BeachBum

Home/away predictions

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In his predictions, it seems DMD comments a lot on players past stats in home vs away games. ("Woods has all his TDs in away games")

 

Do you think this as a repeatable trend? And why would a good player only have good games at home or away? 

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There are many players where venue just doesn't matter but others who are consistent enough that it merits consideration. One of my favorites this year was Juju Smith-Schuster. Here are his splits:

 

Home

 

Wk
Opp Cat CYds CTD
2 KC 13 121 1
4 BAL 4 60 0
5 ATL 4 34 1
8 CLE 4 33 0
10 CAR 3 90 1
13 LAC 6 49 0
15 NE 4 40 0
17 CIN 5 37 1
  Avg 5.4 58.0

0.5

 

 

Away

 

Wk
Opp Cat CYds CTD
1 @CLE 5 119 0
3 @TB 9 116 0
6 @CIN 7 111 0
9 @BAL 7 78 0
11 @JAC 8 104 0
12 @DEN 13 189 1
14 @OAK 8 130 2
16 @NO 11 115 0
  Avg 8.5 120.3

0.4

 

 

If you ignore Week 2, JSS never had a 100-yard game at home and yet had all but one 100-yard game in away venues.

 

When I played daily this year, I'd almost always use JSS when he was on the road.

 

It isn't the only consideration of course, but for some it is relevant.

 

I've tried to reason out why some are that way but it's hard to say. Defenses play better at home? Most players do better at home. Maybe home defenses are better against Antonio Brown and it let's JSS have a bigger game. Tight ends almost always do better at home.

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Makes easy splitting for the Chargers that play 16 road games a year. Right?

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