Made a "Fantasy Playoff Primer" article for my league...thoughts?

[turbotooslow]

10 team/.5 PPR/6 pt. TDs

 

I threw this together while bored at work today. Here it is....would love any and all criticism of my evaluation of the teams...

 

****NOTES: This article is not complete, as you will notice. Also, this is a taco league. People take it seriously, but they make fun of me for "knowing everything," so they are clearly only willing to put so much time into this league (so much time = thinking that because Chubb and Michel are currently outside the top 20 that they are worthless....LOL). This is long...but here it is....

 

 

 

 

(4th best team) MORATH’S CREATIVITY (4 studs) (Brees, Gurley, Thomas, Allen all 1’s at their position)

 

Roster:

QB: Brees
RB: Gurley/AP/Adams/Crowell/Murray
WR: Thomas/Allen/Cobb/Shepard
TE: Reed/Njoku
D/ST: HOU/KC
K: Gostkowski/Maher

Boris Chen Ranking Index (lower the better):

Overview:
A fairly stacked team in terms of starting lineup, the RB2 and Flex spots in the lineup are somewhat up in the air. AP is up and down but Adams should continue to see 12-22 touches per game unless the Eagles get blown out early (possible). Mediocre to slightly above average at TE. No bench depth whatsoever. Overall, this team is stacked, but only at the top. A top-heavy team could easily win the championship, but it requires those 3-4 elite players to put up nothing short of elite numbers. If they don’t do that, this team could easily be out in the first round.

Strengths:
QB - Drew Brees. Enough said. Even though the most elite of QBs have put up some duds this year (including Brees), at this point Brees is essentially an automatic 25+ pts.
WR - In terms of the two starting WR roster spots, Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen make for a great fantasy tandem.
Gurley - Enough said.
D/ST - Texans defense is one of the best in fantasy and the team is on absolute fire.

Weaknesses:
RB Depth - You must be thinking, “Really? But Gurley!” Yes, yes, I hear you. Gurley is an automatic fantasy machine and his recent dip in production should NOT worry you. However, the Rams have already clinched a playoff berth. So the question is: will Gurley get any rest before Week 17? That remains to be seen. After Gurley is AP, Josh Adams, Isaiah Crowell, and Latavius Murray. AP is up and down, Josh Adams looks like he could get 20+ touches a game but the Eagles offense is in absolute shambles and probably won’t be playing with the lead too often due to a tough remaining schedule. Murray is essentially a handcuff to Cook unless the Vikings are nursing a late lead. Crowell is...inconsistent at best on a horrible offense.
TE - Reed was a good pickup and could finish the season strong, but his upside is severely capped in this offense. Still, Reed has only one game all year with less than 5.3 fantasy pts (that’s pretty good for the TE position). Njoku is a really good TE, but his fantasy production this year has been up and down.
Bench Depth - If anybody in this starting lineup goes down this team is going down, too. Fast.

Schedule & Player Matchups:

 

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(3rd best team) ZEKE AND DESTROY (4 studs, 2 borderline) (Ben, Zeke, Conner, Hill all 1’s at their position. Ingram and moreso Hilton just outside)

 

Roster:

Roethlisberger
Elliott/Conner/Ingram/Howard
Hill/Hilton/Edelman/Jackson/Thomas
Olsen/Hooper
JAX/PIT
Fairbairn/Butker

 

Boris Chen Ranking Index (lower the better):

Overview
A pretty stacked team with good overall bench depth, this team is benefiting in a major way from Tyreek Hill and TY Hilton’s consistency. Both players have some of the highest upside in the league and are no longer extreme cases of “boom or bust.” Very solid RBs, although Ingram is a bit hard to predict and Howard is essentially droppable. Ben has been playing well on road this year (QB1 numbers at Baltimore and at Jacksonville) and the only two road games remaining are Oakland and New Orleans - both extremely favorable matchups. 

 

Strengths
QB - Big Ben is putting up big numbers and I don’t really see that stopping, although he is one of many “elite” QBs that has and is still capable of dropping a dud (not enough of a risk to consider Big Ben anything but a strength for this team)
RB - Zeke, Conner, Ingram. I’m not even going to list Jordan Howard here. This is arguably the best RB situation in the league, and frankly it’s not really much of an argument. Zeke is consistent, Conner is consistent, Ingram is hard to predict but is nonetheless an every-week high-endRB2 with upside.
WR - Hill, Hilton and Edelman is pretttttty solid. Hill and Hilton seeing consistent volume and Edelman is Edelman (12-17 pts. pretty much guaranteed). 
TE Depth - Olsen and Hooper have been pretty consistent, although Olsen just had a game that exposes his low-floor (2.1 pts). Still, this is a good TE situation given the fact that it is by far the most shallow position in fantasy football.

Weaknesses
Potential to Bust Instead of Boom - Even though it hasn’t really happened yet, and I wouldn’t worry about it too much, Ben and Hill and Hilton have shown in the past that they can put up duds. This is a potential weakness, not a current one.
D/ST - Jaguars are no longer an elite fantasy defense. They are far from it, actually. They do have a seriously easy schedule after Indianapolis this coming week, but look at their recent fantasy points and also consider that they just put up a fantasy goose egg against Buffalo….BUFFALO. 
Bench Depth - This team’s flex is most likely going to be Edelman or Ingram, which leaves a bench of only two productive players: Edelman/Ingram and Desean Jackson. Demaryius and Howard could fill-in, but that is far less than ideal.

