Timothy R

Fantasy "experts"

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One day we will all learn to save ourselves some money and go with our guts instead of "experts". Every stinking one...start Mostert start Winston, blah blah blah. Go with your gut. I guarantee it will be correct more than what any expert says. If you are already playing this game then you probably have a good idea what to do. Shame on me mostly for 2 weeks in a row. 

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"Experts" were only advocating to start Mostert if Breida was out.  Winston has been on fire, has great receivers, a bad run game, and a bad defense.  And the Bengals have given up the 5th most points to opposing quarterbacks.  It was a smart start.  But even the best advice is only going to be accurate 70%-80% of the time.  Are you complaining because "expert" advice isn't 100% accurate?  Fantasy football is a fickle mistress.

 

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The fantasy experts also said to start Roethlisberger when he plays at home. Instead I went with my gut to start Winston because he was putting up points regardless of the turnovers and Cincys Def has been pretty soft against the pass. But we see how that worked out. 

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16 minutes ago, buddahj said:

The fantasy experts also said to start Roethlisberger when he plays at home. Instead I went with my gut to start Winston because he was putting up points regardless of the turnovers and Cincys Def has been pretty soft against the pass. But we see how that worked out. 

 

Choosing between Roethlisberger and Winston is a classic example of a safer option vs a high risk/high reward option.  Winston was more likely to throw 400 yards and 3 touchdowns.  But Winston also was more likely to throw 3+ interceptions with the possibility to be benched mid-game.  If my opponent's team was superior to my team, I would have started Winston.  If my team was superior to my opponent's team, I would have started Roethlisberger.  These kinds of decisions might seem obvious in hindsight but they are not obvious.  Some decisions are literally 50/50 so an expert will be wrong half of the time.

 

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Hindsight is always 20/20.  if this game was so predictable it wouldn't be any fun. 

 

 

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I always set my lineup to what I think first and then check with my sources. If they have something different than I do I'll try to find out why. If it's sound advice I consider making a change. Sometimes I follow their advice, sometimes I don't. But ultimately I make it my decision and I live with it. 

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1 minute ago, rajncajn said:

 

Sometimes I follow their advice

 

 

This might be semantics, but you don't follow their advice.  You listen to their advice with an open mind.  Maybe it changes your mind.

 

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On 10/29/2018 at 6:45 PM, drafter said:

 

Hindsight is always 20/20.  if this game was so predictable it wouldn't be any fun. 

 

 

I've been to Green Bay.  I've never seen a girl like the girl in your avatar in Green Bay!  

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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I honestly can't believe there's another post about this garbage. 

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Experts opinions should be used as tools to help you set your lineup, not as the gospel. A lot of times an expert will mention a stat or a comparison I wouldn't have thought of on my own that really helps me out. Most times almost anyone that has played fantasy football a few years could make the picks that the experts do, that isn't what makes them useful to me, it's the extra bits of information you can sometimes glean from them.

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11 hours ago, Timothy R said:

One day we will all learn to save ourselves the trouble of reading a post by a guy who has only one post.

finally, some useful insight!

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1 hour ago, irish said:

I honestly can't believe there's another post about this garbage. 

And it comes from someone that has One (1) post count and just joined to make this post , look at time stamp & joined time  

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Easiest job in the world. They should post a "how did I do last week" article and I bet more often than not the "experts" are wrong....Thats why we all rely on the unfailable opinions from this site! Am I right!

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18 hours ago, buddahj said:

The fantasy experts also said to start Roethlisberger when he plays at home. Instead I went with my gut to start Winston because he was putting up points regardless of the turnovers and Cincys Def has been pretty soft against the pass. But we see how that worked out. 

 

I did the same thing. I thought Rberger would do okay but figured the Steelers probably would run Conner a lot too, and Winston would be throwing way more passes.

 

 

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On 10/29/2018 at 4:27 AM, michaelredd9 said:

 

Choosing between Roethlisberger and Winston is a classic example of a safer option vs a high risk/high reward option.  Winston was more likely to throw 400 yards and 3 touchdowns.  But Winston also was more likely to throw 3+ interceptions with the possibility to be benched mid-game.  If my opponent's team was superior to my team, I would have started Winston.  If my team was superior to my opponent's team, I would have started Roethlisberger.  These kinds of decisions might seem obvious in hindsight but they are not obvious.  Some decisions are literally 50/50 so an expert will be wrong half of the time.

 

 

@buddahj - sounds familiar eh?  :lol:

 

good stuff, MR9.  spot on.

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3 minutes ago, darin3 said:

 

@buddahj - sounds familiar eh?  :lol:

 

good stuff, MR9.  spot on.

