don't see any way to modify the basic H2H setup.

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You researched, killed the draft, and are ready to dominate. Even so, there are so many random things that can screw you. You played against the high point scorer. Your elite player got injured in the first quarter. Your QB/RB1's o-line got decimated by injuries. You didn't hit on any speculative breakout players. You were one waiver priority lower from getting the prized free agent of the year. Then you watch the guy who autodrafted his team win the league because somehow he ended up with Thielen, Gordon, Ertz, Luck, Connor (and you chuckled when autodraft gave him a TE in the 3rd round). Every year I shake my head when I realize the saying might be true - fantasy football is 90% luck, with the other 10% being luck.

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Was talking to my co-commish this week who lost by a few points in the lowest scoring game of the week, he had an inactive Mevlin Gordon in his line-up. I asked him what happened, he says he was out of town. I replied that I thought there was info out early in the week that Gordon might not play, he says nope it was a late thing, only after he warmed up they pulled him. But I swear I read about an injury, limited participant in practice, and might not play at least as far back as Saturday morning. He even says by the time I found out I couldn't change my line-up. I said "you should have the CBS fantasy app on your phone so you can do that", him "meh no bid deal I'm not that concerned."  :blink:  You lost because of a line-up change you could have made (his only backup RB left on bench would have won it), and you don't care?

 

Maybe if I cared less I'd have better luck 

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I assume there is no need for Divisions with VP scoring system. 12 teams play each other round robin and top six make playoffs...yes?

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3 minutes ago, SpinalTapp said:

I assume there is no need for Divisions with VP scoring system. 12 teams play each other round robin and top six make playoffs...yes?

we have two 16-team dynasty leagues, some overlapping owners. we have four divisions with four owners who play each other the first three and last three games of the season. The four division winners make the playoffs, then the two wild cards with the highest VPs. So it's still a significant amount of H2H and division rivalries.

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11 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

we have two 16-team dynasty leagues, some overlapping owners. we have four divisions with four owners who play each other the first three and last three games of the season. The four division winners make the playoffs, then the two wild cards with the highest VPs. So it's still a significant amount of H2H and division rivalries.

Thanks...I am going to propose we flip to this next season

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to be clear, VPs doesn't solve everything, eventho i do prefer it. I just checked one of my leagues... a team that has the 5th highest points-for and 6th highest VPs would get bumped from the playoffs (if they started today) because we use divisions. One guy who's winning his division is in 8th place in points-for and 7th place in VPs

 

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On 10/29/2018 at 4:20 PM, LordOpie said:

we have two 16-team dynasty leagues, some overlapping owners. we have four divisions with four owners who play each other the first three and last three games of the season. The four division winners make the playoffs, then the two wild cards with the highest VPs. So it's still a significant amount of H2H and division rivalries.

 

Victory points also dictate the division winners too, right?  It replaces the standard W-L-T standings that most leagues use. 

 

ETA  Hmm  reading your last post I guess not, division winner is straight H2H.   Does your league actively track and show the VP in the standings,k so owners know where they rank?

Edited by stevegrab

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