Schedule & Player Matchups

 

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(2nd best team) FORMULA FOR FAILURE (4 studs) (Mahomes, Hunt, Hopkins, Thielen all 1’s at their position)

 

Roster:

    Mahomes/Rodgers
    Hunt/Carson/Edwards/Miller/Collins
    Hopkins/Thielen/Boyd/Watkins/Reynolds
    Doyle/Graham
    BAL
    Tucker

 

Boris Chen Ranking Index (lower the better):

Overview: 
This is yet another pretty stacked team, with the studliest of stud QBs, a top-5 RB, two top-5 WRs, an above average TE and plenty of viable options for the RB2 and Flex spots. Almost too many options for these spots, which can be a bad thing at this point in the season because it makes you overthink who to start. But overall, it’s definitely a good thing to have good options. Bench depth with Boyd and Watkins is average - good players but no options beyond these two. This team should have packaged Rodgers and someone else for a stud early in the season...or not drafted a QB high in the first place. Losing Kupp was a huge blow, but he’s found nice replacements in Carson/Edwards/Boyd/Watkins. Overall, the presence of Mahomes and the additions of Carson/Edwards are what takes this team above the previous two.

Strengths:
QB - Patrick Mahomes
RB - Hunt is top-5 and Carson/Edwards are coming on. Carson is getting 15+ carries a game when he is healthy but has virtually no involvement in the passing game. Same w/ Gus Edwards.
WR - Hopkins/Thielen/Boyd is a serious trio. No need to elaborate on this one.

Weaknesses:
RB - What? Didn’t you say RB is a strength? Well, yes. Hunt is a top-5 back, we know this. Ok, he’s clearly a strength. Moving on….Carson and Gus are getting 15+ carries a game, we know this. However, neither is involved in the passing game and their upside is purely dependent on TDs. They get plenty of carries to have nice, high floors, so this isn’t too much of a weakness. We just need to see if these trains can keep rolling...for now, they’re rolling, but both of these backfields have been murky at points this season. Personally, I think they will keep rolling, but this is the fantasy football playoffs, so even the slightest chance of a weakness must be mentioned.

Schedule & Player Matchups

 

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(Best team) BOBA FETT (6 studs, 3 borderline) (Wilson, Chubb, Brown, Jones, Evans, Kittle all 1’s at their position. David Johnson, Sony Michel, and Winston are just outside.)

 

Roster:

    Wilson/Winston/Wentz
    Johnson/Chubb/Michel/Lewis/Brown/Ware
    Brown/Jones/Evans
    Kittle/Brate
    NE
    Crosby

 

Boris Chen Ranking Index (lower the better):

Overview: 
Probably the most stacked lineup in terms of studs. Virtually every starter in the lineup is a 1 at their position, with David Johnson, Sony Michel, and Jameis Winston just outside that threshold. The most elite WR group in the league by far. Good depth at RB, with Michel and Lewis on the bench. However, the bench is top-heavy, as there are two handcuffs and a QB on the bench, so if anything happens to multiple starting RB/WRs...it could be bad. Only team in playoffs w/ elite TE and elite Flex. Overall, this team is the most evenly stacked team of the bunch, just barely ahead of Zeke & Destroy.

Strengths:
RB - Johnson, Chubb and Michel. This isn’t Zeke/Conner/Ingram, but it’s not really that far off. Massive volume for all three.
WR - AB, Julio, Evans. AB and Julio only receivers to record 5+ catches in every game this season. Add in Evans…enough said.
TE - Kittle is one of three elite TE’s along with Ertz and Kelce (throw Ebron in there if you want, but I don’t consider him elite because he is TD dependent. We won’t include Gronk because he hasn’t played the entire year and has underperformed relative to expectations). Brate as a backup is solid.
Bench depth - No matter which QB is starting, there is another QB1 on the bench. Along w/ Dion Lewis, Sony Michel, Cameron Brate, and the handcuffs for Gurley and Hunt, this bench is pretty ok. This team will be absolutely decimated if two RB/WRs go down, but that can be said about any team at the RB/WR positions.

Weaknesses:
QB? - Including this because some league members believe this team has crappy QBs, but having two QB1’s doesn't seem too crappy. Russell is as consistent as they come and his legs give him a boost in production almost every week. Winston is a bonafide fantasy QB1 due to his deep ball and the fact that TB is a super pass happy offense with a horrible defense that makes them play from behind every game. Winston’s leash is longer than its been at any point this year thanks in part to his mistake-free game vs the 49ers last week. TB has absolutely no reason to go back to Fitz, as each QB puts up similar (huge) numbers, but playing Winston has multiple benefits (show other teams what he can do so he can be traded, or plan for him as the future of the Bucs and let him improve his game on the field). 
Bench Depth - A strength, but also a weakness. This bench is top-heavy, with Winston/Michel/Brate being starters on most other teams. After that though, it’s Dion Lewis and a couple of handcuffs. This team is screwed if more than one productive RB/WR on my team goes down.

 

Schedule and Player Matchups:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by turbotooslow

[turbotooslow]

Anybody?

[loaf]

well written

[turbotooslow]

8 minutes ago, loaf said:

well written

Oh, thank you!

[irish]

Really nice of you to do, you must have a ton of extra time on your hands, be pumped about fantasy football or excited about your odds of winning a fantasy title. 

[turbotooslow]

3 minutes ago, irish said:

Really nice of you to do, you must have a ton of extra time on your hands, be pumped about fantasy football or excited about your odds of winning a fantasy title. 

Haha all of the above...I'm the last team listed (Boba Fett) FYI

[stevegrab]

11 minutes ago, irish said:

Really nice of you to do, you must have a ton of extra time on your hands, be pumped about fantasy football or excited about your odds of winning a fantasy title. 

 

Don't forget an understanding employer  

 

Sorry didn't take the time to read it, I'm sure its pretty good and helpful to your league but not of much interest to outsiders.