Lol yup and that's why I went with Winston. Starting Roethlisberger would've gotten me the win but both our teams scored 30ish points less than we have all season. 

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47 minutes ago, buddahj said:

Lol yup and that's why I went with Winston. Starting Roethlisberger would've gotten me the win but both our teams scored 30ish points less than we have all season. 

 

Ouch.  What a weird season for the Bucs.  

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Expert or not, no one knows for certain. An elite athlete can get his panties in a bunch, and not even play. The undrafted rookie can smash records. The end decisions are on us, and there are no promises. The end result is your reward,  or your fall. Experts said go with this guy, 

and he gets 4 points. The guy i benched did 24. Was that their fault,  nope.. mine. I listen to advice, make MY call at the end of the day. 

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13 minutes ago, Roamingbull said:

Expert or not, no one knows for certain. An elite athlete can get his panties in a bunch, and not even play. The undrafted rookie can smash records. The end decisions are on us, and there are no promises. The end result is your reward,  or your fall. Experts said go with this guy, 

and he gets 4 points. The guy i benched did 24. Was that their fault,  nope.. mine. I listen to advice, make MY call at the end of the day. 

so... life.

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On 10/30/2018 at 12:32 AM, chiefswarpath said:

Easiest job in the world. They should post a "how did I do last week" article and I bet more often than not the "experts" are wrong....Thats why we all rely on the unfailable opinions from this site! Am I right!

 

 

I know that DMD and others here put a lot of work into their advice, but I'm not sure their accuracy is that far and above others. It would be nice to see some analysis showing how they did compared to their projections, and see that on all sites that offer projections or other start/bench info.  

 

I've always thought CBS rankings and projections were garbage, but this week my opponent sat Aaron Jones for Mostert and Watson for Goff, and it cost him 20 points and the game, he lost by 2.  Both moves went against the projections. 

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This is so SIMPLE... don't use the site if you don't feel like you get value... trust your "gut"... trends and analysis be damned... That's your right as a FF team owner. in fact your job as owner is to decide when your gut is right and when you need to trust the guys you pay for their opinions... Me? I like to win and get paid so in my long time membership with the huddle I have done more winning and getting paid using this information than my league mates that do not... I am not a blind faith follower of the rankings but I use their info weekly to help me decide on 50/50 calls all the time. Good luck without the help. 

Sorry to sound harsh but if you expecting 100% accuracy on a projection you are either delusional or just stupid. If the experts could be 100% sure they would be cleaning up in Vegas weekly (and probably killed by the mob for ruining their sports betting industry). They offer an educated opinion, you can either take their advice (good and bad... sometimes) or save your money and just give it to a guy like me at the end of the season... 4 out of 5 years.   

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30 minutes ago, dfv87 said:

This is so SIMPLE... don't use the site if you don't feel like you get value... trust your "gut"... trends and analysis be damned... That's your right as a FF team owner. in fact your job as owner is to decide when your gut is right and when you need to trust the guys you pay for their opinions... Me? I like to win and get paid so in my long time membership with the huddle I have done more winning and getting paid using this information than my league mates that do not... I am not a blind faith follower of the rankings but I use their info weekly to help me decide on 50/50 calls all the time. Good luck without the help. 

Sorry to sound harsh but if you expecting 100% accuracy on a projection you are either delusional or just stupid. If the experts could be 100% sure they would be cleaning up in Vegas weekly (and probably killed by the mob for ruining their sports betting industry). They offer an educated opinion, you can either take their advice (good and bad... sometimes) or save your money and just give it to a guy like me at the end of the season... 4 out of 5 years.   

 

Here's how I looked at "should I pay for The Huddle?"  I used it for many years and never did that great. I took a couple years off, and didn't do much worse. I signed up again for a couple years and again no noticeable change. Maybe I just suck at FF to begin with, or my situation in my only league I play in has me behind the curve with bad keepers. So I stopped paying, and I simply pocket the extra $$, I don't give it to somebody else. The guys in my league were already taking my roster fee and turning it into a loss for me, why take an even bigger loss. 

 

If you've always used The Huddle (or for 10-15 straight) it really is hard to say how you'd do without it. Your impression is you win a lot using The Huddle, more than those in your league who do not use it. Maybe you're just a superior fantasy player than them. 

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I don't pay much attention to the so called "experts". Unless they have a crystal ball they can't tell me who's gonna have a big day. I can look at the same matchups and come to the same conclusions. Not only are they more wrong than right, sometimes they are stone cold idiots. 

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Looks like dressing up as a hindsight champion was a popular halloween costume. 

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